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Presentation for Transforming Transportation Inter-American Development Bank January 15, 2010 Lee Schipper, Ph.D. Project ...
<ul><li>Presentation in Two Parts </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The Glasses: Framing the CO2 problem as a transport problem </li><...
WORLD CARBON EMISSIONS: TRANSPORT The Latin American Share Is Small CO2 a Symptom of Latin America’s Transport Problems
CO2 Emissions: Is Latin America Different? Total, Per Capita, or Per GDP <ul><li>Low in Total CO2 – Per Capita or Per GDP ...
Road Transport Emissions  Relative to GDP? Falling Only Very Slowly in Latin America * 1990 figure includes many non-trans...
Light Duty Vehicle Ownership and Income Latin America is High for Its Income – the Link to CO2
Light Duty Vehicles Dominate Urban Streets and CO2 Emissions <ul><li>Global Estimate for All of Latin America </li></ul><u...
CO2 Emissions from Road Transport in MCMA –  The Urban Share by Vehicle Type *Source: This study based on SMP/WBCSD and IE...
CO2 Emissions from Road Transport in MCMA –  Similar Patterns for Bogota, Santiago, S Paulo * *Source: MCMA Bottom-up Emis...
The Future for Transport and Emissions  as LDV Dominance Grows <ul><li>WBCSD Projections: “Sustainable Mobility Project” (...
Future Latin America  Passenger Road Transport CO2 Driving Force is LDV Ownership and Use (Source WBCSD  Sustainable Mobil...
Bus Rapid Transit – Mexico’s  1 st  Metrobus Line 260,000 people/day over 19km for US $80mn Lower emissions, CO2, reduced ...
Metrobus as a Case Study in Co-Benefits How to Save CO2 Without Even Trying   <ul><li>The INE Cost Benefit Analysis –  </l...
Metrobus CO2 Changes by Component CO2 Savings (10% of Corridor Emissions) as Cobenefit were  FREE Source Rogers 2006, 2009
Benefits from Metrobus: Broad Than Just CO2 Transport, Health Benefits >> CO2 Benefits Source Schipper et al 2009; INE 2006
What Trends and Projections Say About The Future Treat C02 as a Transport Problem <ul><li>Reducing CO2 Intensity of Travel...
Transport and CO2 in Latin America in 2050: The View from Scenarios <ul><li>Projections (WBCSD, IEA even MEDEC): Lots More...
“ ASIF” Decomposition:  Road Map For Scenario Building Lesson: Attack all Problems of Transport Not Just Technological Eff...
Transport and CO2 in Latin America Two Approaches <ul><li>Backcasting from ITPS Goals (Our Team Only) </li></ul><ul><ul><l...
Transport and CO2 in Latin America in 2050 Why Scenarios? <ul><li>Globalization –  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Universal concern...
Three Modes Dominate Emissions Cars, Flying, Trucking <ul><li>Cars, Trucks, Air   </li></ul><ul><ul><li>WBCSD Estimates fo...
 
De-Carbing Transport in Latin America  AS – Activity and Mode Shares  <ul><li>A void Carbon Intensive Development (is it t...
De-Carbing Transport in L. America  IF – Fuel Intensity and Carbon Content <ul><li>Vehicles </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Shrinkin...
Travel and Carbon Intensity Assumptions Pie in the Sky or Realistic
Scenarios Results for Latin America With A Real Effort, Latin America Will Have Lower Emissions Tomorrow
Key Messages: Saving CO2 in Latin America <ul><li>Transport Matters A Lot for CO2; CO2 Matters Little for Transport </li><...
TECHNOLOGY LEAPFROGGING  Gracias Lee Schipper –   schipper@berkeley.edu
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Visioning Scenarios for Transport and CO2 For Latin America in 2050: You Can’t See the Future Unless You Have the Right Glasses

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By Lee Schipper. Presented on Day Two of Transforming Transportation. Washington, D.C. January 15, 2010.

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  • Transcript of "Visioning Scenarios for Transport and CO2 For Latin America in 2050: You Can’t See the Future Unless You Have the Right Glasses"

    1. 2. Presentation for Transforming Transportation Inter-American Development Bank January 15, 2010 Lee Schipper, Ph.D. Project Scientist, Global Metropolitan Studies, UC Berkeley Senior Research Engineer, Precourt energy Efficiency Center, Stanford * Opinions strictly those of Dr Schipper. Analysis work funded by the World Bank; Scenario work funded by the Institute for Transportation Policy Studies, Japan Visioning Scenarios for Transport and CO2 For Latin America in 2050: You Can’t See the Future Unless You Have the Right Glasses
    2. 3. <ul><li>Presentation in Two Parts </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The Glasses: Framing the CO2 problem as a transport problem </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The Vision: Seeing a different transportation future for L. America </li></ul></ul>
    3. 4. WORLD CARBON EMISSIONS: TRANSPORT The Latin American Share Is Small CO2 a Symptom of Latin America’s Transport Problems
    4. 5. CO2 Emissions: Is Latin America Different? Total, Per Capita, or Per GDP <ul><li>Low in Total CO2 – Per Capita or Per GDP </li></ul><ul><ul><li>L.A. (all sectors) < per capita world avg – Brasil hydro, ethanol ( ETOH) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Road transport share of total emissions – relatively high despite ETOH </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Total road transport CO2 /GDP high by developing country standards </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Trends over Time </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ratio fell before 1990 as Brazilian ETOH role increased </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Barely fell 1990-2006 as ETOH could not keep pace </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ratio fell more in most other regions </li></ul></ul><ul><li>What this Means </li></ul><ul><ul><li>High emissions/GDP a symptom of poor transport </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Low global share of emissions no excuse for indifference or inaction </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Act on transport problems, reap emissions reduction as co-benefit </li></ul></ul>L. America Ic Different: High Emissions for Road Transport High Or Low CO2 Not The Issue: The Issue is Transport
    5. 6. Road Transport Emissions Relative to GDP? Falling Only Very Slowly in Latin America * 1990 figure includes many non-transport uses *
    6. 7. Light Duty Vehicle Ownership and Income Latin America is High for Its Income – the Link to CO2
    7. 8. Light Duty Vehicles Dominate Urban Streets and CO2 Emissions <ul><li>Global Estimate for All of Latin America </li></ul><ul><ul><li>WBCSD Estimates for 2000- 75% of VKT, 43% of rd. trans. emissions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>If “Urban” 80% of LDV, minibus, 50% of bus, 10% of heavy freight – </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Urban LDV are 80% of VKT and 55% of emissions </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Similar Results from Local Emissions Inventories </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Mexico City, Bogota, S Paolo and Santiago </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>High car share means high congestion </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>High congestion itself worsens fuel use, local pollution </li></ul></ul><ul><li>High CO2 is Symptom of Poor Urban Transport </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Light duty vehicles (and colectivos) clog streets </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>LDV -> 55% of urban-centered road transport CO2 emissions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Tough measures to address LDV required </li></ul></ul>Hard to Address CO2 without Improving Urban Transport Including Problems of Transit and Land USe
    8. 9. CO2 Emissions from Road Transport in MCMA – The Urban Share by Vehicle Type *Source: This study based on SMP/WBCSD and IEA/MOMO estimates by mode 2005
    9. 10. CO2 Emissions from Road Transport in MCMA – Similar Patterns for Bogota, Santiago, S Paulo * *Source: MCMA Bottom-up Emissions Inventory S. Paulo has lower emissions from LDV because of alcohol, but still bad traffic
    10. 11. The Future for Transport and Emissions as LDV Dominance Grows <ul><li>WBCSD Projections: “Sustainable Mobility Project” (SMP) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>First truly global mobility-CO2 study </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Projected all major regions, all transport modes, all fuels </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Signed by CEO of major oil and vehicle makers </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Latin America in Perspective by 2030 – According to SMP </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Remains most motorized part of developing world </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>LDV dominate growth in fuel use despite 20% lower fuel/km </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>2030 Emissions 250% of 2000 (other regions narrow gap) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Dealing with CO2 in Urban Transport Means Facing LDV </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ Good Transport” (W Bank) means fewer vkt, probably fewer cars </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Transport measures (congestion pricing, vkt fees) and fuel economy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Low CO2 transit vehicles only have a minor impact </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Needed: Strong Transport Actions Slowing Car VKT, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Strong National Actions on Fuel/CO2 Taxes, Fuel Economy </li></ul></ul>
    11. 12. Future Latin America Passenger Road Transport CO2 Driving Force is LDV Ownership and Use (Source WBCSD Sustainable Mobility Project ) LDVs out of control
    12. 13. Bus Rapid Transit – Mexico’s 1 st Metrobus Line 260,000 people/day over 19km for US $80mn Lower emissions, CO2, reduced car traffic
    13. 14. Metrobus as a Case Study in Co-Benefits How to Save CO2 Without Even Trying <ul><li>The INE Cost Benefit Analysis – </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Values of time, less road wear </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Value of lower air pollution emissions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Fewer accidents and deaths not counted </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Impacts – 50 000 tonnes/CO2 year from Saved Fuel </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Roughly 1/3 from bus switch, 1/3 from better traffic, 1/3 from mode switch </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Fuel saving accure to bus operators, switchers, others in traffic </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>In $, CO2 small benefit even at $85/tonne CO2 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Lessons: Transport First, CO2 as a Co-benefit </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Most of CO2 saving comes from non-project vehicles (!) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Having good long-term data (Inventario) essential for CO2 monitoring </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>1 good transport project can spark dozens (Insurgentes II, Eje 4 ) </li></ul></ul>
    14. 15. Metrobus CO2 Changes by Component CO2 Savings (10% of Corridor Emissions) as Cobenefit were FREE Source Rogers 2006, 2009
    15. 16. Benefits from Metrobus: Broad Than Just CO2 Transport, Health Benefits >> CO2 Benefits Source Schipper et al 2009; INE 2006
    16. 17. What Trends and Projections Say About The Future Treat C02 as a Transport Problem <ul><li>Reducing CO2 Intensity of Travel Important </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Smaller and more fuel economy vehicles </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Higher load factors and better management of vehicles </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>TDM and congestion management to reduce idling losses </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Reducing Travel in High CO2 Modes More Important </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Avoiding Latin America’s high car to GDP growth rate – Urban Development </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Shifting to less C-intensive, more sustainable modes. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Giving real priority to mass transit </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Taking an Integrated Approach Most Important Of All </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Frame problem as transport and urban development, NOT CO2 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Count CO2 as important co-benefit of better urban systems </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Long-term monitoring and evaluation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Financing for Low Carbon Transit – The Least Problem </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Strong Policies – The Hardest Problem </li></ul></ul>
    17. 18. Transport and CO2 in Latin America in 2050: The View from Scenarios <ul><li>Projections (WBCSD, IEA even MEDEC): Lots More Carbon </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Underlying growth in mobility or freight is not challenged </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Opportunities to avoid more CO2-intensive development overlooked </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Final values probably beyond reach </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Backcasting (this Assignment) Exposes Opportunities </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Global goal (from sponsor, ITPS): 50% of present global transport CO2 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>For US, this means 92% reduction </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>For L America, modest reduction </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Realistic? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>300 million more Latinos/as expected by 2050, even more urbanization </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Bogota, MC, Curitiba show avoidance or shifting not impossible </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>40 year time frame: 2 generations of vehicles, 1 of infrastructure </li></ul></ul>Purpose of Scenarios is to turn Weak Links into Opportunities, Not Reinforce Dangerous Trends
    18. 19. “ ASIF” Decomposition: Road Map For Scenario Building Lesson: Attack all Problems of Transport Not Just Technological Efficiency and Fuels Air pollution, health impacts Global CO2
    19. 20. Transport and CO2 in Latin America Two Approaches <ul><li>Backcasting from ITPS Goals (Our Team Only) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Worked from goals, using very low CO2 intensities, lower activities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Varied these “ASIF” components to get per capita targets </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Final values probably beyond reach </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Projections of Transport Activity, Carbon Intensities (w ICCT) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>ICCT provided well researched fuel and CO2 intensities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>We varied loads/vehicle and shrunk cars in Glocal to modify intensities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>We projected activities based on European, earlier US experience </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Challenges Common to Both Approaches </li></ul><ul><ul><li>L. America data problems except SMP estimates for light duty vehicle </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Results testing frontiers of technology </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>General policy directions clear, but specifics must follow </li></ul></ul>
    20. 21. Transport and CO2 in Latin America in 2050 Why Scenarios? <ul><li>Globalization – </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Universal concern for CO2 – rapid advances in technology </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Less local concern for transport, but some actions on congestion </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>CO2 intensity falls greatly, but activity rises -- </li></ul></ul><ul><li>“ Glocalization - </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Less local interest in CO2, but strong local interest in improved transport </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Large deviation from BAU activity projections but growth </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Much smaller cars, higher load factors all modes </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Backcasting – for ½ Present CO2/capita, Lat. Am Close </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Lat. Am great reduction in CO2 intensities but more travel, freight activity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Either scenario requires strong policies and governance now, not in 2049 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Fuel economy stds, road pricing and tolling, etc all need time </li></ul></ul>Results Show Outcomes, but No Guarantee of Results Co-Benefits, “Good Transport” not CO2 Key Drivers
    21. 22. Three Modes Dominate Emissions Cars, Flying, Trucking <ul><li>Cars, Trucks, Air </li></ul><ul><ul><li>WBCSD Estimates for 2000- 75% of VKT, 43% of rd. trans. CO2 in LA </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Few countries have good data on vehicle use, fuel intensity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>No reliable “data” on fuel use/km; no national travel surveys, etc </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Trends Mixed and Uncertain </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Latin Am has very high car ownership/GDP – own production Car use </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ownership rising in L. America – need to understand driving factors </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Air Travel in L. America uncertain – Mostly Int’l travel? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>What Matters– Even Given the Uncertainties </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Much better economy and utilization factors, serious look at rail </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Slowdown in growth in LA and end to car-focused development </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Major shift in transport and developmental policies- </li></ul></ul>Broad Brush Appropriate, but Details Lacking to Validate individual policies’ or technologies’ impacts
    22. 24. De-Carbing Transport in Latin America AS – Activity and Mode Shares <ul><li>A void Carbon Intensive Development (is it too late for NA?) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>For Latin America, large break with trends ala MC, Bogota </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Push against enclaves like Santa Fe (MC); other land use changes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>For new regions, Curitiba model of cleaner development </li></ul></ul><ul><li>S witch: Big Push for Better Transport in Both Scenarios </li></ul><ul><ul><li>For Latin America, big increase in share of bus, rail, little increase in air </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Strong integration of all modes in urban, inter-urban travel </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Support from congestion pricing, road tolls, CO2 taxes, etc </li></ul></ul><ul><li>I mprove by Operations, Technology – But How Far? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Higher load factors on all modes reduce CO2 intensity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Better logistics reduce fuel waste in trucking, delivery </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Strong TDM to reduce present 20-30% fuel waste in congestion </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Projections Show Modest Increase in Travel (and Freight) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Did We Put In Enough? </li></ul></ul>
    23. 25. De-Carbing Transport in L. America IF – Fuel Intensity and Carbon Content <ul><li>Vehicles </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Shrinking cars and improving vehicle technology for cars, trucks </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>New generation of buses, hybrid mini buses, newest aircraft </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>For both regions, technology and changes in transport contribute </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Operations </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Measures to increase loading – more pkt or tonne-km for each vkt </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Real transport demand measurement to reduce losses in congestion </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Stronger enforcement of maintenance for clean and fuel saving </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Fuels – Dilemma for L America is Biofuels </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Careful exploitation of ethanol and fuel cells from low-carbon sources </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Hoped-for role of biodiesel </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Electrification of rail (still limited role) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Figures Used Imply Much Higher Efficiency Than Today </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>This Means Reversal of Apparent Trends in L. Am. Today </li></ul></ul>
    24. 26. Travel and Carbon Intensity Assumptions Pie in the Sky or Realistic
    25. 27. Scenarios Results for Latin America With A Real Effort, Latin America Will Have Lower Emissions Tomorrow
    26. 28. Key Messages: Saving CO2 in Latin America <ul><li>Transport Matters A Lot for CO2; CO2 Matters Little for Transport </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Personal and goods mobility grows with income- how to change that? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Technology improvements important, but activity growth the major problem </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Frame problem as a transport problem: High Co2 = symptom of bad transport </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Freight Harder to Change than Travel? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Specialization within a country/region and globalization </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Trucking still more flexible than rail; can the patterns shift back </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Packages don’t complain like people – improved handling and logistics more important than technology alone </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>CO2 In Transport – Not by Tailpipe Alone (Further thoughts) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Strengthening non-car transport is much more than a CO2 issue </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Easier for L. America to avoid if leaders want that? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>F inance good transport: how and why if leaders only want cars? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Don’t Hang Ordinary Peoples’ Transport Ordeal on CO2 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Improve Transport Without Waiting, Take the CO2 Cobenefit </li></ul></ul>
    27. 29. TECHNOLOGY LEAPFROGGING Gracias Lee Schipper – schipper@berkeley.edu
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