The economics of air quality and associated policy responses - Ton Manders
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The economics of air quality and associated policy responses - Ton Manders

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    The economics of air quality and associated policy responses - Ton Manders The economics of air quality and associated policy responses - Ton Manders Presentation Transcript

    • 15th April | Air Science Policy (ASP),Dublin | Ton Manders1The economics of airquality andassociated policyresponses
    • 15th April | Air Science Policy (ASP),Dublin | Ton Manders2ContentOECD Environmental Outlookto 2050Co-benefitsCosts and benefits
    • 15th April | Air Science Policy (ASP), Dublin | Ton Manders3Urban air pollution to become top by 20500.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0ParticulateMatterGround-levelozoneUnsafe WaterSupply and…Indoor AirPollutionMalariaDeaths (millions of people)201020302050Global premature deaths fromselected environmental risks: Baseline, 2010 to 2050
    • Urban air pollution worse than WHO guidelines15th April | Air Science Policy (ASP), Dublin | Ton Manders40 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220OECDBrazilRussiaIndiaIndonesiaChinaAfricaSouth…μg/m3201020302050WHO Air Quality Guideline20PM10 concentration in major cities: Baseline, 2010-2050
    • Premature deaths (PM) more than double15th April | Air Science Policy (ASP), Dublin | Ton Manders50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.02000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Deaths(millionsofpeople)OECD BRIICS RoWPremature deaths worldwide from exposure to PM: Baseline
    • OECD high premature death rates from ground-level ozone15th April | Air Science Policy (ASP), Dublin | Ton Manders6020406080100120140OECD India South +SE Asia Other countriesDeathspermillioninhabitants2010 2030 2050Premature deaths linked to ground-level ozone worldwide: BaselineNumber of deaths per million inhabitants
    • Co-benefits of Air Pollution Policy Air pollution policy depends on end-of-pipe controls (< 50%) Required emission reduction will come from changes in theuse of energy (>50%)– efficiency improvements– fuel switching– other structural changes in the economy. Greenhouse gas emissions decrease, which renders climatechange policies less costly.15th April | Air Science Policy (ASP), Dublin | Ton Manders7
    • 15th April | Air Science Policy (ASP), Dublin | Ton Manders8
    • Costs and benefits - general Methodology– Discounting– Valuation (VOLY)– Scope Costs– Agriculture (NH3, manure)– Transport (inland shipping), consumers– Manufacturing, refineries Benefits– Health (premature deaths)– Nature– Economic15th April | Air Science Policy (ASP), Dublin | Ton Manders9
    • Costs and benefits - Netherlands15th April | Air Science Policy (ASP), Dublin | Ton Manders10
    • Nitrogen dioxide (NO2), 203011
    • Health impacts: years of life lost, 203012
    • Sea-based versus land-based air policies:cost and benefits and cost-effectiveness compared13
    • Good is not alway best - optimal policy15th April | Air Science Policy (ASP), Dublin | Ton Manders14
    • Take away Air quality/pollution is a policy topic of sustained importanceglobally into the future Air quality/pollution policies can carry high benefits andreasonably low costs There are however, many complexities and considerations interms of weighing up the costs and benefits of actions in thecontext of broader policy decisions15th April | Air Science Policy (ASP), Dublin | Ton Manders15
    • References OECD (2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050, OECD PBL (2012), Air Pollution Policy in Europe: Quantifying theInteraction with Greenhouse Gases and Climate ChangePolicies, PBL Working Paper 7 / CPB Discussion Paper 220 PBL (2012), Assessment of the environmental impacts andhealth benefits of a nitrogen emission control area in theNorth Sea, PBL Policy S ton.manders@pbl.nl15th April | Air Science Policy (ASP), Dublin | Ton Manders16