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Road Safety Trends and Vulnerable Groups in South Asia
 

Road Safety Trends and Vulnerable Groups in South Asia

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By Raj Ponnaluri, Consultant (Hyderabad, India)

By Raj Ponnaluri, Consultant (Hyderabad, India)

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    Road Safety Trends and Vulnerable Groups in South Asia Road Safety Trends and Vulnerable Groups in South Asia Presentation Transcript

    • Road Safety Trends and Vulnerable Groups in South Asia Raj V Ponnaluri, P.E. Transforming Transportation January 15, 2009
    • Opening Comments
      • Road traffic concerns continue to plague developing countries.
      • Exponential population growth is straining economies and governance.
      • Migration, for better living standards, is causing urban densification leading to:
        • Urban traffic congestion
        • Unsafe roadways
        • Deteriorating air quality
    • RTIs Worldwide
      • WHO: Worldwide RTIs claim 180,000 lives in children under 15 yrs of age; males 50% more affected than girls.
      • Low-to-middle income countries account for 85% of deaths due to RTI; SE Asia and West Pacific contribute > 50% global RTI deaths.
      • Global road death toll to rise by 66% bet. 2000-2020; 28% decline in HI nations [Kopits, Cropper].
      • Fatalities to rise by 2 per 10 K persons in developing nations; drop by 1 per 10K in HI nations.
      • WHO Global Burden of Disease, 2002: RTIs primary cause of death among 15-19 worldwide.
    • World Fatality Trends (1980-1995) Source: Transport Research Laboratory; Extracted from “The neglected epidemic: road traffic injuries in developing countries” by Nantulya and Reich. Of all regions, Asia is impacted the most
    • South Asia
      • SA’s population of 1.45B; 400M or 29% of world’s poor; 5%-6% growth rate last decade.
      • Institutional issues; poor road infrastructure hamper MDG.
      • India ranks 2 nd in world’s fatalities.
      • Bangladesh: low motorization yet alarming 85.6 fatalities per 10 K V; Nepal (24.3), India (20.3), Pakistan (18.7) and Sri Lanka (15.5).
      • Projected fatalities increase: 144% between 2000 and 2020 [Kopits and Cropper]
    • Road Crashes in South Asia: A Perspective
      • The most recent aggregate crash data is over a decade old: 1992-1994.
      • Out of 8 SA nations, details are not available for Afghanistan and Maldives.
      • Literature consistently supports the paucity of data.
      • When available, under-reporting and aggregation makes analysis difficult.
    • SA: Fatalities and Injuries Source: Asian Development Bank SA (25 F/10K V), Nepal (61), Bangladesh (49), India (25) SA (104 I/10K V), Sri Lanka (190) India (112), Nepal (93) SA (5.7 F/100K P), Sri Lanka (8.9), India (6.8), Pakistan (4.9) SA (24 I/100K P), Sri Lanka (104), India (30), Pakistan (12) Severity Index: SA (19 F/100 Crashes), Bangladesh (41), Nepal (40), Bhutan/Pak (30)
    • In Essence…. India experienced the most fatality and injury rates followed by Sri Lanka. Pakistan had experienced high rates of fatalities and injuries per 100K people. Nepal and Bangladesh also saw RTI concerns. Rank (1992 -1994) Fatalities per 10,000 Vehicles Injuries per 10,000 Vehicles Fatalities per 100,000 People Injuries per 100,000 People Severity Index (Fatal Crashes / Total Crashes) 1 Nepal Sri Lanka Sri Lanka Sri Lanka Bangladesh 2 Bangladesh India India India Nepal 3 India Nepal Pakistan Pakistan Bhutan/Pakistan
    • South Asia: Road Traffic Injuries in Children under 19 years
      • Mortality rates:
        • World (<15Y) = 10.1 per 100,000 children
        • South Asia (<19Y) = 17 per 100,000 children
      • Mean RTI incidence: 880 per 100,000 children.
      • RTIs account for 24% of all C < 19 injuries.
      • RTIs: 30% peds, 26% bus riders, 3% cyclists.
      • 67-80% RTIs occurred in males.
        • Source: Road traffic injuries in urban Africa and Asia: A policy gap in child and adolescent health, Hyder et. al.
    • South Asia: RTI Burden on Children and Adolescents
      • 40% of all male cases in 0-9 age group.
      • Children and adolescents represent
        • 22% of RTIs who seek care; 13% of RTI deaths.
      • Traffic mortality equated to 16 HeaLY (healthy life years lost) per 1000 people.
      • HeaLY: measures the gap between current health status and ideal/standard health.
      • Including disability HeaLY is 27.7 per 1000 population; est. loss of 30,592 children and adolescent per annum in SA alone.
      • Source: Estimating the burden of road traffic injuries among children and adolescents in urban South Asia, Hyder et. al.
    • South Asia: Road User Types in Children and Adolescents
      • Source: Estimating the burden of road traffic injuries among children and adolescents in urban South Asia, Hyder et. al.
      • Hyder et. al. showed that only a small number of studies (26 of 1505) to evaluate RTIs of children under 19 yrs are available.
      • Studies showed varying (30% to 50%) female RTIs.
      • DATA is SCARCE and not readily available.
    • Sri Lanka, India: RTIs and Alcohol
      • Permissible BAC vary from nation to nation.
      • Enforcement has been the key to curbing alcohol-related RTIs.
      • Sri Lanka:
        • Of the 54 hospital cases (De Silva et. al., 2001), 67.4% of fatal crashes attributable to alcohol consumption
        • 10% drivers were found to be under the influence (Ratnayake, 1998)
      • Several studies in India (post-2000):
        • From Gururaj, Bangalore: 11% to 40% alcohol-related RTIs
        • From Narayanan, TN: 12% alcohol-related RTCs
        • Though high, in some instances, 42%-89% tested were alc. +ve
      • Source: Alcohol and road traffic injuries in South Asia: challenges for prevention. Gururaj.
    • Indian Domination in South Asia
      • As of 1992, India accounted for:
        • 71% of SA’s population
        • 82% of SA’s motor vehicles
        • 86% of SA’s two- and three-wheel vehicles
        • 83% of all road-related fatalities
        • 88% of road-related injuries
        • And 87% of total road-related crashes
      • Hence studying India can help point key areas for crash mitigation and life-savings.
    • Crash Risk in India – 1970~2005 Fatality and Injury risk per 10,000 vehicles is dropping mainly due to large vehicle volumes increases. Fatality and Injury risk per 100,000 people is increasing despite accelerating population growth: cause for concern .
    • India: 2001 vs. 2005; Nationwide vs. UAs Nationwide Main Risk Types: Heavy Vehicles, MTWVs, and Buses 35 UAs Main Risk Types: MTWVs, Peds, Heavy Vehicles, Buses UAs where most women travel to work, children go to school and urban poor depend on public transport are at high risk
    • Major Risk Categories - NATIONWIDE
      • Heavy Vehicles – Trucks/Lorries
        • Truck volumes on the rise due to national highways, industrialization and fast-moving-cons.-goods
        • 26% and 23% of nationwide fatalities in 2001 and 2005
        • 7.7% increase in fatalities during the 4 years
      • MTWVs
        • Provision of national highways is helping increase intra-state and inter-city travel among rural regions
        • 12% and 16% of nationwide fatalities in 2001 and 2005
        • 67% increase in fatalities during the 4 years
      • Buses
        • Outside the railways, STUs and private operators move people
        • 15% and 12% of nationwide fatalities in 2001 and 2005
        • Marginal (2.7%) increase in fatalities during the 4 years
    • Major Risk Categories – Cities
      • MTWVs
        • Primary mode of work-based and leisure travel; men of all ages, young (< 25) and middle-aged women (25-40) as well
        • 22% and 27% of fatalities in 35 UAs during 2001 and 2005
        • 39.6% increase in fatalities during the 4 years
      • Pedestrians
        • Lack of road space, encroachments; all people at high risk, especially the handicapped, children and elderly
        • 17% and 20% of fatalities in 35 UAs during 2001 and 2005
        • 31.5% increase in fatalities during the 4 years
      • Heavy Vehicles – Trucks/Lorries
        • 18% and 14% of fatalities in 35 UAs during 2001 and 2005
        • 11.6 drop increase in fatalities during the 4 years
        • Drop attributable to movement restrictions during daytime
    • India: 2001 Male, Female by Vehicle Type Men:Women =83%:17%; Women Share: Ped: 21%; Bus, Car, 3-W: 20% each; MTWVs: 12%; Bikes: 10%. 59% or more incidents were treated outside a medical facility. Despite less women at risk overall, given that several have limited access to healthcare, it is likely that a large number of women may remain untreated. 2001 - Medical Attention in Rural, Urban and all India
    • Andhra Pradesh, India Fatalities at schools/colleges increased but persons injured dropped. Large increase in fatalities and persons injured at several locations: Poor ACCESS MANAGEMENT. 2001 to 2006: Fatal Crashes (as a % of all crashes)at these vulnerable locations increased, albeit slightly. Fatal crashes increased substantially while non- injury crashes dropped signifying a concerning trend of crash intensity. AP: 2001 and 2006 Fatal Crashes (%) at key locations
    • AP: Fatalities and Persons Injured by Age and Gender Among various age groups, Female fatalities ranged 14%-32% with the max in age range 6 to 14 yrs. Among both males and females, 21-44 year olds had 58% fatalities. Female injured ranged 12%-37% with the max in age group under 5 yrs. among age groups, 21-44 old had 57% injured. Year 2006 vs. 2001 Comparison (% change)   Fatalities Persons Injured AGE Male Female Total Male Female Total < 5 yrs 164 53 122 183 175 180 6-9 yrs 121 119 120 250 266 255 10-14 yrs 97 84 93 21 245 49 15-17 yrs (15) 47 (7) (11) 88 1 18-20 yrs 121 1 87 63 232 78 21-24 yrs 126 (40) 70 49 (35) 21 25-34 yrs 68 (34) 43 96 (24) 63 35-44 yrs 65 (16) 45 143 (5) 105 45-54 yrs 29 29 29 73 (3) 57 55-64 yrs (10) 153 1 (17) 36 (11) 65,+ yrs 807 165 557 792 290 627 TOTAL 66 (5) 50 74 7 58
    • Karachi, Pakistan - A Perspective
      • 1993-01: 21% of all RTIs involved children < 15 yrs.
      • 15% died at incident or during transport to hospital; 54% heavy vehicle involvement.
      • 1994 – Police / Ambulance records: 56% / 35% deaths, 4% / 11% serious injuries.
      • 2003 RTIs – 89.6% males; 10.4% females; 24.9% peds., 20.9% MTWVs, 21.9% PT.
      • 27% of cases had missing data, 67% of age-related data unavailable.
      • 1993-94 and 2003 road user characteristics are similar (males, age, mortality); not much changed.
    • Karachi – RTIs among Children
      • RTI children < 15 years: 81% males; avg. age = 9.6.
      • 26% were peds., 21% minibus riders.
      • Passengers: 9% MTWVs, 7% bus, 6% car, 5% van, truck 3%, rickshaw 1%, bike 2%.
      • 14% died on site or during hospital transport.
      • 57% of peds died prior to reaching hospital.
      • Ped. children at 3 times more mortality risk than non-peds.
      • Majority of RTI vehicles were buses, minis, heavy's.
      • Source: The potential of Ambulance Records for a Road Safety Agenda in Low Income Countries; Razzak.
    • Bangladesh - A Perspective
      • Motor vehicles annual growth: 8% to 10%.
      • Vehicle volume to double in 7 years with a large share of NMV.
      • Demand for private transport modes is on the rise; first impact on urban areas.
      • 70% of urban fatalities are pedestrians.
      • Med. sized cities: 43% to 73% ped. fatalities.
      • 1986-87 to 1991-92: ped. share increased from 43% to 67%.
      • Source: Urban Transport Issue and Improvement Options in Bangladesh; Hoque et. al
    • Bangladesh – RTI vis-à-vis Children
      • Bangladesh Health and Injury Survey [Rahman et. al., 2005]:
        • Urban incident of non-fatal RTIs: 118.2 per 100,000 children aged 1 to 17 years
        • RTI incidence twice in rural than in urban areas
        • Death rate of 6 per 100,000 children aged 1-17
        • Disability rate of 2.4 per 100,000 children
        • Males at higher risk than are females.
    • Afghanistan – An Empirical Survey
      • Survey of 40 Medical Doctors in 2008.
      • Methodology: written survey; verbal interviews.
      • Most doctors witness 2 to 200 traffic injury cases per month with several attending to 50 to 100.
      • 40% felt that children are at risk of traffic injury.
      • Of those, primary children risk group age 5 to 10.
      • High risk groups: 20-25; 31-40; some 26-30 yrs.
      • Most agreed that
        • children risk increasing due to incremental school attendance
        • Women at low risk now but need attention in future
    • Afghanistan – An Empirical Survey
      • Unanimous agreement that
        • Road safety problems are on the rise;
        • Urban areas at greater RTI risk;
        • Medical professionals see a significant increase in crash numbers and injuries;
        • Mostly injury crashes but fatalities on the rise;
        • Speeding, due to better roads, is on the rise;
        • Women not at direct traffic risk since they are only recently beginning to ride or drive;
        • Need for developing policy on road safety.
        • Privately-owned vehicles is on the rise.
    • Afghanistan – An Empirical Survey
      • Opinion on severity index varied – range of 5% to 60% with several pointing to 30%.
      • Media reports and speaks on road accidents.
      • Educational component of road safety is absent.
      • Most incidents are reported to traffic police.
      • Traffic police handle basic reporting but lack training in incident management.
      • Improvement suggestions ranged from:
        • ‘ Fix the potholes, traffic signals, TV Programs’ to
        • ‘ Warning systems, design, enforcement’
    • Vulnerable Categories
      • Young drivers; most susceptible to:
        • Crash involvement especially in heavy modal mix
        • High speed, alcohol usage, youth-factor, design defect
        • If road is available, reckless driving is observed;
          • Else, weaving through dense traffic on MTWVs
        • Access to emergency care post-incident
      • Low income, middle-aged to senior women; susceptible to:
        • Riding on IPT modes; if RTI, multiple deaths occur
        • Travel on non-public transport heavy vehicles
      • Disabled and the Handicapped:
        • Roads are practically designed without consideration
        • Traffic junctions rarely have disabled-friendly features
    • Conclusions …
      • Preponderance of pedestrian and MTWV RTCs consistent in most parts of SA.
      • Males 20 to 40 years of age are the most susceptible; most MTWVs in this age group.
      • Most pedestrians are women or children.
      • Risk of school-going children in RTCs on the rise in several UAs; lack of pedestrianization.
      • Overloading of children in IPT modes.
      • Women in overloaded minibuses at risk.
      • Women and children at risk but little data to support the assertion.
      • Ambulance records better than police FIRs or medical notes - EMRI / 108 in India.
    • Challenges
      • No single-championing entity; if present command and control unclear or curtailed.
      • Most literature from public health perspective; little attention regarding road engineering.
      • PH pros better geared to understand the RTI problem.
      • More women in SA entering work place; need for studying RTI incidence for preventive action.
      • Children increasingly at risk due to lack of ped. facilities in UAs and overloading; need action.
      • More young children driving private vehicles; need enforcement action and education.
      • Disabled and urban poor at high risk due to lack of transportation system facilities and access.
    • Needs of the Hour…
        • Better engineered roads:
          • Dedicate space for peds/bike tracks/NMVs; BRTS
          • Traffic demand; Access management
        • Result-oriented safety education
          • Inclusion in curriculum; safety at schools
          • Driving/ped. etiquette; NGO activity in Hyd.
          • Vehicle maintenance; licensing processes
        • Focused enforcement:
          • Overloading of minibuses (women at risk);
          • Overloading of IPTs (school children, women);
          • alcohol use; reckless driving by middle-aged men
        • Life-saving emergency management:
          • Recent trends - EMRI 108 similar to 911; need for better record-keeping; data access
    • Needs of the Hour
      • Planning and implementation of road Projects
        • Ensuring road are strictly designed to standards
        • Designing transport systems for the disabled and seniors
        • Strict monitoring of works to ensure safety’s included
        • Building roads in full conformity with designs
        • Emphasis on multimodalism despite Jn NURM
        • Mandatory landuse, TIAs, sidewalks, NMV lanes…
        • PPP projects a step in the correct direction
      • Strategic prioritization of road safety projects
        • From transport comes economic development, vice-versa
        • UAs under immediate threat of degrading further
        • Rural and sub-urban areas not immune
        • Basics – pedestrianization, pavement mgmt, non-variable SLs (not the speed but variation that kills)
    • Issues and Opportunities
      • NEED Road Accident Reporting System
        • No unified data structures across states
        • Aggregate data; no opportunity for inference/correl.
        • Under-reporting of data, esp. near-miss / MI cases
        • Police FIRs ► District SPs ►State Crime Bureaus ► National Crime Bureau ► Dissemination
        • NEED a quality Road Accident Reporting System
      • Road infrastructure and design
        • Landuse based planning; ROW dedication
        • Conceptualization and detailed engg. design
        • Focus on ped., bike, NMV and PT modal safety
        • Projected-demand based capacity needs for design
        • Construction according to plans; QA/QC; PMC (BRTS)
    • Issues and Opportunities
      • O&M
        • Poor road maintenance impedes vehicle movement and inefficient use of road capacity
        • But mainly causes crashes – inclement weather and night-time conditions; rains; water-logging
        • Worse in rural areas; UAs not immune
      • Institutional issues
        • Legal system should expedite RTI cases; witnesses and good samaritans should be protected
        • Commitment to TIA; New PPP/BOT initiatives help
        • Access Management – lack of control; conflict points; encroachments; need National Policy
        • Single empowered authority; engineering, academia & research, police, emergency response
    • Issues and Opportunities
      • Vehicle maintenance; registration; licensing
        • MV acts in some states require re-registration after 15 years! Vehicle maintenance in question
        • Method of issuing driving licenses sometimes questioned; less/untrained drivers on the rise
        • NGOs actively working to address the problem
      • Education
        • Curriculum in schools; esp. since children at risk
        • Adults need driver education; almost no to low penalty for poor driving; middle-aged at high risk
        • Violation points ► in-class defensive driving; need a system similar to the US
        • Traffic police need incident mgmt. capacity bldg.
    • Issues and Opportunities
      • Enforcement
        • Reasonable to say Traffic Police carry the most weight despite criticism from all quarters
        • Manage traffic junctions with and without traffic signals
        • Work with RTAs to enforce entry limits, overloads
        • Collect data in FIRs; do not receive feedback
        • Traffic police understaffed; safety one of many jobs
      • Etiquette
        • People’s way of life needs to change; awareness
        • Traffic safety should become a cultural aspect
        • Post-crash professionalism; wait for the cop!
    • Issues and Opportunities
      • Emergency response
        • A new ‘108’ ‘EMRI’ system operations in Hyderabad since 2005
        • EMRI synonymous with ‘911’ – lifesaving!
        • Minus EMRI, no emergency services; initiatives in many states
        • Mostly in UAs; not fully available in rural areas
        • RTIs on highways and rural areas at high risk
      • The 5 ‘E’s
        • Good road engineering first
        • education and enforcement next
        • emergency response
        • etiquette governs
      • Things ARE getting better in the country; More remains to be done; Policies to Reality .
      • Most crashes CAN be mitigated through
      • institutional commitment
      • and concerted effort of the
      • industry comprising
      • traffic engineers, consultants,
      • designers, and road contractors;
      • researchers, academicians
      • and school administrators;
      • safety- focused law-enforcement;
      • and
      • active emergency rescue units
      • Thank You
      • Raj V Ponnaluri, P.E.
      • (currently) (on lien)
      • Associate Vice-President Professor
      • SREI Infrastructure Advisory Admin Staff College of India
      • Hyderabad, INDIA Hyderabad, INDIA
      • [email_address] [email_address]