DTS Tecnosylva Fire Response

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Presentation on Esri European User Conference by D. Buckley, J. Ramírez and JM Lahoz from DTS Wildfire Tecnosylva.

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DTS Tecnosylva Fire Response

  1. 1. 15 years supporting Wildfires operations From Aragón to San Diego J Ramirez & JM Lahoz (tecnosylva) D Buckley (dtswildfire)
  2. 2. Cedar Fire, going through Sycamore Creek Neighborhood in Poway Ca., October 2003 http://youtu.be/-IG9Jhx4xIA
  3. 3. Jacques Descloitres, MODIS Rapid Response System at NASA/GSFC http://youtu.be/eET7jwJOOqA
  4. 4. http://www.nifc.go v/fireInfo/fireInfo_ statistics.html 12000000 300000 Lower number of fires but bigger - The better we are fighting fires, the bigger those we cannot win 10000000 250000 8000000 200000 firesacres burnt 6000000 150000 4000000 100000 2000000 50000 Fires 0 0 Acres 1960 1964 1966 1968 1970 1974 1976 1978 1980 1984 1986 1988 1990 1994 1996 1998 2000 2004 2006 2008 2010 1962 1972 1982 1992 2002
  5. 5. American Flight 1956-57 Yes, it is Arc ! 1994 Spain fire season 437.000 ha burnt Aragón: Villarluengo 27.000 ha
  6. 6. 393 forest rangers46 engines9 helicopters8 helicrews69 crews2 advanced command posts152 small engines+2 canadair1 sokol1 Kamoc1 BRIF
  7. 7. Helicopter crash in Alcorisa, Mar 18th, 6 fatalitiesTotal fatalities 2011:
  8. 8. Geotechnologies &Wildfires••
  9. 9. Geotechnologies & Wildfires GIS Artificial GNSS Inteligence BI & Document MobilityManagement Wildfire GTs Remote Sensing Sensors Predictive Services Communications
  10. 10. …ok, maybe we need some help on the field ¡¡¡ do you have these trees in US?
  11. 11. What is geospatial fire simulation? 1938 Honey Fire, Louisiana
  12. 12. The science and art of GWS• Where the fire is going to be in the next …?• How is it burning process?• When can we expect to stop it?• What is the potential of the fire?• Why is the fire jumping?All these questions have spatio-temporal answers
  13. 13. Who’s who in GWS Harry T. Gisborne Jack S. Barrow Director of the Missoula fire LabFirst true specialist in forestfire research in the Nation The Mann Gulch Fire (1949)
  14. 14. Farsite: Mark Finney’s First complete GWS (1991-1998)
  15. 15. for this problem… we need models¡• Models help us to better understand complex systems• Helps us to quantify the problems• Fire behavior involves (in a short approach) – Weather – Fuel – Terrain – Human factors• Spatial and Temporal combined analysis is needed
  16. 16. Modeling fire behaviour R. C. Rothermel, 1987 Managing Research for Success Gen. Tech. Rep. PSW-101 Berkeley, CA. Pacific Southwest Forest and Range Experiment Station, Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture; 1987
  17. 17. Models are out there Models completed in period 1990-200712 Physical7 quasi-physical15 empirical5 quasi-empirical11 simulation22 mathematical analogous Andrew L. Sullivan Wildland surface fire spread modelling, 1990–2007 International Journal of Wildland Fire Volume 18 Number 4 2009 .
  18. 18. FBAN’s: the guys that need tools torun the models ant the right place ¡
  19. 19. (Adapted from Stratton 2005) Refine ignition points, active fronts, secondary spots Weather & Fuel ROS Refinement of the adjustmens scenario: fuels, firebreaks, operations Evaluation of observed Weather input review:ROS: field observers, AVL predictions&RAWS vs inresources, aerial imagery field measurements Atention to sensible parameters: local wind effects, fuel moisture
  20. 20. We need to take sims from the lab… LANL Coupled Fire/Atmosphere Modeling, FIRETEC http://ees.lanl.gov/ees16/FIRETEC.shtml
  21. 21. to the Incident Command Post …
  22. 22. … to support operations
  23. 23. Agency Wide Incident Management
  24. 24. Integrated WF System Vision
  25. 25. Software Vision
  26. 26. Incident Lifecycle• Includes all phases of wildland firefighting requirements, from: • Detection • Resource management • Response & suppression management • Impact analysis & damage assessment • Documentation & tracking
  27. 27. How Does it Work?• Seamless Synchronization • Uses a data replication approach based on transactional architecture • Facilitates exchange of data between seamlessly between users • Designed to ensure data synchronization occurs in the most severe operational scenarios • Designed for EOC and related command hierarchy
  28. 28. Vulnerable asset
  29. 29. Save sideWind will push fireaway asset Dangerous side Wind will push fire toward asset
  30. 30. Save sideWind will push fireaway asset Dangerous side Wind will push fire toward asset
  31. 31. Each cell represents:the TIME a fire would take to get to theevacuation point with the givenconditions…
  32. 32. Alabama Forestry CommissionSuppression Budget Analysis
  33. 33. Fire Perimeter & Origin Fire ignition May 7-9, 2007 – St. Clair Stone Fire
  34. 34. Wildfire Simulation – Nearby Communities St. Clair Stone Fire
  35. 35. Wildfire Simulation – Comparison Actual Perimeter St. Clair Stone Fire
  36. 36. St. Clair Stone Fire Simulation Accumulative Residential Population Impacted By Hour Progression of Wildfire1.800 1.7041.600 1.510 1.4181.400 1.345 1.229 1.2461.200 1.0521.000 800 615 600 479 400 244 137 160 200 16 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 Hour of Wildfire Accumulative Population Impacted
  37. 37. Wildfire Simulation – Impacted Parcels St. Clair Stone Fire
  38. 38. St. Clair Stone Fire Simulation Number of Structures Impacted by Wildfire By Hour of Progression 300 258 250Structures Impacted 200 150 137 105 89 100 81 69 60 49 50 39 32 33 20 21 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 Hour of Wildfire Total Structures Impacted
  39. 39. St. Clair Stone Fire Simulation Accumulative Potential $ Loss of Structures By Hour Progression of Wildfire $100 $93,6 $89,0 $90 $81,5 $77,9 $80 $73,7 $75,7 $70 $66,8 $60$ in Millions $50 $40 $32,1 $30 $24,4 $20 $12,8 $7,2 $8,1 $10 $3,9 $0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 Hour of Wildfire Accumulated Structure Loss
  40. 40. Click the imageto play the AFCYouTube video that describes the analysis
  41. 41. new uses of operational simulations Prevention Operations Post fire• Observed Fire • Every Alarm • Fire Scenarios Behavior Evaluation • Impact database • Multiple assesment • Fuel management incidents • What if? • Analyze firebreaks efficiency • IAP support • Historical • Resources location • Integration in analysis optimization DSS • New local models
  42. 42. anyone joins the lady?I’ve got aquestion… Thank you for your attention Joaquín Ramírez jramirez@tecnosylva.com David Buckley dbuckley@dtsgis.com

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