Empowering Communities: Making climate change local and exploring alternative future visions

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This presentation shows how visualising the impacts of climate change on local communities, along with visual depictions of adaptation or mitigation, can be a very useful to drive local engagement in vulnerable areas. Presentation by Stephen R. J. Sheppard
PhD., ASLA.
Collaborative for Advanced Landscape Planning, UBC, Vancouver, Canada

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Empowering Communities: Making climate change local and exploring alternative future visions

  1. 1. EMPOWERING COMMUNITIES: Making climate change local and exploring alternative future visions Stephen R. J. Sheppard PhD., ASLA. Collaborative for Advanced Landscape Planning, UBC, Vancouver, Canada Communicating Climate Change: Visualization workshop, Bedruthan, Cornwall 21 May 2014 D. Flanders, CALP
  2. 2. Empowering Communities: Outline 1.  More effective community engagement: –  Making climate change local with simple visual learning tools (eg. photo-albums, community mapping) 2.  Better planning processes: –  Exploring alternative future visions: embedding landscape visualization within participatory processes 3.  Resources for scaling-up and replicating/ adapting such methods
  3. 3. Crisis? Source: InTouch Magazine, 14 August 2006 Which crisis?
  4. 4. Principles for communicating climate change •  Make it local (or regional) •  Make it visual (compelling) •  Make it holistic (connecting the dots on climate change)
  5. 5. Question: How many of you have seen climate change?
  6. 6. Coastal flooding in West Vancouver, 2013 Photograph by: Mark van Manen, Vancouver Sun
  7. 7. Subtle impacts in local landscapes… Taylor  &  Francis Not  for  distribution they are consistent with expected climate change trends. Often, only foresters and park managers recognize the long-term aftermath in the local landscape. These events (such as record snowfalls or rainstorms) are still relatively rare in many communities in temperate regions, and it is hard for people to detect their increasing frequency without good, clear information. Impact Window 3 Historical evidence and gradual shifts in temperate regions Fading memories of once-common conditions, and creeping changes. (a) Backyard ice-rinks: a tradition for children growing up in eastern Canada that is becoming a thing of the past in this hockey- obsessed nation. Will Canadians see a fall-off in interest in the sport or just more (b) ‘Early spring’ in my mother’s garden in Witney, England: are the early blossoms on the almond tree and clematis a delight or a foreshadowing of worse to come? Source: S. Sheppard, 2012
  8. 8. Climate Change Components Causes “Carbon consciousness” Impacts “Damage report” Mitigation solutions “Dealing with the causes” (GHGs) Adaptation solutions “Dealing with the effects”
  9. 9. Seeing the world through a holistic climate change lens
  10. 10. BC Community Energy and Emissions Inventory (CEEI) • Natural gas • Gasoline West Vancouver CEEI data
  11. 11. What goes around comes around?
  12. 12. Photo-album documenting local causes of climate change Taylor  &  Francis Not  for  distribution PART II Knowing, seeing and acting Carbon Window 3 Fossil fuels in the neighbourhood (I): burning carbon in our homes and backyards (a) Large or low-efficiency homes consume high quantities of natural gas, oil, coal or electricity from fossil fuels for heating or cooling. Chimneys may be the only externally visible carbon indicator. (b) Gas meters: many buildings have them, explicitly recording how much carbon we are burning and releasing, but they are hard to read, located in less visible locations outside the home, and often deliberately screened from public view. (c) High carbon businesses in Merida, Mexico, with air-conditioners in poorly insulated office buildings and on-street employee parking. (d) Natural gas fireplaces are designed to be viewed inside the home and to mimic an attractive, carbon-neutral wood fire. In truth, ‘natural’ gas in this context is really
  13. 13. Local Mitigation Solutions Not  for  dis 188 Townsfolk can see where their power comes from. (c) View from a train in eastern Germany: rural communities living cheek by jowl with co-owned wind farms that contribute to the local economy. (d) Photo credits: S. Sheppard
  14. 14. Local Adaptation Solutions Taylor  &  Francis Not  for  distribution CHAPTER 8 Seeing adaptation solutions Adaptation Window 4 Measures for managing water hazards in one area The MetroVancouver region of Canada: wet and wild. (a) Sea-walls have been built to protect homes along Boundary Bay, BC, but higher walls to guard against faster sea-level rise have been opposed by some residents because they will block cherished beach views. (b) Major stream channel reconstruction has become necessary on steep Northshore creeks to reduce bank erosion, channel scouring and debris flows (rock-laden torrents). Photo credits: S. Sheppard
  15. 15. Making energy visible with thermal imaging Eagle Island neighbourhood retrofit •  29/30 homes have done energy audits & thermal imaging •  Most have done energy upgrades, reduced carbon emissions •  Fuelled by dinners, wine, and fun ! Sources: PICS White Paper on thermal imaging and community-led social mobilization (Cote et al., in press); UK TI research: Goodhew et al., 2010 Taylor  &   Retrofitexistingcommunity Eagle Island, West Vancouver, Canada, 2009 E al d re e Gussing, Austria, 1996 A o N Photos: S. Sheppard
  16. 16. DIY visualization Credit: Andrew MacFarland and Damion Dorn, West Vancouver Secondary School
  17. 17. NEIGHBOURHOOD TOOLKIT: Mapping climate change on your block Purpose: engaging neighbours with community mapping of local climate change indicators – Carbon (high or low?; mitigation potential?) – Vulnerability to climate change (high or low?; adaptation potential?)
  18. 18. Green Areas Credit: Mayara Benedetti
  19. 19. MOST POSSIBLE FLOODED AREAS SECONDARY FLOODED AREAS Vulnerability—easily flooded areas Nanjing Forestry University students Group 6, November 2013
  20. 20. Empowering Communities: Outline 1.  More effective community engagement: –  Making climate change local with hands-on visual learning tools 2.  Better planning processes: –  Exploring alternative future visions: embedding landscape visualization within structured participatory processes
  21. 21. Graphs and numbers aren’t enough Delta: 1.2m of sea level rise projected by 2100 (BC Sea Dike Guidelines, 2011)
  22. 22. We need ‘defensible drama’: visually compelling, science-based time-travel in familiar places Ladner Dike View D. Flanders, CALP
  23. 23. Build Up Scenario D. Flanders, CALP
  24. 24. Goal: develop and test a new engagement/planning process: •  best available data, expert & local knowledge: co-production •  spatial analysis/GIS & hybrid modelling •  experiential ‘landscape visualization’ to tap emotions & sense of place •  evaluation of the effect of the process on knowledge, opinions, motivations & policy Local Climate Change Visioning Process Localize, spatialize and visualize climate change
  25. 25. Average  April  1st  Snowline  Snowpack example Canadian  Global  Climate  Model  2:  A2  scenario   Data: Environment Canada; Visualization: D. Flanders, CALP
  26. 26. Components of Visioning Process 1.  Participation 2.  Scenario Building 3.  Data / Modeling Integration 4.  3D and 4D Visualizations
  27. 27. Visioning Process Iteration of components through phases with a local working group.
  28. 28. GHG Scenarios (CO2-equiv, millions of tonnes) ( 2 8 -­‐ 0 1-­‐ 0 7) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 A 2  /  F ortress World B 2  /  Policy R eform B 1-­‐450  /  Great Transitions GB-QUEST Modelling/ Tellus regional scenarios for Metro Vancouver (Carmichael) Visualizing future pathways (alternative land use plans and lifestyles) Visualisation: D. Flanders, CALP
  29. 29. •  2D maps/comm- unity mapping •  Info-graphics •  3D landscape visualizations, video, animations Various visual learning tools Proof Taylor  &  Francis Not  for  distribution 297 change … when you combine easy-to-use mapping technology with the global reach of the internet.12 This approach taps local knowledge in communities by giving people a simple, structured way to locate and describe changes in their landscape that may be due to climate change (Figure 10.7), though information quality may be very variable unless more systematic methods (as proposed here) or scientific verification are used. It could also be extended to map causes and solutions for climate change. Figure 10.7 Data points with annotations on observed local climate change impacts, entered by contributors around the world using a Google Maps interface developed by the Landscape Values and PPGIS Institute; this example is from Washington State M10_Visualizing Climate Change_P03C10.indd 297 05/12/2011 09:08:50 Data: Natural Resources Canada; Visualization: J. Danahy, U. of Toronto N. Miller, CALP Greg Brown,
  30. 30. How does Climate Change Visioning work in practice? •  With a regional socio-economic model and climate change projections: –  North Vancouver, BC: suburban hillside community –  Delta, BC: coastal floodplain community •  With simple GIS mapping & Google Earth in an official adaptation plan: –  Kimberley, BC: rural forest-dependent community
  31. 31. Current Mean April 1st Snowline (759m)2020s World 1 (A2) Mean April 1st Snowline (789m)2050s World 1 (A2) Mean April 1st Snowline (920m)2090s World 1 (A2) Mean April 1st Snowline (1074m) NORTH VANCOUVER D. Flanders, CALP
  32. 32. NORTH VANCOUVER J. Laurenz, CALP
  33. 33. Local food market Live / work development 60% reduction in home energy consumption Mul4family   suites   Community   gardening   Electric   commuter   vehicles   Smaller,  efficient   cars   Increased  public   transit   Stormwater   drainage  swale   Passive  solar   conservatory   NORTH VANCOUVER J. Laurenz, CALP
  34. 34. Coastal Neighbourhoods Holistic Landscape Planning for Climate Change DNV Presentation December 15, 2008 Flanders/Pond Existing Condition2100: Storm surge (3.48m) 2100: Wall Adaptation2100: Dike Adaptation2100: Retrofitting largely complete 2050: Complete resilient floating neighbourhood DELTA D. Flanders, CALP
  35. 35. Change in Perceptions of Urgency: •  Before: 23% of practitioners felt that the impacts of climate change are serious now •  After: 46% felt that way When impacts of climate change will become serious (Metro Van Practitioners; Before) 0 20 40 60 80 100 Never 100 years from now 50 years from now 20 years from now It is serious now %Respondents When impacts of climate change will become serious (Metro Van Practitioners; After) 0 20 40 60 80 100 Never 100 years from now 50 years from now 20 years from now It is serious now %Respondents
  36. 36. Impacts of Local Climate Change Visioning Process? •  Increased understanding of local impacts and solutions •  Increased willingness (65-69%) to support local mitigation/adaptation measures Delta 2007 public workshops with survey: Longterm impacts on decision- making (interviews 4 years later): •  Local government staff more willing to consider radical solutions to climate change •  Northshore climate hazards study / detailed Delta adaptation scenario assessment •  Widespread use of visual images in the community
  37. 37. Participant comments on the process (South Delta community): •  "I learned how climate change could affect my community in a very graphic way. Numbers may not stay with me but visuals will” •  "I was somewhat aware of global warming impacts on the Maldives and polar ice caps - this presentation placed my own community in that context” •  “Felt empowered”
  38. 38. Kimberley: User evaluation of visualization helpfulness Over 30 adaptation measures adopted in the final Plan Kimberley public meeting Respondents n=38, valid n=38 Mean: 4.370, Standard Deviation 1.051 O. Schroth, C. Miller, CALP
  39. 39. Empowering Communities: Outline 1.  More effective community engagement: –  Making climate change local with hands-on visual learning tools 2.  Better planning processes: –  Exploring alternative future visions: embedding time travel through landscape visualization within participatory processes 3.  Resources for scaling-up & replicating such processes
  40. 40. Resources:     Earthscan/Routledge book www.visualizingclimatechange.ca Delta RAC website: http://www.delta-adaptation-bc.ca Visualization Training Modules: http://www.delta-adaptation-bc.ca/category/training-modules/ www.calp.forestry.ubc.ca/publications Visioning Guidance Manual (Pond et al, 2010)
  41. 41. Guidelines  for  ethical  &  effec;ve  use  of  visual   media on  climate  change •  Clarity  -­‐  vivid,  easily  seen  and  understood   •  Credibility  -­‐  honest,  balanced,  verifiable   •  Engagement  -­‐  interes4ng  and  accessible     •  Connec4vity  -­‐  relevant,  personal,  integrated   •  Feasibility  -­‐  prac4cal,  cost-­‐effec4ve,  replicable   See  also  more  detailed  Visualiza4on  Code  of  Ethics  
  42. 42. •  Vivid, personally meaningful visual imagery: –  grabs attention, resonates, can accelerate learning & action –  can be a grassroots DIY tool •  Moral imperative to use visuals more systematically: –  training and capacity-building for increased application in practice •  Professional imperative to do it right: –  adopt ethical principles –  embed in structured, participatory decision-making processes Implications for visualizing our futures with climate change www.calp.forestry.ubc.ca
  43. 43. Future Delta 2.0 educational climate change videogame http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ollOh5xRz3M UBCO CCT Team
  44. 44. Respondents n=38, valid n=36 Mean: 2.190, Standard Deviation 1.305 User evaluation of interactive Google Earth usage in Kimberley public meeting Fire-spread mapping: Bob Grey Consulting
  45. 45. Generic Neighbourhood: The Sandbox, by land use

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