How to Measure the Impact of Transport Interventions - Maria CordeiroPresentation Transcript
TRB 87 th Annual Meeting Washington DC, January 2008 Maria Cordeiro Environment Projects Manager The WRI Center for Sustainable Transport How to Measure the Impact of Transport Interventions
Opportunities for Emission Reductions
Methods for Impact Estimations
Quer é taro Case Study
Integrated approaches pose synergies
GHG Emission Reductions Local Pollutants Emission Reductions GHG Emission Increases Local Pollutants Emission Increases TOD Efficient Services Vehicle Technology Driving Behavior ECT* Cleaner Fuels * Emission Control Technologies not always reduce GHG Cleaner Modes TOD Efficient Services (load and operation) Vehicle Technology Driving Behavior Cleaner fuels THE NETHERLANDS Photo: FPPQQ Integrated Modes ECT
Demand for impact estimations Carbon Market Reproducibility, Verifiability, Engagement to reduce project risks Ball Park, Low Cost Water tight Other impacts Conservativeness Philanthropic Orgs. Intergovernmental Orgs. Multilateral Banks Government with non-biding targets Government with biding targets Corporations and individuals
SUPPLY MANAGEMENT PRICING DEMAND MANAGEMENT LAND USE NETWORK STRUCTURE TRAFFIC CONTROL INFORMATION SOCIO- ECON-DEMO DISTRIBU- TIONS INPUTS POLICY LAYER FLEET DISTRI- BUTIONS INPUTS EMISSION FACTORS INPUTS ENERGY, AIR QUALITY MAN. Source: Professor Hani Mahmassani
Range of methodologies available
Support from multilateral
and bilateral institutions
Examples from the field Hanoi Bogot á M é xico City Quer é taro
BRT in Quer é taro, Mexico
Bottom-up Approach INE SENES Inventario ZMVM Retrofit CM Componente 3 CM Querétaro Data sources Sum of emissions per vehicle model and fuel type Baseline – official records Post project – transport plan Emission factors x Distance traveled x Number of vehicles = Emissions
CO 2 Emissions – entire fleet 88% reduction in CO 2 emissions 0 Hybrid Parallel D15ppm, DPF Allison, EPA2004 7 Hybrid Serie, D15 ppm Eletrabus, EUROII 6 CNG FAW, EPA2004 5 Diesel, 15ppm S MB 11, EPA98 4 Diesel, 50ppm S DPF RTP 3 MB Torino, EPA98 3 Diesel, 50ppm S Scania, EURO III 2 Diesel, 350 ppm Diesel, 350ppm S Scania (MB), EURO III 1 Other Trunk Fuel and emission control techs Vehicle technology in trunk route
Criteria Pollutant Emissions – entire fleet Reduction of emissions by approximately 90% Hybrid Parallel D15ppm, DPF Allison, EPA2004 7 Hybrid Serie, D15 ppm Eletrabus, EUROII 6 CNG FAW, EPA2004 5 Diesel, 15ppm MB 11, EPA98 4 Diesel, 50ppm S DPF RTP 3 MB Torino, EPA98 3 Diesel, 50ppm S Scania, EURO III 2 Diesel, 350 ppm Diesel, 350ppm S Scania (MB), EURO III 1 Other Trunk Fuel and emission control techs Vehicle technology in trunk route
A transport system is very interconnected, and to be able to see the impact of a project we need to use a bottom up approach.
There is not one single method that fits all projects and cities.
Data availability and reliability is a major issue.
What was very interesting in the case of Quer é taro is that most emission reductions came from the optimization of the transit services.
Thank you ! http://embarq.wri.org/ Maria Cordeiro [email_address]