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Irish TIMES Energy Model - Dr. Brian Ó Gallachóir -  EPA/SEAI Future Energy Workshop June 2011
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Irish TIMES Energy Model - Dr. Brian Ó Gallachóir - EPA/SEAI Future Energy Workshop June 2011

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  • Agriculture Combustion (energy) represnt only 2% of emissions Industry (Energy) 14% Non-ETS
  • 3. Generates the car stock under different sales scenarios – this scenarios has 10% EVs and CNGVs each in the stock by 2020. TIMES can inform the sales assumptions 4. These lines represent energy demand in “cumulative” scenarios.. Each incorporates the savings of the above scenario.
  • GNP + 1.7% p.a.
  • -23.8% relative to 2005, +12.2% relative to 1990
  • 4.5 Mt reduced by reinforced actions in Energy 9.5 Mt expected reduction from AGR by 2050 (–49% relative to 2005)
  • Reduction in RSD (16.9%) and TRA (13.5%)
  • Reduction in RSD (16.9%) and TRA (13.5%)
  • Role of efficiency___80%: 40% ELC, 34% GAS, 25% RNW___95%: 78% ELC, 15% RNW
  • Role of efficiency___80%: 40% ELC, 34% GAS, 25% RNW___95%: 78% ELC, 15% RNW
  • Relatively to 2005: Almost doubled the elc use in -80%CO2 (73%), while 1,5 times in 95%CO2 (141%). Electrificarion also in REF (+40%) Relatively to REF increase Industry-RESIDENTIAL-Transport and in 95% also services
  • Relatively to 2005: Almost doubled the elc use in -80%CO2 (73%), while 1,5 times in 95%CO2 (141%). Electrificarion also in REF (+40%) Relatively to REF increase Services-RESIDENTIAL-Transport (and Industry) and in 95% also services
  • Have feedbacks on this graph and mostly on RES-T -80% RES: more than 70%; -95% RES: almost 90%
  • Discuss if is better to leave ou some of the data

Transcript

  • 1. Irish TIMES CCRP 2008 3.1 EPA Future Energy Workshop July 1 st 2011 B.P. Ó Gallachóir*, A. Chiodi*, D. Lavigne*, P. Deane*, H.E. Daly*, D. Doyle & M. Gargiulo** *Environmental Research Institute, UCC, Ireland ** e 4sma, Italy
  • 2. Overview
    • Context
    • Irish TIMES Model
    • Scenarios
      • EM2 2050 – CO2-80
      • EM3 2050 – CO2-95
      • EN1 2020 – REN16
      • EM1 2020 – NETS-20
      • EM1a 2020 – NETS-31.5
      • EM4 2050 – CO2-80 (ETS/nonETS)
    • Next Steps
  • 3. UCC Energy Policy and Modelling Dr. Brian Ó Gallachóir Principal Investigator Post-Doctoral Researchers Dr. Denis Lavigne (TIMES Energy Modelling) Dr. Ullash Kumar Rout (TIMES Energy Modelling) Aoife Foley (Modelling GHG Impacts of EVs) PhD Students Caiman Cahill (Energy Efficiency Industry) Denis Dineen (Residential Sector) Emer Dennehy (Energy Efficiency Evaluation) Fionn Rogan (Modelling Future Gas Demand) Hannah Daly (Private Car Transport) Declan Doyle (Industry in TIMES) Alessandro Chiodi (2050 Scenarios TIMES) Paul Deane (Pumped hydro in PLEXOS) MEngSc Students Liam McLaughlin (Energy Efficiency Industry) Patrick Calnan (Modelling EVs within PLEXOS)
  • 4. UCC EPMG Research Projects
    • Techno-economic bottom-up modelling of energy demand (CSM – RSM - LEAP_IE) – Funding 2009 – 2012 IRCSET €144k, BGÉ €100k, SEAI €48k
    • Optimising Ireland’s full energy system (Irish TIMES) - Funding 2009 – 2012 EPA € 429 k, IRCSET € 72k
    • Modelling electricity vehicles (CSM – PLEXOS_IE – Irish TIMES) - Funding 2009 – 2012 EPA € 319 k
    • Energy efficiency in the industry (IDA – VALDEX - SDA) – Funding 2008 – 2011 SEAI € 100k
  • 5. Context EU Proposed Pathway
  • 6. Context - Ireland EPA. Ireland’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections 2010-2020 (2010)   1990 2005 2009 unit Total Emissions 55.6 69.0 62.3 [MtCO2eq] Increase - 24.1% 12.1% 2050 Target 11.1 [MtCO2eq] Reduction -80% -84% -82%     1990 2005 2009 unit Energy-related 30.2 45.0 39.4 [MtCO2eq] Increase - 49.0% 30.5% 2050 Target 6.0 [MtCO2eq] Reduction -80% -87% -85%  
  • 7. Context – Ireland 2009
  • 8. Irish TIMES model
  • 9. The TIMES Model Generator
    • Irish TIMES uses the TIMES model generator
    • TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) is the technical economic model generator of ETSAP, an IA of the of the International Energy Agency.
    • Very similar to MARKAL but with significantly improved features and modelling capability.
    • It builds partial equilibrium linear economic models, providing a technology rich basis (bottom-up approach) for estimating energy dynamics over a long-term, multiple period time horizon.
    • Optimisation seeks to maximises the total discounted surplus, equivalent to minimizing the total discounted energy system cost in the simplest case, over the entire time horizon within environmental and technical constraints.
    • Most TIMES models are used to analyse the entire energy system of a country or a region, but may also be applied to more detailed studies of single sectors (e.g. electricity sector).
  • 10. Maximise net social surplus
  • 11. TIMES model Remme U. 2007 Overview of TIMES: Parameters, Primal Variables & Equations. Proc. ETSAP Workshop November 2007 Brazil.
  • 12. Irish TIMES model
    • Linear programming bottom-up energy model
    • Integrated model of the entire energy system
    • Prospective analysis on medium to long term horizon (20 - 50 years)
      • Demand driven (exogenous) in physical units (73 service demands
    • Partial and dynamic equilibrium (perfect market)
    • Optimal technology selection (1600 technologies)
    • Minimize the total system cost
    • Environmental constraints
    • Energy and emission permits trading
    • Price-elastic demands
  • 13. Ocean Energy Production Costs
  • 14. Car Transport Activity Costs
  • 15. Irish TIMES Scenarios
    • Jan – June 2010
      • ENI 16% RES and 10% RES-T by 2020
      • EM1 -20% in Non-ETS CO 2 2020
      • Energy service demand to 2050
    • Jul – Dec 2010
      • EM2 -80% CO 2 by 2050
      • IEA Workshop Cork November 15 2010
    • Jan – June 2011
      • EM3 -95% CO 2 by 2050
      • EM1a -31.5% CO2 by 2050
      • EM4 -80% NETS CO 2 by 2050
  • 16. EM2 -80% CO 2 by 2050
    • Is it technically feasible?
    • If so, at what cost?
    • How much does energy efficiency do?
    • What is the share of renewable energy?
    • Will there be significant electrification of transport and heat?
    • What if agriculture doesn’t deliver its share?
    • Is our short term pathway aligned?
  • 17. Reference Energy System
  • 18. Reference Energy System GNP growth +1.7% p.a.
  • 19. REF - Energy CO 2 Emissions IE-REF -23.8% below 2005 +12.2% above 1990 34 Mt
  • 20. EM2 -80% Energy CO 2 by 2050 IE-REF IE-80% 6 Mt 34 Mt
  • 21. EMX -127% Energy CO 2 by 2050 IE-REF IE-80% IE-127% -8 Mt Food Harvest 2020 Agriculture projected to 2050
  • 22. EM3 -95% Energy CO 2 by 2050 IE-REF IE-80% IE-95% 1.5 Mt ≈ -50% Expected reduction from Agriculture
  • 23. Total Final Consumption
  • 24. Total Final Consumption 2050 (compared to 2005) IE-80% = -5.7% (-0.1% p.a.) IE-95% = -9.0% (-0.2% p.a.) GNP growth +1.7% p.a.
  • 25. Residential
  • 26. Residential
  • 27. Transport
  • 28. Electrification
  • 29. Electrification
  • 30. Power Generation Portfolio
  • 31. Renewable Energy EM2 73% RES EM3 92% RES
  • 32. Marginal Cost of CO 2 Abatement EM2 -80% CO 2
  • 33. What will it Cost?
  • 34. Investment Costs / GDP
  • 35. Scenario EN1 - 2020 16% RES
    • Directive 2009/28/EC mandatory targets for Ireland
      • 16% RES by 2020
      • also 10% RES-T
    • But Ireland has national targets
      • 40% RES-E by 2020 (7.9% RES) going well
      • 10% RES-T by 2020 (3.3% RES) late starting
      • 12% RES-H (4.2% RES) no movement
      • Is this the optimal mix???
      • Scenario ENI Assess mix that gives 16% RES plus 10% RES-T and compare with national targets
  • 36. EN1 Results - RE Modal Split in 2020 RES-T 13% RES-H 20% RES-E 25%
  • 37. EM1 – 2020 EU Target
  • 38. EM1 – Ireland’s 2020 target
  • 39. EM1 – Ireland 2009
  • 40. EM1 Results – Electricity Demand
  • 41. EM1 Results – RES RES-T 16% RES-H 19% RES-E 22%
  • 42. EM1a (-31.5%) Results – Electricity
  • 43. EM1a (-31.5%) Results – RES RES-T 22% RES-H 29% RES-E 20%
  • 44. EM1a (-31.5%) Results – RES EM1 17% RES EM1a 22% RES
  • 45. EM4 -80% ETS & -80% Non-ETS
    • EU have Mandatory targets with separate ETS and Non-ETS emissions
    • What if we set separate targets for -80% GHG emissions reduction?
    • How do they affect the pathway to 2050?
    • At what cost?
  • 46. Marginal Cost of CO 2 abatement
  • 47. EM2 & EM1a - Transport
  • 48. EM2 & EM1a - Residential
  • 49. Marginal Cost of CO 2 Abatement
  • 50. What’s next?
    • Planned work for Next 6 Months
      • Model development
        • Inputs
        • Soft linking
      • Outputs
        • Peer-reviewed Journal Papers
        • Peer-reviewed Conference Papers
        • Invited Presentations
      • Final report
    • Irish TIMES Phase 2
      • Variable electricity generation – soft linking with PLEXOS
      • Interconnection and SOS – reintegrating into PET
      • Elastic demand – Irish TIMES ED
      • Including agriculture - soft linking with FAPRI and FLAGGS
  • 51. Irish TIMES CCRP 2008 3.1 EPA Future Energy Workshop July 1 st 2011 B.P. Ó Gallachóir*, A. Chiodi*, D. Lavigne*, P. Deane*, H.E. Daly*, D. Doyle & M. Gargiulo** *Environmental Research Institute, UCC, Ireland ** e 4sma, Italy