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Lessons from Challenge Bibendum - Patrick Oliva

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What 10 years of Challenge Bibendum have taught the private and public sectors about sustainable road transport and reducing GHG

What 10 years of Challenge Bibendum have taught the private and public sectors about sustainable road transport and reducing GHG

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  • 1. What 10 years of Challenge Bibendum have taught the private and public sectors about sustainable road transport and reducing GHG 2008 TRB Meeting
  • 2. Rallying together towards sustainable road mobility Since 1998, Challenge Bibendum has been telling us where industry and governments would like to go
  • 3. Last edition of Challenge Bibendum : Shanghai, November 14 – 17, 2007 2500 participants, 600 journalists, 150 vehicles, 200 major companies or institutions represented
  • 4. Tomorrow's road mobility must adapt to growing urbanization as well as address societal challenges in terms of far greater energy efficiency and diversified energies. It will have to be cleaner, safer and more fluid… …or it will come up against formidable opposition, with major predictable consequences on employment and social & economic development!... The stakes
  • 5. Let’s be clear about it: Road mobility as we know it is NOT sustainable and the solutions contemplated so far are not commensurate with the criticality of what is at stake. 5 issues need to be addressed simultaneously: Insecurity Urban pollution GHG emissions Congestion Oil dependency
  • 6. New mobility patterns Reduction of transport related CO 2 emissions Urban way of life (congestion, pollution, noise, pedestrian security) New predictable business practices Resource related conflicts
  • 7.
    • 50 million vehicles
    • 2.5 billion inhabitants
    • 28% of populations town dwellers
    • <10% of CO 2 emissions and 20% of oil use were transport-related
    1950
  • 8.
    • >>1,500 million vehicles?
    • 9 billion inhabitants?
    • 70% of populations town dwellers?
    • >30% of CO 2 emissions and 75% of oil uses are transport-related?
    2050
  • 9. Transportation: a critical role in world political issues
  • 10. Transportation: a critical role in world political issues
  • 11. To limit temperature increase to 2°C in 2050, GHG concentration must be constrained below 450ppm. This means cutting worldwide CO 2 emissions by half (2050 vs 2000). Climate
  • 12. In the case of road transportation, trends point to a doubling of CO 2 emissions rather than a reduction by 2! G8 – Heiligendamm, June 2007  reduce CO 2 by 50%!
  • 13. Mr. Ban Ki Moon: UN Secretary General (UN Security Council’s first debate on climate change. April 17th, 2007) “ Limited or threatened access to energy (and scarce resources) is already known to be a powerful driver of conflict. Our changing planet risks making it more so.”
  • 14. Consequence : Very shortly (in the preparation of « Post-Kyoto » agreements), drastic regulations will impose dramatic changes in energy use and transportation patterns. This must be integrated in our strategic vision of road mobility.
  • 15. On a global basis, the next 25 years will witness (1)
    • continued dominance of ICEs and liquid hydrocarbon fuels (with enhanced combustion efficiency, exhaust gas treatment and fuel evolutions)
  • 16. Energy to overcome resistance Fv Fv
    • On average, at 100km/h : F A >50%, F RR >20%, F I + F V >20%
    • City driving : weak F A , %F RR  , %F I 
    Vehicle Inertia (M) F I Rolling resistance (M,S) Vehicle internal losses Aerodynamic drag (ACd,S) F A F V F RR F RR
  • 17. On a global basis, the next 25 years will witness (2)
    • Reduced consumption:
        • Engine efficiency: upgraded from 30% to 40%
        • Reduced cylinderpower
        • Reduced vehicle mass
        • Optimised aerodynamcs, tires, internal frictions
    • Diversified fuel:
        • Biofuels
        • Natural gas + synthetic fuels (GTL + CTL)
        • Hydrogene
        • Multifuel engine technologies
    • + (urban) benefits of hybridation
  • 18. On a global basis, the next 25 years must also witness (3)
    • dynamic market penetration of hybrid vehicles (featuring various degrees of hybridization) and electric vehicles.
  • 19. On a global basis, the next 25 years must also witness (4)
    • significant development of:
      • combined active and passive safety systems,
      • car-to-car and car-to-infrastructure communication,
      • ITS technologies
      • to enable (in particular), cars to be both lighter and safer.
  • 20. Ragone Plot for various types of batteries
  • 21. Vehicle design and technology evolutions: key features
    • From ICE injection optimization to electric powertrain management, electronics and electric power become critical.
    • Electrical energy storage deserves maximum attention: batteries and supercapacitors will play a major role.
    • By the time electric powertrains become mass marketed, « by wire » technology will also have to be developed. It is a key to weight reduction.
  • 22.
    • the future will be multi-technological
    • ve hicles will be much lighter
    • in the « post Kyoto » agreement negotiations, road transportation actors will be called upon to make substantial efforts.
    Three things are sure: an acceleration in electric engine development. One we can predict:
  • 23.
    An interesting case: China
    • China set forth its 3 priorities:
    • Reduce oil consumption and develop know-how in terms of alternative sources of energy
    • Bridge the gap with Europe, Japan and the United States as regards emission standards so as to curb urban pollution
    • Promote a revolution in propulsion systems
  • 24. Mr. Katsuaki Watanabe: CEO, Toyota “ If it fails to take environmental measures, the automotive industry has no future”. Mr. Hiroyuki Watanabe: Director for Research, Toyota “ The future of cars is electric” (Shanghai, November 15, 2007)
  • 25.
    • So far electric vehicles have failed to rise to expectations owing to:
        • poor autonomy (cell capacity + protracted charging time)
        • overweight 
        • « overpriced » vehicles
        • unsupportive psychological and regulatory environment
        • maintenance network issues
        • doubtful “life cycle” level benefits
    EV: strong resistance to be overcome!
  • 26. Photovoltaic pannels Electric Current Water Hydrogen Oxygen Fuel cell Electric drive vehicle Exhaust: Water Sun rays Storage up to 300 bars Storage up to 300 bars Electrolysis + Compression Clean mobility: it works !
  • 27.
    • A decarbonizing economy does not mean economic decline!!!
  • 28.
    • Innovation in low carbon technologies is both a societal and an industry necessity.
  • 29.
    • Lack of innovation leads to price war.
  • 30. Thank you