Climate change, glacier retreat and water                                          resources in the tropical Andes        ...
Observations of glacier retreat       Glacier Espejo, Pico Bolivar (5002 m), Venezuela1910                       1988     ...
2009Photo B. Francou
The retreat of tropical glaciers in Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia                        Vuille, Francou, Wagnon, et al., Eart...
20th century temperature trends      in the tropical Andes                 Near-surface temperature increase              ...
Annual mean temperature change               for the end of the 21st century           B2                                 ...
The impact of glacier retreat on runoff                                         Relevance of this process:                ...
The Cordillera Blanca and  the Rio Santa Valley                             Kaser, Juen, Georges et al., J. Hydrol., [2003...
Projected future runoff changes                                                                        in the Cordillera B...
Andean Climate Change Interamerican                 Observatory Network (ACCIÓN)Adaptation requires:- improving climate ch...
Andean Climate Change Interamerican                Observatory Network (ACCIÓN)ACCION activities include:- regional traini...
Mathias Vuille Presentation (2012)
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Mathias Vuille Presentation (2012)

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Mathias Vuille Presentation (2012)

  1. 1. Climate change, glacier retreat and water resources in the tropical Andes Mathias Vuille Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences University at Albany, State University of New YorkDana McGlone & Eric Franquist(Univ. at Albany, SUNY)Rocio Urrutia (Univ. Oxford)Doug Hardy, Ray Bradley (Univ. of •Mass., Amherst)Bernard Francou & BolivarCaceres (IRD, INAMHI, Quito) ACCION –Co-PIsGeorg Kaser (Univ. Innsbruck)Christian Huggel (Univ. Zurich)Waldo Lavado, Ken Takahashi &Elizabeth Silvestre (SENAMHI, IGP,& Univ. La Molina, Lima)Rene Garreaud & Andres Rivera(Univ. de Chile, Santiago & CECS,Valdivia)Bert de Bievre & Miguel Saravia(CONDESAN, Lima & Quito)Wouter Buytaert (Imperial College)
  2. 2. Observations of glacier retreat Glacier Espejo, Pico Bolivar (5002 m), Venezuela1910 1988 2008 Jahn [1931]; Schubert [1992, 1999]
  3. 3. 2009Photo B. Francou
  4. 4. The retreat of tropical glaciers in Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia Vuille, Francou, Wagnon, et al., Earth Sci. Rev., [2008]
  5. 5. 20th century temperature trends in the tropical Andes Near-surface temperature increase of 0.68°C since 1939 (~0.1°C decade-1) Vuille, Bradley, Werner, et al., Climatic Change, [2003] Vuille, Francou, Wagnon, et al., Earth Sci. Rev., [2008]
  6. 6. Annual mean temperature change for the end of the 21st century B2 A210.4 billion people, 15 billion people,550 ppm of CO2 by 2100 850 ppm of CO2 by 2100 Urrutia & Vuille, J. Geophys. Res., [2009]
  7. 7. The impact of glacier retreat on runoff Relevance of this process: - most important in regions such as Peru (rivers draining into seasonally arid lowlands (Kaser et al., PNAS, 2010) - less relevant in inner tropics where paramos can take on regulating function and where precipitation is less seasonally biased (Buytaert et al., 2010, HESS)Kaser, et al., J. Hydrol., [2003]
  8. 8. The Cordillera Blanca and the Rio Santa Valley Kaser, Juen, Georges et al., J. Hydrol., [2003] Vuille, Kaser & Juen, Global Planet. Change, [2008]
  9. 9. Projected future runoff changes in the Cordillera Blanca Parón Llanganuco Chancos wet dry wet dry wet dry 40 40 40 Runoff 20 20 20delta Q [%] delta Q [%] delta Q [%] change in 0 0 0 % in 2050 -20 -20 40.9% -20 31.0% 24.1% and 2080 for B1 and -40 -40 -40 10 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 month (Oct - Sept) month (Oct - Sept) month (Oct - Sept) A2 Quillcay Pachacoto scenarios wet dry wet dry 40 40 20 20 b1-2050delta Q [%] delta Q [%] a2-2050 b1-2080 0 0 a2-2080 17.4% -20 -20 9.7% -40 -40 Juen, Ph.D Univ. Innsbruck, [2006] 10 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Vuille, Francou, Wagnon, et al., Earth Sci. Rev., [2008] month (Oct - Sept) month (Oct - Sept)
  10. 10. Andean Climate Change Interamerican Observatory Network (ACCIÓN)Adaptation requires:- improving climate change resilience- a strengthening of local research institutions and enhanced capacity building- better networking in the region between scientists, policy- and decision-makers, water managers and affected segments of the local population- improved capacity for glacier Photo: M. Vuille monitoring & water resources management→ ACCION intends to provide a platform to promote these goals
  11. 11. Andean Climate Change Interamerican Observatory Network (ACCIÓN)ACCION activities include:- regional training and capacity building (offering workshops and training in glaciology and climate change science)- fellowships for S. American students to study in the US- providing information and tools for Photo: G. Kaser policy decisions- support outreach efforts and dialogue in collaboration with other units (e.g. CONDESAN, UNESCO-IHP)
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