Scoping Post 2012 Climate Instruments: Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions NAMAs Case Study for Opportunities in Urb...
Principles <ul><li>Developing countries offer great climate change mitigation potential by shifting to a low carbon strate...
Sustainable Transport Co-Benefits Matrix Benefits Description Health Benefits Environment <ul><li>Reduced GHG emissions </...
The main challenge for local quality of life and competitiveness and for the global environment is motorization  Source: L...
NAMAs: Support GHG mitigation efforts AND development goals  <ul><li>Actions that are undertaken by developing country Par...
Objective <ul><li>We use the specific case of a mid-size Brazilian city to provide understanding of the needs, methodologi...
Why a NAMA for Urban Transport? <ul><li>Help remove barriers </li></ul><ul><li>Funding </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Increase like...
A model NAMA Structure <ul><li>Policy Objective </li></ul><ul><li>NAMA Description </li></ul><ul><li>Green House Gas Emiss...
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b8/South_america_%281%29.jpg http://i170.photobucket.com/albums/u252/rmcas...
Case Study: Belo Horizonte <ul><li>Capital of Minas Gerais – Southestern Brazil </li></ul><ul><li>Third-largest metropolit...
A model NAMA Structure <ul><li>Policy Objective </li></ul><ul><li>NAMA Description </li></ul><ul><li>Green House Gas Emiss...
Policy Objective (example) <ul><li>The NAMA for integral urban mobility seeks the reduction of GHG emissions from urban tr...
A model NAMA Structure <ul><li>Policy Objective </li></ul><ul><li>NAMA Description </li></ul><ul><li>Green House Gas Emiss...
Source: Prefeitura de Belo Horizonte “Plano de Mobilidade Urbana de Belo Horizonte: Diagnóstico, Cenários e Resultados”, L...
Modal Split 2020  Source: Prefeitura de Belo Horizonte “Plano de Mobilidade Urbana de Belo Horizonte: Diagnóstico, Cenário...
A model NAMA Structure <ul><li>Policy Objective </li></ul><ul><li>NAMA Description </li></ul><ul><li>Green House Gas Emiss...
 
Direct GHG Emissions CO2eq (tonnes/year)
Direct GHG Emissions Savings 2020  (CO2eq tonnes/year) Mode Intermediate Development (BRT) Complete Development (BRT+Metro...
A model NAMA Structure <ul><li>Policy Objective </li></ul><ul><li>NAMA Description </li></ul><ul><li>Green House Gas Emiss...
Travel Time Savings User Benefits (example Public Transport) (56.2 - 50.7)*(204,304 + 236,427)/2 ~ 20.2 million hours/year
Travel Time Savings 2020  (Million hours/year) Mode Intermediate  Development (BRT) Complete Development (BRT+Metro) Publi...
Criteria Pollutant Emissions
Criteria Pollutant Emission Savings CO (Ton/year) HC (Ton/year) NOx (Ton/year) PM (Kg/year) Savings  Intermediate  4,078.0...
Other quantifiable co-benefits <ul><li>Accident Reduction </li></ul><ul><li>Increased Physical Activity </li></ul><ul><li>...
A model NAMA Structure <ul><li>Policy Objective </li></ul><ul><li>NAMA Description </li></ul><ul><li>Green House Gas Emiss...
Data Sources for Monitoring <ul><li>Primary </li></ul><ul><li>Origin-destination surveys  </li></ul><ul><li>Volume and occ...
Key Indicators <ul><li>Modal Share </li></ul><ul><li>Total System Travel Time </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Average Travel Time by...
Reporting & Verification <ul><li>Annual consolidated report </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Update demand and supply characteristics...
http://www.bogotacomovamos.org/datos/AE_14_Bogota_Como_Vamos_2009.pdf 1600 surveys, error 2.6% with a 95% confidence level
A model NAMA Structure <ul><li>Policy Objective </li></ul><ul><li>NAMA Description </li></ul><ul><li>Green House Gas Emiss...
Risks & Mitigation <ul><li>Plan implementation  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Local political agenda,  </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>...
A model NAMA Structure <ul><li>Policy Objective </li></ul><ul><li>NAMA Description </li></ul><ul><li>Green House Gas Emiss...
Supported NAMA <ul><li>Local funding: taxes, public-private partnerships (value capture, congestion pricing) </li></ul><ul...
Conclusions <ul><li>A comprehensive policy for transport is promising in reducing GHG and improving transport and the loca...
Motorization trends can (and should) be reversed Graph: Sao Paulo Municipality Sao Paulo Success Story
Recommendations <ul><li>Continue expanding the initial suggestions under the framework presented in this study.  For insta...
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Scoping Post 2012 Climate Instruments: Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions NAMAs Case Study for Opportunities in Urban Transport in Brazilian Cities

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By Dario Hidalgo. Presented on Day Two of Transforming Transportation. Washington, D.C. January 15, 2010.

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Scoping Post 2012 Climate Instruments: Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions NAMAs Case Study for Opportunities in Urban Transport in Brazilian Cities

  1. 2. Scoping Post 2012 Climate Instruments: Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions NAMAs Case Study for Opportunities in Urban Transport in Brazilian Cities Transforming Transportation 2010 Washington DC, USA January 2010
  2. 3. Principles <ul><li>Developing countries offer great climate change mitigation potential by shifting to a low carbon strategy (as opposed to Business as Usual) </li></ul><ul><li>Low carbon strategies should also support local environmental, economic, transport, social, health and urban development objectives </li></ul><ul><li>Climate change mitigation instruments can contribute in rising financial and institutional barriers for mitigation efforts, while greatly contributing to the local development goals </li></ul>
  3. 4. Sustainable Transport Co-Benefits Matrix Benefits Description Health Benefits Environment <ul><li>Reduced GHG emissions </li></ul><ul><li>Reduced air pollutants Reduced Noise </li></ul><ul><li>Reduced impact in water and protected areas </li></ul><ul><li>Reduced health impacts due to global warming </li></ul><ul><li>Reduced deaths and disabilities from air pollutants </li></ul><ul><li>Reduced stress and hearing losses </li></ul>Social <ul><li>Reduced accidents </li></ul><ul><li>Equitable accessibility </li></ul><ul><li>Increased pride </li></ul><ul><li>Reduced deaths and disabilities from traffic accidents </li></ul>Transport <ul><li>Reduced travel time (walking, waiting, transferring, in-vehicle) </li></ul><ul><li>Reduced travel time uncertainty </li></ul><ul><li>Reduced transport costs </li></ul><ul><li>Reduced stress </li></ul>Economic <ul><li>Increased economic productivity </li></ul><ul><li>Increased employment </li></ul><ul><li>Better labor conditions </li></ul><ul><li>Increased business opportunities </li></ul>Urban Development <ul><li>Increased density/mix uses </li></ul><ul><li>Creation of public spaces </li></ul><ul><li>Reduced cost in utilities’ and social networks </li></ul><ul><li>Increased physical activity (reduced obesity and other illnesses from sedentary lifestyles) </li></ul>
  4. 5. The main challenge for local quality of life and competitiveness and for the global environment is motorization Source: Lee Schipper, Univesirty of California, Berkeley, 2009
  5. 6. NAMAs: Support GHG mitigation efforts AND development goals <ul><li>Actions that are undertaken by developing country Parties and are not enabled or supported by other Parties (unilateral NAMAs); </li></ul><ul><li>Actions that are supported by developed country Parties that could include additional financing support for capacity building and knowledge/ technology transfer; and is likely to be supported by fund-type instruments (supported NAMAs); </li></ul><ul><li>Actions that are undertaken to acquire carbon credits that would be enacted through a crediting scheme. Include up-scaled CDM (very contested). </li></ul><ul><li>http://www.transport2012.org/bridging/ressources/documents/1/68,Discussion_Paper.pdf </li></ul>
  6. 7. Objective <ul><li>We use the specific case of a mid-size Brazilian city to provide understanding of the needs, methodological and practical issues of application of NAMAs in the urban transport sector </li></ul><ul><li>Main questions: </li></ul><ul><li>Which are the GHG mitigation and co-benefit potentials of sustainable, low carbon transport in a mid size Brazilian? </li></ul><ul><li>What would an Avoid-Shift-Improve oriented NAMA for Brazilian city/cities look like? </li></ul><ul><li>How would it be organized? </li></ul><ul><li>How would it be financed? </li></ul><ul><li>How would it be Monitored-Reported-Verified? </li></ul><ul><li>How could it be scaled up? </li></ul>
  7. 8. Why a NAMA for Urban Transport? <ul><li>Help remove barriers </li></ul><ul><li>Funding </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Increase likelihood of receiving funding from Federal/State level as the plan contributes to the National/State GHG mitigation objectives </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Participate in international financial flows: supported NAMA (outside offsetting mechanism) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Public Acceptance </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Making explicit the local benefits </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Growing concern on climate change mitigation </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Continuity </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Increased likelihood of “surpassing” local/state/national election cycles </li></ul></ul>
  8. 9. A model NAMA Structure <ul><li>Policy Objective </li></ul><ul><li>NAMA Description </li></ul><ul><li>Green House Gas Emission Reductions </li></ul><ul><li>Co-Benefits </li></ul><ul><li>Monitoring, Reporting and Verification </li></ul><ul><li>Risk Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Financing </li></ul>
  9. 10. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b8/South_america_%281%29.jpg http://i170.photobucket.com/albums/u252/rmcastanheira/BelaFoto.jpg “ Road Testing” Belo Horizonte Brazil
  10. 11. Case Study: Belo Horizonte <ul><li>Capital of Minas Gerais – Southestern Brazil </li></ul><ul><li>Third-largest metropolitan area in the country: 2.4 million inhabitants with 5.4 million in the Metropolitan Area </li></ul><ul><li>Is developing a comprehensive mobility plan </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Extensive data collection </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Adequate transport modeling techniques </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Transport oriented indicators </li></ul></ul>
  11. 12. A model NAMA Structure <ul><li>Policy Objective </li></ul><ul><li>NAMA Description </li></ul><ul><li>Green House Gas Emission Reductions </li></ul><ul><li>Co-Benefits </li></ul><ul><li>Monitoring, Reporting and Verification </li></ul><ul><li>Risk Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Financing </li></ul>
  12. 13. Policy Objective (example) <ul><li>The NAMA for integral urban mobility seeks the reduction of GHG emissions from urban transport and the improvement of transport conditions, the local environment and the population’s health. </li></ul><ul><li>The NAMA seeks to avoid the increase of vehicle kilometers, shift passenger and cargo movements to efficient modes, and improve the energy efficiency of the vehicle fleet. Actions under the plan are also expected to increase the city competitiveness and the quality of life. </li></ul>
  13. 14. A model NAMA Structure <ul><li>Policy Objective </li></ul><ul><li>NAMA Description </li></ul><ul><li>Green House Gas Emission Reductions </li></ul><ul><li>Co-Benefits </li></ul><ul><li>Monitoring, Reporting and Verification </li></ul><ul><li>Risk Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Financing </li></ul>
  14. 15. Source: Prefeitura de Belo Horizonte “Plano de Mobilidade Urbana de Belo Horizonte: Diagnóstico, Cenários e Resultados”, Logit Consultants, October 2009 Component Committed Investments (BAU) Intermediate Development (BRT) Complete Development (BRT+Metro) Roadways Construction/ Improvement Limited Interventions VIURBS Complete interventions in VIURBS and Central Area Plan Bus Rapid Transit Implementation 9 corridors with reserved bus-lanes 9 corridors with full BRT and 6 corridors with reserved bus-lanes Metro Expansion Headway reduction to 4 minutes and train expansion to 6 cars in Line 1. New Metro Station Expansion L1, L2, L3 Integration 12 Integration stations including 2 metropolitan stations All integration stations, 5 connections between BRT corridors, priority for metropolitan bus Bicycle Infrastructure 110 Km bikeways 365 Km bikeways Pedestrian Facilities Improved sidewalks in downtown and the 9 corridors with bus-lanes Improved connections in downtown, sub-centers and BRT Land Use No action. Transit Oriented Development regulations along transit corridors Parking Policies Increase in median daily parking charges in Central area to R$15,00/dia
  15. 16. Modal Split 2020 Source: Prefeitura de Belo Horizonte “Plano de Mobilidade Urbana de Belo Horizonte: Diagnóstico, Cenários e Resultados”, Logit Consultants, October 2009
  16. 17. A model NAMA Structure <ul><li>Policy Objective </li></ul><ul><li>NAMA Description </li></ul><ul><li>Green House Gas Emission Reductions </li></ul><ul><li>Co-Benefits </li></ul><ul><li>Monitoring, Reporting and Verification </li></ul><ul><li>Risk Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Financing </li></ul>
  17. 19. Direct GHG Emissions CO2eq (tonnes/year)
  18. 20. Direct GHG Emissions Savings 2020 (CO2eq tonnes/year) Mode Intermediate Development (BRT) Complete Development (BRT+Metro) Public Transport (86,446) 88,046 Private Transport 146,637 344,843 Total 60,192 432,889
  19. 21. A model NAMA Structure <ul><li>Policy Objective </li></ul><ul><li>NAMA Description </li></ul><ul><li>Green House Gas Emission Reductions </li></ul><ul><li>Co-Benefits </li></ul><ul><li>Monitoring, Reporting and Verification </li></ul><ul><li>Risk Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Financing </li></ul>
  20. 22. Travel Time Savings User Benefits (example Public Transport) (56.2 - 50.7)*(204,304 + 236,427)/2 ~ 20.2 million hours/year
  21. 23. Travel Time Savings 2020 (Million hours/year) Mode Intermediate Development (BRT) Complete Development (BRT+Metro) Public Transport 20.2 33.2 Private Transport 51.8 77.3 Total 72.0 110.5
  22. 24. Criteria Pollutant Emissions
  23. 25. Criteria Pollutant Emission Savings CO (Ton/year) HC (Ton/year) NOx (Ton/year) PM (Kg/year) Savings Intermediate 4,078.0 536.6 1,102.2 19,426.2 Savings Complete 10,480.3 1,279.2 2,391.0 24,505.9 Reduction Intermediate 12% 13% 16% 41% Reduction Complete 31% 32% 34% 52%
  24. 26. Other quantifiable co-benefits <ul><li>Accident Reduction </li></ul><ul><li>Increased Physical Activity </li></ul><ul><li>Summary indicators </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Deaths avoided </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Injuries avoideed </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Days lost </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Disability Adjusted Day Life (DALYs) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Socio-Economic Equivalent </li></ul>
  25. 27. A model NAMA Structure <ul><li>Policy Objective </li></ul><ul><li>NAMA Description </li></ul><ul><li>Green House Gas Emission Reductions </li></ul><ul><li>Co-Benefits </li></ul><ul><li>Monitoring, Reporting and Verification </li></ul><ul><li>Risk Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Financing </li></ul>
  26. 28. Data Sources for Monitoring <ul><li>Primary </li></ul><ul><li>Origin-destination surveys </li></ul><ul><li>Volume and occupancy analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Measurement of travel speeds </li></ul><ul><li>Road network characteristics (number of lanes, parking, directions) </li></ul><ul><li>Public transport network characteristics (routes, frequency, stops, fares) </li></ul><ul><li>Phone interviews on principal mode of transport, trip length and trip time </li></ul><ul><li>Secondary </li></ul><ul><li>Public transport boardings and revenues </li></ul><ul><li>Census data (population by census tract, socio-economic characteristics) </li></ul><ul><li>Home based surveys (employment, level of education, income) </li></ul><ul><li>Student enrollment </li></ul><ul><li>Business activity surveys </li></ul><ul><li>Car registration, including type of fuel and vehicle efficiency </li></ul><ul><li>Fuel consumption </li></ul><ul><li>Gross Domestic Product (proxy for travel activity) </li></ul><ul><li>Air quality monitoring data (criteria pollutants) </li></ul><ul><li>Traffic accident data (fatalities, injuries, incidents) </li></ul><ul><li>Hospital admissions (acute respiratory disease, heart failure) </li></ul>
  27. 29. Key Indicators <ul><li>Modal Share </li></ul><ul><li>Total System Travel Time </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Average Travel Time by Mode </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Demand by Mode </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Kilometers by Mode </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Emissions (CO2eq, Criteria Pollutants) – Emission Factors – Lifecycle effects </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>System cost (out of pocket per km, total per trip) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Accidents </li></ul><ul><li>Physical Activity (min per day walking/biking) </li></ul>
  28. 30. Reporting & Verification <ul><li>Annual consolidated report </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Update demand and supply characteristics </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Verify consistency with field data </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Update emission factors if applicable </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Calculate key indicators </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Verify quality of data collection & modeling </li></ul><ul><li>Contrast modeling results with secondary data </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Air quality monitoring data </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Telephonic surveys: principal mode of travel, trip length, trip time. </li></ul></ul>
  29. 31. http://www.bogotacomovamos.org/datos/AE_14_Bogota_Como_Vamos_2009.pdf 1600 surveys, error 2.6% with a 95% confidence level
  30. 32. A model NAMA Structure <ul><li>Policy Objective </li></ul><ul><li>NAMA Description </li></ul><ul><li>Green House Gas Emission Reductions </li></ul><ul><li>Co-Benefits </li></ul><ul><li>Monitoring, Reporting and Verification </li></ul><ul><li>Risk Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Financing </li></ul>
  31. 33. Risks & Mitigation <ul><li>Plan implementation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Local political agenda, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Natural resistance of affected parties (existing transit providers, community in the area of influence of terminals, businesses during construction) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Funding availability. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Emission and Cobenefit Analasys </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Prone to problems in data collection, modeling and lack of technical expertise to analyze and interpret the data. </li></ul></ul>Community Information, Participation and Involvement Formalization and standardization and quality assurance (ISO certification).
  32. 34. A model NAMA Structure <ul><li>Policy Objective </li></ul><ul><li>NAMA Description </li></ul><ul><li>Green House Gas Emission Reductions </li></ul><ul><li>Co-Benefits </li></ul><ul><li>Monitoring, Reporting and Verification </li></ul><ul><li>Risk Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Financing </li></ul>
  33. 35. Supported NAMA <ul><li>Local funding: taxes, public-private partnerships (value capture, congestion pricing) </li></ul><ul><li>Contribution of different levels of government (federal, state) </li></ul><ul><li>Programmatic Loans from MDBs </li></ul><ul><li>Climate change funding (broad understanding of technology funds, not limited to clean, low carbon fuels and vehicles) </li></ul>
  34. 36. Conclusions <ul><li>A comprehensive policy for transport is promising in reducing GHG and improving transport and the local environment, and thus, constitute an appropriate mitigation action. </li></ul><ul><li>Formalizing a comprehensive mobility plan under a NAMA framework is likely to help in addressing the barriers and implementation risks. </li></ul><ul><li>NAMA will encourage results oriented transport planning and provide a good framework for monitoring, verification and continuous improvement </li></ul>
  35. 37. Motorization trends can (and should) be reversed Graph: Sao Paulo Municipality Sao Paulo Success Story
  36. 38. Recommendations <ul><li>Continue expanding the initial suggestions under the framework presented in this study. For instance: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Develop detailed guidelines for data collection, modeling and analysis. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Inclusion of life cycle and leakage calculations in emission estimates. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Training for people involved in estimation, monitoring, reporting and verification. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Adoption of national standards on procedures, parameters and reporting requirements. </li></ul></ul>

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