Belgium real estate trend indicator 2012
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Belgium real estate trend indicator 2012 Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Trend indicatorReal Estate Assets InvestmentBelgium 2012
  • 2. Key findings for 2012 84% of the participants see Belgium as an attractive location. The capital and transaction markets are viewed with moderate optimism Prices in prime locations will stay stable Strongest seller groups: Residential real estate companies, real estate corporations/REITs and banks Strongest buyer groups: Real estate corporations/REITs Office properties will have the highest focus for investors Preferred regions: Brussels (offices), Leuven (retail) and Gent (residential)January 2012 Page 2 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 3. Agenda Trend Indicator real estate assets investment Belgium 2012 About the trend indicator 2012 Market outlook Belgium 2012 Investment strategy Belgium 2012 European outlook 2012January 2012 Page 3 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 4. Trend indicator real estate assets investment Belgium 2012© euroluftbild.de
  • 5. Our trend indicator covers a broad range of investor groups in Belgium…Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Investor groups► Survey of about 25 companies and investors who have been active in the Belgian Real estate services firm (30%) property market in recent years Publicly listed company / REIT (14%)► The survey looks at two topics: Institutional investor / Pension fund (12%) Other UK lending bank (8%) ► General assessment of the Belgian real estate investment market in 2012 by real estate investors Other debt provider (8%) Private property company (8%) ► Analysis of the strategy pursued by real estate investors in Belgium with respect to the development of the real estate market Open-ended fund (8%) Private equity / Opportunity / Hedge fund (4%) Other, please specify (8%) 1 Background 2 Aims 3 Method ► Ernst & Young Real Estate has conducted ► Assessment of the Belgian real estate ► The trend indicator is based on a survey this survey in Germany since 2006 and in investment market in the year to come. conducted by the Economist Intelligence Unit in Switzerland since 2010. ► Outlook on the strategy which Belgian investors November and December 2011. ► This year it was extended to Belgium for will pursue in the coming year. ► The feedback of the interviews forms the results the first time. of the trend indicator.January 2012 Page 5 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 6. … the same survey was also executed in other European countriesEuropean trend indicator: real estate assets investment► The survey includes for the first time 12 European countries► All surveys took place in November and December 2011► Across these countries, we have gathered feedback from a total of 550 companies who are active on the real estate market Participating Countries ► Austria ► Luxembourg ► Spain ► Belgium ► Netherlands ► Sweden ► France ► Poland ► Switzerland ► Germany ► Russia ► United KingdomJanuary 2012 Page 6 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 7. 84% of the participants see Belgium as an attractive location in 2012 …Belgium’s attractiveness as a location for real estate investments Key messages ► A clear majority (84%) views 69% Belgium as an attractive or very attractive real estate investment location in 2012 15% 12% 4% 0% Very attractive Attractive Less attractive Neutral No responseOriginal question – “How do you rate Belgium‟s overall attractiveness as a location for real estate investments in 2012?”January 2012 Page 7 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 8. … particularly compared with other European countries Belgium’s attractiveness as a location for real estate investments Key messages compared to other countries ► The majority rated Belgium as attractive or very attractive 43% compared to other countries (58%) ► 27% of the participants are neutral 27% about the relative attractiveness of Belgium 15% 15% 0% Very attractive Attractive Less attractive Neutral No responseOriginal question – “How do you rate Belgium‟s overall attractiveness as a location for real estate investments in 2012 compared to other countries?”January 2012 Page 8 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 9. The capital markets in 2012 are viewed with moderate optimism … "Fears of high inflation in the medium term will drive"Fears of high inflation in the medium term will drive investors towards the real estate market." investors towards the real estate market." 8% 61% 19% 12% ► High inflation will drive investors towards real estate (69%) "The "The euro-zone sovereign debt crisis will significantly euro-zone sovereign debt crisis will significantly reduce activity in 12% 53% 23% 12% European real estate markets." reduce activity in European real estate markets. “ ► Euro crisis will reduce activities in Due to the Solvency II regulation, insurance companies“Due to the Solvency II regulation, insurance companies could increasingly the real estate market (65%) act as debt providers for real estate investments in for future.” could increasingly act as debt providers the real estate 58% 23% 19% investments in the future.” ► Insurance companies to increasingly "There will will be increased transaction activity a result of real "There be increased transaction activity in 2012, as in 2012, as act as debt providers (58%) estate assets of realto market out of restructuring market out of a result coming estate assets coming to of secured debt 8% 46% 23% 23% facilities." restructuring of secured debt facilities." ► Increase in transactions (54%) "Banks will reduce their exposure to commercial real commercial real "Banks will reduce their exposure to estate holdings over 12% 41% 35% 4% 8% ► Banks will reduce commercial real estate holdings over the next 12 months.” the next 12 months." estate holdings (53%) "The Basel III regulation will make real estate loans less"The Basel III regulation will make real estate loans less attractive for banks attractive for banksrestraint inleadmortgage business." and will lead to greater and will the to greater restraint in 15% 31% 19% 8% 27% ► Restraints in mortgage availability the mortgage business." due to Basel III (46%) "There will be an increase in M&A activity in the real estate sector in "There will be an increase in M&A activity in the real 2012." estate sector in 2012.” 8% 34% 27% 8% 23% ► Increase in M&A activities (42%) ► CMBS will revive in 2012 (38%) "The commercial mortgage backed securities market will "The commercial mortgage backed securities market will revive in 2012." 8% 30% 31% 4% 27% revive in 2012." ► IPOs and equity issuance will "Capital markets will become become morefor real estate IPOs and "Capital markets will more attractive attractive for real increase (36%) equity capital increases." 8% 28% 24% 8% 32% estate IPOs and equity capital increases." Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree Neutral No response Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly Ddsagree Neutral Original question – “Which of the following statements about the real estate financial/capital market in 2012 do you agree with?” January 2012 Page 9 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 10. … and the transaction market is expected to be also moderate in 2012 "‟Green‟ building standards will play a more important role ► Green building standards will play a in the real estate investment market in the future, alsomore "‟Green‟ building standards will play a with 38% 38% 12% 4% 8% respect to role in the in existing investment important investmentsreal estate real estate."… more important role in the future (76%) “There will be more more new project developments in “There will be new project developments in 2012.” 65% 19% 4% 12% 2012.” ► More project developments in 2012 (65%) “There will be more realfinancial investors will be more “International estate portfolio deals in 2012.” 8% 46% 23% 4% 19% attracted to the real estate market in 2012.” ► International financial investors “International financial investors will be more attracted “There will be more real estate portfolio deals in increasingly attracted (54%) to the 2012.” real estate market in 2012.” 12% 41% 8% 4% 35% ► More portfolio deals (53%) “On average, the size of the size of real estate deals will “On average, real estate deals will increase in 2012 compared to 2011.” 12% 38% 35% 15% ► Increased deal size (50%) increase in 2012 compared to 2011.” ► Increased transaction volume “Overall, the transaction volume volume will continue to “Overall, the transaction will continue to recover 4% 15% 54% 4% 23% compared to 2011 (19%) recover2012 and and exceed levellevel seen in … in in 2012 exceed the the seen in 2011.” Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree Neutral No response Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree NeutralOriginal question – “Which of the following statements about the real estate transaction market in 2012 do you agree with?”January 2012 Page 10 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 11. Price trends will vary depending on location … Key messages Office Retail ► Prices for offices in prime locations 53% will increase (35%) or stay stable 43% (42%) 42% 43% 38% 38% 38% 35% 34% ► Retail in prime locations will 35% 35% 31% 31% 31% increase (38%) or stay stable (43%) 23% 19% 19% 12% Increasing Increasing Stable Stable Decreasing Decreasing Increasing Increasing Stable Stable Decreasing Decreasing Prime Secondary Periphery The figures on page 12,13,16,17,18,19 and 22 may not add up to 100% as the charts do not include cases of no responseOriginal question – “How do you expect purchase prices to develop in 2012 based on the type of use and location?”January 2012 Page 11 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 12. … and type of useResidential Hotel Key messages 60% ► The majority expects prices of residential properties to remain 48% 48% 48% 43% 43% stable in all locations 38% 40% 38% ► Many expect attractiveness of 32% 28% 28% hotel investments, especially in 24% prime locations to increase (43%), 20% 19% 19% other locations are considered to 12% 12% be stable Increasing Increasing Stable Stable Decreasing Decreasing Increasing Increasing Stable Stable Decreasing Decreasing Prime Secondary PeripheryOriginal question – “How do you expect purchase prices to develop in 2012 based on the type of use and location?”January 2012 Page 12 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 13. Who will be the most active seller groups in Belgium in 2012 … Seller groups Key messagesResidential real estate real estate Residential companies 53% 35% 12% companies ► In addition to the residential real Real estate corporations/REITs 19% 66% 15% estate companies (88%), real Real estate corporations/REITs estate corporations/REITs (85%) Banks Banks 8% 73% 19% and banks (81%) will be the most active seller groups in 2012 Open-ended funds Open-ended Funds 27% 42% 31% ► Banks in surrounding countries in Public sector Public sector 12% 57% 31% top three sellers Insurance companies Insurance companies 19% 46% 35% ► Open-ended funds and public sector will be slightly less active Corporates (non-property) Corporates (Non-Property) 31% 34% 35% sellers groups Other international funds Other international Funds 12% 46% 42% ► Closed-ended funds and PE-funds are seen as the most moderate Opportunity-/PE-funds Opportunity-/PE-Funds 4% 54% 38% 4% seller groups Closed-ended funds Closed-end Funds 46% 54% Active Moderately Moderately active Active active Cautious No response response Cautious No Original question – “How active do you think the following seller groups will be in the Belgian real estate market in 2012?” January 2012 Page 13 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 14. … and who will be the buyers in Belgium? Key messages Buyer groups Real estate corporations/REITs 31% 50% 19% ► Real estate corporations/REITs Real estate corporations/REITs (81%) will be the most active Insurance companies Insurance companies 27% 46% 27% group of buyers ► All other types of buyers seem to Other international funds Other international funds 19% 54% 27% be equally active on the market Open-ended Funds Open-ended funds 19% 54% 27% ► Only opportunity/PE-Funds are expected to be less active Residential real estate Residential real estate 8% 61% 31% companies companies Banks Banks 12% 57% 31% Closed-end Funds Closed-end funds 34% 35% 31% Private/Family Office Private/Family office 19% 46% 35% Sovereign wealth funds 15% 50% 31% 4% Sovereign wealth funds Opportunity-/PE-Funds 12% 38% 46% 4% Opportunity-/PE-funds Active Moderately active Cautious No response Active Moderately active Cautious No responseOriginal question – “How active do you think the following buyer groups will be in the Belgian real estate market in 2012?”January 2012 Page 14 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 15. The following use types will be popular …Strong or moderate investment focus Key messages ► Office properties will have the 53% 53% highest focus for investors (27%) 42% 43% ► Generally all use types will have a more moderate investment focus 31% 27% 19% 19% 8% 4% Strong Moderate Office Retail Residential Logistics Hotel Office Retail Residential Logistics HotelOriginal question – “Compared to 2011, what kind of focus do you intend to give to the following real estate use types in your investment strategy for 2012?”January 2012 Page 15 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 16. … and not so popular with investors in 2012 Lower or no investment focus Key messages ► Logistic investments are in a low 42% investment focus 27% 23% 23% 19% 15% 12% 12% 12% 8% Low No focus Office Retail Residential Logistics Hotel Office Retail Residential Logistics HotelOriginal question – “Compared to 2011, what kind of focus do you intend to give to the following real estate use types in your investment strategy for 2012?”January 2012 Page 16 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 17. Investors prefer Brussels and Antwerpen for office investments, forretail investments Leuven-Gent-Antwerp are more in the focus …Office and Retail focus Key messages ► Brussels (58%) and Antwerp (34%) will be the most attractive 58% locations for offices ► Retail investments are expected to be stronger in Leuven (30%), 34% 30% Antwerp (27%) and Gent (27%) 27% 27% 19% 15% 15% 12% 12% 12% 12% 8% 4% Office Retail Brussels Antwerp Brussel Gent Gent Antwerpen Leuven Leuven Namen Namen Luik Luik Kortrijk KortrijkOriginal question – “Which Top-City-Locations will you be focusing your investments on in 2012?”January 2012 Page 17 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 18. … residential investments are preferred in Flanders Residential and no focus Key messages ► For residential investments, investors prefer Flanders i.e. Gent 30% (30%) and Leuven (23%) 23% 19% 19% 19% 12% 12% 12% 10% 8% 8% 4% 4% 0% Residential Other Brussel Antwerpen Brussels Antwerpen Gent Gent Leuven Leuven Namen Namen Luik Luik Kortrijk KortrijkOriginal question – “Which Top-City-Locations will you be focusing your investments on in 2012?”January 2012 Page 18 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 19. The greatest impediments to deal flow in 2012 will be…Impediments to deal flow Key messages ► The availability of senior debt Availability of senior Availability of senior debt debt funding funding 12% 60% 12% 4% 12% funds (72%) and availability of junior debt funding (50%) are the greatest impediments for deal Availability of junior Availability of junior debt debt funding funding 19% 31% 19% 8% 23% flows ► Price mismatch between buyers & Price mismatch sellers is an additional hurdle Price mismatch between between buyers and 8% 38% 23% 4% 27% buyers and sellers sellers (46%) ► Need for capital injection (42%) Level of capitalof Capital Level injection becomes important required 23% 19% 23% 12% 23% Injection required Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree NeutralOriginal question – “Do you agree or disagree that the following will be impediments to deal flow in 2012?”January 2012 Page 19 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 20. … and the following bank actions are expected for problem loans Bank actions to handle problem loans Key messages ► Extension of loan repayment Banks will extend loan Banks will extend loan repayment period 8% 57% 23% 8% 4% period is considered to be the repayment period most effective action to handle problem loans (65%) Banks will increase debt-for- Banks will increase debt- equity swaps 8% 50% 15% 8% 19% for-equity swaps ► Debt-for-equity swaps are increasing (58%) Banks will increase Banks will increase consensual consensual restructuring restructuring deals 19% 27% 31% 4% 19% deals Banks will increasingly Banks will increasingly replace 12% 23% 34% 31% replaceasset managers asset managers Banks will increase Banks will increase enforcementof enforcement of 8% 23% 19% 12% 38% repayment repayment terms and terms and conditions conditions Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly Disagree Neutral No response Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree NeutralOriginal question – “Please indicate whether you agree or disagree with the following statements.”January 2012 Page 20 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 21. Which exit options will play a role?Planned exit strategies Key messages ► Mutual funds (46%) is the preferred exit option 46% 42% ► REOC/REIT (42%) and closed- ended funds (35%) will also play a 35% large role 27% 23% 0% REOC/REIT Mutual funds IPO Closed-end funds Trade sale Other REOC/REIT Mutual funds IPO Closed-end funds Trade Sale OtherOriginal question – “What exit strategies do you have planned?”January 2012 Page 21 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 22. Trend indicator real estate assets investment Europe 2012© euroluftbild.deJanuary 2012 Page 22 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 23. January 2012 Page 23 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 24. The perceived attractiveness of property markets varies from country tocountry.Key Message Attractiveness (absolute) … compared to other locations► All countries were rated positively Germany 1% 61% 38% Germany Germany 52% 47% 1%► Economic stability makes Germany Sweden 4% 64% 32% Sweden Sweden 21% 57% 11% 7% 4% Sweden and Switzerland most Austria 4%4% 71% 21% Austria Austria 14% 51% 14% 21% attractive to investors who are active there Luxembourg 4%7% 82% 7% Luxembourg Luxembourg 18% 54% 7% 21%► Some other countries are viewed Russia 4% 8% 53% 35% Russia Russia 15% 59% 13% 13% with caution. Reasons include a lack Switzerland 50% 38% 9% 3% of transaction opportunities at Swiss 6% 9% 44% 41% Swiss attractive prices and uncertainty Spain 15% 60% 25% Spain 28% 36% 9% 25% 2% Spain regarding economic stability Belgium 4%12% 69% 15% Belgium Belgium 15% 43% 15% 27% Poland 11% 6% 53% 30% Poland Poland 19% 64% 13% 4% The Netherlands 6% 14% 68% 12% Netherlands Netherlands 22% 48% 8% 22% France 2% 21% 65% 12% France France 12% 57% 10% 21% UK 15% 11% 57% 17% UK UK 31% 30% 26% 13% No responseattractive Very Neutral Attractive attractive attractive Less Less Neutral No response Very attractive Attractive Less attractive Attractive Very attractive Neutral No responseOriginal question – “How do you rate your attractiveness as a location for real estate investments in 2012? And compared to other locations worldwide?”January 2012 Page 24 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 25. Fear of inflation in the medium term is driving more investors towardreal estate …Fear inflation will drive real estate investment Key Message Swiss Switzerland 35% 53% 9% 3% ► In all countries surveyed, a majority of respondents agree that concern Germany Germany 24% 64% 12% over inflation is fueling interest in France France 25% 44% 15% 4% 12% real estate Belgium Belgium 8% 61% 19% 12% ► The majority is particularly overwhelming in Switzerland and UK UK 9% 59% 15% 2% 15% Germany (88 % in each) Russia Russia 20% 46% 22% 4% 8% Luxembourg Luxembourg 21% 43% 18% 7% 11% Poland Poland 15% 48% 17% 7% 13% The Netherlands 8% 53% 27% 4% 8% Netherlands Austria Austria 7% 50% 25% 4% 14% Sweden Sweden 4% 50% 32% 7% 7% Spain Spain 9% 43% 26% 11% 11% Strongly Agree Agree Disagree Strongly Disagree Neutral No reponse Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree Neutral No responseOriginal question – “Do you agree with the following statement: „Fears of high inflation in the medium term will drive investors towards the real estate market.‟?”January 2012 Page 25 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 26. … and the Euro crisis is linked with a decline in real estate activity in theEuropean markets.Key Message Perceptions of the Euro crisis► A majority in all countries surveyed Sweden Schweden 25% 61% 14% associates the Euro crisis with a Polen Poland 17% 66% 11% 6% decline in real estate investment activity Spanien Spain 26% 57% 13% 2% 2%► In Switzerland, Germany and Großbritannien UK 22% 57% 13% 2% 6% Belgium, fear of inflation appears to France Frankreich 29% 49% 12% 8% 2% be overriding skepticism toward the Euro Austria Österreich 14% 61% 18% 7% Luxembourg Luxemburg 25% 47% 14% 7% 7% Russia Russland 15% 56% 23% 2% 4% The Niederlande 14% 57% 27% 2% Netherlands Belgium Belgien 12% 53% 23% 12% Germany Deutschland 14% 38% 30% 18% Switzerland Schweiz 12% 38% 38% 12% Strongly Agree Agree Disagree Strongly Disagree Neutral No reponse Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree Neutral No responseOriginal question: „Do you agree with the following statement: „The euro-zone sovereign debt crisis will significantly reduce activity in European real estate markets.‟?”January 2012 Page 26 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 27. Some respondents anticipate increased lending by insurance companiesas a result of Solvency II …Opinion of insurance companies as debt providers Key Message Deutschland ► Respondents in half the countries Germany 31% 54% 14% 1% surveyed agree that insurance Belgien Belgium 58% 23% 19% companies will become more active The Niederlande 14% 41% 18% 2% 25% as lenders as a result of Solvency II Netherlands ► Agreement is strongest in Germany Großbritannien UK 13% 41% 19% 6% 21% (85%), while just over a third of Polen Poland 11% 43% 25% 4% 17% respondents in Austria share this view Schweiz Switzerland 9% 44% 38% 9% Spanien Spain 21% 30% 17% 32% Russia Russland 10% 39% 37% 4% 10% Schweden Sweden 18% 29% 18% 4% 31% Luxemburg Luxembourg 18% 29% 25% 7% 21% France Frankreich 13% 29% 12% 19% Austria Österreich 11% 25% 25% 39% Strongly Agree Agree Disagree Strongly Disagree Neutral No reponse Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree Neutral No responseOriginal question – “Do you agree: „Due to the Solvency II regulation, insurance companies could increasingly act as debt providers for real estate investments in the future.‟?”January 2012 Page 27 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 28. … and expectations of transaction volume in 2012 are generallylukewarm.Key Message Expectations of transaction volume► Germany and France are the only Deutschland Germany 8% 48% 39% 4% 1% countries surveyed in which a Frankreich France 33% 21% 17% 6% 23% majority of respondents (56% and 54%) expect higher transaction Luxembourg Luxemburg 11% 42% 29% 4% 14% volume in 2012 than in 2011 Poland Polen 13% 33% 30% 15% 9%► In most countries, respondents Switzerland Schweiz 3% 38% 47% 12% anticipate a stable or declining volume of transactions UK Großbritannien 7% 34% 22% 11% 26% Spanien Spain 8% 30% 25% 11% 26% The Niederlande 6% Netherlands 27% 24% 16% 27% Russland Russia 12% 21% 42% 12% 13% Österreich Austria 7% 18% 25% 11% 39% Schweden Sweden 21% 40% 7% 32% Belgien Belgium 4% 15% 54% 4% 23% Strongly Agree Agree Disagree Strongly Disagree Neutral No reponse Ich stimme zu Ich stimme eher zu Ich stimme eher nicht zu Ich stimme nicht zu Neutral keine AngabeOriginal question – “Do you agree with the following statement: „Overall, the transaction volume will continue to recover in 2012 and exceed the level seen in 2011‟?”January 2012 Page 28 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 29. Price trends for office property are expected to vary from country tocountry and according to location …Price trends office property Key Message ► In almost all countries surveyed, office property prices in prime (1a) locations are expected to remain 14 14 stable or grow SWE 39 39 47 47 ► Growth potential is especially evident 20 22 8 18 in those countries in which office NL 16 64 30 RUS 31 61 28 54 property had been under price 48 19 15 18 pressure BEL 23 35 43 UK 26 39 ► Prices in peripheral locations are 59 43 42 38 25 11 PL 47 30 26 largely viewed as stable; GermanyLUX 32 57 32 36 28 44 32 8 27 19 and Switzerland are the exceptions GER 65 81 15 8 11 19 F 25 60 46 46 AT 50 39 44 37 12 30 24 18 15 Legend SP 17 32 CH 71 38 58 85 Prime Periphery 19 Increasing stable decreasing 39 37 50 11 44 (percentage results) )Original question – “How do you expect purchase prices to develop in 2012 based on the type of use and location?”January 2012 Page 29 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 30. … as are price trends for retail property ...Key Message Price trends retail property► In most countries, a majority of respondents expect prices for retail property in prime locations to remain stable or even climb 4 32 32► Expectations of rising prices in top SWE 53 43 36 locations are strongest in Germany 24 20 27 18 18 13 21 and Luxembourg NL 56 44 29 RUS 64 66 19 17 BEL 38 31 35 UK 33 42 30 43 34 50 28 21 14 22 22 PL 30 42 35 LUX 39 47 28 44 56 4 1 GER 49 47 57 42 17 15 12 26 30 F 38 33 AT 56 32 45 52 44 Legend 19 8 29 25 12 6 18 SP CH Prime Periphery 73 46 82 82 19 Increasing stable decreasing 39 37 50 11 44 (percentage results) )Original question – “How do you expect purchase prices to develop in 2012 based on the type of use and location?”January 2012 Page 30 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 31. … and residential property…Price trends residential property Key Message ► Throughout Europe, residential property prices are robust in top locations 7 ► This is expecially true in Germany, 21 25 SWE 39 54 54 Switzerland and Great Britain 22 ► Even in peripheral locations, 34 20 17 18 NL 35 43 46 RUS 31 52 33 residential real estate prices are 49 20 15 14 generally viewed as stable BEL 32 24 28 UK 21 64 46 40 48 48 28 22 14 21 25 PL 37 43LUX 47 39 54 35 35 1 7 24 27 GER 75 66 14 18 36 38 25 33 30 F 45 41 AT 37 46 37 25 3 6 Legend SP 45 37 40 CH 32 65 24 30 23 70 Prime Periphery 19 Increasing stable decreasing 39 37 50 11 44 (percentage results) )Original question – “How do you expect purchase prices to develop in 2012 based on the type of use and location?”January 2012 Page 31 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 32. … whereby the most active seller and buyer groups are identified asfollows:Key Message TOP seller groups TOP buyer groups Residential RE Corp. (88 %), RE Corp./REITs (81 %), Insurance Corp. (73 %),► Throughout Europe, banks and Belgium RE Corp./REITs (85 %), Banks (81 %) Other intl. funds (73 %) property companies /REITs are Open-ended funds (91 %), Privat/Family Office (94 %), Insurance Corp. (92 %), Germany expected to be among the most Opportunity-/PE-Funds (89 %), Banks (88 %) Other intl. funds (89 %) RE Corp./REITs (92 %), Banks (92 %), Residential RE Corp. (85 %), active sellers in 2012 Residential RE Corp. (85 %) France Open-ended funds (85 %), Banks (85 %)► In a majority of the countries Banks (89 %), Opportunity-/PE-Funds (83 %), Residential RE Corp. (80 %), UK Opportunity-/PE-Funds (79 %), Open-ended funds (78 surveyed, residential real estate Residential RE Corp. (79 %) %) RE Corp./REITs (88 %), Residential RE Corp. (89 %), companies will become more active Residential RE Corp. (86 %), Banks (79 %) Luxembourg Open-ended funds (82 %), Other intl. funds (80 %) as sellers RE Corp./REITs (88 %), Banks (84 %), Residential RE Corp. (80 %), The Netherlands Residential RE Corp. (75 %) Banks (74 %), RE Corp./REITs (73 %)► On the buyer side, residential real RE Corp./REITs (79 %), Sovereign wealth funds (75 %), estate companies are expected to be Open-ended funds (75 %), Banks (75 %) Austria Open-ended funds (75 %), Banks (64 %) most active in 2012 Banks (80 %), Residential RE Corp. (79 %), Poland Banks (79 %), Residential RE Corp. (77 %), RE Corp./REITs (78 %) Open-ended funds (74 %) RE Corp./REITs (87 %), Open-ended funds (86 %), Banks (85 %), Residential RE Corp. (83 %), Russia Opportunity-/PE-Funds (84 %) RE Corp./REITs (83 %) Open-ended funds (89 %), RE Corp./REITs (86 %), Residential RE Corp. (89 %), Sweden Residential RE Corp. (82 %) Open-ended funds (82 %), Other intl. funds (80 %) Opportunity-/PE-Funds (75 %), Real estate funds (100 %), Swiss Corporates (Non-Property) (74 %), Banks (73 %) Privat/Family Office (97 %), Insurance Corp. (91 %) Banks (91 %), RE Corp./REITs (81 %), Residential RE Corp. (83 %), Spain Opportunity-/PE-Funds (77 %) Banks (83 %), Open-ended funds (76 %)Original question – “How active do you think the following seller/buyer groups will be in the real estate market in 2012?”January 2012 Page 32 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 33. Investment focus on office property, in comparison with other uses, isanticipated as follows:Investment focus office property Key Message ► Investors in countries where office property prices are expected to rise have office property at the top of their shopping lists 7 14 SWE 32 ► Investors in France and Russia report 47 12 8 4 2 the strongest focus on office NL 29 51 RUS 38 56 property for 2012 8 11 12 27 9BEL UK 40 40 53 14 14 14 15 28LUX 11 36 GER 21 PL 17 39 51 40 12 14 21 F 31 57 AT 21 44 11 22 17 Legend SP 9 38 CH 61 42 14 21 strong moderate low no focus 21 44 (percentage results)Original question – “Compared to 2011, what kind of focus do you intend to give to the following real estate use types in your investment strategy for 2012?”January 2012 Page 33 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 34. Focus on retail properties will also vary in 2012 …Key Message Investment focus retail property► Most investors focus to some extent also on retail property (exception: Switzerland)► Investors in Germany, France, 18 25 Luxembourg and Poland favor the SWE 36 21 retail sector most strongly 10 20 NL 29 18 RUS 22 33 33 35 27 19 19 17 BEL UK 26 12 42 38 11 17 17 LUX 14 43 GER 8 51 PL 21 36 32 24 26 10 F 19 46 AT 32 29 25 14 25 15 3 3 Legend SP 28 31 CH 36 26 58 14 21 strong moderate low no focus 21 44 (percentage results)Original question – “Compared to 2011, what kind of focus do you intend to give to the following real estate use types in your investment strategy for 2012?”January 2012 Page 34 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 35. … while investor focus on European residential property is expected tovary as follows :Investment focus residential property Key Message ► As an asset class, residential property is in demand in most of the countries surveyed (exception: Switzerland) 25 14 SWE 21 40 ► In Germany, it appears that the 24 4 massive demand for residential real 23 29 NL 18 33 RUS estate will be sustained in 2012 25 44 23 19BEL 15 UK 30 25 43 17 28 14 15LUX 11 43 GER 6 10 69 PL 22 24 32 24 30 13 21 29 18 F 13 AT 53 18 35 16 27 6 14 SP 20 CH Legend 37 80 14 21 strong moderate low no focus 21 44 (percentage results)Original question – “Compared to 2011, what kind of focus do you intend to give to the following real estate use types in your investment strategy for 2012?”January 2012 Page 35 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 36. SummaryJanuary 2012 Page 36 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 37. This is how the survey participants see the Belgian real estate market … Outlook Belgium Attractiveness Seller/buyer groups ► A clear majority (84%) views Belgium as an attractive or ► In addition to the residential real estate companies (88%), very attractive real estate investment location in 2012 real estate corporations/REITs (85%) and banks (81%) will be the most active seller groups in 2012 ► The majority rated Belgium as attractive or very attractive compared to other countries (58%) ► Real estate corporations/REITs (81%) will be the most active Real estate financial/capital market group of buyers ► High inflation will drive investors towards real estate (69%) ► All other types of buyers seem to be equally active on the ► Euro crisis will reduce activities in the real estate market market (65%) Real estate use types Real estate transaction market ► Office properties will have the highest focus for investors ► International financial investors increasingly attracted (54%) (27%) ► More project developments in 2012 (65%) ► Residential investments are in a low investment focus Purchase price expectations Preferred regions ► Prices for offices in prime locations will increase (35%) or ► Brussels (58%) and Antwerpen (34%) will be the most stay stable (42%) attractive locations for offices ► Retail in prime locations will increase (38%) or stay stable ► For residential investments, investors prefer Gent (30%) and (43%) Leuven (23%) ► The majority expects prices of residential properties to remain stable in all locationsJanuary 2012 Page 37 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 38. This is how the survey participants see the Belgian real estate market … Outlook Belgium Greatest impediments for deals ► The availability of senior debt funds (72%) and availability of junior debt funding (50%) are the greatest impediments for deal flows ► Price mismatch between buyers & sellers is an additional hurdle (46%) Bank actions to handle problem loans ► Extension of loan repayment period is considered to be the most effective action to handle problem loans (65%) ► Debt-for-equity swaps are increasing (58%) Exit strategies ► Mutual funds (46%) is the preferred exit optionJanuary 2012 Page 38 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 39. … while investors throughout Europe express the following views: Outlook Europe Real estate transaction market Attractiveness ► Germany and France are the only countries surveyed in ► All countries were rated positively which a majority of respondents (56% and 54%) expect ► Economic stability makes Germany, Sweden and higher transaction volume in 2012 than in 2011 Switzerland most attractive to investors who are active ► In most countries, respondents anticipate a stable or there declining volume of transactions ► Some other countries are viewed with caution. Reasons Purchase price expectations include a lack of transaction opportunities at attractive ► In almost all countries surveyed, office and retail prices in prices and uncertainty regarding economic stability prime (1a) locations are expected to remain stable or grow Real estate capital market ► Throughout Europe, residential prices are robust in top ► In all countries surveyed, a majority of respondents locations agrees that concern over inflation is fueling interest in Seller and buyer groups real estate ► Banks and real estate companies/ REITs are expected to be ► A majority in all countries surveyed associates the Euro among the most active sellers in 2012 crisis with a decline in real estate investment activity ► On the buyer side, residential real estate companies are ► Respondents in half the countries surveyed agree that expected to be most active in 2012 insurance companies will become more active as lenders Regional focus as a result of Solvency II ► Investors in countries where office prices are expected to rise have office property at the top of their shopping lists ► Most investors focus to some extent also on retail property ► As an asset class, residential property is in demand in most of the countries surveyedJanuary 2012 Page 39 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 40. Ernst & Young Marc Guns Tristan Dhondt Tel.: +32 2 774 94 19 Tel.: +32 2 774 60 17Assurance | Tax | Transactions | Advisory Mobile: +32 476 324 035 Mobile: +32 497 480 486 Email: marc.guns@be.ey.com Email: tristan.dhondt@be.ey.com 2012 Ernst & Young Transaction Advisory Services- all rightsreserved.About Ernst & YoungErnst & Young is a global leader in assurance, tax,transaction and advisory services. Worldwide, our152,000 people are united by our shared valuesand an unwavering commitment to quality. Wemake a difference by helping our people, ourclients and our wider communities achieve theirpotential.Ernst & Young refers to the global organization ofmember firms of Ernst & Young Global Limited,each of which is a separate legal entity. Ernst &Young Global Limited, a UK company limited byguarantee, does not provide services to clients. Formore information about our organization, pleasevisit www.ey.com.This news release has been issued by EYGMLimited, a member of the global Ernst & Youngorganization that also does not provide anyservices to clients.