Rare earth elements and the green economy

Will Lack of Rare Earths Kill the Green Economy.. Get Ready to DIE!!!! Or Has Concern Over Rare Earths Jumped the Shark? Eamon Keane BE, ME eamon.keane1@ucdconnect.ie September 2010

Abstract A brief survey of the rare earth landscape is undertaken. Following this it is shown that concern over rare earths limiting the development of wind and electric vehicles is overdone because there are clear alternatives to neodymium magnets. A shortfall of terbium and europium, however, may slow adoption of energy efficient lighting. Comments and corrections are welcome. I’d like to thank in particular Gareth Hatch for his websites TerraMagnetica, raremetalblog, and techmetalsresearch which are a rich source of information on rare earths. Also, John Hykawy from Byron Capital Markets provided much of the inspiration for this. 2

Table of Contents Abstract ................................................................................................................................................... 2 Table of Contents .................................................................................................................................... 3 Table of Figures ....................................................................................................................................... 3 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 4 2. Rare Earth Backrgound ................................................................................................................... 5 3. Rare Earth Consumption ................................................................................................................. 7 4. Refining ......................................................................................................................................... 12 5. Will There Be Enough? .................................................................................................................. 13 6. Will the shortfall strangle the green economy? ........................................................................... 15 6.1. Dysprosium ........................................................................................................................... 15 6.2. Rare Earths and Wind ........................................................................................................... 15 6.3. Rare Earths and Hybrid/Electric Cars .................................................................................... 16 6.4. Rare Earths and Energy Efficient Lighting ............................................................................. 17 References ............................................................................................................................................ 17 Table of Figures Figure 1: Google results for “rare earth elements” ................................................................................ 4 Figure 2: Top 6 Rare Earth Elements [46] Figure 3: Game Over for Whom? [47] ............................. 4 Figure 4: Currently Producing Regions of the World (i.e. Not America)................................................. 5 Figure 5: Baiyun-Obo, the Black Heart of the Green Economy?............................................................. 6 Figure 6: Global REE Production 1986-2009 ........................................................................................... 6 Figure 7: Rest of World Demand for RE Salts, Oxides & Metals ............................................................. 7 Figure 8: 2008 Estimated Rare Earth Flows ............................................................................................ 7 Figure 9: Indicative rare earth flows for 2010 ........................................................................................ 8 Figure 10: REE Composition by End Use ................................................................................................. 9 Figure 11: Approximate Percentage Content of Current and Prospective Ores .................................... 9 Figure 12: Europium, Terbium & Dysprosium Content of Current and Prospective Ores .................... 10 Figure 13: Nechalacho Revenue Breakdown at September 2010 Prices .............................................. 11 Figure 14: Kvanefjeld Flow Sheet [20] .................................................................................................. 12 Figure 15: Forecast Global REE Demand 2010-2014 ............................................................................ 13 Figure 16: Surpluses and Deficits by Element in 2014 .......................................................................... 13 Figure 17: Surplus and Deficit for Dysprosium and Terbium in 2014 ................................................... 14 Figure 18: Demagnetisation Curve With and Without Dysprosium ..................................................... 15 Figure 19: Annual Wind Additions ........................................................................................................ 16 Figure 20: Historical and Projected Electric Drivetrain Sales ................................................................ 17 3

1. Introduction Rare earths captured the popular imagination a year or two ago. Since then a bonfire of reports, presentations and analyses have been published, with many generating more consulting fees than light [1-45]. Figure 1 shows the uptrend in google entries for “rare earth elements”, and obviously if it doesn’t exist on google, it is irrelevant. Figure 1: Google results for “rare earth elements” The rare earth story is compelling. By near unanimous consent, the narrative is that REEs are “essential” [38], “indispensible” [30], or “crucial” [37] to every aspect of the green economy from wind turbines to electric vehicles to energy efficient lighting. Further spice is added by those who see REEs as the “New Great Game” [2]. Many military components require REEs from the M1A2 Abrams tank’s samarium cobalt magnet for navigation to the DDG-51 Hybrid Electric Drive Ship Program’s reliance on neodymium magnets for electric assist propulsion [10]. And China controls the supply. This leads to much hand-wringing, some based on mercantilist sentiment, others geo- strategic, and yet more on envy of China’s autocratic regime. Figure 2: Top 6 Rare Earth Elements [46] Figure 3: Game Over for Whom? [47] I’ll discuss how “essential” REEs are later, however now I’ll add more fuel to the fire with yet another summary of the REE situation. 4

2. Rare Earth Backrgound A proviso is required for any figures shown here. Rare earth statistics are always “estimated”, the data is sketchy (not least because some comes from China), and so most data comes with a +-15% band. Figure 4 shows the regions where supply currently comes from [31, 33]. Figure 4: Currently Producing Regions of the World (i.e. Not America) Figure 5 shows a picture from Google Earth of the mine at Baiyun-Obo [9]. The surrounding area has become poisoned, as the ever reliable Daily Mail reports [5]: “I was the first Western journalist to set foot inside the mine….. the new-found wealth has come at an appalling environmental price, turning the town and the surrounding areas into a poisoned, arid wasteland littered with unregulated refineries where the rare-earths are extracted from rocks…The land is scarred with toxic runoffs from the refining process and pock-marked with craters and trenches left by the huge trucks that transport the rocks across ice and mud. Rusting machinery lies scattered along the valley floor, giving it the appearance of a war zone.” China has used this environmental damage as a pretext for stricter export quotas. Production quotas for environmental reasons might be entertained by the WTO, however export quotas are not. In previous year, as a result of the cheaper costs of Chinese REE production, and due to China flooding the market, other operators shut down. This is shown in Figure 6 (two data sets were fused: 1986- 2002 from [11] and 2002-2009 from [44]). Figure 7 shows Chinese production along with the declining export quotas. A figure for 2010 expected demand from the west is also shown [39, 42]. It is important to stress that the Chinese export quota is just for the upstream metals. Downstream, processed materials such as Neodymium- Iron-Boron magnets can still be exported. This is part of an effort to encourage foreign manufacturers to locate in China. As Figure 7 shows, however, this year there may be a shortfall in demand for raw REEs in the West. This will be met, at least in part, by drawing down stockpiles [12]. Additionally, some enterprising Chinese may smuggle some out of the country. 5

Figure 5: Baiyun-Obo, the Black Heart of the Green Economy? Figure 6: Global REE Production 1986-2009 Global REE Production 1986-2009 (kt/year) 130 120 China Former USSR 110 Malaysia India 100 Brazil Australia 90 US 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1993 1997 2001 2005 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1994 1995 1996 1998 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 6

Figure 7: Rest of World Demand for RE Salts, Oxides & Metals Rest of World Demand for REE Salts, Oxides & Metals (i.e. not finished products) [kt/year] 130 120 110 100 Chinese Export Quota (Raw REs Only) 90 ROW Demand (incl. 2010 estimate) 80 Estimated Chinese Mine Output 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 3. Rare Earth Consumption So where do all those REEs go? Figure 8 shows the estimated flows for 2008 [15]. Although Chinese consumption is shown as 60%, this is only for the raw elements. Some of the downstream products will still be exported to the west. Japanese industry is a large consumer of REEs, and so they are almost beside themselves over the REE situation [41]. Figure 8: 2008 Estimated Rare Earth Flows Figure 9 presents a chart I made showing the estimated 2010 global production capacity for each element (from Byron Capital Market’s John Hykawy [18]), together with the rare earth usage demand sectors projected by Lynas for 2010 [15]. Christian Hocquard, an economist at BRGM, put together an excellent and comprehensive presentation on rare earths in May 2010 [15]. The breakdown by application for magnets and phosphors comes from that presentation. 7

Figure 9: Indicative rare earth flows for 2010 8

Figure 10 shows the data in brackets on the right hand side of Figure 9 in a more readable fashion [15]. Figure 10: REE Composition by End Use REE Composition By End Use 100% 90% Other 80% Gd 70% 60% Sm 50% Tb 40% Eu 30% 20% Dy 10% Pr 0% Y Nd La Ce Figure 11 shows the breakdown of ores for most elements for currently producing mines and the assays for mines which are mostly still fishing for capital [18, 39]. Figure 11: Approximate Percentage Content of Current and Prospective Ores Approximate Percentage Content of Current and Prospective Ores Currently Producing Considered Feasible to Produce Before 2015 100% 90% 80% 70% Yttrium 60% Dysprosium 50% Terbium 40% Europium 30% Neodymium 20% Praesodymium 10% Cerium 0% Lanthanum 9

You may have to squint a bit to see the components of dysprosium, terbium and europium. They are shown more clearly in Figure 12. Figure 12: Europium, Terbium & Dysprosium Content of Current and Prospective Ores Europium, Terbium & Dysprosium Content of Current and Prospective Ores 7% Currently Producing Considered Feasible to Produce Before 2015 6% Europium 5% Terbium 4% Dysprosium 3% 2% 1% 0% Looking at Figures 9-12, a couple of observations are evident:  If the demand for magnets were to double, from the current 31.9kt to 63.8kt, and a 5% dysprosium content is assumed, additional dysprosium demand of 1.6kt would be required. The ore with the highest dysprosium content is Dubbo, at 2%. Therefore, in order to satisfy demand, the other 98% must be mined also. In the case of Dubbo, this would release onto the market: 16kt lanthanum, 30kt cerium and 11kt neodymium. Hence a market for an additional 50% of cerium would have to be found. Based on the prices in Figure 9, while dysprosium provides 13% of the mine’s revenue, cerium provides 31%. So, for the mine to be viable, either growth in the use of cerium is required or else the price of dysprosium must appreciate. For example, if the price of dysprosium triples to $900/kg, then the share of dysprosium in overall revenue increases to 31%.  If the demand for phosphors doubles, from the current 8.1kt to 16.2kt, and a 4.6% terbium content is assumed, additional terbium demand of 373 tonnes would be required. The only mine with any appreciable amounts of terbium is Nechalacho, at 1.8%. Nechalacho only plans to produce 5kt [18]. Hence this would provide 90 tonnes. The breakdown of revenue is better for the specific ore at Nechalacho. This is shown in Figure 13. That still leaves 283 tonnes of terbium required (373-90). The next highest is Dubbo, at 0.3%. To output 0.283kt of terbium, a market for a stonking 94kt of other rare earths is required, or about 75% of 2009 demand. 10

Figure 13: Nechalacho Revenue Breakdown at September 2010 Prices Nechalacho Revenue Breakdown at September 2010 Prices Yttrium Dysprosium Lanthanum 5% 11% 11% Terbium Cerium 19% 28% Neodymium 19% Europium 4% Praesodymium 3% 11

4. Refining Bertram Boltwood, 1905 [45]: “In point of respectability your radium family will be a Sunday school compared with the rare earth elements, whose chemical behaviour is simply outrageous. It is absolutely demoralizing to have anything to do with them” Refining (or reduction in mining lingo) is very important. Figure 11 shows the composition for 14 different ore compositions. Each one requires an individual, detailed flow sheet, their own reagents and refining processes. An investor could do well to read the book “Extractive Metallurgy of the Rare Earths” [11]. This is not your father’s extractive metallurgy. Whereas with gold, for example, you might just add a bit of borax and soda and out it comes, rare earths are much more troublesome. I won’t bore you with the details. Figure 14 shows an example flow sheet. It is dirty, requires lots of water, heaps of chemicals and is very capital intensive. Capital intensive processes can be prone to cost overruns and delays, which should be borne in mind for any companies with mine-to-market strategies. Figure 14: Kvanefjeld Flow Sheet [20] 12

5. Will There Be Enough? There have been several forecasts made for future demand. Approximate data was derived from Byron Capital Market’s own estimate [18] and the data contained in Oakdene Hollins’ May 2010 report “Lanthanide Resources and Alternatives” for others [34]. Figure 15 displays these demand forecasts in the context of historic demand, using global mine production as a proxy. Figure 15: Forecast Global REE Demand 2010-2014 Forecast REE Demand 2010-2014 (kt/year) 200 Byron Capital Markets 180 Lynas 160 IMCOA 140 GWMG 120 Actual 100 Linear (Actual) 80 60 40 y = 3.6078x - 7127.9 20 R² = 0.891 0 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 From Figure 15 it can be observed that while the range of projections is 160-200kt/year, if demand follows its historic pattern, it would only reach 140kt/year. Faster demand growth is expected principally due to the requirements of the “green economy”. Based on their respective assumptions about which mines became operational, and those mines’ constituents, Figure 16 shows the respective surpluses and deficits forecast. Figure 16: Surpluses and Deficits by Element in 2014 Surpluses and Deficits in 2014 (kt/year) 35 30 GWMG 25 20 IMCOA 15 Byron Capital Markets 10 5 Lynas 0 -5 -10 -15 13

Terbium and dysprosium are displayed on their own in Figure 17 for clarity. Figure 17: Surplus and Deficit for Dysprosium and Terbium in 2014 Surplus and Deficit for Dysprosium and Terbium in 2014 (kt/year) 0.2 0 Terbium Dysprosium -0.2 GWMG -0.4 IMCOA -0.6 Byron Capital Markets Lynas -0.8 -1 From Figure 16, it can be seen that one element about which hands need not be wrung is cerium. This is good news for, from Figure 9, glass additives, automotive catalysts and polishing powder. In all but Lynas’ conjecture, lanthanum will be fine also. This is reassuring for NiMH batteries, mischmetal for flint and ceramics. But what about those pesky elements terbium and dysprosium? GWMG, for example, forecasts a deficit of 800 tonnes for dysprosium, or half what is consumed currently. IMCOA projects a deficit of 200 tonnes of terbium, or 67% of 2010 demand. Will they strangle the green economy in its crib? 14

6. Will the shortfall strangle the green economy? 6.1. Dysprosium Dysprosium is essential to give neodymium magnets resistance to demagnetisation at high (120- 180°C) service temperatures. The seminal 1984 paper announcing neo magnets was recently republished [40]. It contains Figure 18 which shows the demagnetisation curve contained in [40]. The effect of dysprosium is to weaken the magnet slightly (y axis), but to increase its intrinsic coercivity significantly (x axis). In enclosed spaces where it is difficult to cool – such as motors in cars – this is very important. However there is still uncertainty as to the mechanism by which dysprosium imparts this higher intrinsic coercivity [48], and a greater understanding may allow for reduced use of dysprosium. Figure 18: Demagnetisation Curve With and Without Dysprosium 6.2. Rare Earths and Wind Vestas, which had a 36% market share of the European 2010 H1 offshore installations [49], is stated by the New York Times to use dysprosium in its upcoming direct drive model [50]. However this is likely a design oversight, because in an excellent article at renewable energy world [51], it is stated of wind generators:“operating temperatures inside the generator rotor must be limited to a maximum of 80°C in order to retain magnetic properties”. Dysprosium will boost this range to 120-180°C, and thus the article implies that other operators do not require dysprosium, indicating that Vestas can adapt. Direct drive generators increase the reliability of turbines as they reduce the number of parts by up to 50% [52]. This is very useful for offshore turbines where maintenance is costly and there are narrow weather windows for servicing. Whether Permanent Magnet Generators (PMGs) increase power efficiency is debatable. Adolfo Robello of Indgar’s study comparing traditional DFIGs with the permanent magnet variety concluded [51]: “The study was performed for a client and results clearly indicated that the DFIG combination showed superior total efficiency performance over the entire 15

speed range.” Nevertheless, PMGs as an engineering solution are very elegant and more compact than their counterparts. The Chief Technology Officer of Siemens thinks they are “the future” [52]. However wind companies are all fully aware of supply issues, and are reluctant to move to China as they would be forced to partner with a Chinese company. There are many figures quoted regarding how much neodymium a wind turbine contains. I am going to go with what renewable energy world [51] says: “Industry sources quote, for instance, that the 60 kW fast speed electric motor fitted in a Toyota Prius hybrid vehicle contains at least 0.5 kg of NdFeB magnet material. For a PM-type generator fitted in a 5 MW direct drive wind turbine, these same sources quote a figure of up to 200 kg of NdFeB per MW power rating, around one tonne per machine. This is a much higher quantity compared to the relatively light and compact fast speed systems.” Two-hundred kg NdFeB per MW translates into approximately 70kg Nd2O3/MW, or 70 tonnes per GW. Up until now, very few turbines have used permanent magnets, with demand of only 3 or 4 tonnes [17], suggesting present demand of less than 100MW per year. Figure 19 shows the historical and projected wind turbine additions [53, 54]. In 2014, if half the wind turbines were PMG, a requirement of 2.1kt/yr of neodymium oxide would be required (70*30). From Figure 9, this is 10% of current neodymium production capacity. Wind turbine demand for neodymium is highly unlikely to have a 50% market share by 2014, as it takes time to build factories and road test the technology. 20% may be a realistic figure, which only entails a requirement of about 1kt/yr. Furthermore, there is always a backstop technology – the traditional DFIG – which can, and I argue will, step in should any shortfall in neodymium appear. Figure 19: Annual Wind Additions Annual Wind Additions (GW/year) 70 60 50 GWEC Projections Historical 40 30 20 10 0 1996 1997199819992000 200120022003 2004200520062007 200820092010 2011201220132014 6.3. Rare Earths and Hybrid/Electric Cars From the quote above [51], electric vehicles require “at least 0.5kg NdFeB” for a 60kW motor. Using 0.6kg NdFeB for a 60kW motor, this translates to a requirement of 10g NdFeB/kW, or 3.5gNd2O3/kW. The limiting material here will be dysprosium, which is added at about 5% by weight [55]. Hence this translates to a requirement of 0.5g Dy2O3 /kW (600*0.05/60). 2009 production capacity of 1.6kt dysprosium would hence allow for approximately 3.2billion kW of motor (1.6*1000*1000*1000/0.175). A million cars, at an average 70kW motor, require 0.07bn kW, or 2% 16

of dysprosium supply. Figure 20 shows the historical sales of hybrid electric vehicles [56]. In 2014, electric sales of 3.5m vehicles may require 7% of dysprosium production capacity. Figure 20: Historical and Projected Electric Drivetrain Sales Historical and Projected Electric Drivetrain Sales (million units/year) 4 3.5 Historical 3 2.5 Approx Projection for HEVs 2 + PHEVs + Evs By Goldman 1.5 Sachs 1 0.5 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Furthermore, Hitachi, on September 10th 2010, announced they have developed an alternative motor with ferrite which “works at almost the same performance level - but with power consumption running at 10 percent lower” [57]. It still has to be scaled up to the 50kW size, but in time it will. Furthermore, there is the same technology was used in the EV-1 and is used in the Tesla Roadster [58] - the humble AC motor. 6.4. Rare Earths and Energy Efficient Lighting In fluorescent light bulbs, the red, green and blue phosphors contain rare earths. The red phosphor is almost entirely yttrium and europium. The blue phosphor contains approximately 10% terbium, while the blue phosphor contains less than 5% europium [6]. The DOE has introduced a standard for fluorescent lightbulbs. Its analysis shows that at most 11% of global terbium, europium and yttrium supply would be required to meet the standard in the United States in 2012 [6]. This is a significant amount, in the region of 30 tonnes terbium and 30 tonnes europium, which will clearly be in short supply if Figure 17 is correct. A more detailed analysis of what sector has the greatest utility for a short supply is required. From Figure 9, it can be seen that fluorescent lamps account for half of phosphor REE demand, with the rest being screens. It thus seems very likely that energy efficient lighting will have to curtail its projected rapid growth, at least until a mine with high enough terbium and europium is found. Neo materials’ CEO suggests they have found just such a mine, with “very high concentrates of terbium and dysprosium” [59]. 17

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Rare earth elements and the green economy

by Eamon Keane

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