Urban Air Pollution in Developing Country Megacities - Michael P. Walsh

A Workshop On Transportation in Developing Urban Areas: Addressing Air Quality and Climate Change Issues Michael P. Walsh

Growth of Vehicle Population in Shanghai, 1988-2002 E:Changhong CHEN 对外合作能源基金会交通项目基础数据机动车统计报表 .xls

Beijing November 2004 Shanghai November 2004 China is Rapidly Moving From Coal Based Pollution To Motor Vehicle Related Pollution

Current US EPA Annual PM 10 Standard (50) More Stringent WHO PM10 Annual Air Quality Guideline (20) Levels of PM 10 in Latin American Cities (2004 data PAHO) Progress Made, New Concerns as science finds effects at lower exposure levels

Status of Air Quality PM10 levels in Major Chinese Cities (1999 – 2005) NAAQS Class II PM10 limit = 100µg/m 3 But WHO Recommends 20

Status of Air Quality NO 2 levels in Major Chinese Cities (1999 – 2005) NAAQS Class II NO 2 limit = 80µg/m 3 But WHO Recommends 40

Adverse Health Effects From Vehicle Emissions Beyond Dispute
WHO Concludes ~ 800,000 Premature Deaths Each Year From Urban PM; 35,000 in Latin America Alone
Numerous Studies Consistently Link PM With Premature Deaths, Hospital Admissions, Asthma Attacks, Etc.
No Evidence of a Threshold
Ozone Also A Serious Health Concern
NO 2 , Various Toxics Also Problematic

OZONE AND PM CAUSE SERIOUS ADVERSE HEALTH EFFECTS INCLUDING PREMATURE DEATH

PM And Black Carbon Emissions Important For Both Urban Air Pollution and Global Climate Change
In Urban Areas – Major Cause of Premature Death and Morbidity
Black Carbon A Potent Greenhouse Pollutant- GWP Estimates Vary But All Are High
Hansen et al – 2000 for 20 Year
Jacobsen 800-1200
Delucchi CEF ~ 4700

Health Impacts Clearly Linked To Traffic
Over the past decade, dozens of studies from all over the world have shown that spending time in close proximity to heavy traffic, especially diesel truck traffic, is associated with a wide range of morbidity effects, as well as increased mortality
Diesel exhaust particulate declared a toxic air contaminant by ARB in 1998; Many other organizations raise similar concerns

Fixed Site Monitors Tend To Underestimate the Vehicle Problem!

ARB In-Vehicle Study Real-Time Fine Particle Counts (L.A. Freeway, AM Rush Hour, Vent Open) Total Particle Counts / cc Fixed Site Monitors Tend To Underestimate the Vehicle Problem (2)

Sources of Air Pollution in Latin American Cities (PM10 contribution) Mobile sources significant contributor in urban areas Source: PAHO 2005 Assessment, emissions inventory

Sources of Air Pollution in Bangkok

RESPIRABLE SUSPENDED PARTICULATE MATTER (RSPM) LEVELS IN AMBIENT AIR

OXIDES OF NITROGEN (NO X ) LEVELS IN AMBIENT AIR

Emissions From Real Vehicles in Actual Use Are What Impacts On Air Quality

Life-cycle Emission Control Note: I/M (Inspection and Maintenance)

In Use Results in the US
About 65 million vehicles recalled for emissions-related problems since 1971
Over the last 2 years, 6 million vehicles recalled for emission-related problems
Manufacturers motivated to produce high quality and durable emission components in order to reduce in-use liability
Slide --

Actual NOx Levels Are Much Higher Than Type Approval Indicates in EU How have specific NOx emissions of diesel passenger cars evolved in the past? EU 5 Limit

China’s In Use Compliance Program
2007 First Year of Testing
10 Cars/all Passed
9 Motorcycles/4 Failed
Motorcycles Had Different Parts than Type Approval
India Bus Company Removed All Catalysts To Prevent Stealing the “Precious Metals”

Low Sulfur Fuel is Critical to Get Maximum Benefits Sensitivity to Sulfur With Catalyzed Soot Filters

0 200 400 600 800 1000 #90 #93 #97 #90 #93 #97 Reg Pre. Beijing Whole Countries (w/o Beijing) Reference (Japan) Sulfur , ppmw Sulfur Content in Chinese Gasoline Octane Grade 2006 Winter & Summer Euro4 Euro3 (less than 10)

0 10 20 30 40 Manganese, ppmw #90 #93 #97 Reg Pre. Whole Countries (w/ Beijing) Reference (Japan) Octane Grade 2006 Winter & Summer not contain Gasoline Quality in China : Manganese

Bellagio Principles
Design Programs & Policies That Reduce Conventional, Toxic, Noise and Greenhouse Emissions in Parallel
Treat Vehicles and Fuels As A System
Expect & Require Best Technologies and Fuels Worldwide – in Both Industrialized and Developing Countries

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Urban Air Pollution in Developing Country Megacities - Michael P. Walsh

by EMBARQ - The WRI Center for Sustainable Transport on Nov 24, 2008

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