Development of a National Vision - An analytic frameowrk - Irish TIMES

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Development of a National Vision - An analytic frameowrk - Irish TIMES

  1. 1. Development of a National VisionAn Analytic Framework – Irish TIMESBrian Ó Gallachóir, Alessandro Chiodi, Maurizio Gargiulo & Paul DeaneIreland in 2050: A Low Carbon Future – EPA/NESC14th November 2012 Customs House Dublin November 2012, Customs House, Dublin *
  2. 2. Irish TIMES ProjectPartnersFunded by
  3. 3. >200 MARKAL / TIMES Users
  4. 4. TIMES Modelling Cost and emissions balance TIMES model source availability GDP Coal processing Process energy Domestic Industry sources Heating area Refineries a Population P l ti Commercial and Power plants tertiary sector Light and ces, Res Transportation Communication Households Power Dem C CHP p a ts plants Person mandsEner pric and district kilometers heat networks rgy Imports Transportation Freight kilometers Gas network Primary energy Pi Final Fi l energy Service Demands S
  5. 5. Why bother modelling?• We can’t predict the future• Can’t small changes in inputs change the results?However ….• We have targets and goals that we need to meet• Uncertainty is not an excuse for inaction…. and robust well bounded models ….• avoid chaotic solutions id h ti l ti• can provide very useful insights regarding the future• can generate a knowledge base to underpin policy• can point to least risk choices via scenarios p• can strengthen our negotiating position
  6. 6. One purpose – Improved negotiationEU Analysis 2008 ySEC[2008] 85 Vol II - Page 43 Table 4– cost optimal 10% EU-non-ETS target €40 - €50/tCO2– non-ETS GHG reduction for Ireland of 17%IrishI i h TIMES S Scenario A l i 2011 i Analysis[€2000/ton CO2] Scenario 2020Non ETSNon-ETS emissions NETS GHG NETS-GHG 212.9
  7. 7. Second purpose – Inform climate policyScenario Description energy system demands met in the absence of emissions reductionREF targets.
  8. 8. Second purpose – Inform climate policyScenario Description energy system demands met in the absence of emissions reductionREF targets. 80% CO2 emissions reduction below 1990 l l b 2050 A i lt i i d ti b l levels by 2050. AgricultureCO2-2050 emissions are implicitly assumed to meet 80% reduction also.
  9. 9. Second purpose – Inform climate policyScenario Description energy system demands met in the absence of emissions reductionREF targets. 80% CO2 emissions reduction below 1990 l l b 2050 A i lt i i d ti b l levels by 2050. AgricultureCO2-2050 emissions are implicitly assumed to meet 80% reduction also. 95% CO2 emissions reduction target below 1990 levels (-96.6% relativeGHG-2050 to 2005). Agriculture is assumed to meet a 50% emissions reduction by 2050. y
  10. 10. Scenarios: REF 50 40 REF 30Mt CO2eq 20 ‐23.8% below 2005 34 MtM +12.2% above 1990 +12 2% b 1990 10 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 ‐10
  11. 11. Scenarios: CO2-2050 50 40 REF 30Mt CO2eq 20M CO2‐2050 CO2 2050 10 6 Mt 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 ‐10
  12. 12. Scenarios: GHG-2050 50 40 REF 30Mt CO2eq 20M Agriculture GHG in 2050 =  CO2‐2050 CO2 2050 Agriculture GHG in 2020 10 GHG‐20501 ‐8 Mt 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 ‐10
  13. 13. Scenarios : GHG-2050 50 40 REF 30Mt CO2eq 20 ≈50% expected 50% expected M CO2‐2050 CO2 2050 reduction in  10 Agriculture GHG GHG‐2050 1.5 Mt 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2050 ‐10
  14. 14. EE, Fuel Switching and RE
  15. 15. M Mt CO2eq 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 44.72005 REF F 33.7 Transport t 14.8 Electricity  5.8 generationn Industry y 3 3.6 Residential 2.3 Services s 1.2 6.0 CO2‐2050 02050 Transport t 0.0 Electricity  1.2 generationn Industry y 0.0 Residential 1.7 Services s 0.7 Agriculture 0.8 e 1.5 GHG‐2050 0 Scenario Results: 2050 Emissions Reductions
  16. 16. M Mt CO2eq 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 44.72005 REF F 33.7 Transport t 14.8 Electricity  5.8 generationn Industry y 3 3.6 Residential 2.3 Services s 1.2 6.0 CO2‐2050 02050 Transport t 0.0 Electricity  1.2 generationn Industry y 0.0 Residential 1.7 Services s 0.7 Agriculture 0.8 e 1.5 GHG‐2050 0 Scenario Results: Sectoral Emissions Reductions
  17. 17. Scenario Results: 2050 Residential TFC 3500 3000 2500 2000 Electricity toe Elec‐thkt 1500 Heat Renewable 1000 Gas G Oil 500 Coal+Peat 0 2005 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 REF REF REF REF REF 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2 CO2‐2 GHG‐2 CO2‐2 GHG‐2 CO2‐2 GHG‐2 CO2‐2 GHG‐2 CO2‐2 GHG‐2 . 2010 . 2020 . 2030 . 2040 ‐ 2050
  18. 18. Scenario Results: 2050 Transport 2500 2000 1500ktoe Electricityk Biogas 1000 Biodiesel Natural Gas Diesel 500 Gasoline 0 CO2‐80 CO2‐95 CO2‐80 CO2‐95 CO2‐80 CO2‐95 REF REF REF Private  Freight Public  Transport Transport 2050
  19. 19. Scenario Results: 2050 Electricity Demand 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 Transport ktoe e 2500 Residential Industry 2000 Power Sector 1500 Services Agriculture 1000 500 0 0 CO2‐80 CO2‐95 0 CO2‐80 CO2‐95 0 CO2‐80 CO2‐95 0 CO2‐80 CO2‐95 0 CO2‐80 CO2‐95 2005 5 REF REF REF REF REF . 2010 . 2020 . 2030 . 2040 ‐ 2050
  20. 20. Scenario Results: 2050 Electricity Generation 6000 5000 4000 Other Import/Export 3000 Renewables ktoe Gas CCS 2000 Gas Oil 1000 Coal CCS Coal+Peat 0 2005 ‐2050 ‐2050 ‐2050 ‐2050 ‐2050 ‐2050 ‐2050 ‐2050 ‐2050 ‐2050 REF REF REF REF REF CO2‐ CO2‐ CO2‐ CO2‐ CO2‐ GHG‐ GHG‐ GHG‐ GHG‐ GHG‐ ‐1000 . 2010 . 2020 . 2030 . 2040 ‐ 2050
  21. 21. Scenario Results: 2050 Renewable Energy 6000 CO2‐2050 GHG‐2050 68% RES 68% RES 85% RES 85% RES 5000 Currently Biomass RES‐E  467 ktoe 4000 RES‐T    98 ktoe RES‐H  218 ktoe oe 3000 BioEthanol BioEthanol kto Biogas Biogas 2000 Wind Wind Biodiesel Biomass Biodiesel 1000 Biomass Ocean Hydro Hydro 0 Biogas and Waste Biogas and Waste RES E RES‐E RES T RES‐T RES H RES‐H RES E RES‐E RES T RES‐T RES H RES‐H CO2‐2050 GHG‐2050 2050
  22. 22. The costs .. MACC..Scenario 2020 2030 2040 2050CO2 80CO2-80 33 136 99 273CO2-85 33 131 158 523CO2-90CO2 90 33 127 158 694CO2-95 =GHG-80 65 185 173 1308NETS-20/CO2-80 167 113 116 273NETS-80NETS 80 141 97 87 554
  23. 23. The costs .. System Costs..
  24. 24. The costs .. System Costs / GDP
  25. 25. Next Steps• Consultation with stakeholders• Update input assumptions• Improve energy efficiency options• Reintegrate within European PET model• Model electrification (heating and transport) within PLEXOS• Move to co-optimisation (energy and agriculture together).• Feedback to economy (elastic demand and CGE)
  26. 26. Thank You Energy Policy  &  Modelling GroupEnergy Policy and Modelling Group on

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