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What the World Environment Might Look Like in 2050 and What We Can do About It
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What the World Environment Might Look Like in 2050 and What We Can do About It

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Simon Upton, OECD - What the World Environment Might Look Like in 2050 and What We Can do About It

Simon Upton, OECD - What the World Environment Might Look Like in 2050 and What We Can do About It

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  • % increase of GDP, 2010-2050 (right-top of the blocks)
  • In the baseline there is already a relative decoupling between economic activity and emissions: GDP is projected to grow much more rapidly than emissions (this is the result of a mixture of effects, including e.g. energy policies)A huge reduction of emissions is possible at a cost of 0.2 %-point of GDP; this results in GDP being 5.5% below the Baseline in 2050.To avoid excessive costs, an overshoot of the targeted concentration level (450 ppm) has now become inevitableA significant carbon price is needed to induce mitigation action and stimulate technological change. The 450 Core scenario assumes a global carbon price gradually increasing rapidly to USD 325/tCO2e in 2050.Ambitious mitigation action will not eliminate all climate impacts, but substantially lowers the risk of catastrophic climate change. These costs of action do NOT reflect the reduced damages or other benefits from action, such as improved health from reduced local air pollution or possible biodiversity benefits. Stern estimated that these costs of inaction could amount to more than 14% of per capita consumption. Given the huge scale of the problem, keeping costs as low as possible is essential to achieve the ambitious goal of limiting temperature increases to 2 degrees. Not relying on market-based instruments or on actions in all sectors, gases and regions will increase these costs and thereby make the target more difficult to achieve.
  • Note that land use change and management continues to be a key pressure driving biodiversity loss to 2050 (food crop, bioenergy. pasture) Looking at the relative contributions over time, climate change is the fastest growing pressure on biodiversity loss between 2010 and 2050.
  • Technologies are there to do it, these have a cost and pricing is one of the ways, there are other mechanismsRainwater capacity is the one to flagIn water scarce environment
  • NB: The energy use only refers to the transport sector – but the GDP is for the whole economy.
  • NB: The energy use only refers to the transport sector – but the GDP is for the whole economy.
  • A megacity is usually defined as a metropolitan area with a total population in excess of 10 million people.As of 2012, there are 21 megacities in existence– with conurbations such as Mumbai, Tokyo, Seoul, New York City, and Mexico City having populations in excess of 20 million inhabitants each.By 2025, seven of the world's top ten megacities will be in Asia.
  • Transcript

    • 1. Environmental Outlook to 2050Dublin, Ireland27th June 2012Simon UptonDirectorOECD Environment Directorate For more information, see www.oecd.org/greengrowth
    • 2. GDP per capita (000 USD) 70 GDP +124% 60 50 40 GDP +478% OECD 30 GDP +295% 20 GDP +458% WORLD 10 BRIICS RoW 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 OECD WORLD Population (billions) RoW BRIICS Population (billions)Source: OECD (2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050, Baseline projection using ENV-Linkages model
    • 3. Population and urbanisation80% 10,000,000 Percentage of Urban % Total Population Population 9.2 Bn Rural % (thousands) 9,000,00070% Total population 70% 8,000,00060% Urban Population 7,000,00050% 6.4 Bn 6,000,00040% 5,000,000 4,000,00030% 30% 3,000,00020% 2,000,00010% 1,000,0000% 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Source: Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social 3 Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision,
    • 4. The emergence of 3 billion middle-class consumers will fuel future demand 4.88 Global middle class1 Billions of people 3.25 3 billion 1.85 0.03 ROW Latin America 3.23 North America Europe 1.74 Asia-Pacific 0.53 2009 2020 2030 1 Based on daily consumption per capita ranging from $10 to $100 (in purchasing power parity 4 terms) SOURCE: OECD (2011), Perspectives on Global Development: Social Cohesion in a Shifting World
    • 5. Growth – not just a developing country concern Demographics Debt Jobs Percent of GDP 3.0 20.0 Per cent of GDP To return to 2007 Millions 7.0 16 employment levels Changes in age related public spending to 2025 15.0 2.0 6.0 14 Deficit improvement to achieve 60% 12 debt to GDP by 2025 10.0 5.0 Pensions 1.0 10 Employment growth 5.0 Long term care 4.0 8 (%) Health 0.0 (Left hand axis) 0.0 3.0 6 2.04 -5.0 -1.0 2 Additional 1.0 unemployed since -10.0 0 -2.0 2007 0.0 (Right hand axis) -15.0-1.0 -3.0 -20.0 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
    • 6. Linking economy and environmentPopulation & demographics Capital supply Natural resources Fuel prices Economic growth efficiency efficiency Energy Yield Energy use Bioenergy Land use Local air GHG emissions Deforestation pollution (under construction) Health & Climate Water stress Biodiversity environment change & water quality 6
    • 7. Environmental Outlook to 2050: Climate Change GHG emissions by region: Baseline, 2010-2050 OECD AI Russia & rest of AI Rest of BRIICS ROW 90GtCO2e 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from ENV-Linkages. 7
    • 8. Environmental State and Pressures 1 000 CO2 concentrations 900 3 - 6 C by 2100CO2 concentration (ppm) 800 700 600 500 450 ppm 400 300 200 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Source: OECD (2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050, Baseline projection using IMAGE model suite 8
    • 9. GHG emissions intensity and GDP Emissions intensity (kg CO2e / 2010 USD PPP) 1.0 RoW GHGRoW emissions 0.9 13 GtCO2e BRIICS GHGBRIICS 0.8 emissions 19 GtCO2e 0.7 World GHG emissionsWORLD 48 GtCO2e 0.6 0.5 OECD GHG emissionsOECD 0.4 16 GtCO2e RoW GHG BRIICS GHG World GHG emissions emissions emissions 0.3 22 GtCO2e 39 GtCO2e 81 GtCO2e OECD GHG 0.2 emissions 19 GtCO2e 0.1 0.0 0 50 000 100 000 150 000 200 000 250 000 300 000 350 000 RoW OECD WORLD BRIICS GDP (billions 2010 USD PPP) Source: OECD (2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050, Baseline projection using ENV-Linkages model
    • 10. Scenarios for the future to 2100The 450ppm core scenario, based on least cost timing of actionA « delayed action » scenario based on Copenhagen pledgesAn « accelerated action » scenario, implying reduced reliance on new technologiesA 550ppm « surrender « scenario GtCO2e Outlook Baseline 450 ppm Core 130 120 450 ppm Delayed Action 450 ppm Accelerated Action 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Source: OECD (2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050, Baseline projection using ENV-Linkages model 10
    • 11. Zooming in to 2050The 450ppm core scenario, based on least cost timing of actionA « delayed action » scenario based on Copenhagen pledgesAn « accelerated action » scenario, implying reduced reliance on new technologiesA 550ppm « surrender « scenario UNEP (2010) range Outlook Baseline GtCO2e 450 ppm Core 450 ppm Delayed Action 450 ppm Accelerated Action 550 ppm Core 60 Baseline GHG emissions in 2050 = 81 GtCO2e 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 0- 20 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Source: OECD (2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050, Baseline projection using ENV-Linkages model 11
    • 12. The cost of action is still affordable…for nowThe average GDP growth rate would slow by 0.2 percentage point between 2010 and 2050, from 3.5% to 3.3% in a context of quadrupling of world GDP. Benefits of action are not included in GDP projection Index 2010=100 450 400 Baseline GDP -5.5% 350 450 ppm core scenario 300 GDP 250 200 150 GHG emissions 100 GHG emissions -69.5% 50 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Source: OECD (2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050, Baseline projection using ENV-Linkages model 12
    • 13. Environmental Outlook to 2050: BiodiversityEffects of different pressures on terrestrial MSA: Baseline, 2010 to 2050 100% Infr+Encr+Frag 90% Climate Change Nitrogen Former Land-Use 80% MSA Forestry Pasture 70% Bioenergy Food Crop 60% Remaining MSA 0- 50% 2010 2030 2050 13 Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from IMAGE
    • 14. Environmental Outlook to 2050: Water Global water demand: Baseline scenario, 2000 and 2050 6 000 irrigation domestic livestock manufacturing electricityKm3 5 000 +140% 4 000 +400% 3 000 +130% 2 000 1 000 0 2000 2050 2000 2050 2000 2050 2000 2050 14 Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from IMAGE
    • 15. Water use reduction (per household) Water Use Reduction Strategy: North American Household (Temperate Region) 350 300Water Consumption (L/cap./day) 250 200 Leak detection & repair Water efficiency 150 Rain water capture Grey water harvesting 100 50 0 Conventional Low Water Source: Based on Toronto data; OECD 15
    • 16. Environmental Outlook to 2050: WaterNitrogen effluents from wastewater: Baseline, 2000 and 2050 OECD India China Africa Rest of the world Millions of tonnes of N / year 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2000 2050 16 Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from IMAGE
    • 17. Environmental Outlook to 2050: Water 17 Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from IMAGE
    • 18. Environmental Outlook to 2050: Health & Env. Global premature deaths from particulate matter and ground-level ozone 4.0 2010 2030 2050Deaths (millions of people) 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Ground-level ozone Particulate Matter 18 Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from IMAGE
    • 19. Challenges are so big that we can’t afford expensive solutions
    • 20. Environmental Outlook to 2050: What policies do we need? • Make pollution more costly 20 Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from IMAGE
    • 21. Fuel taxes, pre-tax fuel prices and energy use in the transport sector, per unit of GDP 90 90 United States 1.0 United StatesTonnes oil equivalent per million USD GDP unit 80 1.0 80 Petrol use per GDP unit use per GDP unit Petrol 70 Diesel use per GDP unit use per GDP unit 70 Diesel Other use per GDP unit use per GDP unit Other 0.8 Petrol tax rate, € Petrol tax rate, € 0.8 60 60 Diesel tax rate, € Rotterdam spot price, 98 octane unleaded petrol 50 0.6 50 0.6 € per litre 40 40 0.4 0.4 30 30 20 20 0.2 0.2 10 10 0 0 0.0 0.0 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Source: IEA’s energy balances
    • 22. Fuel taxes, pre-tax fuel prices and energy use in the transport sector, per unit of GDP 90 Petrol use per GDP unit Diesel use per GDP unit Turkey United States 1.0 1.0Tonnes oil equivalent per million USD GDP unit 80 Other use per GDP unit 70 Petrol use per GDP unit Petrol tax rate, € Diesel use per GDP unit Other use per GDP unit 0.8 0.8 60 60 Diesel tax rate, € Petrol tax rate, € Diesel tax rate, € Rotterdam spot price, 98 octane Rotterdam spot price, 98 octane unleaded petrol 50 50 unleaded petrol 0.6 0.6 € per litre 40 40 0.4 0.4 30 30 20 20 0.2 0.2 10 10 0 0.0 0 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 0.0 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Source: IEA’s energy balances.
    • 23. % of GDP -1.0 -0.5 2.0 2.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 Mexico United States Chile Canada * New Zealand Other Japan * 2009 figure Spain Australia France Poland Hungary Slovak Republic * Switzerland Belgium Iceland Motor vehicles Germany Luxembourg Norway Austria Portugal Energy Ireland United Kingdom Greece Italy Sweden Korea Finland Czech Republic Estonia Slovenia Israel Netherlands Turkey Denmark & raise revenues (Revenues in % of GDP, 2010) Weighted average Brazil ChinaSource: OECD/EEA database on instruments for environmental policy; www.oecd.org/env/policies/database. Colombia Environmentally related taxes: benefit the environment, innovation Costa Rica * South Africa
    • 24. Environmental Outlook to 2050: What policies do we need? • Make pollution more costly • Value and price the natural assets and ecosystem services 24 Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from IMAGE
    • 25. Mismeasurement and mismanagement % of GNI Forests & protected areas Subsoil Assets Pasture Land Crop 28% of Sub-Saharan Africa Natural Capital wealth Education Net Produced Capital saving +3.3% Net Foreign Assets 7.6% Resource depletion Intangible Capital -16.1% -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 Pollution -1.0% USD 2005, per capita -6.2% Adjusted net savings Source: World Bank Wealth of Nations
    • 26. Better measurement and better management Norway Savings rate Wealth Natural Capital Produced Capital Education Net Foreign Assets Intangible Capital Net +6.0% saving 1,000,000 Resource 26.2% depletion 800,000 -16.1% USD 280,000 Pollution per capita -0.1% 600,000 400,000 16.2% Adjusted 200,000 net savings 0 OECD average, 6.8% Norway OECD -200,000 USD 2005, per capita % of GNISource: World Bank Wealth of Nations
    • 27. Environmental Outlook to 2050: What policies do we need? • Make pollution more costly • Value and price the natural assets and ecosystem services • Remove environmentally harmful subsidies 27 Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from IMAGE
    • 28. Why make CO2 cheaper if you’re trying to make it scarcer? $45-75 USD $409 billion billion 2010 , developing $ 44 2010, in fossil country fossil fuel billion, 201 fuel support consumption 0, global in OECD countries renewable subsidies electricity subsidies5 Income gains from unilateral removal of fossil fuel consumer subsidies in emerging and developing countries (% change in HH income vs BAU)43 6% less emissions globally from removal2 of these fossil fuel subsidies10-1-2 Oil-exporting India China Russia Rest of the World Non-EU Eastern countries European Source: OECD (2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050, Baseline projection Countries using ENV-Linkages model based on IEA data; OECD and IEA analysis see website: www.oecd.org/iea-oecd-ffs 28
    • 29. Environmental Outlook to 2050: What policies do we need? • Make pollution more costly • Value and price the natural assets and ecosystem services • Remove environmentally harmful subsidies • Devise effective regulations and standards • Encourage green innovation 29 Source: OECD Environmental Outlook Baseline; output from IMAGE
    • 30. Israeli freshwater use (2009)a Abstraction per capita per capita Abstraction Intensity ofIntensity of use useel 220 Israel 220 Israel Israel 86.4ny 390 Germany 390 Germany Germany 27.6 27.6y Turkey 560 560 Turkey 17.8 Turkey 17.8ia Australia 640 640 Australia 3.6 Australia 3.6n Spain 710 710 Spain Spain 29.2 29.2es United States 1 630 1 630 United States 19.6 United States 19.6 0 400 800 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 0 1200 1600 2000 2400 0 20 0 40 20 60 40 80 60 100 8 m3/ capita m3/ capita abstraction as % abstraction as % of internal resources resource of internalavailable year. a) Or latest available year.CD, Environment Environment Directorate. Source: OECD, Directorate. a) Or latest available year 30 Source: OECD, Environment Directorate.
    • 31. Israeli economic efficiency of agricultural water use, 1986-2008Indice 1986=100140120100 80 60 40 Valor de la producción agrícola por m3 de agua utilizada para irrigación 20 Precio real del agua dulce para agricultura (deflactado con el índice de precios al consumidor) 0 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Source: OECD (2010), OECD Review of Agricultural Policies: Israel, 2010 . 31
    • 32. General environmental managementIsraeli Patents in selected environment & climate-related technologies, 1995-2008 technologies Número de of number patents patentes 100 90 Total patents de patentes Número total 80 Reducción de la Water pollution abatement 70 contaminación del agua 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 El número de patentes está basado en la fecha de prioridad, el país de residencia del inventor y utiliza 32 contabilización fraccionada de las solicitudes PCT en fase internacional (denominaciones de EPO). Fuente: OECD (2011), OECD Patent Statistics Database; OECD, Environment Directorate.
    • 33. You can’t manage what you don’t measure
    • 34. A framework for green growth indicators 1 Indicators monitoring environmental and resource productivity 2 Indicators monitoring the natural asset base 3 Indicators monitoring the environmental quality of life 4 Indicators monitoring economic opportunities and policy responses The socio-economic context and characteristics of growth
    • 35. Proposed headline indicators Environmental and resource productivity 1 CO2 productivity Carbon productivity 2 Non-energy material productivity Resource productivity 3 Multifactor productivity (incl. environmental services) Multifactor productivity The natural asset base Renewable and non- 4 Sustainability index for natural resources renewable stocks 5 Land use and cover Biodiversity and ecosystems Environmental quality of life Environmental health and 6 Air pollution: population exposure to PM2.5 risks Economic opportunities and policy responses Placeholder – no indicator specified
    • 36. Word analysis of Rio+20 Outcome "Future We Want" word occurrences 160 140 120Number of occurrences 100 80 60 40 20 0 Source:OECD analysis based on UNCSD Rio+20 Outcome Text: 36 “The Future We Want”
    • 37. What you don’t know can hurt you www.oecd.org/environment/outlookto2050
    • 38. Rise of the mega-cities 50 Population (Millions) 29 mega-cities in 2025 45 Delhi 40 21 mega-cities in 2012 Tokyo 35 Mumbai Mexico City 30 25 Sao Paolo 9 mega-cities in 1985 NYC 20 Beijing 15 NYC only mega-city in 1950 Rio London 10 Mega-city = Largest cities in the world 7000 BC until 1800 10M 5 Rome Baghdad Kaifeng (900k) (1M) Beijing Uruk Mari (1.2M) Constantinople Jericho (500k) Ur Babylon (200k ) (400k) (100k) (100k) (600k) (1M) 0(- = BC) -7000 -3500 -2500 -2100 -700 200 600 900 1200 1500 1800 1825 1900 1950 2007 2020 2025 Source: http://geography.about.com/library/weekly/aa011201a.htm, citing 38 Chandler, T. (1987) Four Thousand Years of Urban Growth: An Historical Census, Edwin Mellen Press.