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Energy and transport in 2050 – will we overcome the nexus between energy consumption and economic growth?

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If the majority of the world’s developing countries continue to strive for our standard of living, we urgently have to find ways to break the nexus between energy consumption and economic growth. …

If the majority of the world’s developing countries continue to strive for our standard of living, we urgently have to find ways to break the nexus between energy consumption and economic growth. Fortunately, in both energy and transport, promising solutions are closer than many of us imagine.

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  • 1. Energy and transport in 2050 – will we overcome the nexus between energy consumption and economic growth? ESMT Annual Forum 2014 Jens Weinmann Berlin, 3 July 2014
  • 2. #esmt2050 Global human population (in billions) 7/8/2014 1 Present 2010-2013 ESMT Annual Forum 2014 – Energy and transport in 2050 How many ‘Earths‘ worth of resources do we consume? Past 1970-2010 Future 2013-2050 Our ecological footprint: Past, present and future Source: WWF Living Planet Report (2013)
  • 3. #esmt2050 Human development and the Ecological Footprint: Either one or the other… 7/8/2014 2ESMT Annual Forum 2014 – Energy and transport in 2050 Meets minimum criteria for sustainability Source: WWF Living Planet Report (2012)
  • 4. #esmt2050 The environmental Kuznets curve: Cement consumption per capita vs. 2012 GDP per capita 7/8/2014 ESMT Annual Forum 2014 – Energy and transport in 2050 3 Source: Deutsche Bank (2014)
  • 5. #esmt2050 The environmental Kuznets curve: Cement consumption per capita vs. 2012 GDP per capita 7/8/2014 ESMT Annual Forum 2014 – Energy and transport in 2050 4 3.95 billion people ´ China India Indonesia Turkey Egypt Mexico Brazil Bangladesh Nigeria Pakistan Russia Philippines Source: Deutsche Bank (2014), World Bank (2014)
  • 6. #esmt2050 The environmental Kuznets curve: Cement consumption per capita vs. 2012 GDP per capita 7/8/2014 ESMT Annual Forum 2014 – Energy and transport in 2050 5 1 billion people >20,000 𝑈𝑆−$ 𝑐𝑎𝑝 6 billion people <20,000 𝑈𝑆−$ 𝑐𝑎𝑝 Source: Deutsche Bank (2014), World Bank (2014)
  • 7. #esmt2050 Energy intensity is not declining fast enough 7/8/2014 6ESMT Annual Forum 2014 – Energy and transport in 2050 Source: IEA World Energy Outlook (2012)
  • 8. #esmt2050 Total primary energy demand (in ‘000 Mtoe) 7/8/2014 7 Present 2010-2013 ESMT Annual Forum 2014 – Energy and transport in 2050 Past 1970-2010 Future 2013-2050 Total primary energy demand will increase by 70% until 2050, according to the International Energy Agency‘s BAU (6°C) scenario… 6°C – Business as usual 2°C – CC scenario Source: IEA ETP (2014)
  • 9. #esmt2050 Solar photovoltaic price drop mirrors high tech consumer goods 7/8/2014 ESMT Annual Forum 2014 – Energy and transport in 2050 8 Source: Fraunhofer ISE (2014)
  • 10. #esmt2050 The levelized costs of photovoltaic energy range from a minimum of 0.08 EURcts/kWh in southern Mediterranean to 32 EURcts/kWh in the most northern regions 7/8/2014 9ESMT Annual Forum 2014 – Energy and transport in 2050 Source: Ossenbrink et al. / Joint Research Council (2013)
  • 11. #esmt2050 About 40 percent of the world‘s population lives in the tropical belt 7/8/2014 10 Tropical belt ESMT Annual Forum 2014 – Energy and transport in 2050 Source: PBH / ATI (2013)
  • 12. #esmt2050 Evolution of global new solar photovoltaic installations 2000-2013 – rapid development in Asia combined with a sharp drop of installations in Europe 7/8/2014 11 In the IEA’s 2°C-High Renewables Scenario solar becomes the dominant electricity source by 2040, providing 26% of global generation by 2050 ESMT Annual Forum 2014 – Energy and transport in 2050 Sources: EPIA (0214), Ossenbrink et al. / Joint Research Council (2013), IEA ETP (2014)
  • 13. #esmt2050 Will we run out of energy? 7/8/2014 ESMT Annual Forum 2014 – Energy and transport in 2050 12 Source: Richard Perez (2011)
  • 14. #esmt2050 Light duty passenger vehicles (in millions) 7/8/2014 13 Present 2010-2013 ESMT Annual Forum 2014 – Energy and transport in 2050 Past 1970-2010 Future 2013-2050 The global car fleet will continue to grow… 6°C – Business as usual 2°C – CC scenario Source: IEA ETP (2014)
  • 15. #esmt2050 The car will remain the preferred means of transport – but which technologies and business models will dominate? 7/8/2014 14 Air 9% Light road 58% Heavy road 22% Rail 11% Passenger kilometers in IEA’s 2°C scenario in 2050 (World total of 85 trillion km) ESMT Annual Forum 2014 – Energy and transport in 2050 Sources: IEA ETP (2014) / IEA Global Tranposrt Outlook / Dulac (2012)
  • 16. #esmt2050 Industrialized countries: The car loses its power as a status symbol for the younger generation 18 to 25 year old Germans: declining affinity to cars Sources: Bratzel/Center of Automotive Management (2011); Destatis / KBA (2013) Yes 24% No 76% n=1159 Can you imagine to live without cell phone and internet for a month? & Yes 59% No 41% Can you imagine to live without a car for a month? n=1134 New car registrations and demographics 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 <20 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 >79 Inhabitants(million) Newcarregistrations(2010) Age group Inhabitants New car registrations 7/8/2014 15ESMT Annual Forum 2014 – Energy and transport in 2050
  • 17. #esmt2050 Free-floating: A new car-sharing service for the digital society Daimler was the pioneer of free-floating car-sharing Exponential growth in car-sharing *compared to Jan 1, 2013 Sources: car2go/Daimler (2014), Verkehrsclub Deutschland (2014) User free-floating User classic car clubs Vehicles free-floating Vehicles classic car clubs 14,000 vehicles 760,000 users 1997 1/1/2014 …as of Jan 1, 2014 Classic car clubs Free floating Suppliers approx. 150 3 Cities participating 380 (+38*) 12 (+6*) Users 320,000 (+50,000*) 437,000 (+254,000*) Vehicles 7,700 (+1,000*) 6,250 (+1,700*) Stations 3,900 (+650*)  Car2go is active at 25 locations in seven European and North American countries  approximately 10,000 smart fortwo vehicles are being used  by more than 600,000 customers 7/8/2014 16ESMT Annual Forum 2014 – Energy and transport in 2050
  • 18. #esmt2050 Electric vehicles are not only an expensive toy in industrialized countries: Tesla Model S vs. BMW i3 vs. Reva e2o 10 kWh 60-100 km390-500 km 85 kWh 19 kWh 130-160 km 7/8/2014 17ESMT Annual Forum 2014 – Energy and transport in 2050 Sources: Company websites (2014)
  • 19. #esmt2050 Tesla’s Gigafactory will decrease battery price of batteries by 30% By the end of the first year of volume production of our mass market vehicle, we expect the Gigafactory will have driven down the per kWh cost of our battery pack by more than 30 percent. Source: Tesla Motors (2014) 7/8/2014 18ESMT Annual Forum 2014 – Energy and transport in 2050
  • 20. #esmt2050 In the foreseable future, we will not be able to decouple energy and economic growth… …but it does not matter as much as we think, because we will have abundant renewable energy available! Key Take-Away
  • 21. #esmt2050 ESMT European School of Management and Technology Schlossplatz 1 10178 Berlin Phone: +49 (0) 30 192 31-0 Fax: +49 (0) 30 192 31-9 info@esmt.org www.esmt.org Dr. Jens Weinmann Program Director jens.weinmann@esmt.org +49 (0) 30 21231-8052 Thank you for your attention!