Modelling the impacts of electric vehicles on Greenhouse Gas emissions - Dr. Aoife Foley & Dr. Brian Ó Gallachóir

Modelling the Impacts of Electric Vehicles on Greenhouse Gas Emissions EPA Transport Seminar 13th October 2011 Dr. Aoife Foley & Dr. Brian Ó Gallachóir Energy Policy and Modelling Team, Environmental Research Institute, University College Cork

Overview • Background • International Roadmap • EU Roadmap • Ireland Roadmap • EV Technologies & Infrastructure • International Standardisation • Manufacturers/Government Roadmaps • EV Charging Profiles • Modelling (EV Car Stock, WASP-IV & PLEXOS) • Conclusions • Further activities/Next StepsA. Foley & B. Ó Gallachóir Modelling Impact of EVs on GHG Emissions 2 of 27

Background Transport, Energy & CO2 – Moving Towards Sustainability, OECD/IEA (2009)A. Foley & B. Ó Gallachóir Modelling Impact of EVs on GHG Emissions 3 of 27

International Roadmap Transport, Energy & CO2 – Moving Towards Sustainability, OECD/IEA (2009)A. Foley & B. Ó Gallachóir Modelling Impact of EVs on GHG Emissions 4 of 27

International Roadmap International Council on Clean Transportation, 2009A. Foley & B. Ó Gallachóir Modelling Impact of EVs on GHG Emissions 5 of 27

International Roadmap Energy Technologies Perspective, OECD/IEA (2010)A. Foley & B. Ó Gallachóir Modelling Impact of EVs on GHG Emissions 6 of 27

EU & National Roadmap • Initially Directive 2009/28/EC ~ 10% transport energy from other renewable sources not just biofuels • National Target ~ Ireland 10% EVs by 2020 • More recently the EU White Paper on Transport • Wait & see for impacts on National Policy • Focus of this research ~ purely EVs • Irrespective transport accounts for: – 41.4% overall energy demand – 35.2% CO2 emissions – 3.2% growth annually in transport energy demand* * = Howley, M., Dennehy, E., Ó Gallachóir, B., 2010, Energy in Ireland 1990 – 2009, 2010 Report. SEAI, 2010.A. Foley & B. Ó Gallachóir Modelling Impact of EVs on GHG Emissions 7 of 27

EU & National Roadmap Directives & policies applicable to the transport sector in 2020 include: – 20% reduction in emissions from the non- emissions trading sector – 10% of transport energy from renewable energy sources – Reduction in emission rates from passenger vehicles to an average of 95g CO2/km – National target 10% of fleet powered by electricity by 2020A. Foley & B. Ó Gallachóir Modelling Impact of EVs on GHG Emissions 8 of 27

EV Technologies & Infrastructure Two main EV types considered: – Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) – Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) ~ (Series/Parallel) Power Power BEV Powertrain Series - Electrical energy only - Single source energy to wheel - A motor Parallel - A battery pack - Two parallel paths of energy to wheelA. Foley & B. Ó Gallachóir Modelling Impact of EVs on GHG Emissions 9 of 27

EV Technologies & Infrastructure ESB ecar, 2011A. Foley & B. Ó Gallachóir Modelling Impact of EVs on GHG Emissions 10 of 32

International Standardisation ‘tsunami of codes and standards’ ~ Steven Rosenstock, Edison Electric Institute at the IEEE P1809 (now 2020.1) Kickoff Meeting on EVs in February 2010 – Society for Automobile Engineers (SAE) – American National Standards Institute (ANSI) – Deutsches Institut für Normung e. V. (DIN) – International Standards Organisation (ISO) – International Electromechanical Commission (IEC) – Japan EV Association Standards (JEVS)A. Foley & B. Ó Gallachóir Modelling Impact of EVs on GHG Emissions 11 of 27

International Standardisation • IEEE P2020.1 Guide for Electric-Sourced Transportation Infrastructure due end 2011 • US ANSI workshop April 2011 ~ USDOE & INL • EU M/468 ~ CEN/CENELEC Standardization Report • Japan ~ CHAdeMO • China • KoreaA. Foley & B. Ó Gallachóir Modelling Impact of EVs on GHG Emissions 12 of 27

Manufacturers/Government Roadmaps Country Targets Austria 2020: 100,000 EVs deployed Australia 2012: first cars on road, 2018: mass deployment, 2050: up to 65% of car stock Canada 2018: 500,000 EVs deployed China 2011: 500,000 annual production of EVs Denmark 2020:200,000 EVs France 2020: 2,000,000 EVs Germany 2020: 1,000,000 EVs deployed Ireland 2020: 10% EV market share Israel 2011: 40,000 EVs, 2012: 40,000 to 100,000 EVs annually Japan 2020: 50% market share of next generation vehicles New Zealand 2020: 5% market share, 2040: 60% market share Spain 2014: 1,000,000 EVs deployed Sweden 2020: 600,000 EVs deployed United Kingdom No target figures, but policy to support EVs United States of America 2015: 1,000,000 PHEV stockA. Foley & B. Ó Gallachóir Modelling Impact of EVs on GHG Emissions 13 of 32

Manufacturers/Government Roadmaps Car manufacturer Battery manufacturer Production Target BYD Auto BYD Group 2015: 100,000 Fiat-Chrysler A123 Systems No date, no numbers Ford Johnston Controls-Saft 5,000 per annum GM LG Chem 2011: 10,000 & 2012: 60,000 Hyundai LG Chem, SK Energy and SB Limotive 2018: 500,000 Mercedes-Benz Continental and Johnston Controls-Saft No date, no numbers Mitsubishi GS Yuasa Corp. 2010: 5,000, 2011: 15,000 Nissan AESC 2010: 50,000, 2012: 100,000 REVA Indocel Technologies No date, no numbers Renault AESC By 2010 150,000/annum Subaru AESC 2010: 100 Tata Electrovaya No date, no numbers Toyota Panasonic No date, no numbers Volkswagen Volkswagen and Toshiba Corp. 2011: 500A. Foley & B. Ó Gallachóir Modelling Impact of EVs on GHG Emissions 14 of 32

Charging Portfolios • Peak (Uncontrolled/unconstrained) • Off – peak (Controlled/delayed) • Opportunistic (Stochastic/continous)* • Wind- follow (Reneweble energy charging signal) * Markal et al (2009) over a 16 week period trial established that Evs parked 90% and plugged in 60% of the time!A. Foley & B. Ó Gallachóir Modelling Impact of EVs on GHG Emissions 15 of 27

EV Car Stock Additional CO2 emissions in the Electricity Sector (High, Medium & Low EV Scenarios), 2010 to 2025A. Foley & B. Ó Gallachóir Modelling Impact of EVs on GHG Emissions 16 of 27

WASP-IV • Traditional Long Term Generation Model • WASP IV ~ IAEA (free for academic users) • 3 optimisation techniques ~ optimal portfolio mix • Probabilistic estimation ~ determine system production costs, ENS costs & reliability • Linear programming ~ optimal portfolio mix, satisfy exogenous constraints on environmental emissions, fuel availability & electricity generation by some plants • Dynamic programming (DP) ~ alternative expansion plans • Heat rates, CAPEX, OPEX, Start-up Costs, Depreciation, Fuel prices, Ramp Rates, FOR, Plant Efficiencies etcA. Foley & B. Ó Gallachóir Modelling Impact of EVs on GHG Emissions 17 of 27

WASP-IV Scenario ApproachA. Foley & B. Ó Gallachóir Modelling Impact of EVs on GHG Emissions 18 of 27

WASP-IV Total Energy with & without PHEV ChargingA. Foley & B. Ó Gallachóir Modelling Impact of EVs on GHG Emissions 19 of 27

WASP-IVA. Foley & B. Ó Gallachóir Modelling Impact of EVs on GHG Emissions 20 of 27

PLEXOS PLEXOS for Power SystemsA. Foley & B. Ó Gallachóir Modelling Impact of EVs on GHG Emissions 21 of 27

PLEXOS • Market based power system model • Mathematical optimisation: Linear Programming (LP) Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) Stochastic Optimisation (SO) • Free for academic usersA. Foley & B. Ó Gallachóir Modelling Impact of EVs on GHG Emissions 22 of 27

PLEXOS 10% Renewable Energy 20% Emissions Target Wind Variability Target (%) (%) OFF PEAK Low Wind 1.42 0.88 High Wind 1.69 2.23 PEAK Low Wind 1.42 0.40 High Wind 1.65 1.84 W/FOLLOW* Low Wind 3.91 1.21 High Wind 4.29 2.13 OPP. Low Wind 1.65 0.25 High Wind 1.83 1.54 Some VERY Preliminary Results High & Low = +/- 1.8% sd * Relates to wind dispatch constraint of 75% (EirGrid &SONI, 2010)A. Foley & B. Ó Gallachóir Modelling Impact of EVs on GHG Emissions 23 of 32

Conclusions • EV Car Stock – 1.72% ~ 10% RES-T target by 2020 – 1.4% ~ 20% reduction Non-ETS emissions by 2020/05 • WASP-IV – 1.68% ~ 10% RES-T target by 2020 – 0.95% ~ 20% reduction Non-ETS emissions by 2020/05 • PLEXOS (MOSEK) ~ preliminary – SMP €56.27/MWh to €60.57/MWh – 1.42% to 4.29% ~ 10% RES-T target by 2020 – 0.25% to 2.23 % ~ 20% reduction Non-ETS emissions by 2020/05A. Foley & B. Ó Gallachóir Modelling Impact of EVs on GHG Emissions 24 of 27

Conclusions • OEM Technology roadmap slower ~ Government Policy Targets • All indications off-peak & wind-follow charging MOST effective • Peak charging ~ increased operation of peaking plant • Off-peak charging ~ slightly better operation of the base load plant than the wind-follow charging ~ base load cycling • Wind conditions appears to have serious impacts • Time of charging is most critical ~ ‘Smart’ controls & wind forecasting • Batteries …… • Generation Portfolio Mix & Weather • Annual SMP costs ~ approx €140 to €338/aA. Foley & B. Ó Gallachóir Modelling Impact of EVs on GHG Emissions 25 of 27

Further activities/Next Steps • Run PLEXOS using Xpress rather than Mosek • Stochastic Optimisation • EV Charging (Load) Profiles • SOX & NOX in PLEXOS • Weather Impacts (Wet/Cold) • TIMES (Hannah Daly) • Well to Wheel Analysis • Wholesale ~ retail? • Smart GridA. Foley & B. Ó Gallachóir Modelling Impact of EVs on GHG Emissions 26 of 27

Thank You Acknowledgements – Paul Deane – Patrick Calnan – Hannah Daly – Barry Tyther – Dr. Paul Leahy – Dr. Brian Ó Gallachóir – Gemma O’Reilly – EPA – Energy Exemplar – Argonne National Energy LaboratoryA. Foley & B. Ó Gallachóir Modelling Impact of EVs on GHG Emissions 27 of 27

Modelling the impacts of electric vehicles on Greenhouse Gas emissions - Dr. Aoife Foley & Dr. Brian Ó Gallachóir

by Environmental Protection Agency - Ireland on Oct 19, 2011

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Modelling the impacts of electric vehicles on Greenhouse Gas emissions - Dr. Aoife Foley & Dr. Brian Ó Gallachóir Presentation Transcript