Presentation will focus on inventories and projections and give an overview of transport emissions in the context of total national greenhouse gas emissionsNational Atmospheric Inventory System with responsibility for compiling greenhouse gas emission inventories under the Kyoto Protocol and EU requirementsDevelopment of greenhouse gas emission projections as set out under the National Climate Change StrategyEmissions Trading Scheme in Ireland for stationary installations (SI 437 of 2004 and SI 706 of 2005)Inclusion of aviation in the EU-ETS (SI 274 2009)
Total national greenhouse gas emissions peaked in 2001, declining 3% between 2001 and 2008 and 8% between 2008 and 2009*excludes LULUCFMost recent inventory published in October 2010 for 2009 emissions
Transport emissions increased by 179% between 1990 and 2007. First decline recorded in 2008 of 0.9% and a further 7.7% decline in 2009. Decline since 2008 linked to the economic recession.*excl LULUCF
Relative share of transport emissions has increased from 9% in 1990 to 21% in 2009 while the share of agriculture emissions has declined over that period
Excludes carbon sinks and assumes all existing and planned policies and measures are implemented and deliver as anticipated.Total national emissions are projected to decrease by 7% between 2009 and 2020 under the best case scenario.Transport sector emissions projected to decrease by 8% over that period. Attributable to a reduction in freight transport and less private car travel. All other sectors projected to decline.
Under the best case scenario, it is assumed that all of these policies, which were set out in the Department of Transport’s Sustainable Travel and Transport Action Plan, will be implemented and deliver emission reductions as anticipated. Considerable uncertainty as to level of policy implementation and effectiveness of policies in reducing emissions.
Transport’s contribution to total national emissions post-Kyoto gains a greater importance as the focus moves to non-ETS sectors under the EU 2020 target. Transport is the second largest source of emissions at 29% of total non-ETS sector emissions.
National Transport Model for Ireland: Feasibility Study and Roadmap in conjunction with Department of Transport and National Transport Authority (2011) - looked at existing models and data sources in Ireland and assessed the work needed to develop a national transport model into the future. Next steps will involve extended household surveys which are to be taken forward by NTA and CSO.Barriers to Sustainable Transport in Ireland - this desk study provides an overview and prioritisation of the barriers to sustainable transport in Ireland, potential policies to address these and key information gaps. Joint funded with Department of Transport. Modelling the Impact of Electric Vehicles on Greenhouse Gas Emissions, UCC - this fellowship is developing tools and gathering information on electric vehicles and their potential impact on the electricity grid to improve projections of their effect on emissions and to improve their representation in energy models.Irish TIMES Energy Modelling - this project uses the TIMES model to assess scenarios for meeting mitigation and other targets while meeting projected energy demand. Energy demand from transport is included in the model. (joint funded with SEAI)
Under WM scenario, shown in black, emissions are projected to increase by 3% by 2020 on current levels. Assumes that no further measures, beyond those that are currently committed to, will be implemented. Under WAM scenario, shown in red, emissions are projected to decrease by 7% by 2020 on current levels. Assumes all existing and planned policies and measures are implemented and deliver as anticipated.
EPA: Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the Transport Sector - Laura Burke
EPA: Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the Transport Sector Laura Burke, Director Office of Climate, Licensing, Research and Resource Use EPA Transport Seminar October 14th 2011
Introduction EPA reports greenhouse gas emissions from all sectors of the economy including transport on an annual basis Reporting covers both historical and future emissions Allows progress to be tracked against key national targets including the Kyoto Protocol and EU 2020 targets EPA funds a range of transport-related research projects Informs development and formulation of policy
Transport policies and measures to 2020 10% renewables by 2020 including 10% Electric Vehicles VRT / Motor Tax changes Technological improvements to the private car fleet Efficient driving – ecodriving measures Mobility management - Travel Plans E-Working More sustainable public transport fleets
Distance to Kyoto Target Annual gap to Kyoto Target 1.3 - 1.6 Mtonnes Total projected gap 6.5 - 8.0 Mtonnes Total purchases to date 8.3 million credits (C&AG report 2009) Possible NESA Returns 5.0 million credits
2020 Targets – non-ETS Sectors Non-ETS Sectors The target for Ireland for non-ETS sectors is to reduce emissions by 20% Agriculture in 2020 relative to 2005 levels Transport Residential This is provisionally Industry & Commercial calculated as 37.4 Waste Mtonnes of CO2e in 2020 Annual targets between 2013 and 2020
Non-ETS emissions projections2013-2020 (without carbon sink) 50 45 40 35CO2e, Mtonnes 30 Under best case scenario, Ireland will 25 exceed its annual limit in 2016 20 15 10 5 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 WAM non-ETS Emissions Projection (without sinks) Annual Limits WAM
Sectoral share of non-ETS in 2020 Industry& Transport, 29% Commercial, 10% Residential, 13% Waste, 2% Agriculture, 46% Energy - non- CO2, 0% Energy - non-CO2 Agriculture Transport Industry& Commercial Residential Waste
EPA Climate Change Research Programme EPA climate change research is carried out under four thematic research areas: Theme 1 Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Sinks and Management Systems Theme 2 Ireland and Future Climate, Impacts and Adaptation Theme 3 Socio-Economic and Technological Climate Solutions and Transition Management Theme 4 Trans-Boundary Air Pollution / Short Life Climate Forcers Awards grant and fellowships in the thematic areas Most transport-related research in Theme 3 and Theme 4
EPA Transport-related research National Transport Model for Ireland: Feasibility Study and Roadmap in conjunction with Department of Transport and National Transport Authority (2011) Barriers to Sustainable Transport in Ireland, Trinity College Dublin (2011) Modelling the Impact of Electric Vehicles on Greenhouse Gas Emissions, UCC (2012) Irish TIMES Energy Modelling, UCC (2011)
Conclusions Transport has been the fastest growing sector in terms of greenhouse gas emissions since 1990 EPA reports greenhouse gas emissions from all sectors of the economy including transport on an annual basis Informs development of transport policy and also ensures sustainability in a broader sense EPA funds a range of transport-research projects to understand the transport sector and address key information gaps