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Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Ireland – Trends and Projections

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Dr Maria Martin, EPA - Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Ireland – Trends and Projections

Dr Maria Martin, EPA - Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Ireland – Trends and Projections

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  • 1. State of the Environment in Ireland 2012Meeting the Main Environmental ChallengesWorkshop - 27 June 20122012 Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Ireland – Trends and Projections Dr Maria Martin Climate Change and Environmental Research Programme
  • 2. EPA’s role on inventories and projections EPA was established as the competent authority for the National Atmospheric Inventory System in 2007 National Climate Change Strategy (2007) designated the EPA responsible for producing national emission projections EPA submits figures to EU and UN on an annual basis for inventories and EU biannually for projections EPA Team – Dr. Eimear Cotter, Paul Duffy, Bernard Hyde Stephan Leinert and Emilia Hanley Coordination, quality assurance and quality control of data from wide range of sources e.g.  SEAI, Teagasc, CSO, Department of Agriculture and Marine, ESRI
  • 3. Greenhouse Gas Trends 1990-2010 80 -4% 70 +27% -9% 60Mtonnes, CO2eq 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Energy Residential Industry & Commercial Agriculture Transport Waste
  • 4. Sectoral Emission Trends 1990-2010 25 20Mtonnes, CO2eq 15 10 5 0 Waste Transport 1.4% Energy 18.9% 21.8% Energy Residential Industry & Commercial Agriculture Transport Waste Residential 12.7% Agriculture 30.5% Industry & Commercial 2010 14.6%
  • 5. Ireland’s Emissions Trading Sector 25 -9% -16% 20 +1% -9% Mtonnes, CO2eq 15 10 5 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201130% drop in emissions from the Emissions Trading Sector between 2005 and 2011 5
  • 6. Greenhouse Gas Emission Projections 70 60 50 Mtonnes, CO2eq 40 With Measures – existing policies and measures With Additional Measures – existing and planned policies and measures 30 20 10 - 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 With Measures With Additional Measures
  • 7. Kyoto Protocol Limit 75 Ireland is on track to 70 meet its KyotoMtonnes, CO2eq 65 Kyoto Limit = 62.837 commitment 60 55 Projections indicate 50 4.1-5.1 Mt CO2eq above 45 KP limit over 2008-2012 40 Range represents two scenarios – With With Measures With Additional Measures Kyoto Limit Baseline Measures and With Additional Measures 7
  • 8. EU 2020 Targets Overall target is 20% reduction compared to 1990 levels Separates the effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions between ETS and non-ETS sectors over period 2013-2020 ETS – EU wide cap rather than national caps, reducing by 1.74% per annum to give an overall reduction of 21% by 2020 compared to 2005. No free allocation to Powergen sector Limited free allocation starting at 70%, reducing to 30% benchmark in other areas Sectors subject to carbon leakage receive 100% benchmark
  • 9. Non–ETS sectors Non-ETS sectors - transport, buildings, agriculture and waste - governed by the EU Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) Establishes annual binding greenhouse gas emission targets for EU Member States for non-ETS sectors for the period 2013–2020 The target for Ireland for non-ETS sectors is to reduce emissions by 20% in 2020 relative to 2005 levels
  • 10. EU Effort Sharing Decision – 20% 45 40 35 30 CO2eq, Mtonnes 25 20 15 10 5 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 WM WAM Annual Limits 10
  • 11. Sectoral Share – non-ETS sectors Residential Waste 3% Agriculture and 12% transport - 75% of non- Industry& ETS sector emissions Commercial in 2020 10% Agriculture 48% Shows the important role that transport and agriculture will play in Transport 27% developing mitigation options to achieve 2020 targets 2020 11
  • 12. Transport EPA’s Transport projection assumes  Technological improvements – improved fuel efficiency  10% biofuels in 2020  Achievement of electric vehicle target of 200,000 electric vehicles by 2020  More efficient traffic movements Further improvements are possible – require behavioural changes and removal of barriers to new technologies
  • 13. Agriculture Agriculture projection assumes  Full achievement of Food Harvest targets  Removal of milk quota by April 1 2015  Efficiencies included in line with Sectoral Road Map for Dairying Teagasc (2012) – potential for further reductions- improvements in the Economic Breeding Index, extended grazing and nitrogen efficiency - require behavioural changes incentivisation.
  • 14. Flexibilities under the Effort SharingDecision Carry forward from the following year a quantity of up to 5% of its annual emission allocation Carry over of excess emission reductions to the subsequent years Transfer part of the annual emission allocation to other Member States Use of credits up to 3% of a Member States 2005 emissions - additional 1% limit for some MS
  • 15. Conclusions Ireland is on track to meet its Kyoto commitment taking into account the EU ETS and/or the potential use of credits already purchased by the State Ireland is projected to exceed its EU Effort Sharing Decision annual limits in 2015-2017 and its 2020 target Now is the time to set both the right level of ambition and the right pace of transition to a low-carbon economy Need to focus on delivering currently planned policies and measures to achieve With Additional Measures scenario and identify new policies and measures Focus should be on domestic action – agriculture and transport Domestic action can contribute to economic recovery, innovation and wider environmental benefits.