International Climate Finance; Addressing needs, meeting targets - Gemma O'Reilly EPA - EPA June 2010

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  • So why does Ireland have to worry about climate finance? All developed countries have a responsibility to take the lead and initiative on mitigation.
  • UNFCCC The additional estimated amount of investment and financial flows needed in 2030 to address climate change mitigation is large compared with the funding currently available...but small in relation to estimated global GDP (0.3-0.5%) and global investment (1.1 - 1.7%) Mitigation: $200-210bn (tech costs only est’d in 2007, 170% higher est in 2008 due to increase in capital costs) will be necessary in 2030 to reduce ems by 25% on 2000 levels. nAI: estimated at 46% or $92 – 97bn achieving 68% of the global mitigation. While investment flows in Non annex I parties are estimated at about 46% of the total needed in 2030, the emission reductions achieved by the countries amount to 68% of global emission reductions. Adaptation: UNFCCC estimate is in the 10s but could be in the 100s of billions. needs for non-Annex I parties $28-67bn by 2030. But UNDP estimated $86bn by 2015. Commission € 100bn annually by 2020 required for CC action in developing countries
  • The US  reached .2% ODA /GNI this year and Australia hopes to reach .35% ODA/GNI.  Collectively the EU member states are expected to deliver .48% ODA/GNI. Ireland registered a fall of 18.9% in ODA in 2009. For 2010, it predicts that the EU will be €11bn short of reaching its 0.56% collective target largely "as a consequence of insufficient funding by Italy, Germany and France". Ireland is reported to be on target to surpass our individual 2010 target of 0.51% (with a projection of 0.52%). Irish GDP was €182bn in 2008. That was a fall of 3% from 2007. 1% of Irish GDP in 2008 would be €1.8bn, 1.5% would be €2.7bn The report is also critical of the drifting focus of aid away from poverty reduction (particularly on the part of the newer MS in relation to military spending in Afghanistan), continuing aid inflation, tied aid, and "the whole of the Union approach". Ireland is recognised as one of only 5 Member States to have met the commitment to providing more than 0.15% GNI to LDCs - the others are Luxembourg, Denmark, Sweden and Netherlands but if Afghanistan is excluded from the calculations, Netherlands fails to reach 0.15%.
  • Where carbon has a price, the private market can finance mitigation However, adaptation, capacity building need great public support Annex 1: Emission Trading, Carbon Tax, Joint Implementation, Offsetting, Public Private Partnership, EIB, Insurance, subsidy, levy, public investment Non Annex 1: CDM, public support international public finance grant/loans, Public Private Partnership, new mechanisms?, forestry/REDD mechanism?, project/programme based?
  • Leap frogging: mobile phones have overtaken traditional telecom networks in DCs Economic stimulus provided by new investment, new technology; see IT revolution, Demand driven economies etc.

Transcript

  • 1. International Climate Finance; Addressing needs, meeting targets Gemma O’Reilly Climate Change Research Unit June 30 th , 2010
  • 2. Outline:
    • Addressing Needs
    • Estimates of need
    • Copenhagen Accord targets
    • Challenges
    • Instruments and mechanisms
    • Opportunities
  • 3. Climate Finance is about Addressing Needs
      • Ultimate goal is to avoid dangerous human induced climate change. The Copenhagen Accord interprets this as the 2 degree upper limit
      • Developing Country Adaptation
      • Developing Country Mitigation
      • Developed Country Mitigation
  • 4. People already on the brink of survival can ill afford the additional threat from climate change
  • 5. We all have common but differentiated responsibility for mitigation…
  • 6. Estimates of Needs Vary
    • UNFCCC
      • Mitigation: $200-210bn in 2030 to reduce ems by 25% on 2000 levels.
      • Mitigation (0.3-0.5%) of global GDP while global investment is (1.1 - 1.7%)
      • nAI: 46% or $92 – 97bn achieving 68% of the global mitigation.
      • Adaptation: 10s -100s of billions. non-Annex I parties $28-67bn by 2030. But UNDP estimated $86bn by 2015.
    • European Commission
      • € 100bn annually by 2020 required for CC action in developing countries
      • Includes DCs public spending, private finance and public finance from developed countries
  • 7. The Copenhagen Accord
    • Scaled up, new and additional, predictable and adequate funding as well as improved access
    • Developed countries: $30bn new and additional over 2010-2012 balanced between mitigation and adaptation
    • $100bn a year by 2020 goal, jointly mobilised, including public, private, bilateral and multilateral
    • A Copenhagen Green Climate Fund
    • A High Level Panel on sources of finance
  • 8. Mobilising Finance Presents Challenges..
    • Irish GDP fell 7.1% from 2008 to 2009*
    • Unemployment May 2008, 5.5% : May 2010, 13.7%
    • Government budget deficits and high debt levels
    • International Banking crisis etc.
    • AND...
    • Difficulties in delivering money effectively to developing countries
    • Issues over control of money; Who decides what climate finance should be spent on? Who monitors results?
    *Based on quarterly figures, CSO (2010)
  • 9. Different types of financial instruments will be required
    • UN Secretary General Advisory Group on Finance
    • “ private sector investments .. constitute the largest share of investments and financial flows (86%)
    • Official Development Assistance (ODA) funds are currently less than 1% of investment globally, but a larger share...in LDCs (6%)
    Price on Capacity?? ? Finance Price on impacts?? ? Finance Price on Carbon √ Private Finance
  • 10.  
  • 11. Opportunities exist in this transformation…
    • New substantial markets for Climate solutions!
      • New technologies needed at home and abroad
      • New management and communication solutions
      • New education requirements
    • Other benefits to be achieved..
  • 12. Technology Leap-frog! + Economic stimulus of new investment
  • 13. Other benefits…?