Climate change in_a_living_landscape

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Climate change in_a_living_landscape

  1. 1. Climate change in a living landscapeConceptual and methodological aspects of a vulnerability assessment in the Eastern Cordillera Real of Colombia, Ecuador and Peru
  2. 2. Climate change in a living landscape:Conceptual and methodological aspects of a vulnerability assessment in the Eastern CordilleraReal of Colombia, Ecuador and PeruThis publication is adapted from Cambio climático en un paisaje vivo: vulnerabilidad y adaptación en la Cordillera RealOriental de Colombia, Ecuador y Perú. Cali: Fundación Natura -WWF Colombia.© WWFISBN: 978-958-8353-34-0Edited by: Editorial coordination:María Elfi Chaves Carmen Ana Dereix R.Forests and Climate Change Project Coordinator Publications and Brand OfficerWWF Colombia WWF ColombiaLuis Germán NaranjoConservation Director Photographs:WWF Colombia Luis Germán Naranjo WWF ColombiaSantiago de Cali, Colombia. november 2011 Design and Layout: El Bando Creativo With the support of:The geographic denominations in this map do not involve, on the part of WWF, judgment some or with respect to thelegal condition of Countries, Territories or Areas, nor with respect to drawn up of their borders or limits.
  3. 3. ContentIntroduction.............................................................................................................. 5Chapter 1: Determining vulnerabilityof Andean ecosystems to climate change:who is vulnerable to what??........................................................................... 7 Vulnerability of Andean ecosystems to climate change...........................................11Chapter 2: Vulnerability analysis methodologyfor the Eastern Cordillera Real................................................................... 13 Area of study.................................................................................................................................................................. 13 Evidence of climate change in the survey area.................................................................. 13 Exposure.............................................................................................................................................................................. 15 Sensitivity........................................................................................................................................................................... 16 System 1: Biodiversity...............................................................................................................................................................16 System 2: Hydrology..................................................................................................................................................................18 Water supply.................................................................................................................................................................. 19 Adaptative Capacity Index........................................................................................................................... 19 Calculation of socioeconomic variables......................................................................................20
  4. 4. Infrastructure...............................................................................................................................................................20 Environmental aspects...................................................................................................................................... 21 Calculation of the current adaptive capacity index...................................................... 21 Identification of vulnerability.................................................................................................................... 21 Main conclusions of the analysis made in ECR..................................................................22Chapter 3: Guidelines for a regional strategy...................................27 Effects of climate change and anthropogenic transformation of ecosystems................................................................................................................28 Possibilities and limitations for adaptation in the ECR............................................ 30 Institutional framework................................................................................................................................... 31 Guidelines for a regional strategy for climate change adaptation in the ECR (Colombia, Ecuador and Peru).................................................................................................................33 Operational recommendations for the implementation of the strategy.............................................................................................................35 References....................................................................................................................................................................... 37
  5. 5. IntroductionT he Eastern Cordillera Real (ECR) is one of the most biologically and culturally diverse ecoregions in the whole of the Northern Andes, and at the same time one of the most threatened from a multitudeof human induced pressures. From 2006 to 2009, WWF in Peru and Colom-bia and Fundación Natura Ecuador developed a tri-national project in theECR funded by the European Union that aimed to improve regional coordi-nation, maintain the integrity of natural ecosystems and promote sustain-able livelihoods. The project targeted actions that could contribute to re-duce major conservation threats, including climate change and the urgentneed to develop adaptation strategies. This work combined analysis andassessment of the vulnerability of ecological and social systems to climatechange with a participatory process with local and national stakeholders
  6. 6. for the development of adaptation hydrological and socio-economic) strategies. The analytical work pro- for the ECR demonstrate the need vided the technical information and for actions oriented at maintaining framework for the dialogue and de- the continued provision of ecosys- velopment of local and regional ad- tem services as well as the biological aptation plans. and cultural riches of the region. Pri- This document is a translated ority adaptation measures include summary of the original publication actions to develop and strengthen resulting from this initiative: Cambio the capacity and the production climático en un paisaje vivo: Vul- systems of the local communities nerabilidad y adaptación en la Cor- and institutions, aiming to maintain dillera Real Oriental de Colombia, and recover ecosystem resilience, Ecuador y Perú (WWF y Fundación strengthen a regional policy frame- Natura 2010). We have focused pri- work with considerations of vulner- marily on presenting the method- ability and adaptation to climate ological aspects of the vulnerability change and strengthen the capacity analysis, providing information on to generate and disseminate infor- Eastern Cordillera Real (ECR) to il- mation necessary to increase citi- lustrate how we applied the Turner zen participation in decision making II et al. (2003) three-pronged frame- processes. work for understanding vulnerabil- WWF Colombia and the authors ity of a system to environmental are deeply thankful to WWF UK for change. The results of the combined their support in the production of vulnerability analyses (biological, this document.6 Climate change in a living landscape
  7. 7. Chapter Determining vulnerability of Andean ecosystems 1 to climate change: who is vulnerable to what?1 1. Adapted from:T Naranjo, L.G. & C. he annual number of climate-related disasters within the Andean F. Suárez. 2010. Community of Nations between 2002 and 2006 doubled the figure Determinación de la vulnerabilidad reached between 1977 and 1981 (CAN 2008), a painful reminder of de ecosistemas andinos al cambiothe fragility of mountain ecosystems. The increase in the frequency and climático: quiénintensity of extreme weather events in the tropical Andes leading to these es vulnerable a qué? Pp. 17-24 En:disasters has been widely documented, but the consequences of these phe- Naranjo, L.G. (Ed). Cambio climáticonomena in the long term are still insufficiently understood. But despite the en un paisaje vivo:shortage of information on the latter, it is clear the imperative to develop vulnerabilidad y adaptaciónclimate change adaptation strategies at different scales aimed to maintain en la Cordilleraor even increase the resilience of ecosystems and local communities to Real Oriental de Colombia, Ecua-the impacts of climate change. A significant increase in temperature and dor y Perú. Cali: Fundación Naturachanges in precipitation patterns in the tropical Andes will likely result in -WWF.
  8. 8. universal (Downing 2003), and sci- entists from different disciplines usually differ in their use of the term (Adger et al. 2004, Füssel 2005, 2007).According to the third assess- ment report of the Intergovernmen- tal Panel on Climate Change (McCar- thy et al. 2001), vulnerability is “the degree to which a system is sus- ceptible to, or unable to cope with adverse effects of climate change, changes in the distribution of spe- including climate variability and ex- cies and ecosystems expected to tremes. Vulnerability is a function of occur within the next century, and the character, magnitude, and rate this will undoubtedly impair eco- of climate variation to which a sys- system integrity and the provision tem is exposed, its sensitivity, and of ecosystem services for local com- its adaptive capacity.” Following the munities (clean and reliable water tradition of the literature on risk, resources, biodiversity, and local cli- hazards, poverty and development, mate) and for the region as a whole this definition interprets the final (biodiversity, water and carbon) (Ur- outcomes of climatic events as the rutia & Vuille 2009). result of a combination of hazards Developing adaptation measures and the intrinsic vulnerability of a to secure the biodiversity riches system (Downing & Pathwardan and the well being of the inhabit- 2004). ants of the tropical Andes for years The application of this defini- to come requires understanding tion revolves around the answers how vulnerable different systems to several questions (Kienberger in the region are to the impacts of & Zeil 2005). First, it is necessary to climate change. This poses multiple identify the subject of vulnerability challenges since the complexity (who is vulnerable?) which, for a of Andean biotic communities, the given area, can be a landscape, a lo- variety of socio-economic systems cal community, or a component of present throughout the region and local biodiversity. In recent literature the differential response to climate on vulnerability to climate change, variation from place to place, due the subject is usually referred to as to the spatial heterogeneity of these a system. mountains, impede a characteriza- The second question defines to tion of vulnerability applicable to what is vulnerable the system of the whole region. Consequently, the interest (its exposure); depending on ECR assessment initiated with the the local manifestation of change, a review of the basic conceptual is- system can be more likely to be af- sues related to climate change. fected either directly and/or indi- Vulnerability: The definition of rectly (a classic example is the expo- the term “vulnerability” is far from sure of coastal settlements to rising8 Climate change in a living landscape
  9. 9. sea level). Therefore, the exposure tem of interest become vulnerable,index is related with the influences which means to analyze the basicor stimuli affecting a system, it cap- properties and processes of society,tures both the weather events and economy, and policy, resulting in itsthe climate patterns affecting the capacity to adapt to new conditionssystem, as well as overarching fac- (its resilience).tors such as changes in the systems Turner II et al. (2003) developedcaused by climate-related impacts. a three-pronged framework for A third question addresses the understanding vulnerability of asensitivity of the system in terms of system to environmental change,the specific intrinsic properties that which addresses these questionsdetermine the degree to which it (Fig. 2). Their model illustrates thewill respond to a change in climatic complex interactions involved inconditions. Sensitive systems readily this kind of analysis and highlightsreact to climate variation and there- the multiple factors that potentiallyfore can be perceptibly affected by affect the vulnerability of a particu-small climate changes. Understand- lar system in a given location. Thising system sensitivity also requires framework avoids uncoupling hu-understanding the thresholds after man and environmental conditions,which they begin to respond to cli- allowing for the identification ofmate variables, of the degree of ad- linkages among the different vari-justments the system can make and ables determining the exposure,of the reversibility of the changes sensitivity and resilience of a sys-undergone by the system. tem. This approach is particularly And last, but not least, it is im- useful when dealing with stressorsportant to understand under what or threats of a compounding nature.circumstances (when?) will the sys- Threat of an Event - Wealth (Economy) Exposure Sensitivity - Technology and Infrastructure - Information, knowledge and Skills Potential Impacts Adaptive Capacity - Institutions - Equity - Social Capital Vulnerability to CC - ...Figure 1. Conceptual model of climate change vulnerabilityincluded in the third report to IPCC (Ionescu et al., 2005). Conceptual and methodological aspects of a vulnerability assessment in the Eastern Cordillera Real of Colombia, Ecuador and Peru 9
  10. 10. Vulnerability Exposure Sensitivity Elasticity Components Humane Individuals, households, Human / social capital Response classes, firms, states, (population trend, institutions, Impact Existing ecosystems economic structures) Loss of life, programs, economic policies, production, autonomous environmental Environmental Conditions choices services Features Natural assets/bio-physical attributes Frequency, (soils, water, climate, minerals, Adjustment magnitude, duration structure and ecosystem function) and adaptation New programs, policies and autonomous choicesFigure 2. An integrated conceptual framework to assessvulnerability (adapted from Turner et al. 2003). Adaptation reflects the capacity the social, political, economic and of a system to respond to a change, cultural environment of the sys- by using some of its properties to tems analyzed, because most of the face external influences. Adapta- measures taken to maintain their tion can be planned or autonomous. resiliency will depend on societal Planned adaptation is a change responses. For instance, Schröeter made anticipating climate varia- (2007) takes into account three ma- tion, is an inner, strategic, conscious jor components of the adaptive ca- effort to increase the capacity of pacity of a system to global change: a system to face (or to avoid) the awareness, ability and action, which negative consequences of climate are determined, respectively, by change. Therefore, and following equality and knowledge, technol- Aguilar (2007), the vulnerability will ogy and infrastructure, and flexibil- increase as a function of the mag- ity and economic power. Both the nitude of a climate-related hazard, components and their determinants and will decrease as the resilience vary from place to place, and there- and the adaptive capacity of the fore mapping socio-economic indi- system are strengthened. Accord- cators at finer scales allow for an ing to Turner II et al. (2003), one last interpretation of the human compo- set of variables that is necessary to nent of the resilience of landscape tackle for an integrated assessment units and ecosystems. Consequently of vulnerability corresponds to cop- mapping socio-economic variables ing, response, and the capacity of at this same level of resolution is adjustment of the systems under also necessary to gain insights into consideration. Given the accelerated the human conditions that make rate of change of climate variables, a given system prone to suffer the this is largely a matter of examining impacts of climate change. Popula-10 Climate change in a living landscape
  11. 11. tion density, wealth, education, eco- of plants and animals) and thenomic structure, food systems and adaptive capacity as describedinstitutions are unevenly distributed above.in the region, and different groupsand places within countries differ in Vulnerability of Andeantheir ability to cope with climate re- ecosystems to climatelated impacts (Olmos 2001, Aguilar change2007, Downing & Ziervogel 2005). Following this conceptual frame- In terms of exposure, temperaturework, a protocol to assess vulner- has increased by 0.1oC per decadeability to climate change at the since 1939 at the regional scale, andsub-regional and local level in the the rate of warming has tripled overTropical Andes would involve at the last 25 years (Vuille & Bradleyleast seven steps: 2000). Changes in precipitation are1. Choosing the system of interest less consistent, but there is evidence and the components that are of areas presenting either a signifi- more likely affected by climate cant increase or decrease of annual change. rainfall (Urrutia & Vuille 2009). The2. Obtaining historic meteorologi- frequency of extreme weather cal and hydrological data sets events has also increased through- pertaining to the scale of analy- out (IPCC 2007). Despite these evi- sis. dences, available information of3. Gathering secondary informa- current climate is still at a broad tion on the spatial distribution scale, and the process of downscal- of biophysical information of ing it for specific sectors scale has interest (e.g. vegetation cover, only recently begun. However, it is species ranges, distribution of evident that climate change at the crops and other rural produc- regional level is already affecting a tion systems, etc.) wide range of subjects, from popu-4. Downscaling regional models lations and species to entire ecosys- of future climate. tems and landscapes, from individ-5. Modeling expected distribution ual households to communities, and of variables of interest under from firms to economic sectors. different climate change sce- The sensitivity of all these sub- narios. jects to climate change stems from6. Map the socio-economic sensi- the most prominent ecological fea- tivity and the adaptive capacity ture of the Tropical Andes, that is, of the area of interest to major the spatial heterogeneity of these disturbances of their environ- mountains (see for example, WWF ments. 2001). Ecosystem replacement along7. Estimate a vulnerability index both altitudinal and latitudinal gra- combining the resulting over- dients is paramount throughout the lays of ecological sensitivity (e.g. region, and results in complex mo- expected shifts of life zones, saics composed of relatively small ecosystems and/or distribution landscape units that, because of Conceptual and methodological aspects of a vulnerability assessment in the Eastern Cordillera Real of Colombia, Ecuador and Peru 11
  12. 12. their size, can be severely affected and amount of runoff, affecting wa- by climate change and extreme ter resource availability and hydro- weather events. For this reason, power (Kundzewitz 2007). Changes modeling the spatial distribution of in rainfall timing and intensity have life zones, ecosystems, hydrological resulted in increased frequency, in- resources and species at a finer scale tensity and scope of droughts or using downscaled climate variables floods, with the resulting losses of is a necessity if one wants to under- agricultural crops and human lives. stand how sensitive a given eco- This makes it necessary to carry out logical or socio-economic system is regional and local assessments of from a biophysical perspective. ecosystem services in relation to cli- Resilience. As a whole, Andean mate variables, as the vulnerability socio-economic systems are partic- of socio-economic systems will be ularly sensitive given the high levels largely determined by the availabil- of poverty in the region, as poverty ity of the resource base upon which limits the adaptive capabilities of they depend. an area (Watson et al. 1998), and as Although the impacts of regional Ribot (1996) pointed out, inequality and local climate change on specific and marginalization are important components of ecological systems determinants of vulnerability. are still poorly understood, shifts All the provinces of the Ande- in species distribution and both re- an countries suffered at least one duction and/or increase of natural hydro-meteorological event be- ecosystems are likely to result. In- tween 1970 and 2007 (CAN 2008), creasing temperatures drive the up- and the effects of such events as ward migration of plant communi- well as of the regional trends of cli- ties which may drive changes in the mate change are manifold. Increas- ranges of many animal and plant ing temperature has caused the ac- species adapted to specific habitats celeration in the loss of snow caps that occupy a narrow range along and glaciers throughout the region altitudinal and latitudinal climatic (IPCC 2007), which in turn has led gradients (Epstein et al. 1998, Rel- to changes in the seasonal pattern man et al. 2008).12 Climate change in a living landscape
  13. 13. Chapter Vulnerability analysis methodology for the Eastern Cordillera Real2 2 2. Adapted from:Area of study Hernández, O.L., C.F. Suárez & L.G.T G. Naranjo. 2010. he Eastern Cordillera Real (ECR) extends from the eastern slopes of Vulnerabilidad al the Colombian Massif to the Abra de Porculla 6° S in Peru. This region Cambio Climático en la Cordillera occupies 109,400 km2 and includes the mountains of the Amazon Real Orien- tal (Colombia,watershed between a spot elevation of 300 m and the watershed to the Pa- Ecuador y Perú).cific slope. The rugged topography of the range leads to a complex network Pp. 25-64 En: Naranjo, L.G. (Ed).of rivers, which corresponds to seven large basins (Table 1, Figure 3). Cambio climático en un paisaje vivo: vulnerabilidadEvidence of climate change in the survey area y adaptación en la Cordillera Real Oriental deChanges are showing in the Andean region both in temperature and pre- Colombia, Ecua- dor y Perú. Cali:cipitation levels and frequency of extreme events, especially more intense Fundación Naturarainfall and strong and short winds (Soto, 2008). High mountain ecosystems -WWF.
  14. 14. Table 1. Extension of the watersheds in the study area. Watershed Area (Km2) Watershed Area (Km2) Caqueta 7,616.90 Santiago 14,058.91 Putumayo 19,802.31 Zamora/Cenepa 23,919.82 Napo 9,837.05 Marañon 15,543.72 Pastaza 1,623.65 TOTAL 109,401.72 Colombia Caqueta Putumayo Napo Ecuador Pastaza Santiago Eastern Cordillera Real International boundries High watersheds Caqueta Zamora/Cenepa Marañon Napo Pastaza Putumayo Santiago Marañon Zamora/Cenepa Peru 0 25 50 100 150 Kilometers Figure 3. Study area and upper watershed.14 Climate change in a living landscape
  15. 15. as the glaciers of Colombia, Ecuador dard deviation of monthly data isand Peru have had unprecedented clear for the past three decades,declines in recent decades and most which means an increase of the dif-of them would be destined to dis- ference in the amount of rainfall be-appear in a period of less than 30 tween the dry and wet months.years. According to the first national A climate change vulnerabilitycommunication on climate change assessment is important to respondin Colombia (Ideam, 2001), it is con- to future risks. For our evaluationfirmed that during the period from of the Eastern Cordillera Real we1961 to 1990 the average air tempera- have followed, in general terms, theture in Colombia increased at a rate points outlined in the protocol pro-of 0.1 to 0.2°C per decade, while the posed in the previous section fromannual rainfall experienced chang- the conceptual model integratedes between -4% and +6% in differ- Turner II et al. (2003), consideringent regions. In Ecuador, the mea- the sensitivity systems and criteriasurement of changes in average defined by Intergovernmental Paneltemperature shows an increasing on Climate Change (IPCC) (Table 2).trend of 1.5° Cover the period from1930 to 1993, with higher evidence of Exposurethis change in the inter-Andean re- For our analysis of exposure, wegion compared to the coastal region used the following variables: eco-(National Committee on Climate, systems, species and water resourc-2001). The trend in rainfall is very es, as well as changing weather con-irregular, with a greater inclination ditions which these attributes willto decline. Finally, in Peru in the last face under future climate scenarios.50 years there has been an increase These scenarios were generated byin the maximum temperature of the Ministry of Environment of Ec-about 1.3°C (0.24°C per decade) and a uador (MAE, 2008) through the re-general decrease in precipitation of gional circulation model Precis, a re-3% (National Environmental Council, gional modeling system developed2001). Locally, there is a similar trend by the Hadley Centre in England,of temperature increase between using the ECHAM4 model for the1989 and 2005. A2 and B2 scenarios. We consider The region of the ECR has en- ECHAM4 model changes in temper-dured a series of climatic anomalies ature, precipitation and humiditywith unusual intensity and frequen-cy in the historical record of ourtime. Storms, floods and landslides, Table 2. Elements of analysis of vulnerabilitymainly related to events of the El to climate change from the IPCC definition.Niño weather phenomenon, have System Sensitivity Criteriahit the three countries thereby pro- Climatic niche of Change in the assembly of theducing local economic losses as well species of birds species analyzedas loss of human lives. According to Biodiversity and plantsan analysis of the rainfall recorded Life Zones Change in the distribution of life zonesin the meteorological stations of theECR, a slight increase in the stan- Hydrology Water balance Change in runoff Conceptual and methodological aspects of a vulnerability assessment in the Eastern Cordillera Real of Colombia, Ecuador and Peru 15
  16. 16. and the scenarios A2 and B2 for the category in order to calculate the decades of 2030 and 2050. sensitivity. In the case of species, we have As proxies of ecosystems we assumed the exposure variables took Holdridge’s (1967) life zones used by Cuesta et al. (2006), ob- as a starting point for our analysis. tained from the TYN SC 2.0 database Under this system, certain groups (Mitchell et al., 2004), HadCM3 mod- of ecosystems or plant associations el, A2 and B2 scenarios for decade of correspond to ranges of tempera- 2050. Assuming that the A2 and B2 ture, precipitation and humidity, so scenarios are similar to the reality that divisions of these balanced cli- of developing countries, i.e. a steady matic parameters can be defined in growth of its population and frag- order to group them into life zones. mented development in technology, The Holdridge life zones are a model and also taking into account differ- of potential areas, as the current and ences in terms of emissions (Stage projected areas affected are not tak- A2 - pessimistic and B2 -optimistic), en into account. we performed analysis in relation to Using the Bioclim layer of tem- these estimates. However, it should perature and precipitation (Hijmans be noted that these scenarios can- et al., 2005) we modeled the Hold- not be considered forecasts as they ridge life zones for the current pe- have many uncertainties. riod and for the scenarios A2 and B2 of climate change. In order to Sensitivity do so, we averaged the estimated values ​​ the years 2021-2030 and for We analyzed, for each system, the years 2051-2060 and applied the its response to climate change sce- classification of Holdridge adjusted narios. Thus, we took into account to the study area (Table 3). the change in the distribution of life The sensitivity to climate change zones, the change in species assem- of a region in terms of life zones is blage as an effect of temperature given by the potential change in change and humidity change in their geographical distribution. Ar- runoff (sensitivity criteria for eco- eas with drastic changes in climate systems, species and water resourc- variables represent potential chang- es) in response to projected changes es in life zones, which in turn repre- in temperature, precipitation and sent areas with varying degrees of humidity. sensitivity. To select areas of great- est change in the ECR, we made ​​ a System 1: Biodiversity rough map which compares the life The overall sensitivity for bio- zones in the year 2030 and the pres- diversity is the product of the sum ent. We additionally did the same of the areas which are sensitive for analysis comparing the life zones in species and areas which are sensi- 2050 and 2030 to locate areas with tive for life zones in each scenario differences attributable to the ef- (A2 and B2). These areas were re- fects of climate change in each sce- classified by map algebra into one nario.16 Climate change in a living landscape
  17. 17. Table 3. Adjustment ranges for the calculation of life zones. Upper Humidity provinces Elevation Temperature Precipitation Range (Ombrothermal Index - Io) 1 0 – 1100 Basal < 1.5 < 62.5 < 0.1 Ultra – hyper - arid 2 1100 – 2100 Sub - Andean 1.5 – 3 62.5 – 125 0.1 – 0.3 Hyper - arid 3 2100 – 3200 Andean 3 – 12 125 – 250 0.3 – 1 Arid 4 >3200 Paramo 12 – 24 250 – 500 1–2 Semiarid 5 > 24 500 – 1000 2 – 3.6 Dry 6 1000 – 2000 3.6 – 6 Subhumid 7 2000 – 4000 6 – 12 Wet 8 4000 – 8000 12 – 24 Hyper humid 9 > 24 Ultra – hyper –humid On the other hand, the sensitiv- species are endemic and some are inity of birds and plants to climate some category of threat.change was assumed as the poten- From these models, we evaluat-tial degree of response in their geo- ed the potential impact of climategraphical distribution. Thus, model- change by analyzing the spatialing of the climate niches of species patterns of change in relation toallowed to determine areas which the different climate scenarios, ac-are more sensitive than others, from cording to Thuiller et al. (2005) andthe estimated number of species Broennimann et al. (2006). To dothat could change their distribution this, we took the spatial patterns ofin response to climate change. species generated by Cuesta et al. For the analysis of the Eastern (2006) and quantified the numberCordillera Real we took as surro- and percentage of species absentgates for biodiversity the Maxent (loss) or new (gain) for each pixel inmodeling (Phillips et al., 2006)3 made​​ future climatic conditions. Thus, weby Cuesta et al. (2006) about the estimated the turnover rate of theexpected distribution for the year species under the assumption that2050 and the current distribution of a species can reach any area with42 species of birds and 47 species of suitable environmental conditionsvascular plants in the northern An- (universal dispersion) and the cur-des to the A2 and B2 scenarios of cli- rent vegetation cover is maintainedmate change of the HadCM3. Several over time, using the formula:of these species have characteristics (G + L)that make them good indicators of T= x100 [1] (SR+G)diversity. Their time and mode ofradiation is related to the uplift ofthe Andes and the Pleistocene cli- Where:matic changes, their distribution T: volume of species;patterns have a high replacement G: gain of species; 3. It is one of thelevel throughout the environmental L: loss of species; global climate models of regula-gradients within the region, several SR: species richness present. tion. Conceptual and methodological aspects of a vulnerability assessment in the Eastern Cordillera Real of Colombia, Ecuador and Peru 17
  18. 18. A value of 0 indicates that the as- Engineering Handbook (2004) and semblage of species does not change its application, using tools of Geo- (i.e., no loss or gain of species), while graphic Information Systems (GIS) 100 indicates that the assemblage devised by Castillo et al. (2007).This of species is completely different tool relates precipitation with hy- in the new conditions. According to drological soil complex and prior the change in the assembly (T) of moisture condition to establish the species sensitivity thresholds were actual direct runoff. To estimate proposed, which were divided into future supply, similar conditions of four ranges (using quintiles) for both soil and vegetation cover over the birds and to plants in each scenario. current state are assumed,and the To select the most sensitive sites for differences of precipitation are es- each group we identified the high- tablished according to the climate est quintiles, then added the most change scenarios (ECHAM4 model, sensitive areas for each group of A2 and B2, MAE, 2008), as change species in each scenario. factor in water balance (Figure 4). Runoff (Pe)4 is the amount of wa- System 2: Hydrology ter after a rain, which flows, drains Water resources sensitivity is or trickles over the soil surface. The given by the proportional change runoff flows into streams, which (%) in todays total water supply increase their volume with water compared to periods 2030 and 2050, coming from faraway places and as expressed in formula 2: decrease soon after the rain ends. The excess water from the rains Qr that fails to enter the soil flows over Sensitivity = x100 [2] the surface of the earth, depend- Current Q ing on various factors such as land use, vegetation cover, management Where: practices, hydrologic soil group and Qr is the reference water supply precipitation. Runoff is calculated as: projected by 2030 and 2050, ex- pressed in flow m3/sec. Qcurrent is the current Water supply (Pi - 0.2 S)2 Pe = [3] flow, expressed in m3/sec. (Pi + 0.8 S)4. The value of Methodologically, in order to es-precipitation for Where:the formula Pe timate the current and future water Pe: Runoff in mm;is daily, howeverthis balance is to supply we used the proposal made Pi: daily rainfall in mm;have multi-year by the Soil Conservation Service S: Maximum retention in the water-average monthlyprecipitation. (SCS, 1964) included in the National shed in mm. 18 Climate change in a living landscape
  19. 19. Hydrological Precipitation Expected Rainfall per annum Soil Complex (climate change scenarios) Current Runoff Future Runoff Current Water Supply Current Water Supply Sensitivity (% change) Figure 4. Model for sensitivity of water resources. Equation 4 has a limitation that is Wherethe estimation of S, but it generally And is the surface runoff in mm;allows a good approximation of Q to Q is the total monthly flow m3/sec;watersheds by land use. The value T is the number of seconds in aof S is equal to the shelf capacity of month;the soil. S was defined according to A is the area of the basin regardingthe Curve Number (CN), described the hydrometric station.below according to: Q = Y x A x 10 [6] 3 2540 T S= - 25.4 [4] CN Adaptative Capacity Index Adaptability refers to the abilityWater supply to evolve and adapt to a changing Taking into account the expres- environment. Natural and humansion of runoff, expressed in terms systems can interact to overcomeof water depth in millimeters, Q is the changes. This adaptation iscleared, which determines the sur- strengthened by the potential offace water supply for each period available resources in a given areaof aggregation, which is monthly in to generate new processes or im-this case. plement new techniques (Aguilar, 2007; Sietchiping, 2006). Similarly, QxT the IPCC (2007) states that “The Y= [5] A x 103 ability to adapt is dynamic and is influenced by the productive base of society, in particular, the assets Conceptual and methodological aspects of a vulnerability assessment in the Eastern Cordillera Real of Colombia, Ecuador and Peru 19
  20. 20. of natural and manmade capital, rural population (also defined as networks and social benefits, hu- the rest) of the most recent census man capital and institutions, gover- in each country: 2005 for the Co- nance, national income, health and lombian municipalities, 2001 for the technology. It is also influenced by a cantons in Ecuador and 2005 for variety of climatic and non-climatic the provinces in Peru (respectively, stress factors, as well as develop- Dane5 2005, INEC6 2001, INEI7 2005). ment policies”. Data of Unsatisfied Basic Needs Under this premise, and with (NBI) for Ecuador was provided by reference to the IPCC Technical Pa- TNC and for Peru information was per V (2002), on climate change and taken from the Poverty Map of 1996. biodiversity, which states that the Data were standardized or normal- ability of countries to implement ized from 0 to 100 to make the cal- adaptation activities is related to culations socioeconomic index (ISE), the consideration of economic, so- which is based on the following rela- cial and environmental aspects, we tionship for calculation: have developed the following indi- cators that continue the previous Dp+In+Te+An+NBI guidelines. Thus, a true picture is ISE = [7] portrayed of the conditions of ad- 5 aptation in the ECR (Figure 5). Where:5. Dane: NationalBureau of Statis- ISE, is the socioeconomic index;tics of Colombia. Calculation of Dp, is the population density;6. NICE: NationalInstitute of Statis- socioeconomic variables In, the number of infants and chil-tics and Censusesof Ecuador. Socioeconomic variables are dren given by the population7. INEI: National measured by the political-adminis- under 10 years;Institute of Statis-tics and Informat- trative divisions of each country in Te, is the number of older adults orics of Peru. Level 3. We used information from seniors over 65 years; An, is the number of people who are illiterate; Socioeconomic Infrastructure Environmental NBI, is the index of unsatisfied basic needs. Population Accessibility Percentage Density Index intervened • Roads Infrastructure Child • Slopes Percentage population • Villages not intervened Infrastructure is a factor which, • Vegetation Cover the same as others, can have sev- Elderly eral interpretations, depending on Population the perspective from which it is an- alyzed, because it can help or hin- Illiteracy der the implementation of activities addressing the reduction of vulner- UBN – Unsatisfied Basic Needs ability of the systems analyzed. The existence of a road or an area easily Figure 5. Themes and variables used in the current adaptation capacity of the ECR. 20 Climate change in a living landscape
  21. 21. accessible, therefore, could facilitate in relation to the extension ofthe intervention and subsequent each administrative unit locatedenvironmental degradation, thus geographically.making it an element that restrictsthe ability of adaptation (negative Calculation of the currentelement). Moreover, other factors adaptive capacity indexmust be included in this analysis, After doing the analysis descri-such as the existence and operation bed above, we averaged the stan-of monitoring systems in biodiver- dardized values of the three varia- ​​sity, or early warning systems, that bles (socio-economic, infrastructureideally take into account indicators and environmental) for the rate ofwhich give an insight into the sensi- current capacity of the ECR, accor-tivity and changes related to climat- ding to equation 8.ic variables. These would be itemsthat promote adaptation capacity(positive). However, these initiatives ISE+II+IAare null and do not have adequate ICA = [8] 3information; this is why they werenot taken into account in the end.Therefore we have proposed an ac- Identificationcessibility index for assessing ad- of vulnerabilityaptation capacity in the context of The grouping of sensitivity withinfrastructure. the index of adaptive capacity, pro- vides scenarios that allow a view ofEnvironmental aspects vulnerability in the Eastern Cordille- We selected two indicators of the ra Real (Table 4). Thus, we have de-implications of human activities on termined four scenarios of vulner-natural resources. When interpreted ability according to the proposal ofin the context of adaptation capac- Downing (2003), taking into accountity, they represent a quantitative ap- the degree of risk / climate impacts,proximation of how much human previously classified in high andbeings can do for or against biodi- low; adaptive capacity classifiedversity and environmental services. as High, Medium and Low; and the identification of the high-risk group• Percentage intervened, given as as vulnerable communities. the extent of transformed eco- systems in relation to a particu- lar area, which in this case are Table 4. Grouping climatic risks and adaptive capacity. the political-administrative divi- Adaptation Capacity sions. Risks Low Medium High• Percentage unprotected, defined Areas of high Areas of medium Areas of low High as the degree to which an ad- vulnerability vulnerability vulnerability ministrative unit does not have Low High residual Low residual risk Sustainability risks conservation areas. It is reflected Conceptual and methodological aspects of a vulnerability assessment in the Eastern Cordillera Real of Colombia, Ecuador and Peru 21
  22. 22. Main conclusions of the • The modeling of precipitation analysis made in ECR shows a slight trend to increase in the ECR, but with significant Due to limitations in available local variations from -20 to 60% data and analysis procedures, the and considerable variations results of the analysis presented from year to year. have a considerable margin of un- • The only evident trend in precip- certainty, so the interpretations that itation change is the continued emerge from such analysis should increase for the upper basin of be taken as preliminary. However, the Pastaza River in Ecuador. in accordance with the precaution- ary principle, it is urgent to initiate • The greatest variation in the development of adaptation mea- distribution of life zones of the sures for the most sensitive ar- ECR would be held in the Up- eas, with less adaptive capacity or per Pastaza River in Ecuador. which are more vulnerable, so they The upper reaches of the rivers can respond to the new challenges Napo and Caqueta have similar posed by the current trends in cli- trends which are also close to mate change. In order to guide the 50% change in the extent of the participatory construction of local, life zones. national and regional adaptation to • Nine life zones may increase the ECR, the main conclusions of their extension under the A2 this analysis are presented below: scenario and 10 under the B2 • A gradual increase in the aver- scenario by 2030, while nine age monthly temperature in the others would decrease by 2050 ECR of up to 20C is expected for under the A2 scenario and eight the year 2099. under the B2 scenario (Table 5, Fig 6).22 Climate change in a living landscape
  23. 23. • Desert scrubs and dry forests are tiago / Cenepa and Marañon the only life zones which tend to against the A2 and the Napo increase surface for both scenar- and Caqueta basins reach their ios in the two periods considered. highest values ​​ sensitivity in of Glaciers, the very humid Andean B2 scenario. forest and the Andean rainforest • Estimation of surface water would tend to decrease under supply revealed that the San- both climate change scenarios. tiago river basin (upstream of• Of the fifteen life zones rep- the Marañon River) is the East- resented in the existing pro- ern Cordillera Real’s sub – basin tected areas in the ECR, seven with lowest water levels. The increased in area over 100% and basins of the rivers Zamora and another five areas have de- Putumayo, at Bomboiza and An- creased in comparatively lower gosturas, are the stations that proportions against the two cli- have the highest flows. mate change scenarios. • The expected variations in river• The values ​​ expected change of flows over the ECR for the years in species assemblages in the 2030 and 2060 are directly re- ECR reaches the highest values​​ lated to the variation in rainfall. in the upper basins of the Napo • The sensitivity of the sub – ba- and Pastaza rivers for the two sins shows different trends climate change scenarios. in the two scenarios. Some of• Levels of sensitivity of the spe- them are positive and some cies considered surely underes- negative. timate the impact the variations • Improved relations of expected on the composition and struc- water yield in liters / sec / km2 ture of biotic communities of can be evidenced in the basins the ECR could have, since the as- of the Caqueta, Putumayo and sumption of a specific response Zamora rivers. In general, no to changes in the individual cli- significant changes are found matic niche of the species does between the two periods evalu- not take into account the con- ated, except for the basins of sequences which the change an Pastaza and Santiago, where organism’s distribution could yields improved (Figure 7). have on the populations of those • The upper basins of the Caqueta, species with which it interacts. Putumayo, Pastaza and Mara-• The highest values ​​ biodiver- of ñon rivers are moderately vul- sity sensitivity of the system nerable to the two scenarios (A2 correspond to the Pastaza basin and B2), while those of the Napo in both scenarios. Much more Zamora / Cenepa, Santiago and marked changes occur in the Marañon are more vulnerable to basins of the Putumayo, San- the first of these two scenarios (Figure 6). Conceptual and methodological aspects of a vulnerability assessment in the Eastern Cordillera Real of Colombia, Ecuador and Peru 23
  24. 24. Table 5. List of sensitive and vulnerable sites in the ECR for the Biodiversity System. Watershed Scenario A2 Scenario B2 1. PuraceCorridor - Guacharos and 1. PuraceCorridor - Guacharos and Serrania de los Churumbelos Serrania de los Churumbelos (Municipalities of San Agustin, (municipalities of San Agustin, Caqueta Santa Rosa and Piamonte) Santa Rosa and Piamonte) 2. Doña Juana - CascabelVolcanic 2. Doña Juana-CascabelVolcanic Complex (municipalities of Santa Complex (municipalities of Santa Rosa and San Francisco) Rosa and San Francisco) 1. Source of the Putumayo river 1. Source of the Putumayo River (municipalities of Sibundoy, (municipalities Sibundoy, Colon, Colon, Santiago, north of Santiago, north of Villagarzon) Putumayo Villagarzon) 2. Guamuez Basin (southern Pasto 2. Guamuez Basin (southern Pasto and northern municipality of and northern municipality of Orito) Orito) 1. Southwest Antisana Ecological Reserve (western Canton 1. Central part of the Tena Canton Archidona) Napo 2. Santa Clara, Arajuno Cantons 2. Central part of the Tena Canton 3. High part of Loreto 3. Santa Clara, Arajuno Cantons 4. High part of Loreto 1. Upperbasin of the Pastaza 1. Upper basin of the Pastaza (cantons Latacunga, Saquisilí, (cantons Latacunga, Saquisilí, Pujilí and Salcedo, Ambato and Pujilí and Salcedo) San Pedro de Pelileo, Guano, Pastaza 2. Upper and middle parts of Riobamba, ColtaGuamote) Canton Pastaza 2. Upper and middle parts of 3. Canton Huamboya Canton Pastaza 3. Canton Huamboya 1. Southwest Morona canton (in the 1. Southwest Morona canton (in the Santiago PN Sangay) PN Sangay) 2. Logroño Canton 2. Logroño Canton 1. Watershed Media (Limón 1. Watershed Media (LemonIndanza, Indanza, San Juan Bosco, San Juan Bosco, Gualaquiza, El Gualaquiza, El Pangui, Pangui, Yantzazaand Centinela Zamora / Cenepa Yantzazaand Centinela del del Condor) Condor) 2. Middle basin - lower (province of 2. Middle basin - lower (province of Condorcanqui) Condorcanqui) 1. National Shrine Tabaconas 1. National Shrine Tabaconas - Namballe; San Ignacio and - Namballe; San Ignacio and Marañon Huancabamba province Huancabamba province 2. Bagua Province 2. Bagua Province24 Climate change in a living landscape
  25. 25. Scenario B2 Very high High Medium Very low Low Scenario A2 Vulnerability Minor Major Adaptation capacity Sensible sites for biodiversity Scenario B2 Scenario A2Figure 6. Vulnerability to climate change of the major watersheds of the Eastern Cordillera Real. Conceptual and methodological aspects of a vulnerability assessment in the Eastern Cordillera Real of Colombia, Ecuador and Peru 25
  26. 26. Sensible sites for hydric resources 26 Caquetá Putumayo Caquetá Caquetá Napo Adaptation capacity Putumayo Putumayo PastazaClimate change in a living landscape Santiago Caquetá Napo Napo Zamora/Cenepa Putumayo High negative Low negative Pastaza Pastaza Low positive Napo Marañón Medium positive High positive Very high positive Santiago Santiago Scenario A2 - 2050 Pastaza Santiago Zamora/Cenepa Zamora/Cenepa Caquetá Putumayo Zamora/Cenepa Marañón Marañón Napo Minor Marañón Pastaza Major Scenario A2 Scenario B2 Santiago Figure 7. Vulnerable areas for the water sector in the Eastern Cordillera Real. Very low High Zamora/Cenepa Vulnerability Medium Low Very high High negative Low negative Marañón Low positive Medium positive High positive Very high positive Scenario B2 - 2050
  27. 27. Chapter Guidelines for a regional strategy 3T he assessment of vulnerability to climate change is important to re- spond to future risks. In the case of the Eastern Cordillera Real (ECR) there are serious reasons for concern (see conclusions chart of theanalysis).For this reason, and in order to help develop a regional strategy toaddress at different scales the multiple threats arising from climate changein the ECR, in this section we propose a set of guidelines derived from acombination of exercises and workshops held under the project “A LivingLandscape.” We hope that the guidelines outlined here will form the basisfor a collegiate effort that results in regional integration around the con-servation and sustainable development of the ecosystems of the EasternCordillera Real, regarding the challenges and threats they face in relation tothe global climate change.
  28. 28. 2) its associated impacts (massive changes in the distribution of eco- systems and species, increased loss of agricultural crops), 3) the sensitiv- ity resulting from cultural factors and practices (extensive grazing, in- adequate and illegal exploitation of timber and non - timber forest prod- ucts, industrial expansion of forest and agricultural plantations, un- sustainable systems of small-scale production and the development of mega infrastructure projects), and 4) Effects of climate change sociocultural response and capabil- ity that emerge from existing insti- and anthropogenic tutional policy frameworks and the transformation of level of public awareness about en- ecosystems vironmental vulnerability. The impacts of climate change The relative importance of on the mountain ecosystems of the threats varies between basins and ECR cannot be interpreted if we do between larger units of landscape not sufficiently examine their rela- within each basin. However, one tionships with the effects resulting way to examine them according to from human activities. The ecologi- their priority at regional level is to cal integrity of mountain ecosys- assign to each threat ordinal score tems in the ECR is altered by the according to three criteria: extent, change of hydro-meteorological severity and urgency. The results regimes, but these effects are en- of an analysis of this nature (Table hanced in many cases by patterns 6) identify the expansion of cattle of land use (Fig. 8). ranching, inappropriate and illegal In this model, it is clear that the exploitation of forest products and threats arising from exposure of the timber and unsustainable produc- landscape units to climate change tion systems on a small scale as the at a regional scale are also other most urgent threats to be addressed factors resulting from anthropo- to maintain the resilience of ecosys- genic processes in which multiple tems in the watersheds to climate stakeholders play a role. The vul- change. For this reason, albeit we nerability of watersheds, within the cannot significantly change the ex- meaning of IPCC (2008), is then the posure of an ecosystem to climate local expression of the combinato- change and its “natural” sensitivity, rial of: 1) exposure to climate change we can act on those variables that in purely biophysical terms (melting directly depend on our individual glaciers, increased frequency and and collective decisions. Production intensity of rainfall and drought); systems, capacity building, public28 Climate change in a living landscape

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