Water climate change impacts report card 2012 2013 (uk)


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Water Climate Change Impacts Report Card 2012-2013 (UK)

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Water climate change impacts report card 2012 2013 (uk)

  1. 1. 1 Living With Environmental Change The report card covers the following topics: • Temperature • Rainfall • Evapotranspiration – water that evaporates or is transpired by trees and other plants • River flows, floods and droughts • Groundwater recharge and levels • River water temperature • River water quality and ecology • Groundwater temperature and quality • Water use Water Climate Change Impacts Report Card 2012 -13 This report card is for anyone who works with or has an interest in water in the UK. It looks at the effect of climate change on fresh water – including rainfall, floods and droughts. The report card is intended to help people understand the scale of possible change and to help inform decisions about the way that water is managed. Water is an essential and familiar part of everyday life, at home, at work and at leisure. Water is at the heart of some of the most serious natural hazards faced in the UK – floods and droughts. Climate change may have many impacts on water: while some may be beneficial or easily managed, others require careful planning to avoid unacceptable consequences. This report card concentrates on fresh water, from source to sea. It complements two other report cards – the Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership (MCCIP) marine report card and the Living With Environmental Change (LWEC) Terrestrial Biodiversity Climate Change Impacts report card. Together, these start to build up a picture of historical and future changes as a result of climate change. In time, we expect these report cards to be joined by others that complete the picture of how climate change is affecting and may further affect the UK.
  2. 2. 2 Headline messages The climate is changing Global temperature has increased over the last fifty years, with the greatest warming in northern latitudes. Global sea level is rising by about 3 mm every year. Across northern Europe rainfall increased significantly over the twentieth century, with a decrease in rainfall in the Mediterranean region. The UK climate is changing too Temperatures have increased by about 1°C since 1980. Annual average rainfall has not changed since records began in the 18th century, but in the last thirty years more winter rainfall has fallen in heavy events. Many people will experience climate change through its effect on water In the UK, many people will experience climate change through its effect on water, and especially through floods and droughts. Average summer river flows may decrease through the twenty-first century across the UK, leading to reduced water availability and lower river water quality. Floods may increase in both size and duration, particularly during winter. We need to plan for future impacts to avoid unacceptable consequences Actions to adapt to climate change must consider both the scale of the possible change and the variability of the UK climate. Flexible solutions that can deal with a wide range of weather will usually be the best way forward. Many actions will take many years to design and implement. This means that we need to anticipate future changes and start to take steps to adapt to them now.
  3. 3. 3 Background This water report card is an initiative of the LWEC partnership. LWEC brings together UK public sector organisations that fund, carry out and use environmental research and observations. LWEC aims to make sure that decision-makers in government, business and society have the information, knowledge and methods they need to adapt to and where possible benefit from environmental change. The water report card was developed with funding and practical input from Defra (the UK Government’s Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs), the Environment Agency, LWEC and the Natural Environment Research Council. The report card is in three parts: • This high-level summary of the main findings • A technical summary paper that covers the science in more detail • A series of detailed scientific working papers, written by leading experts in their fields, underpinning the report card with the best available science from the peer-reviewed academic literature. This high-level summary and the technical summary paper have been reviewed by a group of independent experts to assure their quality. The water report card was steered by an expert panel drawn from academia, consultancy and the water industry. The source papers for this card are available from the LWEC website. How was the report card developed? High Force, Upper Teesdale
  4. 4. 4 What is happening Low confidence Medium confidence High confidence Annual average rainfall has changed little over the last three centuries. In recent decades more winter rain has fallen in heavy events. High winter river flows have increased especially in the north and west. Lake and river water temperature is increasing. There are no apparent trends in ground water levels. Ground water and river water quality has improved because of reduced pollution. There are no apparent trends in low river flows. The demand for water has changed little over the last decade. Little known about changes in evaporation. Confidence Key
  5. 5. 5 What could happen* Low confidence Medium confidence High confidence Confidence Key Little change to annual rainfall overall, but an increase in winter rainfall and a decrease in summer rainfall. Increase in winter river flows with more floods. Continued increase in lake and river water temperature. Reduction in average groundwater levels. Reduced water quality in summer as higher water temperatures lead to more algal blooms. Lower river flows in summer. The demand for water may increase with higher temperatures. Increase in evaporation. *By the 2050s
  6. 6. 6 The UK has a temperate, moist climate, with mild winters and warm, but not hot, summers. Average rainfall is highest in the west and north, with the mountains of Wales, the English Lake District and the Highlands of Scotland wettest: some parts receive over 3 metres of rainfall each year on average. The lowlands of eastern England have the least rainfall, with some areas seeing an average of less than 500 mm of rainfall a year. Annual average temperatures are highest in the south of England, at 10 to 12°C. The warmest areas are along the south coast and around London, and the same areas have the hottest summer weather, but Cornwall has the mildest winters. The coldest areas are the highest hills and mountains of the Pennines and Scotland, where the annual average is below 4°C. Climate and hydrology of the UK The geology, soils and vegetation of the UK are varied, and these lead to different hydrological responses to rainfall. The high land in the west and north is mainly impermeable, which means that rainfall tends to run quickly into streams and rivers. Rivers here are “flashy” – flows rise quickly after rainfall, but fall quickly too once the rain has stopped. In southern and eastern England the chalk rock is permeable; water sinks into the ground (where it is called “groundwater”) and emerges slowly into rivers, sometimes many months after the rain fell. This means that rivers in these areas tend to respond slowly to rainfall, maintaining flows through all but the driest summers. Limestone in the Cotswolds and the Pennines responds more quickly than chalk but still acts as a reserve that maintains flows for some time after the rain has finished. The Lake District
  7. 7. 7 Lough Neagh River Severn River Tay River Thames The principal aquifers of the British Isles Post-Carboniferous (undifferentiated) Chalk Jurassic Limestone Permo-Triassic Sandstones Devonian/Carboniferous- Older Cover Impermeable Basement
  8. 8. 8 Uses of water The main uses of water in England and Wales 2011 Across the UK, around 17 billion litres of clean drinking water are supplied by water companies every day. Some water users take water directly from rivers or groundwater – this includes some homes without mains water supply, but water taken directly is used mainly in farming, by industry, and for electricity generation. In England and Wales, slightly more fresh water is used for cooling power plants than for mains water supply, even though many of the biggest power plants are on the coast and use water from the sea or from estuaries. Much of the water used by businesses and at home is returned to rivers, after treatment to make sure that river water quality is maintained. Water in lakes, rivers and streams is essential for natural life too. Many people use rivers, lakes and canals for recreation, including fishing, boating or enjoying quiet time by the water. In the past, rivers and canals were very important for the movement of goods; now most boats on inland water are used for pleasure, and in some places water-based tourism is an important part of the local economy. *Private water supply 0.1% Public water supply Spray irrigation Agriculture excluding spray irrigation Electricity supply Other uses Other industry Fish farming 5.9% 7.4% 1% 0.2% 0.2% 34.2% 51% Diagram data source: Environment Agency
  9. 9. 9 Climate change Globally, the climate has warmed at an increasing rate over the last 50 years, with the greatest warming in northern latitudes. Over the last 50 years the Arctic has warmed at twice the rate of warming over land. In autumn 2012 the Arctic sea ice area reached its lowest recorded extent at least since satellite measurements began in the 1970s. For the last two decades, global sea level has been rising at around 3 mm every year, the result of thermal expansion of water and ice-melt. Sea-level change around the coast of the UK is broadly following the global trend, taking into account land movement. The oceans are becoming more acidic because of the increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Taking northern Europe as a whole, annual rainfall increased significantly over the last century, with a decrease in rainfall in the Mediterranean region. Patterns and trends in climate over smaller areas, such as the countries of the UK, are harder to detect and to distinguish from natural climate variability, yet it is at these and smaller scales that the impact of climate change will be experienced and where steps can be taken to manage the most significant impacts. Locally, changes may not reflect global patterns. This report card concentrates on the UK, but the past and future changes reported here should be placed in this wider context of a warming world. People in the UK will be affected not only by direct changes in local climate but also by changes in other parts of the world, for example as cropping patterns change in the countries that grow some of our food. Annual 1971-2000 (deg C) 0 - 2 2 - 4 4 - 6 6 - 8 8 - 10 10 - 12 Guernsey: 11.1 Jersey: 11.2 Annual 1971-2000 (mm) 450 - 700 700 - 1000 1000 - 1300 1300 - 1700 1700 - 2200 2200 - 2800 2800 - 4650 Guernsey: 824 mm Jersey: 843 mm Annual average rainfall between 1971 and 2000 Annual average temperature between 1971 and 2000
  10. 10. 10 2012 – an unusual year The year 2012 was an unusual year in the UK. The whole calendar year was the second wettest in the UK-wide series that starts in 1910, and just a few millimetres short of the record for the wettest year set in 2000. Both April and June had record high rainfall, and summer 2012 was the second wettest in the UK-wide series, though not as wet as 1768 or 1872 in the much longer England and Wales series. This exceptional rainfall came after two very dry years in England, and the first three months of 2012 were also very dry. The impact of climate change on recent weather is the subject of ongoing research. Recent cool summers in the UK do not reflect the global picture of warming: globally, 2012 was one of the ten warmest years on record, and nine of the ten warmest years occurred since 2000. Commuters in heavy rain in Manchester April 2013
  11. 11. 11 Confidence In developing the report card we wanted to be clear about our confidence in the statements of change. For this reason we have attached a confidence level – high, medium, low – to each of the subject areas. This confidence level, assigned by scientific experts, reflects both the degree of agreement of scientific studies and the amount of information available. For example, we would have low confidence in a conclusion drawn from a few studies that disagreed, but high confidence where a large number of separate investigations led to the same conclusion. The confidence level here is specifically about the link to climate change. For example, we are confident that UK temperatures have increased as a response to climate change, so this is assigned high confidence. In contrast, we are very confident that water quality has improved over the last 30 years, but there is very little information about the impact of climate change on water quality, so this is given a low confidence rating. Levelofagreement Amount of evidence (type, amount, quality, consistency) Overall Confidence H H H M M M L L L The Report Card has simplified the assessments to provide an overall confidence level of high (H), medium (M) or low (L). Low confidence results are still based on evidence and still reflect expert judgment.
  12. 12. 12 The Report Card Over the next few pages we give the main findings of the report card. The first column gives the subject and provides a link for more information. This link is either a published report (for example, the latest UK climate projections) or one of the working papers developed especially for the water report card. The next two columns explain what has happened so far and what may happen over the rest of the twenty-first century. What could happen Temperature Jenkins et al. 2008 Rainfall Jenkins et al. 2008, Murphy et al. 2009, Watts et al. 2013 What has happened High confidence Central England temperature has increased by approximately 1°C since 1980. High confidence Rainfall varies from year to year but there is no trend in annual average England and Wales rainfall in the long series that began in the 1760s. Winter rainfall in England and Wales has increased since the 1760s, but with little change over the last 50 years. Winter rainfall in Scotland and parts of northern England has increased in the last 50 years. Over the last thirty years, more winter rain has been falling in heavy events. Summer rainfall varies greatly but appears to have decreased in England and Wales since the 1760s, though the trend is hard to quantify. High confidence Temperatures will increase across the UK, with the greatest changes in summer. Medium confidence The latest UK climate projections, UKCP09, suggest that annual average rainfall may not change much over the twenty-first century. In winter, the biggest changes in precipitation may be along the western side of the UK, with increases of up to a third by the end of the century. Decreases of a few percent may occur over parts of the Scottish Highlands. Uncertainties in seasonal rainfall projections are large. In summer, the biggest changes in precipitation, with a reduction of about 40% by the end of the century, may be in parts of the far south of England. Changes close to zero may occur over parts of northern Scotland. Uncertainties in seasonal rainfall projections are large. There is more confidence that high seasonal rainfall extremes will increase as a result of climate change, with a corresponding increase in the biggest floods.
  13. 13. 13 Low confidence There are few studies of historical evapotranspiration and there is little reliable information on how this has changed over time. Low confidence Annual runoff has increased since the 1960s in Scotland, Wales and parts of northern and western England; in contrast, no pronounced changes have occurred in the lowlands of southeast England. Winter flows have increased in upland, western catchments. Autumn flows have increased in central England and parts of eastern Scotland. There is no apparent pattern of change in summer flows across the UK. High winter flows have increased over the last 30 years and there has been an increase in the frequency and magnitude of flooding over the same period, particularly in the west and north. These changes cannot be attributed to climate change. There is little evidence of changes in very low flows and no clear pattern of droughts. Low confidence Potential evapotranspiration is expected to increase in the UK over the rest of the century in response to increased air temperatures, but there may be decreases in some months. The range of possible changes is large, mainly due to uncertainty in projections of wind speed and moisture availability for plant growth, which also have an effect on evapotranspiration. Low confidence Projections of future river flow are uncertain because of uncertainties in both future rainfall and evapotranspiration. Studies tend to agree on a trend towards similar or slightly increased average winter flows and reduced average summer flows, with mixed patterns in spring and autumn. There is more confidence about increased high flows and flooding over the century because of increased rainfall, particularly in winter, but there is a wide range of projections. Some studies indicate increases in the magnitude and frequency of short droughts (18 months), but there is little information on changes in longer droughts. What could happenWhat has happened River flows, floods and droughts Hannaford 2013, Wilby 2013 Evapotranspiration Kay et al. 2013
  14. 14. 14 Low confidence While there are extensive records of groundwater levels across the UK, little is known about how groundwater has responded to climate change. This is partly because the climate change signal is likely to be small compared to other influences on groundwater such as land-use change and abstraction, but also because groundwater systems are naturally highly variable and their response to changes in rainfall and evapotranspiration is likely to be complex. Medium confidence UK river temperature has increased over the latter half of the twentieth century, broadly in line with changes in air temperature. Changes have not been attributed to climate change as the processes (energy exchanges and flow) that control water temperature are complex. Low confidence Most, but not all, studies agree that there may be a decrease in recharge to groundwater throughout the century. By the 2050s changes in groundwater recharge are projected to be somewhere in the range from a 30% reduction up to a 20% increase. There is most agreement for chalk catchments in southern England, where increased temperatures may contribute to a reduction in the length of the recharge season (groundwater recharge occurs mainly between late autumn and early spring). Medium confidence River water temperature is expected to increase across the UK through the twenty-first century, mainly as a response to increased energy inputs. The rate and pattern of change is not clear. Increases in water temperature will be modified by hydrological changes, which may either magnify or reduce the impact of changes in energy input. Groundwater recharge and levels Bloomfield et al. 2013, Jackson et al. 2013 River water temperature Hannah and Garner 2013 What could happenWhat has happened
  15. 15. 15 Groundwater temperature and quality Bloomfield et al. 2013 River water quality and ecology Whitehead et al. 2013, Ormerod and Durance 2013 Low confidence Over the last 30 years there has been an overall improvement in river water quality, although nutrient levels have increased as a result of the use of fertilisers. Improvements have mainly been achieved through regulation of both point source discharges and a reduction in toxic pollution. Upland catchments have begun to recover from acidification as a result of reductions in sulphur emissions since the 1980s. These changes have not been linked to climate change. There is some evidence that freshwater ecosystems may be responding to changes in water temperature, for example with reductions in some fish species in some catchments. Low confidence There is little information on groundwater temperature. Overall, groundwater quality has improved due to tighter regulation of various sources of pollution. An exception is an increase in nitrate levels in groundwater during the last half of the twentieth century, which is consistent with increases in agricultural fertiliser application. These changes have not been linked to climate change. Low confidence Changes in river flow patterns may lead to changes in the mobility and dilution of nutrients and contaminants. Higher water temperatures will increase chemical reactions and biological processes. Lower summer flows may enhance the potential for algal and cyanobacterial blooms and reduce dissolved oxygen levels. Storms may flush nutrients and other pollutants from urban and rural areas and may cause acid pulses in some upland catchments. Increased water temperatures may threaten cold-water fish species, with invasive and non-native fish species finding conditions more favourable. Future conditions are expected to be more favourable to invasive species. Other changes may be complex and there is little information on how freshwater ecosystems will respond to the combined effects of river flows and water temperature and other changes to water quality. Low confidence There has been little research on how groundwater temperature may change. Groundwater quality is expected to respond to changes in recharge and the presence of pollutants and nutrients, but the scale and pattern of changes is unclear. What could happenWhat has happened
  16. 16. 16 What could happenWhat has happened Water use Knox et al. 2013, Rance and Wade 2013 Low confidence Public water supply demand is partly linked to temperature, with greater water demand on hot days. There is no evidence that increasing average temperatures in the UK have yet led to increased demand. This may be because the trend cannot be distinguished from other factors that influence demand. Agricultural demand for water for irrigation has increased over the last two decades, but this increase cannot be linked to climate change. Medium confidence Demand for public water supply may increase with temperature. The main changes are expected to be for increased outdoor use, such as garden watering, and perhaps an increased frequency of showering and bathing. Water demand for agriculture is expected to increase with temperature, as crops may need more irrigation to counteract warmer, drier periods. However, increases may be constrained by the availability of suitable soils for growing irrigated crops. Irrigating Potatoes
  17. 17. 17 What are the implications of climate change? Adapting to climate change The UK Government’s 2012 Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) assessed the main risks and opportunities in the UK from climate change, setting these in context and allowing comparison between different sectors. In all five themes of the CCRA – agriculture and forestry, business, health and wellbeing, buildings and infrastructure, and natural environment – water features high up the list of possible risks. The risks to agriculture and forestry include the problem of drier soils, reducing crop and timber yields and leading to extra demand for water for irrigation. At the same time, increased flooding could reduce the productivity of high-quality agricultural land, which is often in the floodplain. Warmer and drier summers could lead to more wildfires. For businesses the main climate risks include flooding, increased competition for water, and the disruption of transport networks and communication links, for example by floods. There are also indirect risks from changes in agriculture and the natural environment. People’s health and wellbeing is particularly affected by flooding, not only through direct injuries and deaths but also because there can be mental health effects. Water-borne diseases may also become more of a problem with increasing temperatures. Buildings and infrastructure may be affected both by extreme weather and long-term changes in climate. Energy infrastructure is at significant risk from flooding. Increased energy demand may increase the demand for water to cool power stations. Roads and railways are disrupted by flooding, and river bridges are at risk from erosion when river flows are high. Our water supply depends on rainfall, and increased rainfall variability may make provision of water supply more difficult. Buildings can be damaged by flooding. The natural environment depends on water in many ways. Lower summer river flows may lead to poor water quality. Warmer rivers and lakes may suit some species, but others will not thrive. Flooding and erosion can damage important habitats. The possible risks identified here show the importance of adapting to climate change. For many of these water risks there is still considerable uncertainty about the nature and extent of possible changes. Further research and analysis should reduce this uncertainty, but it is very unlikely to be eliminated. This means that many adaptation plans will need to be able to cope with a wide range of possible changes, pointing towards the need for plans that are flexible and adaptable. The UK Government’s first National Adaptation Programme (NAP) was published in the summer of 2013. It sets out the roles of government, the private sector and others in meeting the challenge of climate change, including the Government’s adaptation policies and actions.
  18. 18. 18 River Great Ouse Front cover image: Elan Resevoir © Environment Agency/ Peter Knowles, Page 3: © fotolia, Page 4 and 5 diagram adapted from an original by Vasily Merkushev, Page7: map © NERC, Lough Neagh and River Tay © fotolia, River Severn © Environment Agency/Giraffe Photography, River Thames © Environment Agency, Page 8: water background © fotolia, Page 9: maps © Crown Copyright January 2009, Page 10: © Environment Agency/Alamy, Page 11: boat © Istock, flood, runners and bridge © fotolia, Page 14: both pictures © Environment Agency, Page 16: © Environment Agency, Page 17: © Environment Agency, Page 18: © Environment Agency/Apex, Back page: © Environment Agency/APEX.
  19. 19. 19 Technical papers and contributors Further reading and resources Climate Ready is Defra’s support service for businesses and sectors that want to know more about adapting to climate change. On the Climate Ready website you can find out more about assessing vulnerability to climate change and the steps you can take to adapt. The web resources are available free of charge to anyone in the UK. UKCP09 – the 2009 UK climate projections – are the latest, most detailed projections for the UK. More details on the science of climate change can be found on the UK Met Office website. For an international view on climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has a series of reports and papers available. The Government has published its National Adaptation Plan online. This is a list of the papers referred to in the document. Most of these are working papers, developed specifically to support the LWEC report card. These in turn provide a wide bibliography of published UK research into the past and future impacts of climate change. The technical summary paper – pulling the main points of this work together, is: Watts G, Battarbee R, Bloomfield J, Crossman J, Daccache A, Durance I, Elliot J, Garner G, Hannaford J, Hannah DM, Hess T, Jackson CR, Kay AL, Kernan M, Knox J, Mackay JD, Monteith DT, Ormerod SJ, Rance J, Stuart ME, Wade A, Wade SD, Weatherhead EK, Whitehead PG and Wilby RL (2013) Climate change and water in the UK – past changes and future prospects. 1. Bloomfield JP, Jackson CR and Stuart ME (2013). Changes in groundwater levels, temperature and quality in the UK over the 20th century: An assessment. LWEC working paper. 2. Hannaford J (2013). Observed long-term changes in UK river flow patterns: a review. LWEC working paper. 3 Hannah DM and Garner G (2013). Water temperature. LWEC working paper. 4 Jackson, CR, Mackay JD and Bloomfield JP (2013). Changes in groundwater levels in the UK over the 21st century: an assessment of evidence of impacts. LWEC working paper. 5 Kay AL, Bell VA, Blyth EM, Crooks SM, Davies HN and Reynard NS (2013) A hydrological perspective on UK evaporation: historical trends and future projections. LWEC working paper. 6 Knox J, Weatherhead EK, Hess T and Daccache A (2013). Climate change impacts on future water demand for irrigated agriculture in England and Wales. LWEC working paper. Papers and references 7 Ormerod SJ and Durance I (2013). Climate change and the UK’s freshwater ecosystems. LWEC working paper. 8 Rance J and Wade SD (2013). The possible impacts of climate change on public water supply availability over the 21st century. LWEC working paper. 9 Whitehead PG, Battarbee RW, Crossman J, Elliot JA, Wilby RL, Monteith DT and Kernan M (2013). River and lake water quality – future trends. LWEC working paper. 10 Wilby RL (2013). Future flood – magnitude and frequency. LWEC working paper. Other references: Jenkins GJ, Perry MC, and Prior MJ (2008). The climate of the United Kingdom and recent trends. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK. Murphy JM, Sexton DMH, Jenkins GJ, Boorman, PM, Booth BBB, Brown CC, Clark RT, Collins M, Harris GR, Kendon EJ, Betts RA, Brown SJ, Howard TP, Humphrey KA, McCarthy MP, McDonald RE, Stephens A, Wallace C, Warren R, Wilby R, Wood RA (2009), UK Climate Projections Science Report: Climate change projections. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter.
  20. 20. 20 This report card is published by the Living With Environmental Change (LWEC) Partnership with funding and practical input from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, Natural England, the Environment Agency and the Natural Environment Research Council. The production and writing of the report card have been led by the Environment Agency. Please cite this card as Watts G and Anderson M (eds.) (2013) A climate change report card for water. LWEC report card. ISBN 978-0-9928679-2-8 copyright©Living With Environmental Change. Living With Environmental Change Contributors Development of the water report card was led by Glenn Watts and Molly Anderson from the Environment Agency, supported by Neil Veitch. Contributors to the report card are: Rick Battarbee (University College London), Vicky Bell (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology), John Bloomfield (British Geological Survey), Eleanor Blyth (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology), Sue Crooks (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology), Jill Crossman (Oxford University), Andre Daccache (Cranfield University), Helen Davies (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology), Isabelle Durance (University of Cardiff), John A Elliot (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology), Grace Garner (University of Birmingham), Jamie Hannaford (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology), David M Hannah (University of Birmingham),Tim Hess (Cranfield University), Chris Jackson (British Geological Survey), Alison Kay (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology), Martin Kernan (University College London), Jerry Knox (Cranfield University), Jon Mackay (British Geological Survey), Don T Montieth (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology), Steve Ormerod (University of Cardiff), Jemima Rance (HR Wallingford), Nick Reynard (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology), Marianne E Stuart (British Geological Survey), Andrew Wade (University of Reading), Steven Wade (HR Wallingford), Keith Weatherhead (Cranfield University), Paul Whitehead (University of Oxford), Rob Wilby (University of Loughborough). Working Group Peer Review The working group, steering the content of the report card, was Konrad Bishop (Defra), Hans Jensen (UKWIR), Jim Hall (University of Oxford), Kathryn Humphrey (Adaptation Sub Committee), Nick Reynard (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology), Andrew Wade (University of Reading) and Steven Wade (HR Wallingford). The academic peer review group was chaired by Andrew Watkinson, Director of LWEC, and comprised: Jason Lowe (Met Office), Nigel Arnell (University of Reading), and Hayley Fowler (University of Newcastle).