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EC-Earth Climate Modelling Activities - Ray McGrath, Met Eireann
 

EC-Earth Climate Modelling Activities - Ray McGrath, Met Eireann

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Presentation from the workshop 'Informing and Enabling a Climate Resilient Ireland”' - held 23 March 2012. This event launched 2 EPA Climate Change Research Programme reports: ...

Presentation from the workshop 'Informing and Enabling a Climate Resilient Ireland”' - held 23 March 2012. This event launched 2 EPA Climate Change Research Programme reports:
CCRP9 'Ireland adapts to Climate Change' and CCRP10 'Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Sectoral Policies in Ireland'

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    EC-Earth Climate Modelling Activities - Ray McGrath, Met Eireann EC-Earth Climate Modelling Activities - Ray McGrath, Met Eireann Presentation Transcript

    • EC-Earth Climate Modelling Activities Ray McGrath, Met Éireann“Informing and Enabling a Climate Resilient Ireland” EPA, 23 March 2012
    • Climate Modelling• Broad details of ‘climate change’ are known• Impacts at local/regional level still uncertain• Main interest: precipitation extremes Dundrum Town Center – Oct 2011
    • The climate haschanged ~5% wetter formean annualrainfall
    • Changes in intense rainfall (1981-2010 v 1961-1990) Overall, the number of days with intense rainfall (>10mm) has increased ~7% Locally, the changes can exceed 20% For 5mm and 1mm thresholds the mean changes are 5% and 2-3% No spatial trend Naive argument: warming increases moisture in air (~7%/degree). Mean rainfall increasing ~3-4%/degree but extremes increasing at higher rate. Climate models underestimate the extremes.
    • Global picture
    • Is climate change increasing the current risk of flooding? Nature 470, Feb. 2011 report Modelled Autumn 2000 England/Wales flooding with/ without current warming and greenhouse gas emissions Results: 20th century greenhouse gas emissions increased risk of these floods by more than 20%.Environment Agency, 2001
    • EC-Earth: European consortium (29 Institutes) developing/running an ‘Earth System Model’ – ensemble approach Advantage in having global climate modelling capability in Ireland: •‘Big picture’ of climate, and climate model errors •Data access for driving regional models. •Contributing to international effort (IPCC) In 2007 Met Éireann, ICHEC and UCD became partners in EC-Earth
    • EC-Earth Simulations Experiment No. Years Background Spin-up 1370 Pre-1850 greenhouse gas concentrations Control 450 continuation of the spin-up runHistorical Period GHG concentration increasing (1850-2005) (ensemble of 14)Future Scenarios RCP 4.5/ 8.5 greenhouse gas scenarios (2006-2100) (ensemble of 28 i.e. 2 for each RCP) Decadal runs Focus on near future (1960-2035) 10 anomaly initialisation simulationsHigh resolution Target ~25km (~2000-2030)
    • EC-Earth Climate simulations
    • EC-Earth: Differences in 99 percentile values of max daily temperature 2071-2100 v 1971-2000 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5
    • Winter mean precipitation differences:2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990 (RCP 4.5)
    • Summer mean precipitation differences:2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990 (RCP 4.5)
    • What the EC-Earth model simulations suggest for IrelandChanges in the mean precipitation towards 2100: Wetter winters – increases ~5% (RCP 4.5) -15% (RCP8.5) Drier summers – decreases ~ 15-20% Other seasons also wetter but to a lesser extent.Changes in extreme/heavy precipitation events are likely to be positive across all seasons and exceed changes in the mean. Need regional climate modelling to tease out the details.
    • Downscaling the EC-Earth DataEC-Earth 125km Grid 4km Grid
    • Climate Projection for Extreme Precipitation Number of Days with Precipitation > 70mmChanges relative tocurrent climate =>
    • Climate model outputs All EC-Earth data freely available. Standard datasets delivered to CMIP5 via BADC for consideration by IPCC/AR5 Regional climate modelling in progress through EPA funded Fellowships - results will be available through ICHEC and (in a more digestible form) through the EPA Climate Information Platform.
    • Where to get the EC-Earth Data Register on BADC (British Atmospheric Data Centre): http://badc.nerc.ac.uk/home/index.html Look under CMIP5 experiments.
    • AcknowledgementsMet Éireann: Emily Gleeson, Seamus Walsh, Dave FitzgeraldICHEC: Alastair McKinstryUCD: Paul Nolan
    • June 2008: C4I - first regional climate modelling project in Regional changes in rainfallIreland summarised expected seasonal change (%) in rainfall DJF MAM “2021-2060 relative to 1961-2000 Wetter in autumn and winter: 5-10% increase in mid century, increasing 15-25% towards the end of the century. Summers are drier: 5-10% decrease for 2021-2060; 10-18% decrease towards the end of the century. Regional details are unreliable” JJA SAN