SEAI Energy Modelling GroupMatthew Clancy<br />
Overview<br />The Energy Modelling Group (EMG)<br />EMG’s Annual Energy Forecast <br />Other models used by EMG<br />Areas...
Energy Modelling Group<br />SEAI’s Statistics unit in Cork gathers historical data and details how things are<br />EMG’s r...
Energy Modelling Group<br />Supporting DCENR<br />National Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Action Plans<br />Ad-hoc...
National Energy Forecast<br />
Annual Energy Forecasts<br />Purpose<br />Model impact of achievement of current Government targets for energy efficiency ...
Process<br />Stakeholder Consultation<br /><ul><li>Baseline
NEEAP/NREAP
Exploratory</li></li></ul><li>Scenarios<br />Baseline Scenario<br />Measures in place before the end 2009<br />Recent Ener...
Total Final Demand (NEEAP/NREAP)<br />-9.4%<br />
Renewable Energy (NEEAP/NREAP)<br />RES-E 40%- 8.5% RES<br />RES-H12%- 4.3% RES<br />RES-T 10%- 3.1% RES<br />
Selected Outputs from Other in-house modelling<br />
2050 Roadmaps for Ireland<br />Outlines a number of possibilities for Ireland in various sectors:<br />Residential Buildin...
Electricity Price 2011<br />Impact of wind on electricity prices in 2011 SEAI and EirGrid<br />PLEXOS model of All-Island ...
Upcoming EMG Outputs 2011<br />2011 National Energy forecast<br />Stakeholder Consultation<br />Ex-post billing analysis o...
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SEAI Energy Modelling Group Summary - Matthew CLancy, SEAI -EPA

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  • Less about what will happen in the future - and more about how polices within sectors interact with each other under a given set of economic circumstances.value is the effect policy can have within a sectorhow sectors interact with each otherlook at possible trade-offs when looking at future targets and obligations.
  • Forecasted energy demand based on macro-economic trends (by sector and fuel) - generate a baseline and scenarios to look at what it would mean to meet current Gov targetsFeeds in to EPA Emissions forecasts…
  • Forecasted energy demand based on macro-economic trends (by sector and fuel) - generate a baseline and scenarios to look at what it would mean to meet current Gov targetsFeeds in to EPA Emissions forecasts…
  • Forecasted energy demand based on macro-economic trends (by sector and fuel) - generate a baseline and scenarios to look at what it would mean to meet current Gov targetsFeeds in to EPA Emissions forecasts…
  • Energy balance key input (EPSSU) – energy use by sector by fuelInitial set of assumptions, Scenarios by DCENR, ESRI and EPAConsulted with a range of government departments through the Technical Analysis Steering Group – incl Envir, Finance, Trans, Agri, Hand over to ESRI where they run two modelsHERMES (macro economic model) basis future tends based on past trends (impacts of prices, other Marco economic trends on energy demand) IDEM electricity model economic optimisation model - least cost arrangement of generating plant to meet demandEE savings are applied to the relevant scenarios – modelling around potential impact of policies and measuresPreliminary numbers run past stakeholdersAdjustments are made and the final iteration of modelling takes place.
  • Once demand is adjusted by EE savings can apply the % renewables targetsDescribe what each scenario is. For Exploratory changes year to year…Start to look at other options this year for example for extended efficiency
  • This slide showing NEEAP effectDemand reductions are observed across all sectors of the economy.Coloured bars show impact of 20% National energy efficiency targetFurther reduces Baseline energy demand in 2020 by 9.4%, as detailed in the NEEAP/NREAP scenario (coloured bars). Most of this reduction is expected to be achieved by the Government’s recently announced National Retrofit Scheme, which seeks to improve the energy performance of our existing buildings and reduce demand from the day-to-day operation of our business and public sector.Some of the other measures detailed on the next slide....
  • Alternative view to headline energy forecasts – top down v bottom up characterisationSectoral disaggregation of demand Stock data, activity levels, intensity and projections of theseOnce baseline established - scenarios can be developed (strength of tool) – this year multiple retrofit scenarios (depths)Level of EV s and depth of residential efficiency retrofit
  • Alternative view to headline energy forecasts – top down v bottom up characterisationSectoral disaggregation of demand Stock data, activity levels, intensity and projections of theseOnce baseline established - scenarios can be developed (strength of tool) – this year multiple retrofit scenarios (depths)Level of EV s and depth of residential efficiency retrofit
  • Thanks to ESRI and UCC,Thanks to Stakeholders involved in Process
  • SEAI Energy Modelling Group Summary - Matthew CLancy, SEAI -EPA

    1. 1. SEAI Energy Modelling GroupMatthew Clancy<br />
    2. 2. Overview<br />The Energy Modelling Group (EMG)<br />EMG’s Annual Energy Forecast <br />Other models used by EMG<br />Areas of Application<br />
    3. 3. Energy Modelling Group<br />SEAI’s Statistics unit in Cork gathers historical data and details how things are<br />EMG’s role is to support policy development through the use of modelling of their impacts – what ifs? <br />Main annual publication is the National Energy Forecast<br />Feeds into EPA projections<br />Other Modelling capacity to complement forecast and deal with more ad-hoc modelling projects.<br />Least Cost (BEAM, PLEXOS)<br />Bottom-up (LEAP)<br />Data Sources - Grant Schemes, Smart Meter Trial, etc<br />Research community <br />
    4. 4. Energy Modelling Group<br />Supporting DCENR<br />National Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Action Plans<br />Ad-hoc modelling; analysis and evidence<br />Informing current debates<br />Impact of wind on 2011 electricity generation costs<br />2050 Roadmaps: Residential sector, Bio-energy, Wind (upcoming), Smart Grids<br />Expanding Monitoring & Verification of Efficiency Schemes <br />Home Energy Savings Scheme billing analysis<br />Public sector grant schemes (planned billing analysis and survey)<br />Cost benefit analysis<br />SEAI programmes<br />Proposed new Government programmes<br />
    5. 5. National Energy Forecast<br />
    6. 6. Annual Energy Forecasts<br />Purpose<br />Model impact of achievement of current Government targets for energy efficiency and renewable energy <br />Outputs<br />Demand by sector by fuel (scenarios)<br />Heat, electricity, transport split<br />Renewable contribution by source<br />Interpretation<br />Highlight how polices within/between sectors interact with each other under a given set of economic circumstances<br />Look at possible trade-offs when looking at future targets and obligations<br />
    7. 7. Process<br />Stakeholder Consultation<br /><ul><li>Baseline
    8. 8. NEEAP/NREAP
    9. 9. Exploratory</li></li></ul><li>Scenarios<br />Baseline Scenario<br />Measures in place before the end 2009<br />Recent Energy Efficiency Measures<br />Benchmark to measure other scenarios against<br />NEEAP/NREAP Scenario <br />National Energy Efficiency Action Plan (NEEAP) <br />20% EE Saving compared to 2001-2005<br />National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) <br />Two Binding Targets from Renewable Energy Directive<br />16% renewable energy share of total consumption – 10% in transport<br />Exploratory Scenario<br />More Optimistic Economic Forecast<br />Current Government Policy on Renewable Energy<br />White Paper Targets and Planned Gate 3 renewable energy projects<br />
    10. 10. Total Final Demand (NEEAP/NREAP)<br />-9.4%<br />
    11. 11. Renewable Energy (NEEAP/NREAP)<br />RES-E 40%- 8.5% RES<br />RES-H12%- 4.3% RES<br />RES-T 10%- 3.1% RES<br />
    12. 12. Selected Outputs from Other in-house modelling<br />
    13. 13. 2050 Roadmaps for Ireland<br />Outlines a number of possibilities for Ireland in various sectors:<br />Residential Buildings<br />Bioenergy<br />Ocean<br />Bioenergy Roadmap used BEAM to project to 2020 – bottom up modelling to 2050<br />Residential Roadmap bottom up modelling of scenarios<br />
    14. 14. Electricity Price 2011<br />Impact of wind on electricity prices in 2011 SEAI and EirGrid<br />PLEXOS model of All-Island SEM and UK Market<br />Showed that the installed wind capacity in 2011 does not increase the cost of electricity<br />
    15. 15. Upcoming EMG Outputs 2011<br />2011 National Energy forecast<br />Stakeholder Consultation<br />Ex-post billing analysis of the Impact of the Home Energy Savings Scheme (HES) – Paper accepted to International conference in Boston<br />Impact of policy options on Bioenergy production and use in Ireland <br />
    16. 16. email: emg@seai.ie<br />
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