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Climate Change Impacts And Adaptation - Science Meets Policy - Dr Margaret Desmond, EPA - EPA CC Conference June 2010
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Climate Change Impacts And Adaptation - Science Meets Policy - Dr Margaret Desmond, EPA - EPA CC Conference June 2010 Climate Change Impacts And Adaptation - Science Meets Policy - Dr Margaret Desmond, EPA - EPA CC Conference June 2010 Presentation Transcript

  • CLIMATE CHANGEwww.epa.ie Research Programme
  • Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Science Meets Policy Dr Margaret Desmond Climate Change Research Programme 30 June 2010 Environmental Protection Agency Dublin
  • Context  Climate change is happening which creates different environmental conditions to which we must adapt  Changed conditions will be challenging for normal governance and planning systems  New element of uncertainty introduced into decision making for medium to long term development  A key element for decision making is the provision and availability of information and data  The challenge is to match scientific findings with policy, planning and decision making needs
  • Presentation outline  „Boundary‟ role between science, policy and society  Framework approach  Research for policy support: „A summary of the State of Knowledge‟  Developing a climate change information system  Informing future adaptation actions
  • „Boundary‟ role between science, policy and society  Across Europe specialised organisations facilitate interactions between science and policy to support strategy and implementation  „Boundary‟ role between science, policy and society  Policy support  National Adaptation Framework  Inform actions at sectoral and local levels  Reports: „State of Knowledge‟  Provision for future climate change information needs  Climate change information system
  • Framework approach for scientifically informed decision making Ref: Iosard, 2010
  • Climate change information support
  • Potential Impacts
  • Adaptive Capacity Assessment
  • A Summary of the State of Knowledge on Climate Change Impacts for Ireland  Summary of state of knowledge on climate change and expected impacts  For policy makers, planners, sectoral decision makers  Information based on work by number of providers:  Met Eireann, NUIM, IPCC, sectoral  Information on key meteorological parameters
  • Data base to climate change information system....  Database  EPA SAFER SYSTEM http://erc.epa.ie/adaptation/science.php
  • Next steps: Climate Change Information System  Facilitate the collection and dissemination of scientific information:  Projections and observations;  Data and case studies about climate change impacts and vulnerability;  Adaptation policies and measures;  Costs and benefits of adaptation  Assist in the effective uptake of knowledge by regional, local or sectoral decision makers,  Contribute to a greater level of co-ordination at sectoral and institutional levels.
  • Conclusion; informing future adaptation actions  Framework approach to adaptation decision making is working  A lot of scientific research has been done  Research continues  Information has been synthesised and is available  Next steps: further dissemination of information to support adaptation actions across sectoral and local level planning  Provision for Climate Change Information System  The „match‟ between science and policy will continue to be a key issue for adaptation planning and decision making
  • CLIMATE CHANGEwww.epa.ie Research Programme
  • Climate Modelling for Ireland Ray McGrath, Met Éireann EPA Climate Change Conference, 30 June 2010, Aviva Stadium, Dublin
  • Outline  Brief history of climate modelling in Met Éireann.  Move from Regional to Global modelling  Current modelling work and future plans.
  • History  Met Éireann monitors the Irish climate – maintains a network of observing stations.  Climate & Observations Division analyses historical data and regularly issues reports on case studies, trends in the climate, etc.  Involved in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) for many decades – models used to produce our operational weather forecasts.  Climate modelling, in spite of synergy with NWP, arrived late…
  • History  Community Climate Change Consortium for Ireland (C4I) project launched in 2003.  Externally funded (EPA, SEAI, HEA/CosmoGrid) the joint Met Éireann /UCD project focused on Regional Climate Modelling.  Finished in 2007.  Provided future scenarios (changes in mean climate, extremes, flooding, waves, storm surge).
  • History Impact of C4I project  Climate modelling/research became a core activity for Met Éireann - National Climate Change Strategy (2007-2012).  Partner in ENSEMBLES project (2004-2009).  EPA Fellowships (2007- ): weather extremes (analysis of Irish precipitation); new coupled atmosphere/ocean Regional Climate Model developed; air quality modelling.
  • EU ENSEMBLES Project – European Climate (2004 – 2009) ENSEMBLES : EU FP6-funded project involving 66 institutes (including Met Éireann) from 20 countries. Goal: Run ensembles of different climate models to sample uncertainties Assess reliability of models for historical periods Working towards a probabilistic framework for projections of climate change Focus: season, decadal, centennial; global, regional and local. Applications of societal relevance ENSEMBLES has produced ~25 regional climate simulation datasets for Europe; also 7 Average number of days per month with ground frost (1961-1990) global simulations.
  • EU ENSEMBLES Project – European Climate (Sep 2004 – Dec 2009) C4I contribution: 2 centennial simulations over Europe
  • EU ENSEMBLES Project – European Climate (Sep 2004 – Dec 2009) Source: van der Linden P., and J.F.B. Mitchell (eds.) 2009: ENEMBLES: Climate Change and its Impacts: Summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project.
  • EU ENSEMBLES Project: local applications Flood or drought? Change in river Suck discharge: 2021-2060 relative to 1961-2000. Based on 13 ENSEMBLES simulations.
  • ENSEMBLES/C4I: expected change (%) in seasonal rainfall 2021-2050 compared with 1961-1990 (mean of 20 climate model simulations) Winter Spring Summer Autum n But large spread between the simulations… too much uncertainty
  • ENSEMBLES/C4I RCM simulations have highlighted the uncertainty in precipitation forecasts. Example: expected winter change (%) 2021-2050 20 compared with 1961-1990 12 member member ensemble ensemble Spread reflects model differences. GHG emission uncertainty is not included (same in all simulations) .
  • ENSEMBLES: expected change (%) in seasonal rainfall 2071-2100 compared with 1961-1990 (mean of 12 climate model simulations) Winter Spring Summer Autum n
  • Lessons learned from C4I/ENSEMBLES  Regional climate modelling introduces additional uncertainty – errors in GCMs compounded with errors in RCM models.  Local model cannot “correct” fundamental GCM errors.  Logistical difficulties in accessing GCM outputs (at required spatial/temporal resolution) for downscaling Solution: move to a GCM  Still need RCM for local downscaling – not (yet!) feasible to run GCM at sufficient resolution to model local effects.  Running own GCM provides autonomy/flexibility in designing experiments.
  • Climate modelling in Met Éireann: moving to the global scale In 2007 Met Éireann /ICHEC / UCD became partners in EC- Earth, a consortium of European Weather Services and Institutes (~23 in total) established to develop and use a common global Earth System Model: atmosphere, ocean/sea- ice, land, atmospheric chemistry, Carbon cycle – unified within a single package. EC-Earth modelling work will feed into the next IPCC Assessment Report
  • Background to EC-Earth • Consortium influenced by concept of „seamless prediction‟ in operational weather forecasting - same physical principles (but different processes acting on different scales) for weather and climate. • merging of capability in short-range, seasonal and climate (decadal/centennial) forecasting areas i.e. single system. System based on the ECMWF seasonal prediction system – strong synergy with operational forecasting system in Met Éireann
  • Atmosphere GCM: IFS Land: IFS H-tessel Vegetation: LPJ OASIS Atmospheric Chemistry Ocean GCM: NEMO and aerosols: TM5 Sea-ice:LIM2/3 Marine ecosystem: PISCES Joint EC-Earth and ECMWF seasonal forecast components For CMIP5: T159L62, 1 deg Ocean New EC-Earth components On 6 platforms Planned EC-Earth components
  • Timeline Testing/tuning –> Spin-up runs –> CMIP5 runs An ensemble of simulations planned – distributed among partners 2100 2005 1850 Test phase ~900 yrs Historical RCP run runs Pre-industrial Spin-up + 2 independent simulations by Initialized Met Éireann / ICHEC and Decadal hindcasts DMI/KNMI.
  • CMIP5 - Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Outputs from EC-Earth (~50 terabytes of core data) will be delivered to CMPI5 for assessment by IPCC CMIP is a standard experimental protocol for studying the output of coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (GCMs)… in support of climate model diagnosis, validation, intercomparison, documentation and data access. The purpose… is to address outstanding scientific questions that arose as part of the IPCC/AR4 … and to provide estimates of future climate change.
  • CMIP5 - Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 “Near-Term” (decadal) CMIP5 Goals: prediction & • Evaluate realism of the models. predictability CORE • Provide projections of future climate (initialized ocean state) change on two time scales, “near term” (out to about 2035) and “long TIER 1 term” (out to 2100+) “Long-Term” (century & longer, 2100/2300) • Understand some of the factors responsible for differences in model projections, including quantifying “realistic” COR some key feedbacks such as those E diagnostic involving clouds and the carbon TIER 1 cycle. TIER 2
  • CMIP5 - Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 CMIP5 Schedule: July 2010: First model output is expected to be available for analysis. July 31, 2012: By this date papers must be submitted for publication to be eligible for assessment by WG1. March 15, 2013: By this date papers cited by WG1 must be published or accepted. The IPCC‟s AR5 is scheduled to be published in September 2013.
  • Irish partner ICHEC: Designated Earth System Grid ‘Data Node’ through e-INIS(the Irish National e- Infrastructure) ICHEC PCMDI - Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison BADC - British Atmospheric Data Centre ICHEC – Irish Centre for High-End Computing
  • Met Éireann / ICHEC schedule of EC-Earth simulations: CMIP5 Commitment • 900 year spin-up of coupled atmosphere/ocean model (pre- Industrial GHG) ~ completed. Provides different launch points (700, 725… 825 years) for Industrial run (1850-2005) with prescribed GHG and aerosols for EC-Earth partners. • Future runs (2006-2100): 3 x simulations with prescribed GHG and aerosols. • Decadal simulations (atmosphere only with initialised ocean): 10/30-year simulations from 1960, 1965,…2005 launch points. 30-year simulations from 1960, 1980, 2005 launch points.
  • Met Éireann / ICHEC schedule of EC-Earth simulations for local use • High-resolution decadal simulations (atmosphere only) from initialised ocean analysis: 1990-2010 2010-2030 Target horizontal resolution ~25km with either 1° or 0.25° ocean (depending on computer resources). How Ireland/UK elevations “appear” on the 25km global EC-Earth grid
  • EC-Earth spin-up event: change in the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) after ~500 years and recovery SST Anomaly during MOC decrease Cold spell lasted ~50 years, lagged MOC decline by ~20 years… An unforced event simulated by the model (no influx of fresh water into the N. Atlantic, etc.)
  • EC-Earth spin-up event: changes in the average SST (anomalies) over the Atlantic 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 10 yr avg -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Relative year SST oscillations ~40 year cycle – similar to observed Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Cold dip an echo of 8.2kyr event in Holocene?
  • Central Greenland reconstructed temperature 8.2kyr event linked with drainage of glacial lake into N. Atlantic… but may be simply „natural variability‟ as seen in EC-Earth simulation 8.2kyr cold event Data source: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/alley2000/alley2000.htm
  • Regional models not neglected: coupled atmosphere-ocean regional climate model (RCA_NEMO) developed System evaluated by simulating climate over the above area 1961-1990 and comparing against ERA-40 reanalysis data.
  • Coupled atmosphere-ocean regional climate model First step in building an integrated system to complement the EC-EARTH GCM Will upgrade to next generation Harmonie atmospheric model (non-hydrostatic model): •HARMONIE will be implemented for operational forecasting in Met Éireann in 2010. • Model has strong synergy with ECMWF IFS model (e.g. common physics modules with EC-EARTH). • Feedback between operational (day-to-day) regional forecasting and climate modelling will enhance development.
  • EC-Earth used to investigate • Impact of declining Arctic sea ice cover on climate • Dynamical impact of declining Greenland ice sheet (reduced to bedrock). • Sensitivity of atmospheric „blocking‟ to model horizontal resolution Greenland 5 km DEM, Ice Thickness, and Bedrock Elevation Grids
  • Future Plans EC-Earth outputs (particularly the decadal simulations) will be used to investigate changes in weather extremes e.g. rainfall. Selected outputs downscaled to 2-5km grid. Outputs will be freely Empirical Orthogonal available to drive Function (EOF) analysis of applications to study local annual Irish rainfall (1941- impacts of climate change 2009). The time evolution of (flooding, storm surge, the Principle Component for coastal erosion, renewable the first mode is shown with a energy – wind/wave, 5-year running trend line. agriculture, forestry,… Where is the climate heading?
  • Acknowledgements Tido Semmler (Met Éireann) Emily Gleeson (Met Éireann) Alastair McKinstry (ICHEC) Shiyu Wang (ICHEC/Met Éireann– EPA Fellowship) Seamus Walsh (Met Éireann)
  • CLIMATE CHANGEwww.epa.ie Research Programme Dublin, 30th June 2010. Building Capacity for Adaptation to Climate Change at the Local Level in the Coastal Zone
  • Extreme Events & Climatic Shifts Paul Leahy, Eileen Reilly, Bettina Stefanini, Francis Ludlow, Michael Monk, Jason Harris, Gerard Kiely Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University College Cork EPA Climate Change Conference Lansdowne Road, Dublin 30th June 2010 Extreme Events | Climate Change Conference 48
  • Outline 1. Historical documentary sources Gaelic Annals of Ireland 2. Proxy sources Tree rings, ice cores, peat strata 3. Modern, instrumental records Met Éireann & other stations Extreme Events | Climate Change Conference 49
  • Why extremes matter Extreme weather events can have adverse effects on people, infrastructure, ecosystems, and agriculture. These effects can long outlive the Lyrecrompane, Co. Kerry, August duration of the events which caused 2008. them. An extreme event such as a drought or a heavy rainfall can be defined in terms of the local long-term distribution of the parameter of interest. Cork City, November 2009. Extreme Events | Climate Change Conference 50
  • Historical anomalies • Droughts in Middle Ages – 1252. A drought in summer such that "folk used to cross the Shannon dry-shod" (Annals of Connacht) – Corrib recorded as dried up on several occasions – Liffey dried up Extreme Events | Climate Change Conference 51
  • Historical extremes of cold • Occurrence over time of recorded phenomena in the Gaelic Irish Annals from which low temperatures may be inferred Extreme Events | Climate Change Conference 52
  • Proxies : hydrological variability • Widespread wet periods can be identified from multiple proxies including: – 2500-2350 BC, – 1500-1000 BC – 900-500 BC – 300-900 AD, particularly around 550 AD. Extreme Events | Climate Change Conference 53
  • Modern instrumental record • From c. 1794 Armagh • Met Éireann 13 synoptic stations – Digitised data • Hourly rainfall • Hourly air temperatures • evaporation • ... • OPW/EPA river flows – Good spatial cover – Not all digitised Extreme Events | Climate Change Conference 54
  • Recent changes in annual rainfall • Change observed in 2000 Annual precipitation and 10 yr moving average at Valentia. Annuual Precip mid-1970s 1900 10 Yr Mov. Avg. 1800 • Upward trend 1700 (but not Rainfall depth [mm] 1600 1500 statistically 1400 significant) 1300 since 1950s 1200 1100 1000 900 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Years Extreme Events | Climate Change Conference 55
  • Rainfall: seasonal change • Valentia average monthly rainfalls Extreme Events | Climate Change Conference 56
  • Rainfall: seasonal change 1975+ % change pre-1975 to post-1975 in total rainfall amounts: Extreme Events | Climate Change Conference 57
  • Rainfall: extremes •Valentia, Dublin Airport, Kilkenny: storm events (≥ 5h) with a 10 year return period in the post-1975 record are almost as large as 30-year storms pre-1975 Extreme Events | Climate Change Conference 58
  • Temperature extremes in 20th century • During the late 20th century, statistically significant increasing trends in the annual 99th percentile of daily Tmin observed. Trends in Tmax less evident. Annual 99th percentile daily minimum & maximum air temperature at four locations Extreme Events | Climate Change Conference 60
  • Causes? • Climate Change • North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) • Icelandic low pressure & Azores highs • poleward shift of Atlantic storm tracks. • Natural variability? Extreme Events | Climate Change Conference 61
  • Changing patterns of extremes: results & implications  Assumptions of stationarity may no longer hold  Engineering design : changing return periods  Suitability of existing infrastructure?  Water resources : higher % of rain delivered in March and October and in extreme events  Flood risk and enhanced sediment transport?  Seasonal low and high flows  Narrowing of daily temperature range is evident  Implications for energy demand (heating/cooling) and ecosystem functioning Extreme Events | Climate Change Conference 62
  • • Thank you • Questions? • http://www.hydromet.org/ Extreme Events | Climate Change Conference 63
  • CLIMATE CHANGEwww.epa.ie Research Programme
  • Building Capacity for Adaptation to Climate Change at the Local Level in the Coastal Zone EPA Climate Conference, Dublin, 30th June 2010 Valerie Cummins Director, MERC3
  • EPA Climate Change Conference Acknowledgements J. Gault, C. O Mahony, M. Falaleeva, S. Gray, A. O Hagan, W. Lynn, M. Desmond, T. Shine, O Sulleabhain, Lynch, O Donovan PhD supervisor Prof. R.J. Devoy Dublin, 30th June 2010. Building Capacity for Adaptation to Climate Change at the Local Level in the Coastal Zone
  • EPA Climate Change Conference Structure 1. Concept and principles of adaptation 2. Building capacity for local level adaptation Imcore project approach Expert Couplet Node in Cork Harbour Transitioning to Adaptive Strategies 3. Lessons learned to date Dublin, 30th June 2010. Building Capacity for Adaptation to Climate Change at the Local Level in the Coastal Zone
  • 1. Concepts and Principles of Adaptation
  • EPA Climate Change Conference Why Adapt? We always have…. Dublin, 30th June 2010. Courtesy of Prof Robert Devoy, UCC Building Capacity for Adaptation to Climate Change at the Local Level in the Coastal Zone
  • EPA Climate Change Conference  Mitigation – implementing policies to reduce GHG emissions and enhance sinks (IPCC, 2007)  Adaptation - Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. (IPCC, 2007). Dublin, 30th June 2010. Building Capacity for Adaptation to Climate Change at the Local Level in the Coastal Zone
  • EPA Climate Change Conference Principles of adaptation  Work in partnership  Cope with uncertainty  System vulnerability and resilience  Manage climate and non climate risk  Iterative approach  Focus on actions  Low-no regrets / win-win approach  Avoid mal-adaptation  Multiple scales of governance After: Berry 2009; UKCIP, 2009; Adger et al., 2008;Willows & Connell, 2003 Dublin, 30th June 2010. Building Capacity for Adaptation to Climate Change at the Local Level in the Coastal Zone
  • EPA Climate Change Conference Policy Drivers: Dublin, 30th June 2010. Building Capacity for Adaptation to Climate Change at the Local Level in the Coastal Zone
  • EPA Climate Change Conference Climate Change in the coastal zone Vulnerability – effects of climate change will be severe on coasts and marine ecosystems (e.g. risk of coastal erosion, biodiversity loss) Impacts on sectors e.g. fisheries & aquaculture New challenges – e.g. Marine Renewable Energy Governance – Need to build capacity for Adaptation Need for Marine Spatial Planning and ICZM Dublin, 30th June 2010. Building Capacity for Adaptation to Climate Change at the Local Level in the Coastal Zone
  • 2. Local Level Adaptation
  • EPA Climate Change Conference IMCORE Methodology Nine coastal case studies across NW Europe Building Adaptive Capacity via transnational collaboration &boundary organisations Boundary organisations „Social organisations or collectives that sit in two different worlds such as science & policy, can be accessed equally by members of each world without loosing identity‟ Dublin, 30th June 2010. Forsyth, 2003:141 Building Capacity for Adaptation to Climate Change at the Local Level in the Coastal Zone
  • EPA Climate Change Conference Local Level Issues 1. Complex picture of vulnerability and adaptivecapacity 2. Lack of awareness of need to adapt 3. Lack of expertise in Local Authorities (coastal zone and climate adaptation). Need for policy, tools and guidelines to mainstream adaptation 4. Slow pace of institutional learning 5. Need for adequate resourcing Dublin, 30th June 2010. Building Capacity for Adaptation to Climate Change at the Local Level in the Coastal Zone
  • EPA Climate Change Conference Cork Harbour – Expert Couplet Node Development of the Cork Harbour Management Strategy 2004-2008 Framework to progress the local adaptation strategy is firmly established Dublin, 30th June 2010. Building Capacity for Adaptation to Climate Change at the Local Level in the Coastal Zone
  • EPA Climate Change Conference Cork Harbour: Review of trends Flooding Projections indicate increased risk of flooding; linked to precipitation patterns, storm patterns, and sea level rise. Sea Temperature 0.85°C rise in Irish coastal seas since 1950; 2007 warmest year in Irish coastal record. Sea Level Rise During the satellite era SLR of 3.5cm per decade has been observed. Projected rise of 60cm to 2100. Sea Chemistry Atlantic waters freshened from 1960-1990 and are now becoming more saline. Extreme Weather Observed decrease in the frequency of storms, but the intensity of storms has increased. Waves & Surges Evidence of significant increase in wave heights (up to 30cm) during winter months. Precipitation Drier summers in the south east.Winter rainfall in Ireland by the 2050s is projected to increase by approximately 10% while reductions in summer of 12–17% are projected by the same time. By the 2080s, winter rainfall will have increased by 11–17% and summer rainfall will have reduced by 14– 25%. Temperature Mean annual temperatures in Ireland have risen by 0.7°C over the past century. Recent research suggests mean temperatures in Ireland relative to the 1961–1990 averages are likely to rise by 1.4–1.8°C by the 2050s and by in excess of 2°C by the end of the century. Water run-off Climate change will result in greater variability in flow rates. Dublin, 30th June 2010. Building Capacity for Adaptation to Climate Change at the Local Level in the Coastal Zone
  • EPA Climate Change Conference Cork Harbour: Issues Workshop Sectors Considered Tourism & Recreation Energy Built Heritage Coastal Defence Biodiversity Port and Shipping Agriculture Settlement and Land-use Human Health Transport Industry and Commerce Fisheries Note: ESE (Ecological, Social & Economic Impacts) were identified Dublin, 30th June 2010. Building Capacity for Adaptation to Climate Change at the Local Level in the Coastal Zone
  • EPA Climate Change Conference Cork Harbour – Scenario Building & Visualisation for Flood Risk Management Exploratory scenarios workshop - PESTLE framework; certainty & significance Visualisation tools for coastal flooding Dublin, 30th June 2010. Building Capacity for Adaptation to Climate Change at the Local Level in the Coastal Zone
  • Economic vision Long term, holistic development EPA Climate Change Conference • Existing flood management efforts maintained • Flood prevention measures undertaken pre- • Legal instruments meet minimum emptively, investment high (i.e. ICM, barrage) requirements of EC directives • Legal instruments designed to enforce and where • Planning policy formulated in favour of long necessary enhance EC directives (Floods, WFD, term investment (i.e. zoning of floodplain for MSP) affordable housing), decisions rarely re-visited • Long term adaptive planning • Technologies employed to enhance Lee River • Technologies employed to minimise human impact hydropower in estuarine floodplain (flexible housing) • Public opinion favours investments addressing • Public opinion favours minimising risk of known issues over potential hazards of climate societal/environmental losses in the face of change climate change Attitude Mainstream Outright rejection to climate acceptance science • Flood defence spending falls as local authority • Flood management measures undertaken finances are cut retrospectively, future heavily discounted, NIMTO • Fines are accepted as inevitable approach to adaptation policy • Planning policy formulated in an ad-hoc • Legal instruments meet minimum requirements of manner EC directives, cost of fines balanced against costs • Technologies employed to limit influence of of compliance, natural change in estuarine floodplain (hard • Planning policy at odds with economic imperatives defences) • Technological fixes heavily relied on, but imperfect • Public opinion favours exploitation of coastal at best and estuarine environments for real estate and • Public opinion favours risk-based adaptation, leisure development compensation rather than prevention the norm Short term, profit oriented Dublin, 30th June 2010. growth Building Capacity for Adaptation to Climate Change at the Local Level in the Coastal Zone
  • EPA Climate Change Conference Cork Harbour: Next steps in Building Adaptive Capacity  Transitioning towards Local Adaptation Strategies  E.g. Stakeholder validation meetings. Identification of „preferred scenario‟  Participatory development of „preferred scenario‟ into a normative scenario (including backcasting & wind tunnelling)  Planned Project Outputs  * 9 Coastal Adaptation Action Plans  Guidelines for Local Authorities  Training of Trainers & Distance Learning Tool Dublin, 30th June 2010. Building Capacity for Adaptation to Climate Change at the Local Level in the Coastal Zone
  • 4. Lessons to date
  • EPA Climate Change Conference Lessons to Date 1. Role of bridging organisations at local level (awareness, expertise, resources) 2. Need to mainstream adaptation across Local Authority organisational structures 3. Governance research is essential 4. Multidisciplinary challenge 5. Scenario building & visualisation potentially powerful tools for decision making 6. BAC takes time! Dublin, 30th June 2010. Building Capacity for Adaptation to Climate Change at the Local Level in the Coastal Zone
  • “Whatever there be of progress in life comes not through adaptation but through daring” Henry Miller Contact: v.cummins@merc3.ie
  • CLIMATE CHANGEwww.epa.ie Research Programme Dublin, 30th June 2010. Building Capacity for Adaptation to Climate Change at the Local Level in the Coastal Zone
  • CLIMATE CHANGEwww.epa.ie Research Programme