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Financing needs for sustainable transport systems for the 21st century   holger dalkmann - embarq - 7th regional est forum in asia 2013 - wed 24-apr-2013
Financing needs for sustainable transport systems for the 21st century   holger dalkmann - embarq - 7th regional est forum in asia 2013 - wed 24-apr-2013
Financing needs for sustainable transport systems for the 21st century   holger dalkmann - embarq - 7th regional est forum in asia 2013 - wed 24-apr-2013
Financing needs for sustainable transport systems for the 21st century   holger dalkmann - embarq - 7th regional est forum in asia 2013 - wed 24-apr-2013
Financing needs for sustainable transport systems for the 21st century   holger dalkmann - embarq - 7th regional est forum in asia 2013 - wed 24-apr-2013
Financing needs for sustainable transport systems for the 21st century   holger dalkmann - embarq - 7th regional est forum in asia 2013 - wed 24-apr-2013
Financing needs for sustainable transport systems for the 21st century   holger dalkmann - embarq - 7th regional est forum in asia 2013 - wed 24-apr-2013
Financing needs for sustainable transport systems for the 21st century   holger dalkmann - embarq - 7th regional est forum in asia 2013 - wed 24-apr-2013
Financing needs for sustainable transport systems for the 21st century   holger dalkmann - embarq - 7th regional est forum in asia 2013 - wed 24-apr-2013
Financing needs for sustainable transport systems for the 21st century   holger dalkmann - embarq - 7th regional est forum in asia 2013 - wed 24-apr-2013
Financing needs for sustainable transport systems for the 21st century   holger dalkmann - embarq - 7th regional est forum in asia 2013 - wed 24-apr-2013
Financing needs for sustainable transport systems for the 21st century   holger dalkmann - embarq - 7th regional est forum in asia 2013 - wed 24-apr-2013
Financing needs for sustainable transport systems for the 21st century   holger dalkmann - embarq - 7th regional est forum in asia 2013 - wed 24-apr-2013
Financing needs for sustainable transport systems for the 21st century   holger dalkmann - embarq - 7th regional est forum in asia 2013 - wed 24-apr-2013
Financing needs for sustainable transport systems for the 21st century   holger dalkmann - embarq - 7th regional est forum in asia 2013 - wed 24-apr-2013
Financing needs for sustainable transport systems for the 21st century   holger dalkmann - embarq - 7th regional est forum in asia 2013 - wed 24-apr-2013
Financing needs for sustainable transport systems for the 21st century   holger dalkmann - embarq - 7th regional est forum in asia 2013 - wed 24-apr-2013
Financing needs for sustainable transport systems for the 21st century   holger dalkmann - embarq - 7th regional est forum in asia 2013 - wed 24-apr-2013
Financing needs for sustainable transport systems for the 21st century   holger dalkmann - embarq - 7th regional est forum in asia 2013 - wed 24-apr-2013
Financing needs for sustainable transport systems for the 21st century   holger dalkmann - embarq - 7th regional est forum in asia 2013 - wed 24-apr-2013
Financing needs for sustainable transport systems for the 21st century   holger dalkmann - embarq - 7th regional est forum in asia 2013 - wed 24-apr-2013
Financing needs for sustainable transport systems for the 21st century   holger dalkmann - embarq - 7th regional est forum in asia 2013 - wed 24-apr-2013
Financing needs for sustainable transport systems for the 21st century   holger dalkmann - embarq - 7th regional est forum in asia 2013 - wed 24-apr-2013
Financing needs for sustainable transport systems for the 21st century   holger dalkmann - embarq - 7th regional est forum in asia 2013 - wed 24-apr-2013
Financing needs for sustainable transport systems for the 21st century   holger dalkmann - embarq - 7th regional est forum in asia 2013 - wed 24-apr-2013
Financing needs for sustainable transport systems for the 21st century   holger dalkmann - embarq - 7th regional est forum in asia 2013 - wed 24-apr-2013
Financing needs for sustainable transport systems for the 21st century   holger dalkmann - embarq - 7th regional est forum in asia 2013 - wed 24-apr-2013
Financing needs for sustainable transport systems for the 21st century   holger dalkmann - embarq - 7th regional est forum in asia 2013 - wed 24-apr-2013
Financing needs for sustainable transport systems for the 21st century   holger dalkmann - embarq - 7th regional est forum in asia 2013 - wed 24-apr-2013
Financing needs for sustainable transport systems for the 21st century   holger dalkmann - embarq - 7th regional est forum in asia 2013 - wed 24-apr-2013
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Financing needs for sustainable transport systems for the 21st century holger dalkmann - embarq - 7th regional est forum in asia 2013 - wed 24-apr-2013

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  • 1. Financing Needs for Sustainable TransportSystems for the 21st CenturyPlenary Session 8 - 10:30-11:30amApril 24, 20137th Regional EST Forum in AsiaHolger DalkmannDirector, EMBARQWorld Resources Institute
  • 2. Financing Needs for Sustainable Transport0 CONGESTION0 AIR POLLUTION0 ROAD FATALITIES$ 5 TRILLION INVESTMENT?
  • 3. CONGESTIONROAD SAFETYCLIMATE CHANGEPUBLIC HEALTHRoad congestion already costs Asianeconomies 2-5% of GDP every yearAsia accounts for 60% of the world’s1.2 million traffic fatalities per yearAsia is home to 60% of the globe’sat-risk MegacitiesAsia has the highest air pollution levelsin the world; up to 80% from transport
  • 4. Asian Road Energy Use Doubles with Business as Usual104 104241 241417466 4866795489336061,18302004006008001,0001,2001,4002000(2DS)2000(4DS)2010(2DS)2010(4DS)2020(2DS)2020(4DS)2030(2DS)2030(4DS)2040(2DS)2040(4DS)2050(2DS)2050(4DS)Annual Road Energy Consumption, IEA Projections(millions of oil ton equivalent)China India ASEAN2DS: 2 Degree Celsius Scenario4DS; 4 Degrees Celsius Scenario (Business as Usual)Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives 2012
  • 5. Asia is Rapidly UrbanizingSource: Growth rates of urban agglomerations 1970-2011 (UNDESA, 2011)
  • 6. Ahmedabad, India3.3 million 1992 6.4 million 2011
  • 7. Two Options: Sustainable or Unsustainable?TodayAhmedabad, IndiaPopulation: 5.4mTrips: 5.6m/yrYear 2041Population: 13.2mTrips: 39.8m/yrAutomobilityArea: 6,484 sq. kmEmissions: 12.32m tCO2/yrTraffic Fatalities: 5,232/yrSustainable TransportArea: 50% reductionEmissions: 84% reductionTraffic Fatalities: 74% reduction• Same population• Same number of trips• Very different outcomes
  • 8. Transport Infrastructure Investment EstimatesSource: CEPT University, 12FYP, 201110 Million20300.4 BillionUSD/Year0.6 BillionUSD/Year1.2 BillionUSD/Year0.8 BillionUSD/Year
  • 9. Unleveraged, $175 billion is only 1.2 percent of globaltransport investment ($1 trillion)Source: based on Sakamoto/Dalkmann (2010)Total Transport Investment: $908 billion64.2 Percent16.4 Percent16.5 percent$175 billion = 1.2Percent per yearDomestic FinanceForeign Direct InvestmentInternational Debt FinanceODAGEF w/ co-financingGEFCDMCTFRio+20
  • 10. Shifting Finance to Sustainable Transport is the SolutionSource: Sakamoto et al. (2010)
  • 11. Asian Development Bank: Funding Urban TransportSource: Asian Development Bank (2013)
  • 12. National Governments are Central to Shifting FinanceInternational OrganizationsNational GovernmentsCity and Local GovernmentsPlannedprojectinvestmentsTransportPolicyTransportFinance
  • 13. National Governments can Maximize Shift through TwoKey Areas that Improve Sustainable Transport FinanceNational GovernmentsLeveraging SustainableTransport Financing forGreatest ImpactIncreasing the Effectiveness ofSustainable TransportFinancing
  • 14. Six National Government Actions to ImproveSustainable Transport FinancingLeveraging SustainableTransport Financing forGreatest ImpactIncreasing the Effectiveness ofSustainable TransportFinancingNational policy programs thatimplement domestic, internationaland climate financeEngage private sector and createsupportive conditions for investmentUse local funding and innovativesustained financingInstitutional changes to streamlinefunding to local levelImpact-based monitoring andevaluationCapacity building and policyguidance
  • 15. Strong policy frameworks (urban transport finance program,link to Mobility Plans, enabling framework condition forraising local revenue, etc.)Backed with domestic planning and finance (national & local)Aligned with- multi-lateral development bank safeguards- climate finance (e.g. GCF)- supported by private financeNational policy programs that implement domestic,international and climate finance
  • 16. National ProgramsThailand in Focus• National transport planning recognizes sustainability through ASI• CTF provided $70 million to co-finance BRT system as part of$300 million in CTF financing nationally• NAMAs to be developed as tool for GHG reduction
  • 17. Viable regulatory and legal environmentReduce risk of investment, especially politicalTransparent procurement frameworkExpand PPPs and private finance to urban transport fromairports and portsEngage private sector and create supportiveconditions for investment22.1%27.7%1.4%34.9%8.1%5.8%Central GovernmentState GovernmentProperty DevelopmentPrivate SectorDebt from MDB/bilateral institutionsDebt from domestic financial institutionsTotal Investment in Urban Transport India’s 12th FiveYear Plan (2012-2017); 35% from Private SectorSource: EMBARQ India (2013)
  • 18. Opportunity for PPPs and Private Finance of Transport in India
  • 19. Correct fuel pricing andreduce fuel subsidies(national level)Incorporate parkingfees, road user fees,vehicle taxes, andcongestion pricing intofinancingUse innovativefinancing mechanismsthat capture futurebenefitsUse local funding and innovative sustainedfinancingSource: GIZ (2011), International Fuel Prices 2010/2011, 7th Edition
  • 20. Use Local, Sustained FundingInnovation in Hong Kong: Rail + Property ModelRecognizing that easy access to metro is valuable, MassTransit Railway (MTR) finances part of construction costs fornew subway lines with profits from new housing, commercial,and retail, allowing MTR to expand and operate withoutgovernment subsidies.
  • 21. Clear roles for national, sub-national, and localgov’tsLink funding from national government to localprojects that meet specific conditions and criteriaCoordinate funding, planning, operations, andprivate actorsConsistent guidelines for budgeting, classifyingtransport projects, and conducting evaluationsLegislative mandates and changes wherenecessaryInstitutional changes to streamline funding tolocal level
  • 22. Institutional Streamlining to Local LevelJnNURM II in India• Expands JnNURM I with $40 billion over five years• Emphasis on local projects through collaboration with localand state officials from first stage of project identification• Builds capacity and knowledge sharing at local levelBEFORE AFTERSource: Suzuki et al. (2013) “Transforming Cities with Transit: Transit andLand-Use Integration for Sustainable Urban Development,” World BankJanmarg (BRT)Ahmedabad, India
  • 23. Performance outcomes keep projects on track and aligninternational, national, and local objectivesIncorporate indicators of health, safety, equity, access,environment, quality, and economic productivity forcomprehensive sustainable transportNational governments should implement needs assessment,policy planning, monitoring, and ex-post impact evaluationOrganize outcomes and track progress with a scorecardImpact-based Monitoring and Evaluation
  • 24. Safeguard 2:Mitigates effects ofinvoluntary resettlementand compensates fordisplacementSafeguard 1:Does not affectenvironmentally sensitiveareas and mitigatesnegative impacts onnatural resourcesIllustrative Scorecard to Evaluate FundingIncreases non-motorized and public transportReduces GHG emissions compared to business as usualReduces traffic deaths compared to business as usualEquityProductivityPhysical ActivityJobsNeeds of WomenVulnerable AccessMandatory OutcomesRecommended Outcomes
  • 25. Build capacity at local level for developing and implementingsustainable transport plansEncourage peer-to-peer knowledge exchanges betweenlocal and national governments, and MDBsProvide technical guidance for evaluation of projectalternatives and outcomesCapacity building and policy guidance
  • 26. Highlight the importance of national governments andfacilitate knowledge sharing between governments, peer-to-peer capacity building initiativeCoordinate regional capacity building on financeForums like EST Asia enable international cooperation thatadvances the sustainable transport agendaDevelop monitoring framework (based on BangkokDeclaration)Offer guidance on scorecardsNext EST: Session with Ministry of Finance?Importance of Regional Forum
  • 27. Six National Government Actions to ImproveSustainable Transport FinancingLeveraging SustainableTransport Financing forGreatest ImpactIncreasing the Effectiveness ofSustainable TransportFinancingNational policy programs thatimplement domestic, internationaland climate financeEngage private sector and createsupportive conditions for investmentUse local funding and innovativesustained financingInstitutional changes to streamlinefunding to local levelImpact-based monitoring andevaluationCapacity building and policyguidance
  • 28. Financing Needs for Sustainable Transport0 CONGESTION0 AIR POLLUTION0 ROAD FATALITIES$ 5 TRILLION INVESTMENT!
  • 29. Thank youBackground Paper:“Financing Needs for Sustainable TransportSystems for the 21st Century”
  • 30. Holger Dalkmann - HDalkmann@wri.orgAnjali Mahendra - amahendra@embarqindia.orgMatthew Raifman - mraifman@wri.orgwww.thecityfix.comEMBARQ.orgQuestions? Comments? Contact us at embarq@wri.orgFollow us on Twitter: @EMBARQnetworkContact

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