Climate Change Mitigation   the Energy Dimension Brian P. Ó Gallachóir EPA CCRP Conference 2010  June 30 2010 Principal In...
Overview <ul><li>Climate Change  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>What and why? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The energy dimension </li>...
Overview <ul><li>Climate Change  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>What and why? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The energy dimension </li>...
Observations of Climate Change   Global mean temperature  (+0.74 °  1990 - 2005 ) Global average sea level Northern hemisp...
Drivers of Climate Change <ul><li>The understanding of  anthropogenic   warming and cooling   influences on climate  has i...
Greenhouse Gas Concentrations Energy
Human Activities Ireland
Global GHG Emissions 2005 Ireland  66.8%  (2008) EU-27  77.8%  (2006)
Climate Change Projections <ul><li>Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise would  continue for centuries  due to the time...
Response Timeframes
Response Challenge 2 °C 3 °C 4 °C
Overview <ul><li>Climate Change  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>What and why? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The energy dimension </li>...
Response Insufficient
EU Proposed Mitigation Path
Mitigation – Energy Dimension
Mitigation – Energy Opportunity
Overview <ul><li>Climate Change  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>What and why? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The energy dimension </li>...
Economy, Energy & CO 2   53% CO 2  increase on 1990
Emissions in Ireland 2008 <ul><li>Total GHG emissions: 67.4 Mt CO2e </li></ul><ul><li>Agriculture: 26% (large impact) </li...
ETS vs Non-ETS <ul><li>Total GHG emissions: 67.4 Mt CO2e </li></ul><ul><li>Agriculture: 26% (large impact) </li></ul><ul><...
2020 Targets <ul><li>EU GHG Targets  </li></ul><ul><li>EU Mandatory Target for Ireland  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Decision 406...
National Forecasts (WP+)
National Forecasts (WP+)
20% Non-ETS Scenario <ul><li>Ireland to meet 20% reduction in non-ETS emissions by 2020 </li></ul><ul><li>National energy ...
Irish TIMES (2009 - 2011)  <ul><li>Develop an energy systems model for Ireland </li></ul><ul><li>Build scenarios to inform...
Irish TIMES 2010 Programme <ul><li>Jan – June 2010 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>ENI  16% RES and 10% RES-T by 2020   </li></ul></...
TIMES model Remme U. 2007  Overview of TIMES: Parameters, Primal Variables & Equations.  Proc. ETSAP Workshop November  20...
Irish TIMES model <ul><li>Linear programming bottom-up energy model  </li></ul><ul><li>Integrated model of the entire ener...
IT Reference Scenario
IT-NETS Scenario Total CO 2
IT-NETS Scenario NETS CO 2
IT-NETS Scenario Residential 13% RE 46% EL 24% EL
IT-NETS Scenario Transport 15% RE
IT-NETS Scenario Services 16% RE 9% RE
IT-NETS Scenario Elec Gen
IT-NETS Scenario Renewables >10-fold increase 40% Wind 32% Biom 25% Biof
Energy opportunities Ireland
Conclusion <ul><li>Energy core to climate change mitigation </li></ul><ul><li>Energy technologies can half emissions by 20...
Conclusions
Climate Change Mitigation   the Energy Dimension Brian P. Ó Gallachóir EPA CCRP Conference 2010  June 30 2010 Principal In...
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Mitigation - The Energy Dimension - Dr B. O'Gallachoir - EPA CC June 2010

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Mitigation - The Energy Dimension - Dr B. O'Gallachoir - EPA CC June 2010

  1. 1. Climate Change Mitigation the Energy Dimension Brian P. Ó Gallachóir EPA CCRP Conference 2010 June 30 2010 Principal Investigator, Energy Policy and Modelling, Environmental Research Institute, University College Cork
  2. 2. Overview <ul><li>Climate Change </li></ul><ul><ul><li>What and why? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The energy dimension </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Mitigation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Not on course for 2 °C </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The energy dimension </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Ireland </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Targets 2020 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Irish TIMES Energy Systems Model </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>(Preliminary) Scenario Results for 2020 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Conclusion </li></ul>
  3. 3. Overview <ul><li>Climate Change </li></ul><ul><ul><li>What and why? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The energy dimension </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Mitigation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Not on course for 2 °C </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The energy dimension </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Ireland </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Targets 2020 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Irish TIMES </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Scenario Results for 2020 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Conclusion </li></ul>
  4. 4. Observations of Climate Change Global mean temperature (+0.74 ° 1990 - 2005 ) Global average sea level Northern hemisphere Snow cover
  5. 5. Drivers of Climate Change <ul><li>The understanding of anthropogenic warming and cooling influences on climate has improved, leading to very high confidence that the globally averaged net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming , with radiative forcing of +1.6 W m -2 . </li></ul>
  6. 6. Greenhouse Gas Concentrations Energy
  7. 7. Human Activities Ireland
  8. 8. Global GHG Emissions 2005 Ireland 66.8% (2008) EU-27 77.8% (2006)
  9. 9. Climate Change Projections <ul><li>Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise would continue for centuries due to the timescales associated with climate processes and feedbacks, even if greenhouse gas concentrations were to be stabilized . </li></ul><ul><li>Temperatures in excess of 1.9 to 4.6°C warmer than pre-industrial sustained for millennia </li></ul><ul><li>eventual melt of the Greenland ice sheet. Would raise sea level by 7 m. Comparable to 125,000 years ago. </li></ul>
  10. 10. Response Timeframes
  11. 11. Response Challenge 2 °C 3 °C 4 °C
  12. 12. Overview <ul><li>Climate Change </li></ul><ul><ul><li>What and why? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The energy dimension </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Mitigation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Not on course for 2 °C </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The energy dimension </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Ireland </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Targets 2020 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Irish TIMES </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Scenario Results for 2020 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Conclusion </li></ul>
  13. 13. Response Insufficient
  14. 14. EU Proposed Mitigation Path
  15. 15. Mitigation – Energy Dimension
  16. 16. Mitigation – Energy Opportunity
  17. 17. Overview <ul><li>Climate Change </li></ul><ul><ul><li>What and why? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The energy dimension </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Mitigation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Not on course for 2 °C </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The energy dimension </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Ireland </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Targets 2020 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Irish TIMES </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Scenario Results for 2020 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Conclusion </li></ul>
  18. 18. Economy, Energy & CO 2 53% CO 2 increase on 1990
  19. 19. Emissions in Ireland 2008 <ul><li>Total GHG emissions: 67.4 Mt CO2e </li></ul><ul><li>Agriculture: 26% (large impact) </li></ul><ul><li>Energy: 68% </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Power gen + refining 22% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Transport 21% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Buildings 17 % </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Industry 8% </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Process Emissions (Industry): 4% </li></ul><ul><li>Waste: 2% </li></ul>
  20. 20. ETS vs Non-ETS <ul><li>Total GHG emissions: 67.4 Mt CO2e </li></ul><ul><li>Agriculture: 26% (large impact) </li></ul><ul><li>Energy: 68% </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Power gen + refining 22% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Transport 21% </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Buildings 17 % </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Industry 8% </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Process Emissions (Industry): 4% </li></ul><ul><li>Waste: 2% </li></ul>65% Non-ETS 35% ETS
  21. 21. 2020 Targets <ul><li>EU GHG Targets </li></ul><ul><li>EU Mandatory Target for Ireland </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Decision 406/2009/EC </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Non-ETS GHG 20% less than 2005 by 2020 </li></ul></ul>GHG 20% below 1990 by 2020 ETS GHG 21% below 2005 by 2020 Non-ETS GHG 10% below 2005 by 2020 = +
  22. 22. National Forecasts (WP+)
  23. 23. National Forecasts (WP+)
  24. 24. 20% Non-ETS Scenario <ul><li>Ireland to meet 20% reduction in non-ETS emissions by 2020 </li></ul><ul><li>National energy targets deliver a 1% growth in (energy-related) non-ETS emissions in 2020 </li></ul><ul><li>What energy system will deliver a least cost 20% reduction in (energy-related) non-ETS emissions? </li></ul><ul><li>Will there be significant electrification of transport and heat? </li></ul>
  25. 25. Irish TIMES (2009 - 2011) <ul><li>Develop an energy systems model for Ireland </li></ul><ul><li>Build scenarios to inform energy & environmental policy </li></ul><ul><li>Provide insights into technology options </li></ul><ul><li>Draw on tools being used in ~70 countries </li></ul><ul><li>Irish TIMES Modelling team (4) @ UCC </li></ul><ul><li>R Tol (ESRI) providing service demand projections </li></ul><ul><li>M Gargiulo (e4sma) providing training and support </li></ul><ul><li>A Kanudia (KanORS) linking Irish TIMES with PET-IE </li></ul>
  26. 26. Irish TIMES 2010 Programme <ul><li>Jan – June 2010 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>ENI 16% RES and 10% RES-T by 2020 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>EM1 20% decrease in Non-ETS GHG 2020 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Energy service demand to 2050 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Jul – Dec 2010 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>EM2 GHG 80% decrease by 2050 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>EN2 Energy Security in 2050 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>IEA Workshop Cork November 15 – 17 2010 </li></ul></ul>
  27. 27. TIMES model Remme U. 2007 Overview of TIMES: Parameters, Primal Variables & Equations. Proc. ETSAP Workshop November 2007 Brazil.
  28. 28. Irish TIMES model <ul><li>Linear programming bottom-up energy model </li></ul><ul><li>Integrated model of the entire energy system </li></ul><ul><li>Prospective analysis on medium to long term horizon (20 - 50 years) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Demand driven (exogenous) in physical units </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Partial and dynamic equilibrium (perfect market) </li></ul><ul><li>Optimal technology selection </li></ul><ul><li>Minimize the total system cost </li></ul><ul><li>Environmental constraints </li></ul><ul><li>Energy and emission permits trading </li></ul><ul><li>Price-elastic demands </li></ul>
  29. 29. IT Reference Scenario
  30. 30. IT-NETS Scenario Total CO 2
  31. 31. IT-NETS Scenario NETS CO 2
  32. 32. IT-NETS Scenario Residential 13% RE 46% EL 24% EL
  33. 33. IT-NETS Scenario Transport 15% RE
  34. 34. IT-NETS Scenario Services 16% RE 9% RE
  35. 35. IT-NETS Scenario Elec Gen
  36. 36. IT-NETS Scenario Renewables >10-fold increase 40% Wind 32% Biom 25% Biof
  37. 37. Energy opportunities Ireland
  38. 38. Conclusion <ul><li>Energy core to climate change mitigation </li></ul><ul><li>Energy technologies can half emissions by 2050 </li></ul><ul><li>We are not on track to meet 2 ° C limit </li></ul><ul><li>Irish TIMES model can inform policy </li></ul><ul><li>Preliminary IT-NETS scenario delivers 20% non-ETS emissions reduction by 2020 </li></ul><ul><li>Most CO 2 savings occur in transport and residential </li></ul><ul><li>24% RES achieved (Target 16%) </li></ul><ul><li>15% RES-T largely from biodiesel </li></ul><ul><li>Some switching from non-ETS to ETS through electrification in residential sector </li></ul>
  39. 39. Conclusions
  40. 40. Climate Change Mitigation the Energy Dimension Brian P. Ó Gallachóir EPA CCRP Conference 2010 June 30 2010 Principal Investigator, Energy Policy and Modelling, Environmental Research Institute, University College Cork

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