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Roadmap 2050 - A practical guide to a prosperous, low-carbon Europe
Roadmap 2050 - A practical guide to a prosperous, low-carbon Europe
Roadmap 2050 - A practical guide to a prosperous, low-carbon Europe
Roadmap 2050 - A practical guide to a prosperous, low-carbon Europe
Roadmap 2050 - A practical guide to a prosperous, low-carbon Europe
Roadmap 2050 - A practical guide to a prosperous, low-carbon Europe
Roadmap 2050 - A practical guide to a prosperous, low-carbon Europe
Roadmap 2050 - A practical guide to a prosperous, low-carbon Europe
Roadmap 2050 - A practical guide to a prosperous, low-carbon Europe
Roadmap 2050 - A practical guide to a prosperous, low-carbon Europe
Roadmap 2050 - A practical guide to a prosperous, low-carbon Europe
Roadmap 2050 - A practical guide to a prosperous, low-carbon Europe
Roadmap 2050 - A practical guide to a prosperous, low-carbon Europe
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Roadmap 2050 - A practical guide to a prosperous, low-carbon Europe

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  • 1. ROADMAP  2050  A  prac/cal  guide  to  a  prosperous,  low-­‐carbon  Europe     Tom  Brookes   NESC  EPA  Ireland,  Dublin,  November  14  2012     PROPRIETARY Any use of this material without specific permission of the European Climate Foundation is strictly prohibited
  • 2. Project Set-Up: organisations involved
  • 3. THE DECARBONIZATION PATHWAYS ANALYSED ARESUSTAINABLE, TECHNICALLY FEASIBLE, AND HAVE APOSITIVE IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY
  • 4. AT LEAST 80% CO2 EMISSION REDUCTION1 Based on the McKinsey Global GHG Cost Curve2 Large efficiency improvements already included in the baseline3 CCS applied to 50% of industry (cement, chemistry, iron and steel, petroleum and gas, not applied to other industries)SOURCE: McKinsey Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve; IEA WEO 2009; US EPA; EEA; Roadmap 2050 Technical Analysis
  • 5. ELECTRICITY DEMAND 2050(EU-27 + Norway & Switzerland)
  • 6. RES DIVERSITY CONTRIBUTES TO CONSISTENT SUPPLY
  • 7. INTER-REGIONAL TRANSMISSION REQUIREMENTS UK   +   UK   +   Ireland   Ireland  
  • 8. AN EU APPROACH REQUIRES A THIRD LESS RESERVE CAPACITYMaximal reserve requirement1, GW Region   80%  RES   60%  RES   UK  &  Ireland   France     Iberia     Nordic   Benelux  &  Germany   Central-­‐Europe   Poland  &  Baltic   South  East  Europe   Italy  &  Malta   Total  EU27   281   191   Benefit  of  reserve  sharing   Total  with  reserve  sharing     183   125   between  regions   -­‐35%   -­‐35%   8     8    
  • 9. CURTAILMENT IS KEPT LOW THROUGH GRID EXPANSION AND BACK-UPCAPACITY2050, GW Transmission  &  generation  capacity  requirements   RES  curtail-­‐ Pathways   DR,  %   Transmission   Back-­‐up  and  balancing     ment1,  %   Baseline   0   2 Requirements  on  top  of  the  baseline   80%  RES     0   3   10%  CCS   10%  nuclear   20   2   60%  RES     0   2   20%  CCS   20%  nuclear   20   1   9     9    
  • 10. ANNUAL CAPEX DEVELOPMENT
  • 11. COST OF ELECTRICITY
  • 12. Summing Up
  • 13. Commission Work Programme 2013 The European Commission has announced a comprehensive 2030 framework for energy and climate policies: •  To meet 80-95% GHG emission reduction objective in 2050 compared to 1990 •  To foster long term competitiveness, security of supply and sustainability •  To provide a long-term perspective for investments until 2030.

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