Asia and the Global Energy EconomyMaria van der HoevenExecutive DirectorInternational Energy Agency22 October, Singapore  ...
Oil Medium Term Outlook                    A more comfortable market ahead?                    Spare capacity increase, bu...
Changing oil trade patterns                             A new global crude trade map                                      ...
Increasing need for cooperation during oil supplydisruptions                                 70                           ...
A growing role for natural gas                                        LNG liquefaction capacity         Note: LNG capacity...
Developing a natural gas trading hub in Asia  Asia is the second largest gas consuming region  But there is no trading h...
Gas and renewables need to dominate ASEANelectricity                      Fuel mix in ASEAN electricity in the ETP 2012 2D...
The ASEAN power sector is key to climate goals                         Sectoral contributions to achieve a 2 degree scenar...
Multiple outcome benefits of Energy Efficiency  Sector-wide                             Health                            ...
Medium Term Trends in Renewable Energy  As a portfolio of renewable technologies matures, global   renewable power genera...
Smart grid benefits exceed costs by a factor ofbetween 1.5 and 4.5  ... but direct benefits of investment in one sector ma...
Conclusions   •Slowing economic growth and geopolitical uncertainties create a “new   reality of risk”.   •But there are b...
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Maria van der Hoeven's speech at Singapore International Energy Week

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The inspiring Opening Keynote address by Maria van der Hoeven, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency.

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Maria van der Hoeven's speech at Singapore International Energy Week

  1. 1. Asia and the Global Energy EconomyMaria van der HoevenExecutive DirectorInternational Energy Agency22 October, Singapore © OECD/IEA 2010
  2. 2. Oil Medium Term Outlook A more comfortable market ahead? Spare capacity increase, but geopolitical risk remain high  Lower demand growth and more robust supply picture make for more comfortable balance  Economic outlook remains uncertain  OPEC spare capacity rebuilds after years of low levels  Increased above-ground risks  Technological advances are far reaching© OECD/IEA - 2012 © OECD/IEA 2010
  3. 3. Changing oil trade patterns A new global crude trade map Crude Exports in 2017 and Growth in 2011-17 for Key Trade Routes* (million barrels per day) * Excludes Intra-Regional Trade 0.1 (-0.2) OECD 3.3 Europe (-1.1) OECD 3.0 1.1 (+0.6) Pacific North America (+0.9) 1.3 0.7 4.6 (-0.6) (+0.3) (-0.4) China 0.6 (-1.3) 2.5 Other Asia 1.9 (-0.2) 1.2 (+0.7) -0.3 1.5 5.6 1.7 (+0.7) (+0.3) (-1) 0.2 (+0.2) 0.6 Red number in brackets denotes growth in period 2011-17 (+0.2) -North American crude import requirements plummet as regional supply rises -Rising Middle East demand curtails export availability -‘East of Suez’ accounts for an ever growing share of global crude trade© OECD/IEA - 2012 © OECD/IEA 2010
  4. 4. Increasing need for cooperation during oil supplydisruptions 70 70%days of world oil demand cover 60 60% 50 50% Growing share of non-OECD 40 40% oil demand results in 30 30% declining global demand 20 20% cover from IEA emergency oil 10 10% stocks - 0% IEA stocks in terms of global oil demand with China with India with ASEAN Share of non-OECD in global oil demand IEA – Thailand Regional Energy Security and Oil Stock- Building Workshop 2012 © OECD/IEA 2010
  5. 5. A growing role for natural gas LNG liquefaction capacity Note: LNG capacity based on FID taken as of end-September 2012. Global LNG trade will increase by one third over 2011-17 Many ASEAN countries are turning to LNG imports © OECD/IEA 2010
  6. 6. Developing a natural gas trading hub in Asia  Asia is the second largest gas consuming region  But there is no trading hub providing an alternative to oil-linked imports  Establishing wholesale natural gas markets with functioning spot markets is a lengthy process  Singapore is looking at developing a gas trading hub  Will it be a bridge towards the creation of a bigger hub  And will it remain as an alternative regional pricing point? © OECD/IEA 2010
  7. 7. Gas and renewables need to dominate ASEANelectricity Fuel mix in ASEAN electricity in the ETP 2012 2DS 2 500 Other 2 000 1 500 Coal TWh 1 000 Gas 500 0 Renewable 2009 2030 2050 s 2DS Natural gas and renewables need to be the primary fuels to meet growth in electricity demand in the ASEAN region. © OECD/IEA 2010
  8. 8. The ASEAN power sector is key to climate goals Sectoral contributions to achieve a 2 degree scenario in the ASEAN region 4 000 3 500 3 000 6DS 2 500 Agriculture, other 0% MtCO 2 Other transformation 6% 2 000 Power 41% 1 500 Industry 14% 1 000 Transport 19% 500 Buildings 19% 0 2009 2020 2030 2040 2050 © OECD/IEA 2010
  9. 9. Multiple outcome benefits of Energy Efficiency Sector-wide Health and Job creation Asset Individual social values Energy benefits provider Consumer benefits surplus Macro Energy impacts affordability & access Energy Public efficiency Energy budgets savings improvement Resource Energy management security Enterprise Development productivity goals Climate Energy change International prices mitigation National © OECD/IEA 2010
  10. 10. Medium Term Trends in Renewable Energy  As a portfolio of renewable technologies matures, global renewable power generation is forecast to rise 40% over 2011- 2017  This projected growth is an acceleration versus the previous period  Renewable power deployment spreads out geographically, with increased activity in emerging Asia – China accounts for 40% of global generation growth © OECD/IEA 2010
  11. 11. Smart grid benefits exceed costs by a factor ofbetween 1.5 and 4.5 ... but direct benefits of investment in one sector may be found in other sectors. © OECD/IEA 2010
  12. 12. Conclusions •Slowing economic growth and geopolitical uncertainties create a “new reality of risk”. •But there are bright spots for oil production, as well as for gas supply and clean power generation. •Asian gas prices are largely due to the absence of a functioning and efficient regional gas market. Singapore has a key role to play in that. •Renewable energy technologies are progressing well and costs are falling. But policy lags must be overcome to integrate them at scale, and to promote energy efficiency. The global oil map, and wider energy map, is changing © OECD/IEA 2010

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