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How to Measure the Impact  of Transport Interventions - Maria Cordeiro
 

How to Measure the Impact of Transport Interventions - Maria Cordeiro

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    How to Measure the Impact  of Transport Interventions - Maria Cordeiro How to Measure the Impact of Transport Interventions - Maria Cordeiro Presentation Transcript

    • TRB 87 th Annual Meeting Washington DC, January 2008 Maria Cordeiro Environment Projects Manager The WRI Center for Sustainable Transport How to Measure the Impact of Transport Interventions
    • Outline
      • Opportunities for Emission Reductions
      • Methods for Impact Estimations
      • Quer é taro Case Study
    • Integrated approaches pose synergies
      • Opportunities
      GHG Emission Reductions Local Pollutants Emission Reductions GHG Emission Increases Local Pollutants Emission Increases TOD Efficient Services Vehicle Technology Driving Behavior ECT* Cleaner Fuels * Emission Control Technologies not always reduce GHG Cleaner Modes TOD Efficient Services (load and operation) Vehicle Technology Driving Behavior Cleaner fuels THE NETHERLANDS Photo: FPPQQ Integrated Modes ECT
    • Demand for impact estimations Carbon Market Reproducibility, Verifiability, Engagement to reduce project risks Ball Park, Low Cost Water tight Other impacts Conservativeness Philanthropic Orgs. Intergovernmental Orgs. Multilateral Banks Government with non-biding targets Government with biding targets Corporations and individuals
    • SUPPLY MANAGEMENT PRICING DEMAND MANAGEMENT LAND USE NETWORK STRUCTURE TRAFFIC CONTROL INFORMATION SOCIO- ECON-DEMO DISTRIBU- TIONS INPUTS POLICY LAYER FLEET DISTRI- BUTIONS INPUTS EMISSION FACTORS INPUTS ENERGY, AIR QUALITY MAN. Source: Professor Hani Mahmassani
    • Range of methodologies available
      • Applications:
      • Carbon Markets
      • Federal support
      • Support from multilateral
      • and bilateral institutions
      • Regulatory compliance
    • Examples from the field Hanoi Bogot á M é xico City Quer é taro
    • BRT in Quer é taro, Mexico
    • Bottom-up Approach INE SENES Inventario ZMVM Retrofit CM Componente 3 CM Querétaro Data sources Sum of emissions per vehicle model and fuel type Baseline – official records Post project – transport plan Emission factors x Distance traveled x Number of vehicles = Emissions
    • CO 2 Emissions – entire fleet 88% reduction in CO 2 emissions 0 Hybrid Parallel D15ppm, DPF Allison, EPA2004 7 Hybrid Serie, D15 ppm Eletrabus, EUROII 6 CNG FAW, EPA2004 5 Diesel, 15ppm S MB 11, EPA98 4 Diesel, 50ppm S DPF RTP 3 MB Torino, EPA98 3 Diesel, 50ppm S Scania, EURO III 2 Diesel, 350 ppm             Diesel, 350ppm S Scania (MB), EURO III 1 Other Trunk Fuel and emission control techs Vehicle technology in trunk route
    • Criteria Pollutant Emissions – entire fleet Reduction of emissions by approximately 90% Hybrid Parallel D15ppm, DPF Allison, EPA2004 7 Hybrid Serie, D15 ppm Eletrabus, EUROII 6 CNG FAW, EPA2004 5 Diesel, 15ppm MB 11, EPA98 4 Diesel, 50ppm S DPF RTP 3 MB Torino, EPA98 3 Diesel, 50ppm S Scania, EURO III 2 Diesel, 350 ppm             Diesel, 350ppm S Scania (MB), EURO III 1 Other Trunk Fuel and emission control techs Vehicle technology in trunk route
    • Lessons Learnt
      • A transport system is very interconnected, and to be able to see the impact of a project we need to use a bottom up approach.
      • There is not one single method that fits all projects and cities.
      • Data availability and reliability is a major issue.
      • What was very interesting in the case of Quer é taro is that most emission reductions came from the optimization of the transit services.
    • Thank you ! http://embarq.wri.org/ Maria Cordeiro [email_address]
    •