ROADMAP 2050 A prac/cal guide to a prosperous, low-‐carbon Europe Tom Brookes NESC EPA Ireland, Dublin, November 14 2012 PROPRIETARY Any use of this material without specific permission of the European Climate Foundation is strictly prohibited
THE DECARBONIZATION PATHWAYS ANALYSED ARESUSTAINABLE, TECHNICALLY FEASIBLE, AND HAVE APOSITIVE IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY
AT LEAST 80% CO2 EMISSION REDUCTION1 Based on the McKinsey Global GHG Cost Curve2 Large efficiency improvements already included in the baseline3 CCS applied to 50% of industry (cement, chemistry, iron and steel, petroleum and gas, not applied to other industries)SOURCE: McKinsey Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve; IEA WEO 2009; US EPA; EEA; Roadmap 2050 Technical Analysis
INTER-REGIONAL TRANSMISSION REQUIREMENTS UK + UK + Ireland Ireland
AN EU APPROACH REQUIRES A THIRD LESS RESERVE CAPACITYMaximal reserve requirement1, GW Region 80% RES 60% RES UK & Ireland France Iberia Nordic Benelux & Germany Central-‐Europe Poland & Baltic South East Europe Italy & Malta Total EU27 281 191 Beneﬁt of reserve sharing Total with reserve sharing 183 125 between regions -‐35% -‐35% 8 8
CURTAILMENT IS KEPT LOW THROUGH GRID EXPANSION AND BACK-UPCAPACITY2050, GW Transmission & generation capacity requirements RES curtail-‐ Pathways DR, % Transmission Back-‐up and balancing ment1, % Baseline 0 2 Requirements on top of the baseline 80% RES 0 3 10% CCS 10% nuclear 20 2 60% RES 0 2 20% CCS 20% nuclear 20 1 9 9
Commission Work Programme 2013 The European Commission has announced a comprehensive 2030 framework for energy and climate policies: • To meet 80-95% GHG emission reduction objective in 2050 compared to 1990 • To foster long term competitiveness, security of supply and sustainability • To provide a long-term perspective for investments until 2030.