Science since the IPCC 4th assessment report - Prof. Ray Bates - EPA CC Conference June 2010


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  • WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin 2008 ( WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin 2008 ( WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin 2008 ( WMO
  • NOAA average annual global temperatures 1880-2009, relative to the average for 1901-2000 ( Though warming has not been uniform across the planet, the upward trend in the globally averaged temperature shows that more areas are warming than cooling. From 1900 through 2009 the globally averaged surface temperature rose by approximately 0.7° C. The rate of temperature increase has risen as well. For the last 50 years, global temperature rose at an average rate of about 0.13°C per decade-almost twice as fast as the 0.07°C per decade increase observed over the previous half-century. [But note that in the 30-year period 1910-40 it rose faster than in the 30-year period 1980-2010] n the next 20 years, scientists project that global average temperature will rise by around 0.2°C per decade.
  • See also: The Earth Observer, 2010, Vol 22, No. 2, p. 30.
  • (Hansen et al., 2010, to be submitted)
  • See Eumetsat IMAGE Issue 32 (May 2010). Satellite altimetry since 1993.
  • Arctic-wide annual averaged surface air temperature anomalies (60°–90°N) based on land stations north of 60°N relative to the 1961–90 mean. From the CRUTEM 3v dataset, ( /cru/data/temperature/ ).
  • . September ice extent from 1979 to 2009 shows a continued decline. The September rate of sea ice decline since 1979 has now increased to 11.2 percent per decade ( Sea Ice Index data , US National Snow and Ice Data Center, http:// / ).
  • [Cold summer 2009 and cold winter 2009-10 in NH not globally representative]
  • The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a phenomenon associated with fluctuations in temperatures, rainfall and storminess over much of Europe, especially in winter. When the NAO is 'positive' in winter, westerly winds are stronger or more persistent, northern Europe tends to be warmer and wetter than average and southern Europe colder and drier. When the NAO is 'negative' in winter, westerly winds are weaker or less persistent, northern Europe is colder and drier and southern Europe warmer and wetter than average. One of the simplest definitions of the NAO is that it is the difference in pressure at sea-level between the Azores and Iceland. [The NAO has dominated the low-frequency variability of European climate in recent decades. HadCM3 has clear deficiencies in its simulation of the NAO in a 100-yr control run. Therefore its predictions of future NAO behaviour must be treated with caution. Woolings et al., J.Cl., 2010, p. 1291].
  • Met Office Climate Indicators
  • Seamus Walsh email file
  • Colour code: White = (+0.25, -0.25) ˚ C, Red = (>1.5 ) ˚ C, Deep blue = (<-0.5) ˚ C
  • Solar irradiance through Nov 2008 (
  • Multi-model averages and assessed ranges for surface warming. IPCC 2007 (AR4), p. 14
  • IPCC 2007 p. 409. Sea level
  • Map of global surface temperature anomaly 2008 (Peterson et al ., 2009, p. S18).
  • The monthly time-series of England and Wales total precipitation (EWP) begins in 1766. The series is currently based on weighted averages of daily observations from a network of stations in five regions. It is the longest instrumental series of this kind in the world. Daily data begin in 1931. Data are available for EWP and for nine individual regions of the UK, including Scotland and Northern Ireland.
  • “ Observational evidence of a long-term trend in total solar irradiance”, C. Fr őlich, 2009, A&A, 501, L27-L30. (Files) Note: y-axis has 1000 subtracted
  • (Hansen et al., 2010, to be submitted). See also: The Earth Observer, Vol. 22, No. 2, p.30. Blue dots are monthly means, the black curve is the 5-year running mean.
  • Met Office Climate Indicators
  • Science since the IPCC 4th assessment report - Prof. Ray Bates - EPA CC Conference June 2010

    1. 1. Science Since the IPCC 4 th Assessment Report Ray Bates Meteorology and Climate Centre, School of Mathematical Sciences, UCD
    2. 2. <ul><li>1. Carbon Dioxide Increase </li></ul><ul><li>2. Global temperature Rise </li></ul><ul><li>3. Glacial Retreat </li></ul><ul><li>4. Sea Level Rise </li></ul><ul><li>5. Arctic Temperatures and Sea Ice </li></ul><ul><li>6. Natural Climate Variability </li></ul><ul><li>7. Irish Temperature Change </li></ul><ul><li>8. Solar Variability </li></ul><ul><li>9. Climate Model Projections </li></ul>
    3. 3. Carbon Dioxide Increase
    4. 5. Global Temperature Rise
    5. 11. Glacial Retreat
    6. 13. <ul><li>During the last 100 years, mountain glaciers all around the world have experienced considerable mass loss and large reductions in area. </li></ul><ul><li>The European Alps, for instance, had lost about 50% of their 1850s ice mass by the 1980s and melt rates accelerated toward the end of the twentieth century. </li></ul>
    7. 14. Sea Level Rise
    8. 17. Arctic Temperature Rise and Sea Ice Retreat
    9. 21. Natural Climate Variability
    10. 25. England and Wales Annual Precipitation 1766-2007
    11. 26. Irish Temperature Changes 1900-2009
    12. 28. Sea Surface Temperature Change in the Period 1977-2006 (Hoerling et al., Journal of Climate, 15 April 2010, p. 2131-2145)
    13. 29. Solar variations
    14. 32. <ul><li>Global climate models, developed jointly by meteorologists and oceanographers, are the most powerful tools available for examining the consequences of increased greenhouse gases. </li></ul>Climate Model Projections
    15. 35. Conclusions <ul><li>Most of the global temperaure rise (0.8 ˚C) and sea level rise (20 cm) of the past century is with a high degree of certainty due to human activities. Sea level is now rising at a rate of 3.2 mm/yr. </li></ul><ul><li>2. Climate models project that, if emissions continue unabated, these trends will continue and accelerate. </li></ul><ul><li>3. On a local and regional level, much of what may appear to be man-made climate change is actually natural variability. </li></ul>
    16. 36. The End