Spatial analysis to identify risk areas   of an important animal disease (Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza)  and to evalu...
Animal diseases controlAffected animals and.....:    Trade in animal products    Vaccines    Control of disease: loss of l...
Animal diseases control                           Tuberculosis               Zoonotics   Salmonella                       ...
Animal diseases control                  Affected countries: stop spread                    Free countries: early detectio...
Animal diseases control: SURVEILLANCE   random sampling       system                                   Preventive         ...
Animal diseases control: SURVEILLANCE  massive expansion   avian influenza                                         TARGET ...
Animal diseases control: SURVEILLANCE                                          TARGET                                     ...
HighlyPathogenicAvianInfluenza        ( SubtypeH5N1)                           • Affected countries (2004-2010)
has killed ≈ 400 million domestic birdsartsandopinion.com          new.dpi.vic.gov.au        Cbc.ca     High economic loss...
• has killed ≈ 400 million domestic birdsThe main difference...            Natural reservoir Affected birds             Ha...
In the last 4 years...Spread in Europe            •Trade poultry                            •Migrationrouteswaterbirds    ...
Spatial analysis to identify risk areasof Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza and to evaluate current strategy of    health ...
Spatial analysis process: Modelling      Data base    Visualization    Exploration                       Statistics       ...
Data base   Avian Influenza         Avian InfluenzaCases in domestic birds   Cases in wildbirds   Modelling with G.I.S.   ...
WHERE should we do an efficient surveillance of      Avian Influenza in wildbirds???                                      ...
Spatial analysis to identify risk areasof Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza            in waterbirds
Importance of wetlands in spread of Avian _Influenza1. Infected water represents a recognized mechanism for the virus tran...
Modelizationof ENVIRONMENTAL RISK FACTOR for European WETLANDSRamsar European Wetlands (Wetlands.org)                     ...
Modelizationof ENVIRONMENTAL RISK FACTOR for European WETLANDS                                        Water: Salinity, per...
Risk map for ocurrence of Avian Influenza in wildbirds   Logistic regression model                               GERMANY  ...
Aplication of the model a national level: Spain             Logistic regression model         Increased Nº wetlands       ...
MCD           Logistic regression model  Multicriteria   Decision:                                                        ...
MCD           Logistic regression model  Multicriteria                                                      USEFUL   Decis...
Spatial analysis to EVALUATE currentstrategy in health surveillance in Europe.
Probability of ocurrence of Avian Influenza     Test points               Co-krigingAvian Influenza cases                 ...
Probability of ocurrence of Avian Influenza                Co-kriging                               •   Geostatistical ana...
Probability of ocurrence of Avian Influenza                                  Co-kriging                                   ...
CONCLUSIONS     Spatial Analysis is an essential tool for Animal Health                  Veterinary Authorities and       ...
Financial support: CC08-020, FAU2008-00001-C02-01Laguna de Pitillas (Navarra) http://www.navarra.es/home_es/Actualidad/Inf...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Spatial Analysis to Identify Risk Areas of an Important Animal Disease (Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza) and to Evaluate Current Strategy in Health Surveillance in Europe

1,138 views
976 views

Published on

Presentation by Irene Iglesias, Marta Martínez, Ana de la Torre, María Jesús Muñoz and JM Sánchez Vizcaíno from INIA on Esri European User Conference 2011.

Published in: Health & Medicine, Technology
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
1,138
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
2
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
30
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Spatial Analysis to Identify Risk Areas of an Important Animal Disease (Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza) and to Evaluate Current Strategy in Health Surveillance in Europe

  1. 1. Spatial analysis to identify risk areas of an important animal disease (Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza) and to evaluate current strategy in health surveillance in EuropeIrene Iglesias iglesias@inia.es Marta Martínez Ana de la TorreMª Jesús MuñozJM Sánchez-Vizcaíno(CISA-INIA UCM)
  2. 2. Animal diseases controlAffected animals and.....: Trade in animal products Vaccines Control of disease: loss of livestock, compensation, health costs Public confidence ......
  3. 3. Animal diseases control Tuberculosis Zoonotics Salmonella Avian Influenza …
  4. 4. Animal diseases control Affected countries: stop spread Free countries: early detection Preventive surveillance
  5. 5. Animal diseases control: SURVEILLANCE random sampling system Preventive surveillance
  6. 6. Animal diseases control: SURVEILLANCE massive expansion avian influenza TARGET SURVEILLANCE Risk assessment random sampling system Preventive EC 2010/367/EU surveillance
  7. 7. Animal diseases control: SURVEILLANCE TARGET SURVEILLANCE Risk assessment G.I.S. Spatial analysis: Exploring data Risk assessment Preventive Modelling diseases surveillance
  8. 8. HighlyPathogenicAvianInfluenza ( SubtypeH5N1) • Affected countries (2004-2010)
  9. 9. has killed ≈ 400 million domestic birdsartsandopinion.com new.dpi.vic.gov.au Cbc.ca High economic losses ≈ ($20 billion) Social alarm :332 fatal human cases HighlyPathogenicAvianInfluenza ( SubtypeH5N1)
  10. 10. • has killed ≈ 400 million domestic birdsThe main difference... Natural reservoir Affected birds Has killed ≈ 15.000 waterbirds Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza ( Subtype H5N1)
  11. 11. In the last 4 years...Spread in Europe •Trade poultry •Migrationrouteswaterbirds HighlyPathogenicAvianInfluenza ( SubtypeH5N1)
  12. 12. Spatial analysis to identify risk areasof Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza and to evaluate current strategy of health surveillance in Europe
  13. 13. Spatial analysis process: Modelling Data base Visualization Exploration Statistics Useful & efficient decision- Modelling making tool for different epidemiological situations in animal health
  14. 14. Data base Avian Influenza Avian InfluenzaCases in domestic birds Cases in wildbirds Modelling with G.I.S. Domestic birds WildbirdsCensus/farms/location Census/location
  15. 15. WHERE should we do an efficient surveillance of Avian Influenza in wildbirds??? TARGET SURVEILLANCE
  16. 16. Spatial analysis to identify risk areasof Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in waterbirds
  17. 17. Importance of wetlands in spread of Avian _Influenza1. Infected water represents a recognized mechanism for the virus transmission within waterbird populations2. Wetlands concentrate many waterbirds species → Increasing the risk of infection
  18. 18. Modelizationof ENVIRONMENTAL RISK FACTOR for European WETLANDSRamsar European Wetlands (Wetlands.org) DistancesAvian influenza cases in wild birds (06-09)!( Ramsar wetland Wetlands Wildbirds outbreaks Outbreaks Infected wetlands “Positive wetland” Infected wetlands Europe 16Km • Analysis tools • Spatial analysis
  19. 19. Modelizationof ENVIRONMENTAL RISK FACTOR for European WETLANDS Water: Salinity, permanence organic or mineral soil, ....Study wetlands characteristics Land Use: Forestry, hunting, Agriculture, aquaculture,... Biological: Wintering birds area, Logistic regression species, important area for fish.. analysis •Mixosaline water •Forestry around wetland •Wintering waterbird area • Analysis tools • Spatial analysis Identification of risk factors • Logistic regression
  20. 20. Risk map for ocurrence of Avian Influenza in wildbirds Logistic regression model GERMANY ! Ramsar wetland ( 2009 Waterbird cases “Infected wetlands” Europa ROMANIA 2010 BULGARIA 2010 USEFUL INFORMATION • Spatial analysis: ON TARGET Kernel SURVEILLANCE
  21. 21. Aplication of the model a national level: Spain Logistic regression model Increased Nº wetlands •Wetlands Ramsar+Spanish Wetlands (NationalDatabase) Interpolate data model : IDW (Inverse Distance Weighting) Provinces Risk of model High: 0.83 Low:0.10 Survival by temperature analysis Adjust risk by climatic data ( temperature analysis) Survival curve • Geostatistical analysis: IDW
  22. 22. MCD Logistic regression model Multicriteria Decision: Salburua Wildbird case in Pais Vasco (2006) Almoguera Farm affected contact with wildbirds (2009) Provinces Risk values (October) October) High Low • Spatial analysis: Europe MathRisk of ocurrence of Avian Influenza in wildbirds
  23. 23. MCD Logistic regression model Multicriteria USEFUL Decision: INFORMATION IMPROVE SURVEILLANCE PLANS 2006 High Surveillance Areas Of the National surveillance Plan (Ministery Agriculture and Food) Provinces Risk values (October) October) High Low EuropeRisk of ocurrence of Avian Influenza in wildbirds
  24. 24. Spatial analysis to EVALUATE currentstrategy in health surveillance in Europe.
  25. 25. Probability of ocurrence of Avian Influenza Test points Co-krigingAvian Influenza cases + co-variable Wetlands (>20.000 Waterbirds) • Geostatistical analysis: Co-kriging + co-variante Poultry density
  26. 26. Probability of ocurrence of Avian Influenza Co-kriging • Geostatistical analysis: Co-kriging
  27. 27. Probability of ocurrence of Avian Influenza Co-kriging USEFUL INFORMATION EVALUATE SURVEILLANCE STRATEGIES NL DE SPSampling> Risk Avian Influenza $ • Geostatistical analysis: Co-krigingSampling< Risk Avian Influenza $ • Spearman’s coefficient • Grubb’s test, P<0.01
  28. 28. CONCLUSIONS Spatial Analysis is an essential tool for Animal Health Veterinary Authorities and Organisations Help to take decisions for TARGET SURVEILLANCE (According to EC recommendations) Identify HOT SPOT of RISK Adequate control mesures Increase INFORMATION about dynamic of diseases improvePREVENTION & CONTROL PLANS Prevent or reduce consequences EVALUATE control and prevention strategiesReduce health costs and improve efficiency of veterinary intervention
  29. 29. Financial support: CC08-020, FAU2008-00001-C02-01Laguna de Pitillas (Navarra) http://www.navarra.es/home_es/Actualidad/Informes

×