Stockholm environment institute (ccac november 2012)
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Stockholm environment institute (ccac november 2012) Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Multiple Benefits of Short Lived Climate PollutantMitigation for Latin America and the Caribbean Johan C.I. KuylenstiernaDirector, Stockholm Environment Institute York Centre johan.kuylenstiernaUK@sei-international.org
  • 2. UNEP/WMO Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone Johan Kuylenstierna, Stockholm Environment Institute, SEI, Scientific Coordinator and lead author Drew Shindell, NASA-GISS, Chair; Vice-Chairs: Frank Raes, JointResearch Centre, EC; V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography; Kim Oanh, AIT; Luis Cifuentes, Catholic University of Chile Coordinating lead authors: DavidStreets, Argonne National Laboratory;David Fowler, CEH; Lisa Emberson, SEI; Martin Williams, Kings College London 50 Contributors, over 100 reviewers UNEP/WMO Coordinators: VolodymyrDemkine, UNEP / Liisa Jalkanen, WMO
  • 3. Climate and Clean Air Coalition to reduce Short-Lived Climate PollutantsThere is a lot of scientific and political interest – Why?
  • 4. What are short-lived climate pollutants?Black carbonMethaneTropospheric ozonesome Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs )• Relatively short-lived in the atmosphere• Act as air pollutants (except HFCs)• One of the causes of global warmingMultiple benefits of reducing SLCPs:• Reduce air pollution - Protect health and crops• Slow down near-term global warming, reduce regional impacts of climate change
  • 5. stratosphere Tropospheric Ozone – formed from precursor emissions Stratospheric O3 8 – 15 km chemical production chemical destruction O3troposphere CH4 CO VOCs NOX deposition
  • 6. Lifetimes in the atmosphereHFCs Average of mix: 15 years
  • 7. Air pollution: unfinished business on the sustainable development agenda Outdoor air pollution “Some progress” : Despite someProgress towards global progress, outdoor air pollutionenvironmental goals continues to have serious impacts on(UNEP GEO-5) the environment & human health. About 1.2 –Urban (3.7 – urban plus rural) million premature deaths each year due to outside air pollution. Indoor air pollution “little or no progress” “Indoor air pollution from particulate matter continues to have major health impacts, particularly on women and children.” • about3 billion people cook and heat using open fires • around 2 million people die each year prematurely from illness attributable to indoor air pollution Source: WHO statistics
  • 8. Ground levelozone isincreasing Due to methane and other precursorsReducing ground levelozone:• protects public health• reduces ozone damage to crops Source: UNEP GEO-5, HTAP
  • 9. Impact of the Tropospheric Ozone on Crop yields Exposure of wheat to ozone in Pakistan Filtered „Clean‟ air Air with ambient ozone
  • 10. Global and regional temperature changes relative to 2009 projected under the Assessment reference scenario for different global regions LAC vulnerable to warming
  • 11. A package of 16 measures can substantially reduce emissions and achieve multiple benefits• Mitigation measures ranked by net climate impact (using GWP) of emission changes• Considering CO, CH4, BC, OC, SO2, NOX, NMVOCs, and CO2• Picked the top measures – about 90% of warming benefitBlack carbon measures• addressing emissions from incomplete combustion - BC, OC, methane, CO, NMVOCsMethane measures• reducing methane emissions• No technical breakthroughs• These measures already implemented in many countries• Cost-effective
  • 12. The measures aiming at reducing methane emissionsIntermittent aeration -paddy Recovery from wastewater Recovery from oil and gas Recovery from landfill Recovery from livestock manure /change feed Coal mine methane capture Reducing pipeline leakage
  • 13. The measures aiming to reduce black carbon emissions Improved biomass stoves Modern coke ovens Remove big smokers / DPF Cooking with clean fuel Improved brick kilns Pellet biomass heating stovesCoal briquettes replacing coal Reduce agricultural burning Reduce flaring
  • 14. Effect of measures on emissions projected in 2030 relative to Reference emissions in 2030 9 BC measures fully implemented in 2030 7 Methane measures fully implemented in 2030
  • 15. Result for Global Temperature Change: CO2 and SLCP measures are complementary strategiesSource: UNEP/WMO (2011). Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon andTropospheric Ozone. UNEP, Nairobi
  • 16. The share of global temperature reduction from methane measures
  • 17. The Impact of Methane measures implemented in LAC on global temperatures
  • 18. The share of global temperature reduction from black carbon measures
  • 19. The Impact of BC measures implemented in LAC on global temperatures
  • 20. Regional Warming BenefitsComparison of regional mean warming over land (˚C) - change in 2070 compared with 2005 for the reference scenario and the SLCP measures scenario.
  • 21. Benefits of Reduced Warming rate in Latin America and the Caribbean Halving the rate of near term warming in LAC will: - Reduce the melting rate of glaciers - Reduce the change to agriculture implied by increased temperature (e.g. coffee) - Reduce changes in distribution of different species, vegetation types, reducing biodiversity loss - Allow more time for vulnerable communities to adapt
  • 22. Time series estimates of glacier mass balance in different regions of the world (from Kaser et al., 2006).Panel a. shows mass balance normalized to the glacierized area in eachregion (specific mass balance), a measure of the relative response ofeach region, while Panel b. shows change in total mass balance,reported in millimetres of sea-level equivalent (SLE)
  • 23. Near-term framing National action against air pollution can slow down global warmingSlowing down near-term global warming is important – not just focus on end ofCentury temperature 16 measures reduce global warming up to 2040  0.4/0.5oC relative to baseline  almost halving of temperature rise; 0.7oC reduction in Arctic Glacier lake outburst floodsWhy slow down near term global warming?• Bursting glacier lakes;• increasing heat waves• Melting arctic land ice, ice caps,  sea level rise• Allow vulnerable communities to adapt• Reduce biodiversity impactsCannot replace CO2 reductions – we need both –1. Reducing short-lived climate forcers: slow down near-term global warming2. CO2 reductions for long term climate protection
  • 24. HEALTH IMPACTS: Implementing the Black Carbon measures avoids about 2.4 million premature deaths globally each yearIn Latin America and the Caribbeanabout 39,000 premature deathswould be avoided each year
  • 25. CROP YIELD BENEFITS:About 32 (range 21-57) million tonnes yield loss avoided in 2030 A. Methane measures reduces air pollution & saves lives P
  • 26. CROP YIELD BENEFITS:About 32 (range 21-57) million tonnes yield loss avoided in 2030 B. Black Carbon measures reduces air pollution & saves lives P
  • 27. Crop Benefits in Different Countries
  • 28. SLCPs as a way to achieve development goals (MDGs and Beyond)Issue of Short-Lived Climate Pollutants is closelylinked to many MDGs - pressing needs in LAC:• Health• Sustainable energy access• Food security• Urban development: waste, sanitation/ sewerage, and sustainable transport• Adverse climate change impacts
  • 29. How much does it cost? Costs of implementing 16 measuresGROUP 1: Cost Savings or Low Coste.g. Recovery and utilization of vented gas during oil production;Replacement of traditional brick kilns with more efficient kilnsGROUP 2: Moderate Cost,e.g. Coal mines: oxidation of ventilation methaneGROUP 3: High Cost,e.g. Applying Euro VI/6 standards to vehicles
  • 30. How much does it cost? Costs of implementing 16 measures 50% of black carbon and methane emission reductions: Low cost or no-cost  Recovery of methane, better fuel efficiency Black carbon measures • Improved stoves • Upgraded brick kilnsMethane measures• Recovery from fossil fuel production(coal mines; gas distribution)• Waste / landfill management
  • 31. Conclusions• Addressing SLCPs is a development issue – countries reducing emissions will benefit from improved health (avoid 2.4 million premature deaths; 40 000 in LAC+INDOOR!), crop yields (avoid > 30 million tonnes loss; approx. 5.5 million in LAC) every year• 16 identified measures, implemented by 2030, would reduce global warming by 0.5oC (0.2-0.7oC) in 2050 halving the rate of warming projected by the Reference Scenario• Substantial regional climate benefits: e.g. in the reduce warming by about 0.5 oC in LAC (range 0.2-0.7oC by 2050), reducing climate impacts over this period• Near-term measures would improve the chance of not exceeding 2oC target, but only if CO2 is also addressed, starting now (complementary strategies; not alternatives)• The identified measures are all currently in use in different regions around the world; much wider and more rapid implementation is required to achieve the full benefits• Many measures achieve cost savings over time.
  • 32. ‘An Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone’http://www.unep.org/dewa/Portals/67/pdf/BlackCarbon_SDM.pdf ‘Near-term Climate and Clean Air Benefits: Actions for Controlling Short-Lived Climate Forcers’ http://www.unep.org/publications/ebooks/SLCF/
  • 33. The share of global temperature reduction from methane measures
  • 34. The share of global temperature reduction from black carbon measures
  • 35. Regional Climate Changes: Preventing Disturbance of Rainfall Patterns Change in atmospheric forcing at 2030 relative to the reference case in the two models.• Dark areas: where the biggest energy change to the atmosphere occurs• This drives regional weather pattern changes
  • 36. Observed (left) and modelled (right) surface BC concentrations (ng/m3) (Koch et al., 2009a).• showing rather sparse measurements but reasonable Source: Koch et correlation between model and measurement al., 2009a
  • 37. Black carbon and ozone concentrations (daily averages) measured from March 2006 to February 2008 at the GAW- WMO Global station "Nepal Climate Observatory - Pyramid" at 5 097 m above mean sea level near Mt. Everest550 ng m-3 showing values comparable with polluted Source: Bonasoni et al., areas during several pre-monsoon day 2010
  • 38. Impact of the Measures on Health and Crop yields• Models give PM2.5 and ozone concentrations for health and crop yield impact assessment• Concentration-response relationships from literature used to evaluate global impacts Exposure of wheat to ozone in Pakistan Clean air Air with ambient ozone
  • 39. Warming in different latitude bands due to O3 and aerosols only following the reference scenario for emission projections from 2010 to 2030 and then assuming constant emissions at 2030 levels thereafter• Largest projected increases in Arctic
  • 40. Crop Benefits in Different Countries
  • 41. Temperature changes over 20th CenturySource: NASA GISS
  • 42. Effect of measures on emissions projected in 2030 relative to 2005 9 BC measures reduce ̴80% of BCReference: CH4 increases7 CH4 measures reduce ̴25% of CH4 (2005); or̴ 40% relative to 2030 BC measures reduce CO
  • 43. Health Benefits by Country
  • 44. Annual average surface temperature change (ºC) from implementing all measures• Dark areas: where the biggest temperature benefit occurs
  • 45. Effect of measures on emissions projected in 2030 relative to 2005 Relative to 2005 9 BC measures fully implemented in 2030 reduce approximately: • 80% of BC emissions •. 80% of OC emissions • 65% of CO emissions • 40% of NOx emissions 7 Methane measures fully implemented in 2030 reduce approximately: 25% of methane relative to 2005 emissions or 40% of methane relative to projected 2030