Spatial Analysis to Identify Risk Areas of an Important Animal Disease (Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza) and to Evaluate Current Strategy in Health Surveillance in Europe
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Spatial Analysis to Identify Risk Areas of an Important Animal Disease (Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza) and to Evaluate Current Strategy in Health Surveillance in Europe

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Presentation by Irene Iglesias, Marta Martínez, Ana de la Torre, María Jesús Muñoz and JM Sánchez Vizcaíno from INIA on Esri European User Conference 2011.

Presentation by Irene Iglesias, Marta Martínez, Ana de la Torre, María Jesús Muñoz and JM Sánchez Vizcaíno from INIA on Esri European User Conference 2011.

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Spatial Analysis to Identify Risk Areas of an Important Animal Disease (Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza) and to Evaluate Current Strategy in Health Surveillance in Europe Spatial Analysis to Identify Risk Areas of an Important Animal Disease (Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza) and to Evaluate Current Strategy in Health Surveillance in Europe Presentation Transcript

  • Spatial analysis to identify risk areas of an important animal disease (Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza) and to evaluate current strategy in health surveillance in EuropeIrene Iglesias iglesias@inia.es Marta Martínez Ana de la TorreMª Jesús MuñozJM Sánchez-Vizcaíno(CISA-INIA UCM)
  • Animal diseases controlAffected animals and.....: Trade in animal products Vaccines Control of disease: loss of livestock, compensation, health costs Public confidence ......
  • Animal diseases control Tuberculosis Zoonotics Salmonella Avian Influenza …
  • Animal diseases control Affected countries: stop spread Free countries: early detection Preventive surveillance
  • Animal diseases control: SURVEILLANCE random sampling system Preventive surveillance
  • Animal diseases control: SURVEILLANCE massive expansion avian influenza TARGET SURVEILLANCE Risk assessment random sampling system Preventive EC 2010/367/EU surveillance
  • Animal diseases control: SURVEILLANCE TARGET SURVEILLANCE Risk assessment G.I.S. Spatial analysis: Exploring data Risk assessment Preventive Modelling diseases surveillance
  • HighlyPathogenicAvianInfluenza ( SubtypeH5N1) • Affected countries (2004-2010)
  • has killed ≈ 400 million domestic birdsartsandopinion.com new.dpi.vic.gov.au Cbc.ca High economic losses ≈ ($20 billion) Social alarm :332 fatal human cases HighlyPathogenicAvianInfluenza ( SubtypeH5N1)
  • • has killed ≈ 400 million domestic birdsThe main difference... Natural reservoir Affected birds Has killed ≈ 15.000 waterbirds Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza ( Subtype H5N1)
  • In the last 4 years...Spread in Europe •Trade poultry •Migrationrouteswaterbirds HighlyPathogenicAvianInfluenza ( SubtypeH5N1)
  • Spatial analysis to identify risk areasof Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza and to evaluate current strategy of health surveillance in Europe
  • Spatial analysis process: Modelling Data base Visualization Exploration Statistics Useful & efficient decision- Modelling making tool for different epidemiological situations in animal health
  • Data base Avian Influenza Avian InfluenzaCases in domestic birds Cases in wildbirds Modelling with G.I.S. Domestic birds WildbirdsCensus/farms/location Census/location
  • WHERE should we do an efficient surveillance of Avian Influenza in wildbirds??? TARGET SURVEILLANCE
  • Spatial analysis to identify risk areasof Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in waterbirds
  • Importance of wetlands in spread of Avian _Influenza1. Infected water represents a recognized mechanism for the virus transmission within waterbird populations2. Wetlands concentrate many waterbirds species → Increasing the risk of infection
  • Modelizationof ENVIRONMENTAL RISK FACTOR for European WETLANDSRamsar European Wetlands (Wetlands.org) DistancesAvian influenza cases in wild birds (06-09)!( Ramsar wetland Wetlands Wildbirds outbreaks Outbreaks Infected wetlands “Positive wetland” Infected wetlands Europe 16Km • Analysis tools • Spatial analysis
  • Modelizationof ENVIRONMENTAL RISK FACTOR for European WETLANDS Water: Salinity, permanence organic or mineral soil, ....Study wetlands characteristics Land Use: Forestry, hunting, Agriculture, aquaculture,... Biological: Wintering birds area, Logistic regression species, important area for fish.. analysis •Mixosaline water •Forestry around wetland •Wintering waterbird area • Analysis tools • Spatial analysis Identification of risk factors • Logistic regression
  • Risk map for ocurrence of Avian Influenza in wildbirds Logistic regression model GERMANY ! Ramsar wetland ( 2009 Waterbird cases “Infected wetlands” Europa ROMANIA 2010 BULGARIA 2010 USEFUL INFORMATION • Spatial analysis: ON TARGET Kernel SURVEILLANCE
  • Aplication of the model a national level: Spain Logistic regression model Increased Nº wetlands •Wetlands Ramsar+Spanish Wetlands (NationalDatabase) Interpolate data model : IDW (Inverse Distance Weighting) Provinces Risk of model High: 0.83 Low:0.10 Survival by temperature analysis Adjust risk by climatic data ( temperature analysis) Survival curve • Geostatistical analysis: IDW
  • MCD Logistic regression model Multicriteria Decision: Salburua Wildbird case in Pais Vasco (2006) Almoguera Farm affected contact with wildbirds (2009) Provinces Risk values (October) October) High Low • Spatial analysis: Europe MathRisk of ocurrence of Avian Influenza in wildbirds
  • MCD Logistic regression model Multicriteria USEFUL Decision: INFORMATION IMPROVE SURVEILLANCE PLANS 2006 High Surveillance Areas Of the National surveillance Plan (Ministery Agriculture and Food) Provinces Risk values (October) October) High Low EuropeRisk of ocurrence of Avian Influenza in wildbirds
  • Spatial analysis to EVALUATE currentstrategy in health surveillance in Europe.
  • Probability of ocurrence of Avian Influenza Test points Co-krigingAvian Influenza cases + co-variable Wetlands (>20.000 Waterbirds) • Geostatistical analysis: Co-kriging + co-variante Poultry density
  • Probability of ocurrence of Avian Influenza Co-kriging • Geostatistical analysis: Co-kriging
  • Probability of ocurrence of Avian Influenza Co-kriging USEFUL INFORMATION EVALUATE SURVEILLANCE STRATEGIES NL DE SPSampling> Risk Avian Influenza $ • Geostatistical analysis: Co-krigingSampling< Risk Avian Influenza $ • Spearman’s coefficient • Grubb’s test, P<0.01
  • CONCLUSIONS Spatial Analysis is an essential tool for Animal Health Veterinary Authorities and Organisations Help to take decisions for TARGET SURVEILLANCE (According to EC recommendations) Identify HOT SPOT of RISK Adequate control mesures Increase INFORMATION about dynamic of diseases improvePREVENTION & CONTROL PLANS Prevent or reduce consequences EVALUATE control and prevention strategiesReduce health costs and improve efficiency of veterinary intervention
  • Financial support: CC08-020, FAU2008-00001-C02-01Laguna de Pitillas (Navarra) http://www.navarra.es/home_es/Actualidad/Informes