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The potential for further emission reductions in the EU - Markus Amann

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  • 1. The potential for furtheremission reductions in the EUAir Science-Policy ForumApril 15, 2013, Dublin, IrelandMarkus AmannInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
  • 2. Measures are available to further reduceair pollution impacts in the EUPotential gains from further policy interventions:• 60-70 mio years of life lost + 2,500 less premature deaths• Protection of biodiversity in 95,000 km2 of Natura2000 areas against NdepositionLife shortening PMImpacts indicators for 20250%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%TSAP-2013TSAP-2012TSAP-2013TSAP-2012TSAP-2013TSAP-2012TSAP-2013TSAP-2012HealthPMHealthO3Eutro-phicationAcidi-ficationImpactindicatorrelativeto2005CLE-2005 MTFR-CLE MTFRPremature deaths O3Eutrophication Natura2000 Forest AcidificationRemaining problem areas in2025
  • 3. Outlook: EU emissions to 2050Further SO2 and NOxcuts from climatestrategies,but dedicated airpollution measures willbe important, especiallyfor PM, NH3 and VOC0123452010 2020 2030 2040 2050MilliontonsSO2Baseline - CLEBaseline - MTFRDecarb - CLEDecarb - MCE0123456789102010 2020 2030 2040 2050MilliontonsNOxBaseline - CLEBaseline - MTFRDecarb - CLEMCE0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.62010 2020 2030 2040 2050MilliontonsPM2.5Baseline - CLEBaseline - MTFRDecarb - CLEDecarb - MCE0123452010 2020 2030 2040 2050MilliontonsNH3Baseline - CLEBaseline - MTFRDecarb - CLEDecarb - MCE01234567892010 2020 2030 2040 2050MilliontonsVOCBaseline - CLEBaseline - MTFRDecarb - CLEDecarb - MCESO2VOCNH3NOxPM2.5Blue: BAU baseline, Red: climate policy + healthy diet scenario
  • 4. Mitigation potential for SO2TSAP-2013 baseline for 2025Further potential in 2025: 33%Key measures:• Industry:– Stricter controls on industrialprocess emissions– FGD/low S fuels for industrialfurnaces– FGD for refineries and cokeplants• Domestic sector:– Low sulfur coal/briquettes forsmall stoves0123456782005 CLE FurtherpotentialMTFRMilliontonsSO2AgricultureWasteNon-roadRoad transportSolventsIndustryDomesticPowerplantsSO2 emissions in 2005 and 2025
  • 5. Mitigation potential for NOxTSAP-2013 baseline for 2025Further potential in 2025: 25%Key measures:• Industry:– SCR for cement plants– SCR/SNCR for mid-size boilers– Stricter controls on someindustrial process emissions• Power sector:– SCR/SNCR for mid-size boilers0246810122005 CLE FurtherpotentialMTFRMilliontonsNOxAgricultureWasteNon-roadRoad transportSolventsIndustryDomesticPowerplantsNOx emissions in 2005 and 2025
  • 6. Mitigation potential for PM2.5TSAP-2013 baseline for 2025Further potential in 2025: 45%Key measures:• Domestic sector:– Modern biomass stoves withlower emissions and higherenergy efficiency• Agriculture:– (Enforcement of) ban ofagricultural waste burning• Industry:– Stricter PM controls on someindustrial processes0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82005 CLE FurtherpotentialMTFRMilliontonsPM2.5AgricultureWasteNon-roadRoad transportSolventsIndustryDomesticPowerplantsPM2.5 emissions in 2005 and 2025
  • 7. Mitigation potential for NH3TSAP-2013 baseline for 2025Further potential in 2025: 30%Key measures:• Agriculture:– Efficient (‘low emission’)application of urea fertilizer– Low nitrogen feed(pigs, dairy cows, poultry)– Low emission application oflivestock manures;liquid and solid– Closed storage of manuresand new low emission housing(pigs, poultry)0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.52005 CLE FurtherpotentialMTFRMilliontonsNH3AgricultureWasteNon-roadRoad transportSolventsIndustryDomesticPowerplantsNH3 emissions in 2005 and 2025
  • 8. Mitigation potential for VOCTSAP-2013 baseline for 2025Further potential in 2025: 40%Key measures:• Solvents:– Further substitution(low-solvent and water-basedproducts and processes)• Domestic sector:– Modern biomass stoves/boilers(lower emissions & higherenergy efficiency)• Agriculture:– (Enforcement of) ban ofagricultural waste burning0123456789102005 CLE FurtherpotentialMTFRMilliontonsVOCAgricultureWasteNon-roadRoad transportSolventsIndustryDomesticPowerplantsVOC emissions in 2005 and 2025
  • 9. 0501001502002500% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%billionEuro/yrGap closure (% between CLE and MTFR)Emission control costsMany of these measures are cost-effectiveand yield high (health) benefitsMarginal benefits exceed marginal costsfor at least 75% of the potentialfrom all measuresTotal costs and health benefitsof further emission reductions0501001502002500% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%billionEuro/yrGap closure (% between CLE and MTFR)Benefits rangeEmission control costs0123450 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100Marginalcost/benefits(billionEuro/%gapclosure)Gap closure (% between CLE and MTFR)Marginal benefits (range)/%Marginal costs/%Marginal costs and marginal benefits
  • 10. Cost-effective solutions implyuneven distribution of emission control costsIn a cost-effective scenario(developed for the TSAP revision):Additional costs (5.4 bn €/yr) :– 32% in domestic sector– 21% in industry– 20% agriculture– 14% solvents– 12% power sectorThese shares a different fromcosts for current legislation:– 55% road transport,– 12% power,– 10% non-road, 9% industry,– 2% agriculture0123456billionEuro/yrDomesticAgriculturePowerInd. combustionInd. processesSolventsAdditional emission control costsby sector
  • 11. Conclusions• A range of measures is available that could yield significant improvementsof air pollution impacts in a cost-effective way, where benefits exceedcosts at a high margin. Many of these measures are already applied insome countries, but not community-wide .Changing entry points for future emission reductions:• Climate policies can contribute to reductions of SO2 and NOx,especially for sectors that have already tight emission controls.• Further controls of PM, NH3 and VOC require action through dedicatedair pollution policies, especially for (dispersed) sources in sectors thathave contributed less to emission reductions in the past.