Task 2: EN TRIPS Future Conditions final report jun 2011

1,045 views

Published on

Published in: Technology, Real Estate
0 Comments
1 Like
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Views
Total views
1,045
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
14
Comments
0
Likes
1
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Task 2: EN TRIPS Future Conditions final report jun 2011

  1. 1. Eastern Neighborhoods Transportation Implementation Planning StudyFUTURE CONDITIONS
  2. 2. This project is funded in part through the Metropolitan Transportation Commissions Station Area Planning Program. The preparation of this report has been financed in part by grants from the U.S.Department of Transportation. The contents of this report do not necessarily reflect the official views or policy of the US. Department of Transportation.
  3. 3. Table of ContentsExecutive Summary ............................................................................................................................................... ES-1  Land Use Change and Travel Demand Growth ................................................................................................ ES-3  Summary of Transportation Conditions ............................................................................................................. ES-5  Summary of Transportation Needs and Opportunities .................................................................................... ES-13 Chapter 1.  Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 1-1  Existing Issues for the Eastern Neighborhoods Transportation System ............................................................ 1-4 Chapter 2.  Projected Population and Employment Growth .............................................................................. 2-1  Recent Changes in Land Use Regulation ........................................................................................................... 2-1  Projected Employment and Population Growth................................................................................................... 2-8 Chapter 3.  Projected Travel Demand ................................................................................................................... 3-1 Chapter 4.  Circulation and Operational Needs Analysis ................................................................................... 4-1  Travel Demand by Mode of Transportation ......................................................................................................... 4-1  Motor Vehicle Circulation .................................................................................................................................... 4-4  South of Market Area and 16th Street Circulation Analysis ............................................................................. 4-11  Transit Operations............................................................................................................................................. 4-21  Pedestrian Network ........................................................................................................................................... 4-41  Bicycle Network ................................................................................................................................................ 4-62 Chapter 5.  Summary of Findings ......................................................................................................................... 5-1  Land use change and travel demand growth ...................................................................................................... 5-1  Transportation Needs and Opportunities ............................................................................................................ 5-2 Chapter 6.  Next Steps and Project Development Process ................................................................................ 6-1 Appendix A Travel Demand Forecasting and Post-Processing ApproachAppendix B Turning Movement DiagramsAppendix C Pass-through Trips Methodology i
  4. 4. EASTERN NEIGHBORHOODS TRANSPORTATION IMPLEMENTATION PLANNING STUDYFuture ConditionsTable of FiguresFigure ES-1  EN TRIPS Study Area .......................................................................................................................... 2 Figure ES-2  Areas with High Projected Population and Employment Growth (2005 - 2035)................................... 4 Figure ES-3  Projected Vehicle Volumes by Street Segment, PM Period (3 PM – 6:30 PM) .................................... 6 Figure ES-4   Line Load by Segment in Key Transit Corridors ................................................................................... 8 Figure ES-5  Eastern Neighborhoods Pedestrian Collisions Hot-Spots and Projected Land Use Change.............. 10 Figure ES-6  Existing and Planned Bicycle Network ............................................................................................... 12 Figure 1-1  EN TRIPS Study Area ....................................................................................................................... 1-3 Figure 2-1  EN TRIPS Study Area Land Use Planning Districts .......................................................................... 2-2 Figure 2-2  Eastern South of Market Generalized Zoning Districts ...................................................................... 2-4 Figure 2-3  Mission District Generalized Zoning Districts .................................................................................... 2-5 Figure 2-4  Showplace Square/Potrero Hill Generalized Zoning Districts ............................................................ 2-6 Figure 2-5  Central Waterfront Generalized Zoning Districts ............................................................................... 2-7 Figure 2-6  Projected Population Growth by District, 2005 - 2035 ..................................................................... 2-10 Figure 2-7  Projected Increase in Population Density, 2005 – 2035 .................................................................. 2-11 Figure 2-8  Projected Employment Growth by District, 2005 - 2035 .................................................................. 2-13 Figure 2-9  Projected Increases in Employment Density (2005 - 2035) ............................................................ 2-14 Figure 2-10  Areas with High Projected Population and Employment Growth (2005 - 2035).............................. 2-16 Figure 2-11  Total Projected Employment Density and Population Density (2035) ............................................. 2-17 Figure 2-12  Proposed Residential, Commercial, and Mixed-Use Development for Eastern Neighborhoods .... 2-19 Figure 3-1  TAZ Groupings for Origin-Destination Analysis ................................................................................. 3-2 Figure 3-2  Projected Increase in Travel Demand ............................................................................................... 3-4 Figure 3-3  Projected Increase in PM Peak Period Travel Demand..................................................................... 3-4 Figure 3-4  Growth in Eastern Neighborhoods Origin Trips by Destination ......................................................... 3-6 Figure 3-5  Growth in Eastern Neighborhoods Origin Trips by Destination, PM Peak Period.............................. 3-6 Figure 3-6  Projected Increase in Travel Demand – South of Market Origin........................................................ 3-7 Figure 3-7  Projected Increase in Travel Demand – Mission District Origin ......................................................... 3-8 Figure 3-8  Projected Increase in Travel Demand – Potrero Hill/Showplace Square Origin ................................ 3-9 Figure 3-9  Projected Increase in Travel Demand – Central Waterfront/Mission Bay Origin ............................. 3-10 Figure 4-1  Overall Volumes and Mode Share (All Daily Trips)............................................................................ 4-1 Figure 4-2  Mode Share by Neighborhood (All Daily Trips) ................................................................................. 4-2 Figure 4-3  SF-CHAMP 4.1 Base Network Model Assumptions .......................................................................... 4-3 Figure 4-4  Projected Change in Vehicle Volumes by Street Segment, PM Period (3 PM – 6:30 PM) ................ 4-6 Figure 4-5  Projected Total Vehicle Volumes by Street Segment, PM Period (3 PM – 6:30 PM) ........................ 4-7 Figure 4-6  SFMTA Recommended Truck Routes ............................................................................................... 4-9 Figure 4-7  Projected Truck Volumes by Street Segment, Daily ........................................................................ 4-10 Figure 4-8  Circulation Study Intersections ........................................................................................................ 4-12 Figure 4-9  Projected Growth in Vehicle Volumes: PM Peak Hour (North-South Corridors) .............................. 4-14 Figure 4-10  Projected Growth in Vehicle Volumes: PM Peak Hour (East-West Corridors)................................. 4-15 Figure 4-11  PM Peak Hour Intersection LOS Distribution ................................................................................... 4-16  ii
  5. 5. Figure 4-12  Projected PM Peak Hour Intersection LOS ..................................................................................... 4-17 Figure 4-13  Change in PM Period Vehicle Trips in the South of Market Area (2005 – 2035) ............................ 4-18 Figure 4-14  TEP-Proposed Primary Transit Network ......................................................................................... 4-23 Figure 4-15  Areas with ¼ Mile of TEP-Proposed Primary Transit Network ........................................................ 4-24 Figure 4-16  Projected Increase in Transit Demand, Daily .................................................................................. 4-26 Figure 4-17  Projected Increase in Transit Demand, PM Peak ........................................................................... 4-26 Figure 4-18  Projected Increase in South of Market Area Origin Transit Trips by Destination, Daily .................. 4-28 Figure 4-19  Projected Increase in Central Waterfront Area Origin Transit Trips by Destination, Daily .............. 4-30 Figure 4-20  Projected Increase in Showplace Square/Potero Hill Origin Transit Trips by Destination, Daily ..... 4-31 Figure 4-21  Projected Increase in Mission District Origin Transit Trips by Destination, Daily ............................ 4-32 Figure 4-22  Projected PM Period Transit Ridership Volume by Segment, 2035 ................................................ 4-33 Figure 4-23  Projected Line Load by Segment in Key Transit Corridors, 2035 ................................................... 4-34 Figure 4-24  Capacity of Muni Vehicles ............................................................................................................... 4-35 Figure 4-25  South of Market and 16th Street Transit Network and 2035 Projected LOS for Motor Vehicles ..... 4-39 Figure 4-26  Eastern Neighborhoods Pedestrian Collisions Hot-spots and Projected Land Use Change........... 4-42 Figure 4-27  Pedestrian Injury Collisions per Mile by Street Segment, SOMA East-West Arterials (2004-2008) .................................................................................................................................... 4-44 Figure 4-28  Pedestrian Injury Collisions per Mile by Street Segment, SOMA North-South Arterials (2004-2008) .................................................................................................................................... 4-44 Figure 4-29  Key Existing Pedestrian Attractors and Projected Densities ........................................................... 4-46 Figure 4-30  Non-motorized Trips with Origins in the Eastern Neighborhoods by Destination ............................ 4-47 Figure 4-31  Daily Non-Motorized Trips with South of Market Origins, 2035 ....................................................... 4-48 Figure 4-32  Closed Crosswalks and Multiple Turn Lanes in the South of Market Area...................................... 4-51 Figure 4-33  Daily non-motorized trips with Mission District Origins, 2035.......................................................... 4-52 Figure 4-34  Mission Streetscape Plan Proposed Design Framework ................................................................ 4-54 Figure 4-35  Daily Non-Motorized Trips with Central Waterfront/Mission Bay Origins, 2035 .............................. 4-57 Figure 4-36  Mission Bay Pedestrian and Open Space Plan............................................................................... 4-59 Figure 4-37  Pier 70 Draft Preferred Master Plan Street Grid and Open Space proposal ................................... 4-60 Figure 4-38  Existing and Planned Bicycle Network ............................................................................................ 4-63 Figure 4-39  Non-motorized Trips with Origins in the Eastern Neighborhoods by Destination ............................ 4-64 Figure 4-40  Bicycle Network and PM Peak LOS (2035) .................................................................................... 4-68 Figure 4-41  Combined Eastern Neighborhoods Transportation Networks ......................................................... 4-71 Figure 6-1  EN TRIPS Project Development Workflow Diagram ......................................................................... 6-2 Figure C-1  Origin/Destination Trip Type Summary ............................................................................................. C-2  iii
  6. 6. Executive SummaryThis report presents the Future Conditions projections for the Eastern NeighborhoodsTransportation Implementation Planning Study (EN TRIPS). EN TRIPS will develop transportationinfrastructure improvements to serve the existing and projected needs of San Francisco’s EasternNeighborhoods, as envisioned by the Eastern Neighborhoods Area Plans, which were adopted bythe San Francisco Board of Supervisors in 2009. The study area of EN TRIPS includes not onlythe Eastern Neighborhoods themselves (the Mission District, Eastern South of Market, PotreroHill/Showplace Square, and the Central Waterfront), but also surrounding planning districts(Mission Bay, the Transbay District, and Western South of Market) that share key transportationcorridors with the Eastern Neighborhoods.As the second major work product for EN TRIPS, this Future Conditions Report provides anassessment of the likely impacts of growth and change over the next 20 years on thetransportation system in the Eastern Neighborhoods. It assesses potential changes in land usepatterns and travel behavior and draws conclusions about the impact on the transportationsystem in light of the key existing issues and opportunities already documented. The horizon yearfor the purposes of identifying future needs is 2035, when the land use changes envisioned forthe Eastern Neighborhoods and surrounding planning districts may be fully realized. While futureconditions cannot be known with certainty, this report relies on the best tools available to presentpotential transportation system conditions in that future horizon year. Based on these projections,this report presents an assessment of the major transportation corridors in the study area foreach mode of transportation, and for the system as a whole.It is important to note that the travel demand projections described in this report are uncertain andare not pre-determined. New infrastructure investment and/or changes in City policy couldinfluence the number of new vehicle trips, help to reduce congestion, or lessen the impact ofincreased vehicle volumes on other modes of transportationFollowing publication of this report, in collaboration with community stakeholders, the EN TRIPSproject team will then recommend, design, and develop implementation plans for prioritytransportation improvements. It should be noted that the current recession has slowed projectedgrowth in the Eastern Neighborhoods and it is not clear that 2035 represents a “build out” targetfor development in the study area. However, by using 2035 as the build out year, it is possible toproject future needs assuming full development in the Eastern Neighborhoods along with robustdevelopment in other areas of the city that will contribute to transportation issues within the studyarea. ES-1
  7. 7. Figure ES-1 EN TRIPS Study Area EN TRIPS BART & Muni Station ge id (Embarcadero) Br y KE AR NY ST Ba ST OC KT ON Eastern Neighborhoods Transportation Implementation CA LIF OR NI A ST SP 80 EA ST R Planning Study Area ST BE AL E Transbay ST BART & Muni Station Terminal (Montgomery) RINCON I VD GE AR Y BL 2N D HILL ST 3R D VA N NE SS ST ST EMB ARC ADE RO BART & Muni Station (Powell) N IO 1S 4T SS T H MI ST ST AV E 5T H ST EAST ST ST ON K ET IS SOMA R AR ST AR 6T H M D H AR ST ST W NT BART & Muni Station HO YA ST BR D ST (Civic Center) OM EN S NS F OL TO W OC TA VIA S A CHINA 8T BL VD H Caltrain Station BAS IN ST ST (4th & King) N 9T FE LL ST Muni Station N NA H ST (Van Ness Ave.) AN ST BR WEST SOMA KI NG L E F R A 11 N TH N A 10 ST H ST C TH Y K ST E RR E BE R C N IO S IS 7T M N C I S C O H MISSION ST 101 DIVIS ION ST BAY* SHOWPLACE * Mission Bay street grid under construction. 14TH ST ALAM EDA ST SQUARE Estimated completion date is 2013. 15TH ST 15TH ST 16TH ST 16TH ST 3RD ST BART Station 17TH ST MISS OU RI ST ARKA NSAS ST DE HARO ST (16th & Mission) B A Y MARIP OSA ST ILLINO IS ST PENN SYLV ANIA ST 18TH ST 18TH ST MISSION 101 19TH ST 20TH ST IND IANA ST POTRE RO AVE KANS AS ST BRYAN T ST 280 HARRI SON ST SOUT H VAN NESS AVE FOLSO M ST 20TH ST MISSIO N ST 22ND ST VALEN CIA ST GU ERRER O ST DO LORES ST CHURC H ST Caltrain Station CENTRAL POTRERO (22nd Street) WATERFRONT HILL 23RD ST 23RD ST 24TH ST 25TH ST BART Station (24th & Mission) 26TH ST 25TH ST CHAVE Z ST CESAR 26TH ST CESAR CHAVEZ ST ISLAIS CREEK CHANNEL0 Miles 1 EN TRIPS Study Area: Existing Transit Service: Future Transportation Projects: Eastern Neighborhoods Muni Bus Lines Central Subway Key Neighboring Areas Muni Metro & Streetcar CA High Speed Rail Van Ness Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) BART E-Line Historic Streetcar CalTrain ES-2
  8. 8. Land Use Change and Travel Demand GrowthA number of planning efforts have recently changed zoning in the study area, permitting newbusinesses and households that might not otherwise have located in San Francisco. The EasternNeighborhoods Area Plans (including the Eastern South of Market District, the Mission District,Showplace Square/Potrero Hill, and the Central Waterfront), adopted in 2009, made zoningchanges to some but not all of the EN TRIPS study area. In addition, several major land usedevelopment plans for areas within the study area (but separate from the Eastern Neighborhoodsland use plans themselves) will result in growth. These include the Western South of Marketcommunity planning area, the Transbay Transit Center District, the Mission Bay RedevelopmentArea, and Rincon Hill. This section summarizes recent changes in land use regulation andprojected changes in population and employment in the study area by 2035. Population andemployment projections are based on the allocations from the Association of Bay AreaGovernments (ABAG), and are modified by the San Francisco Planning Department to reflect theCity’s best current understanding of expected land use change.As a result of land use regulation changes and overall regional growth, very largeincreases in population, employment, and total travel demand are projected for theEastern Neighborhoods study area by 2035. The study area’s population is expected toincrease by about a third, and employment is projected to increase by nearly half. As a result ofthis growth, the model predicts an additional 320,000 daily trips to and from the EasternNeighborhoods by 2035, an increase of about 70 percent over the 2005 level.The majority of population, employment, and travel demand growth is expected to occur in theSouth of Market area. The model projects that demand for travel to and from the South of Marketarea will roughly double. Within the South of Market, important new areas of growth include thefollowing: the easternmost portions of the South of Market, including the Transbay District; themid-market area, adjacent to Market Street between Seventh and Fifth street; the western end ofthe South of Market area, particularly the area west of Seventh Street between Market andHarrison; and the area along Bryant, Brannan, and Townsend streets, between I-80 and theCaltrain tracks. As a result of this growth, the South of Market area will see travel demandincrease within the neighborhood, between the South of Market and downtown, and between theSouth of Market and each of the Eastern Neighborhoods Areas.While the South of Market area will see the majority of population growth, several areas ofgrowth are projected in the rest of the study area. The largest center of new population isMission Bay, which is projected to add 25,000 jobs. Large increases in employment density arealso projected along the Waterfront south of Mission Bay, with the Central Waterfrontneighborhood plan area contributing 15,000 new jobs. Extending west from Mission Bay alongthe 16th Street corridor, employment growth is also foreseen in the southern part of ShowplaceSquare and in the northern portion of the Mission District. With much smaller changes to existingland use patterns expected, the model projects that the Mission District will have modest growthin trips. Showplace Square/Potrero Hill Districts will have small but still substantial increases intravel demand.As a result of this growth, travel by all modes of transportation will expand. The modelprojects that mode share will remain mostly consistent between 2005 and 2035, with just a 3percent shift from private motor vehicles to transit. It is important to note that the modelprojections described in this report are uncertain and are not pre-determined. New infrastructureinvestment and/or changes in City policy could influence the number of new vehicle trips, help toreduce congestion, or lessen the impact of increased vehicle volumes on other modes oftransportation. One consequence of expanded travel may be large increases in motor vehiclevolumes on arterials throughout the study area. Vehicle drivers will face some delays, and buses,cyclists, and pedestrians will also have to contend with growing vehicle traffic. ES-3

×