Real Estate Asset Investment Trend Indicator

Real E t t
R l Estate
ment Trend Indicator
Asset Investm
Belgium 2013

Key finding for 2013
gs

Ninety-five percen of participants see Belgium as an attractive or very
nt
attractive location for real estate investments.
n

Uncertainty in the capital markets in 2013 could support real estate
investment activity
i t t ti ity.
The Belgian real e
estate transaction market is seen as robust by a
majority of marke participants.
et

The t
Th strongest sell groups are expected to be residential real estate
t ller t dt b id ti l l t t
ortunity/PE funds and other international funds.
companies, oppo

The strongest buyer groups are expected to be insurance companies/
pension funds, re
esidential real estate companies and banks.

Limited availabilit of senior debt funds are the significant barrier;
ty
Increased enforce ement is the preferred way to deal distressed loans.
Retail properties will target for investors office properties declined
investors,
significantly in im
mportance.

The preferred reg
gions are Brussels (office), Antwerp (retail) and
Ghent (residentia
al).

Agenda

Real Estate Asset Investment
Trend Indicator
Belgium 2013

About the trend ind
dicator 2013

Market outlook for Belgium 2013

Investment strategy for Belgium 2013

European outlook fo 2013
or

Real Estate
Asset Investment Trend Indicator
Belgium 20 3
l i 2013

Our trend indicator covers a broad ra
ange of investor groups in Belgium

Trend indicator: real estate investment market The different type of investor
groups surveyed:
► The trend indicator is based on a survey of 20 companies that have been active
t ► Banks
in the Belgian property market in recent years. ► Closed-ended real estate funds
► The survey focuses on two main areas: ► Real estate stock
► Assessment of the Belgian real estate market for the year to come.
o corporations/REITs
► Institutional investors
► Outlook on the strategies which Belgian investors will pursue in the coming
► Investment companies
p
year.
year
► Opportunity/private equity funds
► In addition to Belgium, this survey was conducted simultaneously in 14 other
► Insurance companies
European countries.
► Housing companies
► Other investment vehicles

Background Objectives Method
► Ernst & Young Real Estate has conducted ► Assessment of the Belgian real estate ► The trend indicator is based on a survey
this survey in Belgium since 2011. investment market for the year to come.
r conducted by the Economist Intelligence Unit in
► 20 investors reported on their ► Outlook on the strateggies which Belgian November and December 2012.
expectations for the coming year. investors will pursue in the coming year.
n ► The feedback from the interviews forms the
results of the real estate trend indicator.

January 2013 Page 6 Real Estate Asset Investme Trend Indicator Belgium 2013
ent

The same survey was conducted in other European countries

European trend indicator: real estate assets investmen
nt
► For the first time, the survey now has participants from 15 European countries.
► All surveys took place in November and December 2012.
► Across Europe, feedback was gathered from more than 500 co
ompanies who are
active in the real estate market in these countries.

Participating countries
► Austria ► Luxembourgg ► Spain
p
► Belgium ► Netherlands ► Sweden
► France ► Poland ► Switzerland
► Germany ► Russia ► Ukraine
► Italy ► Turkey ► United Kingdom

ent

A clear majority views Belgium as an attractive investment location …
n

Belgium’s attractiveness as a location for real estate in
nvestments
Key messages
► A clear majority (95%) views Belgium
as an attractive or very attractive
70%
location to invest in real estate for
2013. The trend has turned more
favorable since the last survey
(2012: 84%).

25%

5%

Very attractive Attractive Less attractive

Original question – “How do you rate Belgium’s overall attractiveness as a location for real e
estate investments in 2013?“
ent

… particularly compared with other E
European countries

Belgium’s attracti
iveness as a location for real estate investments
Key messages
in a European com
mparison
► Compared with other European
countries, 85% survey participants 50%
rate B l i
t Belgium as an attractive or very
tt ti
attractive investment location (2012:
35%
58%).
► Compared to last year the perception
of Belgium in the European context
has obviously improved.
10%
5%

Very attractive Attractive Less attractive No response

Original question – “How do you rate Belgium’s attractiveness as a location for real estate in
nvestments in 2013 compared with other European countries?”
ent

With capital markets braced for uncertainty in 2013 …

Key messages
Fear of high inflation in the medium term will drive
investors toward the real estate market 50% 30% 20% ► Fear of high inflation (80%) drives
demand for real estate (2012: 69%).
The Eurozone sovereign debt crisis will increase
investments by European investors in the real estate 35% 45% 10% 10% ► Increase in European investments in
markets
real estate markets due to Eurozone
Due to lower loan-to-value ratios, demand for mezzanine crisis (80%).
financing will increase in 2013 45% 25% 5% 20%
► Increasing demand for mezzanine
There will be an increase in M&A activity in the real financing (70%).
estate sector in 2013
30% 35%
% 15% 20%
► Increase in M&A activities (65%,
The capital market in 2013 will be attractive for real 2012: 42%).
20% 40% 15% 25%
estate IPOs and equity capital increases
► Very attractive capital market for
real estate IPOs in 2013 (60%,
Agree Rather agree Rather disagree Disagree
2012: 36%).

* In some cases no answers were provided by the
respondents, which is not shown in the graph.
Thus, the total might deviate from 100%.

Original question – “Which of the following statements about the real estate capital market d you agree with?”
do
ent

… the Belgian real estate market could prosper

Key messages
Basel III regulation will m
make real estate loans less
► Basel III will reduce the attractive for banks and lead to greater restraint in the
d 20% 35% 30% 15%
mortgage business
attractiveness of the mortgage
business for banks (55%, 2012:
(55%
The commercial mortgage backed securities market will
46%). revive in 2013 20% 35% 25% 20%
► CMBS will revive in 2013 (55%,
Supply in the real estate market will increase in 2013
2012: 38%). (maturity of structured debt, d
disposal of non-performing 40% 10% 35% 15%
loans,
loans liquida
ation of open-ended funds)
► Decreased expectations for supply in
the real estate market will increase Due to Solvency II regulations, insurance companies and
in 2013 (50%, 2012: 54%). pension funds increasingly act as debt providers for real
t 30% 20% 35% 15%
estate investments in the future
e
► Less insurance companies/pension
funds are expected to act as debt
providers due to Solvency II in 2013
(50%, 2012: 58%).

Original question – “Which of the following statements about the real estate capital market d you agree with?”
do
ent

The Belgian real estate transaction m
market …

Key messages
Green building standards will play a more important role
25% 50
0% 15% 10% ► Green building standards will remain
with respect to existing investment properties
important as an investment criterion
(75%,
(75% 2012: 76%)
76%).
Overall, transaction volume in 2013 will exceed the level
20% 45% 20% 15% ► Significant increase in transaction
seen in 2012
volume in 2013 (65%, 2012: 19%).

The average size of real estate deals will increase in 2013
g ► Growing deal size in 2013
35% 20% 15% 30%
(55%, 2012: 50%).
► Minor rise in activity of international
Investment activity by international real estate
investors will increase compared to 2012 25% 30% 25% 20% investors.



Original question – “Which of the following statements about the Belgium’s real estate transa
action market do you agree with?”
ent

… is seen as robust by a majority of m
market participants

Key messages
There will be more commmercial real estate portfolio
► More portfolio deals in the commercial deals in 2013 compared to 2013 20% 35% 30% 15%
real estate sector (55%, 2012: 53%).
► AIFM regulations lead t consolidation
l ti l d to lid ti The
Th proposed AIFM Directi will l d t i
d Di ctive ill lead to increasing
i
15% 40% 35% 10%
consolidation in the real estate funds industry
e
in the fund sector (55%).
► Less than majority expect revival of Given the limited amoun of prime stock available,
nt
investors will shift the focus to more risky real
eir 30% 15% 45% 10%
more risky investments (45%). estate investments

► Speculative project developments are
not widely anticipated (40%). Speculative project develo
opments will return in 2013 20% 20% 40% 20%


Original question – “Which of the following statements about the Belgian real estate transact
tion market do you agree with?”
ent

Price trend expectations vary greatly depending on location …
y

Key messages Office Retail
► Prices for office buildings in prime
55% 55%
locations will increase (60%) or will 60%
remain stable (30%) (2012: increase 55%
35%, no change 42%). %
45% 40%
► Price levels for retail buildings in 35% 35%
35% 30% 30%
secondary locations will be very 30%
attrative (increasing 55%, 2012: 25%
31%),
31%) stable 40% 2012: 38%).
40%, 38%) 20% 20%
15%
► Price stability is expected for office 10%
5%
(45%) and retail buildings (40%) in
secondary locations (2012: office 35%,
retail 38%)
38%). Increase No chan
nge Decrease Increase No change Decrease
► In peripheral areas, respondents Prime Secondary Peripheral areas

anticipate stable price levels for office
(55%) and retail buildings (55%) in
2013 (2012: office 38%, retail 34%).

Original question – “How do you expect purchase prices to develop in 2013 based on the typ of use and location?”
pe
ent

… and type of use

Residential Hospitality Key messages
► A significant majority of respondents
60% 60% expect stable development of prices for
55% premium residential locations
50% 50
0%
45% (60%, 2012: 48%).
► Respondents assume a stable develop-
35%
30% 30% 30% ment of prices for the hospitality sector
25% 25% in prime (50%, 2012: 19%), secondary
20%
15% 15% 15% 15% (50%, 2012:
(50% 2012 48%) and peripheral areas
d i h l
(60%, 2012: 43%).
5%
► Fewer repondents assume an increase
in prices for premium residential (25%,
Increase No change
g Decrease Increase No ch g
hange Decrease
2012: 32%) and hospitality (30%
(30%,
Prime Secondary Peripheral areas 2012: 43%) properties.


pe
ent

January 2013 Page 16 Real Estate Asset Investment Trend Indicator Belgium 2013
e

The Industrial sector is seen as stable

Key messages Industrial
► A clear majority of respondents
anticipate a stable price level for 70% 70%
65%
industrial buildings in prime (70%),
secondary (70%) and peripheral areas
(65%).

25%
20%
15%
10% 10%
5%

Increase No chang
nge Decrease
Prime Secondary Peripheral areas

g

pe
ent

Which seller groups will be the most active in Belgium in 2013 …

Seller groups
Key messages
Residential real estate companies 35% 45% 20% ► Residential real estate companies
would continue to remain the most
Opportunity/PE funds 20% 60% 20%
active seller group again in 2013
2013.
Other international funds 45% 30% 25% ► Opportunity/PE funds will be
significantly more active in 2013.
Banks 20% 55% 25% ► Continuing last year‘s trend, banks
would continue to play active to
Corporates (non-property) 10% 65% 25%
moderate role as sellers.
REOC/REITs 5% 60% 35% ► Open-ended funds will play a more
cautious role as sellers in 2013.
Closed-ended funds (real estate) 30% 30% 40%

Public sector 15% 40% 45%
Insurance companies/pension
funds
10% 45% 45%

Open-ended funds (real estate)
O d df d ( l t t ) 20% 30% 50%

Active Moderately active Cautious
Original question – “Which seller groups do you think will be active in Belgium in 2013?”

ent

… and who will be the buyers in Belgium?

Buyer groups
Key messages
► Insurance companies/pension funds, Insurance companies/pe
ension
funds
25% 60% 15%
residential real estate companies and
banks will remain among the most Residential
R id ti l real estate comp i
l t t panies 50% 30% 20%
active buyer groups in 2013.
Banks
B 25% 55% 20%
► Closed-ended funds (real estate)
and international are expected to be Opportunity/PE funds 35% 30% 30%
less active on the buy side in 2013.
REOC/REITs 25% 40% 35%

Open-ended funds (real es
state) 25% 40% 30%

Private/family office 15% 50% 35%

Sovereign wealth funds 10% 45% 45%

Other international funds 5% 50% 40%

Closed-ended funds (real es
state) 30% 20% 50%

Active Moderately active Cautious
g
Original question – ”Which buyer groups do you think will be active in Belgium in 2013?”

ent

Limited availability of debt fundings a the most significant barrier to
are
successful transactions in 2013 …

Transaction impediments
Key messages
Limited availability of senior debt funding 65% 15% 10% 10% ► Again, limited availability of senior
debt funds (80%, 2012: 72%) and
availability of junior debt funding
Level of equity required 50% 20% 25% 5% (70%, 2012: 50%) will be the
greatest impediments for deal flows.
Limited availability of junior debt funding 25% 45% 20% 10% ► Price mismatch between buyers and
sellers will be another major barrier
j
for transactions (75%, 2012: 46%).
Price mismatch between buyers and sellers
35% 40% 20% 5% ► Minority (35%) assume the
introduction of new laws and
New laws and regulations regulations to act as hurdle to
10% 25% 50% 15%
successful transactions.
Agree Rather Agree Ra
ather disagree Disagree

Original question – “Do you agree or disagree that the following will be impediments to Belgium's deal flow in 2013?”

ent

… and increased enforcement is the p
preferred way to deal with
distressed loans

Approaches to dea
aling with distressed loans
Key messages
► Increased enforcement (65%, 2012: Enforcement 45% 20% 20% 15%
31%) and a prolongation of the
repayment period (65% 2012: 65%)
(65%,
will be the preferred ways to deal
with distressed loans. Ex
xtend repayment period 10% 55% 20% 15%

► Consensual restructuring of deals
continues to play an increasingly
p y gy
minor role in 2013 (35%, 2012: Debt-for-equity swaps 25% 30% 35% 10%
46%).

Replacement of real estate asset managers 25% 30% 25% 20%

Consens
sual restructuring deals
15% 20% 45% 20%


g
Original question – “Which actions do you expect banks to take regarding distressed loans in Belgium?“
n

ent

The following types of use will be pop
pular …

Strong or moderate investment focus
Key messages
► Retail properties will have the
highest focus for investors (25%,
30% 30% 2012: 19%)
19%).
25% 25% 25% ► Office buildings declined
significantly in importance from last
20%
year, but continue to be one of the
15% top investment p
p priorities (
(50%,
,
2012: 80%).
10%
► Residential buildings also declined
significantly in importance from last
year (40%, 2012: 62%).

Strong Moderate

Office Retail Residential Other

Original question – “Which types of use are you particularly focusing your investments on in 2013 compared with last year?“

ent

… and not so popular with investors in 2013

Low or no investm
ment focus
Key messages
► Half of repondents will have no
investment focus on office buildings
in 2013 (50%, 2012: 8%)
(50% 8%).
50%

40%
4

30% 30% 30%

20%
15%

0%

Low No focus

Office Retail Residential Other

g
Original question – “Which types of use are you particularly focusing your investments on in 2013 compared with last year?“

ent

Brussels and Namen/Namur will be th most sought after destinations
he
among office investors in 2013; demand for retail will be strongest in
Antwerp…

Office and retail focus
Key messages
► Brussels (35%, 2012: 58%) and
Namen/Namur (30%, 2012: 12%)
35% attract the highest investor demand
30% 30% 30% for offices in 2013.
25% 25% 25% 25% ► Mixed trend for the preferred
destination for retail investment.
20%
► Antwerp (30%) are the most
15% 15% anticipated cities for retail
10% investments.
► Altogether, differences in retail
location demand have shrunk in
comparison to previous years.
Office Ret
tail
Brussels Namen/Namur Liège/Luik Antwerp Ghent Mons/Bergen

Original question – “Which locations are you particularly focusing your investments on in 2013 compared with last year? “

ent

… and Ghent will again be the preferr target among residential
red
investors in 2013

Residential and “no focus“
Key Messages
► Again, Ghent (30%) will be the
preferred target for residential
45%
investments (2012: 30%)
30%).
► Apart from Brussels, investor‘s
35% 35%
demand for residential properties
30%
seems to be equally distributed.
25% 25% 25% 25% 25%
► Overall,
Overall there is no clear investor 20% 20%
focus on any property type for any of
the major cities in Belgium.
5%

Resid
dential No focus
Brussels Nammen/Namur Liège/Luik Antwerp Ghent Mons/Bergen

g
Original question – “Which locations are you particularly focusing your investments on in 2013 compared with last year? “

ent

The main exit channels in 2013

Planned exit strategies
Key messages
► Trade sales have gained significant
importance in acting as the preferred
35% exit channel for the investor (35%)
(35%).
► Mutual funds have lost relevance in
the current scenario (10%).
25%
► Closed-ended funds still remain one
20% of the preferred exit strategies
(25%).
10% 10%

2013
Real estate operating companies/REITs Mutual funds Closed-ended funds Trade sale
e Other

Original question – “What exit strategies do you have planned (more than one answer possib
ble)?“

ent

Summary

e

Summary of participants’ perceptions

Outlook for Belgium
Attractiveness ► A significant majority of respondents expect stable
development of prices for premium residential locations
► A clear majority view Belgium as an attractive or very
y (60%, 2012: 48%).
attractive real estate investment location for 2013 (9
95%,
2012: 84%). Seller/buyer groups
► Residential real estate companies (80% 2012: 88%) and
(80%,
► Compared with other European countries, survey
opportunity/PE funds (80%, 2012: 58%) will be among the
participants rate Belgium as an attractive or very attr
ractive
most active sellers in 2013.
investment location (85%, 2012: 58%).
► Insurance companies/pension funds (85%, 2012: 73%) and
Real estate financial/capital market
residential real estate companies (80%, 2012: 69%) will
► Fear of high inflation drives demand for real estate (8
80%, remain among the most active buyer groups in 2013.
2012: 69%).
Greatest deal impediments
► Increase in European investments in real estate marke due
ets ► Limited availability of senior debt funds (80%, 2012: 72%)
to Eurozone crisis (80%). and junior debt funds (70% 2012: 50%) will be the greatest
(70%,
Real estate transaction market impediments for deal flows.
► Green building standards remain important as an Bank actions to handle distressed loans
investment criterion (75%, 2012: 76%).
► Increased enforcement (65%, 2012: 31%) and a prolon-
► Significant increase in transaction volume in 2013 (65%
5%, gation of the repayment period (65%, 2012: 65%) are
(65%
2012: 19%). preferred ways to deal with distressed loans.
Purchase price expectations
► Prices for office buildings in prime locations are expec
cted to
increase (60%, 2012: 35%).
ent

Perceptions of the Belgian real estate m
market

Outlook for Belgium
Real estate use types Exit strategies
► Retail properties will have the highest focus for inv
vestors ► Trade sales have gained significant importance in acting
(25%, 2012: 19%). as the preferred exit channel for the investor (35%).
► Office buildings declined significantly in importance from ► Mutual funds have lost relevance in the current scenario
last year, but continue to be one of the top investmment 10%).
10%)
priorities (50%, 2012: 80%). ► Closed-ended funds still remain one of the preferred exit

Preferred regions strategies 25%).

► With regard to office p p
g properties, Brussels (35%, 20
, ( , 012:
58%) and Namen/Namur (30%, 2012: 12%) show the
highest investor demand for 2013.
► Antwerp (30%) are preferred cities for retail investm
ments
in 2013.
► Again, Ghent (30%, 2012: 30%) is the preferred target
for residential investments.

ent

Real Estate Asset Investment
Trend Indicator Europe 2013

e

Executive Summary

Outlook Europe
Attractiveness Purchase price expectations
► The vast majority of countries are rated as attractive or ► The growth potential for prime offices is recognized in most
very attractive by market participants. countries.
► Non-Eurozone countries are currently seen as more ► Retail prices are expected to increase or at least remain
attractive than euro countries than countries inside the stable in many prime locations.
currency zone. ► Price trends for residential real estate are generally seen as
► Spain and Italy are viewed with caution
caution. very promising and even stable in peripheral locations
locations.

Real estate capital market Seller and buyer groups
► In almost all countries, the Eurozone crisis and fear of ► Most active sellers in 2013: opportunity/PE funds, banks
inflation is expected to stimulate transaction activity. and closed-ended funds.
► N
New laws and regulations (e.g. B
l d l ti ( Basel III and Solvency II)
l dS l ► M t active b
Most ti buyers i 2013: opportunity/PE funds, private
in 2013 t it /PE f d i t
are expected to impact upon real estate financing. investors and family offices.

Real estate transaction market Investment focus
► Most investors anticipate a rise in transaction volume −
p ► Generally, investors will be less focused on office properties
y, p p
fostered to an extent by international investors. in 2013. Strong interest is seen in only a few countries.
► Green-building standards are set to play an important ► Demand for retail properties is mostly seen as strong to
role in almost all countries surveyed. moderate.
► Speculative project developments are set to return ► Very strong demand is expected for residential real estate in
slowly in many markets
markets. most countries
countries.

ent

Some non-Eurozone countries are perceived by their market participants
as being particularly attractive

Key messages Attractiveness o your market
of In comparison to other countries
► Some non-euro countries (Sweden, 58% 42% Sweden 50% 46% 4%
Turkey and to an extent the UK) are 60% 40% Turkey 45% 50% 5%
particularly attractive. This might be
attractive 71% 29% Luxembourg
L b 53% 41% 6%
a reflection of the continuing 1% 58% 41% Germany 69% 30% 1%
difficulties in the Eurozone. Belgium
5% 70% 25% 35% 50% 10%
► Compared to other countries, 8% 60% 32% Switzerland 44% 42% 14%
market participants in Germany, the
Germany 9% 63% 28% UK 49% 51%
UK and Poland perceive their 10% 45% 45% Poland 45% 55%
domestic markets as being the most 13% 64% 23% Russia 37% 46% 17%
attractive. 19% 48% 33% Austria 24% 62% 14%

► The countries that are viewed as 20% 50% 30% Ukraine 10% 60% 30%

suffering most from the Eurozone 22% 62%
% 16% Netherlands 38% 56% 6%
sovereign debt crisis are Italy and 33% 46
6% 21% France 46% 28% 26%
Spain. 63% 20% 17% Spain 20% 7% 73%

70% 30% Italy 30% 70%

* In some cases no answers were provided by the respondents, which is not shown
in the graph. Thus, the total might deviate from 100%.
Very attractive Attractiv
ve Less attractive

Original question – “How do you rate your country’s attractiveness as a location for real esta investments in 2013? And compared to other countries in Europe?”
ate

ent

The Euro crisis and fear of inflation is expected to stimulate transaction
s
activity in a number of markets

Key messages Perceptions of th euro crisis
he Fear of inflation
► The Eurozone sovereign debt crisis is 8% 47% 45% Germany 49% 42% 8% 1%
expected to stimulate transaction 5% 12% 46% 37% France 42% 44% 7% 7%
volume in most of the countries 12% 6% 24% 58% Luxembourg 58% 24% 18%
surveyed. 10% 10% 45% 35% Belgium 50% 30% 20%

► Expectations of increases in property 18% 55% 24% Switzerland 29% 52% 16%

investment are most significant in 10% 14% 19% 57% Austria 43% 38% 19%

German-speaking and French-
G ki dF h 15% 10% 35% 40% Poland 60% 15% 15% 10%
speaking countries. 16% 16% 52% 16% Netherlands 34% 44% 16% 6%
Russia
► Investment activity in non-Eurozone 7% 27% 36%
% 30% 33% 37% 17% 10%

countries is affected less than in 25% 15% 15% 45% Ukraine 50% 30% 5% 15%

Eurozone countries. 35% 10% 10% 45% Turkey 55% 20% 25%
37% 6% 21
1% 34% UK 45% 25% 11% 19%
► However, respondents still perceive
33% 13% 17
7% 37% Sweden 34% 29% 4% 29%
some countries to be struggling with
27% 33% 20% 20% Spain
the consequences of the Eurozone
q 23% 27% 23% 27%
Italy
sovereign debt crisis. 50% 15%
1 20% 15% 10% 10% 60% 20%

in the graph. Thus, the total might deviate from 100%. Agree Rather agree Rather disagree Disagree
Original question: “Do you agree with the following statements: The Eurozone sovereign deb crisis will increase investments by European investors in the real estate markets. /
Do bt markets
Fear of high inflation in the medium term will drive investors towards the real estate market."

ent

With regard to real estate financing, Solvency II could offset some of the
potential impacts of Basel III

Basel III regulations Solvency II re
egulations Key messages
10% 5% 52% 33% Austria2) 43% 42% 10% ► All countries surveyed expect
13% 4% 33% 50% Sweden 37% 33% 17% 13% Basel III to restrict bank lending in
6% 13% 19% 62% UK 59% 21% 9% 9% the property markets
markets.
20% 54% 25% Germany 43% 46% 10% ► On the other hand, respondents
9% 19% 25% 47% Netherlands 28% 44% 25% 3% think Solvency II will make it
9% 21% 37% 33% France 33% 42% 9% 16% attractive for other debt providers,
20% 15% 20% 45% Poland2)
l d 35% 25%
2 20% 20% such as insurance companies to fill
companies,
24% 12% 24% 40% Luxembourg 64% 18% 12% 6% that gap.
32% 42% 21% Switzerland1) 5% 58% 26% ► In countries that might suffer most
30% 10% 20% 40% Ukraine1) 2) 55% 10% 35% from Basel III, market participants
10% 30% 30% 30% Russia1) 27% 50% 10% 13% expect insurance companies and
17% 27% 36% 20% Spain 40% 20% 23% 17% pension funds to take over the role of
25% 20% 5% 50% Turkey1) Question not inclu
uded in Turkish survey banks as alternative lenders.
35% 10% 25% 30% Italy 25% 15% 25% 35% 1) Not a member of the European Union, Solvency II not
legally binding.
15% 30% 35% 20% Belgium 30% 20% 35% 15% 2) Not a member of the Basel Committee on Banking

Supervision, Basel III not legally binding.
Original question – “Do you agree with the following statement: Basel III regulation will make real estate loans less attractive for banks and lead to greater restraint in the mortgage
Do
business. / Due to Solvency II regulation, insurance companies and pension funds increasingl act as debt providers for real estate investments in the future."
ly

ent

Transaction volume expected to rise, driven partly by international
investments

Key messages Transaction volume Cross-border activity
► The vast majority of respondents 12% 6% 82% Luxembourg 58% 18% 6% 18%

expect a higher transaction volume 13% 3% 41% 43% Netherlands 41% 31% 9% 19%
in 2013 than in 2012
2012. 5% 12% 48% 35% France 23% 54% 14% 9%

► In Luxembourg, the Netherlands, 15% 2% 36% 47% UK 51% 30% 11% 8%

France, the UK, and Turkey, more 20% 5% 70% Turkey 60% 10% 5% 25%

than three quarters of interviewees 25% %
56% 19% Germany 20% 66% 14%

expect transaction volume to 17% 13% 29% 41% Sweden 37% 33% 17% 13%
increase. 25% 5% 25% 45% Ukraine 45% 20% 10% 25%

► There is a significant rise in the 7% 23% 37% 33% Russia 23% 30% 37% 10%

expectation of increased volume 15% 20% 45%
4 20% Belgium 25% 30% 25% 20%

compared to 2012. 14% 14% 43
3% 29% Austria 34%
34% 33%
33% 14%
14% 19%
19%

► This is fostered by international 15% 25% 10% 50% Poland 30% 20% 25% 25%

investors looking for new investment 17% 33% 33% 17% Spain 27% 20% 20% 33%

opportunities.
pp 45% 39% 11% Switzerland 16% 50% 29%

35% 30% 15% 20% Italy 5% 20% 30% 45%

in the graph. Thus, the total might deviate from 100%. Agree Rather disagree Disagree
Rather agree
Original question – “Do you agree with the following statement: Overall transaction volume in 2013 will exceed the level seen in 2012. / Investment activity by international real estate
Do Overall, 2012
investors will increase compared to 2012.”

ent

Environmental sustainability standar will play an important role in
rds
many markets

Key messages Impo
ortance of green-building standards
► Respondents in almost all countries
Austria 57% 33% 5% 5%
expect green-building standards to
play an important role
role. Luxembourg 88% 12%

Switzerland 32% 55% 8%
► This development could be Turkey 60% 25% 15%
influenced by the requirements of Sweden 45% 38% 4% 13%
institutional investors and national Germany 27% 53% 19% 1%
building standards
standards. Netherlands 40% 38% 16% 6%

Poland 45% 30% 20% 5%

Belgium 25% 50% 15% 10%

France 21% 49% 28% 2%

Russia 23% 43% 27% 7%

Ukraine 50% 15% 10% 25%

UK 39% 21% 17% 21%

Italy 45% 10% 15% 30%

Spain 20% 20% 30% 30%

Agr
ree Rather agree Rather disagree Disagree

Original question – “Do you agree with the following statement: Green-building standards wil play a more important role with respect to existing investment properties.”
ll

ent

Real Estate Asset Investment Trend Indicator

Real Estate Asset Investment Trend Indicator

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