Impact on Public Health of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Urban Land Transport
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Impact on Public Health of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Urban Land Transport

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By James Woodcock. Presented at Day One of Transforming Transportation 2010. Washington, D.C. January 14, 2010. www.transformingtransportation2010.org

By James Woodcock. Presented at Day One of Transforming Transportation 2010. Washington, D.C. January 14, 2010. www.transformingtransportation2010.org

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  • Detailed methods are provided in the webappendix accompanying the article.
  • The three pathways we selected because of strong evidence of a link and sufficient evidence to provide numerical estimates were road traffic injury risk, air pollution and physical activity. Photos: Adam DiChiara, James Woodcock
  • These are estimated distance per person at baseline for London. Only 5 km by foot, and 2.9 km on bike per week.
  • This is a projection to 2030 in which there is a big uptake of lower emission motor vehicles but little change in travel patterns.
  • In this scenario there is a large fall in distance travelled by car and big increase in walking to 11 km per week and cycling to 24 km per week.
  • These are the per capita carbon dioxide emissions from transport from the different futures. BAU is business as usual with no mitigation measures.
  • The health impact was measured in DALYs (Disability Adjusted Life Years) which combines both years of life lost and years of healthy life lost from a disability. We found a much larger health benefit from increased active travel (7332 DALYs through combined changes in physical activity, air pollution and injury) than we found from lower carbon driving (changes in air pollution 160 DALYs). The benefit in the combined scenario (combining both more walking and cycling and lower carbon driving) found the largest benefit (7439 DALYs).
  • We found large health gains from reductions in heart disease and stroke and smaller benefits from less dementia and breast cancer. We found an increase in the number of road traffic fatalities.
  • Estimates for Delhi were based on less reliable evidence and were more uncertain than those for London.
  • At baseline travel patterns in Delhi are different from London, with less car use and more walking and cycling. People travel an average of 13 km by bike and 10 km on foot per week.
  • In a projection for 2030 there is a large increase in total travel including a large increase in car use and an increase in motor cycle and rail use. There is a fall in cycling and a small fall in walking.
  • In our active travel future there is no increase in car use but a large increase in cycling (33 km per person per week) and a smaller increase in walking (12 km per person per week).
  • These are the per capita carbon dioxide emissions from transport from the different futures. BAU is business as usual with no mitigation measures.
  • The health impact was measured in DALYs (Disability Adjusted Life Years) which combines both years of life lost and years of healthy life lost from a disability. We found a much larger health benefit from increased active travel (1696 DALYs through combined changes in physical activity, air pollution and injury) than we found from lower carbon driving (changes in air pollution 12516 DALYs). The benefit in the combined scenario (combining both more walking and cycling and lower carbon driving) found the largest benefit (12995 DALYs).
  • In Delhi as in London we found the biggest benefit from less heart disease (affected by both air pollution and physical activity) and stroke. But we also found fewer road traffic fatalities and important benefits from less diabetes and depression.
  • http://www.gw.govt.nz/Road-rules-and-cycling-safety/
  • Photo: Dinesh Mohan
  • Photo: Ian Roberts
  • Reducing the speed of motor vehicles can increase safety for pedestrians Photo: Adam DiChiara
  • Filters such as this one can make the streets permeable for cyclists but not cars.

Transcript

  • 1.  
  • 2. Impact on Public Health of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Urban Land Transport Based on : Public health benefits of strategies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions: urban land transport. Woodcock J, Edwards P, Tonne C. et al. The Lancet: Published Online November 25, 2009DOI:10.1016/S0140-6736(09)61714-1
  • 3.  
  • 4. Pathways modelled
  • 5. Methods
    • Models linking transport scenarios to health outcomes
      • Physical activity & Air pollution
        • Comparative Risk Assessment
        • Conditions in Global Burden of Disease Study
      • Injuries
        • Direct modelling of impact of changes in traffic & pedestrian volume
  • 6.  
  • 7.  
  • 8.  
  • 9.  
  • 10.  
  • 11. London: Alternative scenarios
  • 12. London: Health impacts by cause Change in disease burden Change in premature deaths Ischaemic heart disease 10-19% 1950-4240 Cerebrovascular disease 10-18% 1190-2580 Dementia 7-8% 200-240 Breast cancer 12-13% 200-210 Road traffic crashes 19-39% 50-80
  • 13.  
  • 14.  
  • 15.  
  • 16.  
  • 17.  
  • 18.  
  • 19. Delhi: Alternative scenarios
  • 20. Delhi: Health impacts by cause Change in disease burden Change in premature deaths Ischaemic heart disease 11-25% 2490-7140 Cerebrovascular disease 11-25% 1270-3650 Road traffic crashes 27-69% 1170-2990 Diabetes 6-17% 180-460 Depression 2-7% NA
  • 21.  
  • 22. Few cyclists: high danger but few casualties
  • 23. More cyclists: less danger but more casualties?
  • 24. Many cyclists: low danger and few casualties
  • 25. Policy implications
    • Plan to increase walking & cycling and reduce car use
      • Reallocating space from the car
  • 26.  
  • 27.  
  • 28. Policy implications
    • Plan to increase walking & cycling and reduce car use
      • Reallocating space from the car
      • Reducing volume & speed of motor traffic
  • 29.  
  • 30.  
  • 31. Policy implications
    • Plan to increase walking & cycling and reduce car use
      • Reallocating space from the car
      • Reducing volume & speed of motor traffic
      • Providing direct, safe, and pleasant routes for walking & cycling
  • 32.  
  • 33.  
  • 34. Conclusions
      • Replacing motor vehicle trips with walking or cycling is a win win in both developed & developing countries
    • Right to direct, pleasant and safe routes for pedestrians and cyclists
    • Restrict motor vehicle use:
      • speed, parking & road space
  • 35. Collaborators
    • LSHTM
    • James Woodcock
    • Phil Edwards
    • Cathryn Tonne
    • Ben Armstrong
    • Zaid Chalabi
    • Andy Haines
    • Ian Roberts
    • Health Effects Institute
    • Aaron Cohen
    • Institute of Technology, New Delhi
    • Dinesh Mohan
    • Geetam Tiwari
    • King’s College
    • Sean Beevers
    • Takedo International
    • Olu Ashiru
    • University of Auckland
    • Alistair Woodward
    • Graeme Lindsay
    • University of Oxford
    • David Banister
    • Robin Hickman
    • University of Warwick
    • Oscar H. Franco
    • University of San Diego
    • Zohir Chowdhury