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From education to working life: the labour market outcomes of VET
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  • 1. From education to working life:the labour market outcomes of VETSession 3: How can VET ease the transition fromeducation to work, and meet labour market needsAlex Stimpson, CedefopEESC Labour Market Observatory conference6 February 2012Roskilde, Denmark
  • 2. The Labour Market Outcomes of VET 2 VET is key to meeting labour market needs Labour demand by qualification (LF 15-64) in EU-27+ 250 Millions 50% of all jobs will require medium level qualifications in 2020 200 High  23 % 28 % qualification 31 % 150 Demand for morehighly qualified workers Medium  100 48 % implies structural 49 % qualification 50 %changes and a need todiversify VET provision 50 at the higher level 29 % Low  23 % 19 % 0 qualification 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Source: Cedefop (IER estimates based on E3ME, EDMOD and BALMOD). Notes: EU27+ refers to the 27 EU Member States plus Norway and Switzerland 06/02/2012 Alex Stimpson
  • 3. The Labour Market Outcomes of VET 3How many young VET graduates are there in the EU? Most young adults (25-34 years old) with medium level educational attainment have VET backgrounds (EU, 2009)48% of all young people had a medium level qualification in 2009 And 72% of those were in VET Equivalent to over 23 million 25-34 year olds Source: Cedefop calculations based on Eurostat, EULFS 2009 Ad Hoc Module. 06/02/2012 Alex Stimpson
  • 4. The Labour Market Outcomes of VET 4 Large country differences reflect systems, choice and attractiveness VET system intensity and type (%, 25-34 year old graduates)Source: Cedefop calculations based on Eurostat, EULFS 2009 Ad Hoc Module. Excludes countries where VET type was not reported. 06/02/2012 Alex Stimpson
  • 5. The Labour Market Outcomes of VET 5 Typical pathways for young people in Europe General upper- VET upper-secondary secondary graduates graduates tend to go straight tend to continue studying to the labour market Pathways for 18-24 year olds with medium level education in EU27 in 2009 (ISCED 3 and 4)Note: many young people may study and work at the same time but, following the ILO definition of employment, are primarily recorded as working above. 06/02/2012 Alex Stimpson
  • 6. The Labour Market Outcomes of VET 6Positive labour market outcomes for VET graduatesYoung VET graduates are more likely to be engaged in thelabour market At the medium level: young VET graduates are more likely to be employed… …and less likely to be unemployed than young adults from the general streamSource: Cedefop calculations based on Eurostat, EULFS 2009 Ad Hoc Module. Data: EU27, 2009, excludes current students. 06/02/2012 Alex Stimpson
  • 7. The Labour Market Outcomes of VET 7Employment premium to VET in most EU countries in 2009Difference in employment rates for 25-34 year olds with VET and generalmedium level education (% points)Source: Cedefop calculations based on Eurostat, EULFS 2009 Ad Hoc Module. Excludes current students. 06/02/2012 Alex Stimpson
  • 8. The Labour Market Outcomes of VET 8Young VET graduates move slightly more quickly into jobsLength of time between leaving formal education andstarting the first job (of over 3 months, 25-29 year olds)Source: Cedefop calculations based on Eurostat, EULFS 2009 Ad Hoc Module. Data: EU27 excluding DE, 2009. 06/02/2012 Alex Stimpson
  • 9. The Labour Market Outcomes of VET 9Young VET graduates more likely to find a suitable job matchDuration of the first job (of over 3 months, 25-29 year olds)Source: Cedefop calculations based on Eurostat, EULFS 2009 Ad Hoc Module. Data: EU27 excluding DE, 2009. 06/02/2012 Alex Stimpson
  • 10. The Labour Market Outcomes of VET 10Young general graduates more likely to spend prolongedperiods unemployedCumulative duration of unemployment after leaving formaleducation for the last time (25-29 year olds)Source: Cedefop calculations based on Eurostat, EULFS 2009 Ad Hoc Module. Data: EU27 excluding DE, 2009. 06/02/2012 Alex Stimpson
  • 11. The Labour Market Outcomes of VET 11Meeting labour market needs: VET is loyal to its designOccupations for medium level graduates (EU27+, employed 15-34 year olds)Source: Cedefop calculations based on Eurostat, EULFS 2009 Ad Hoc Module. Excludes NO. 06/02/2012 Alex Stimpson
  • 12. The Labour Market Outcomes of VET 12 But replacement and re-training will be necessary over time Future job opportunities: net change and replacement demand by 2020 (EU27+, 15-64 years)Source: Cedefop (IER estimates based on E3ME, EDMOD and BALMOD).Notes: EU27+ refers to the 27 EU Member States plus Norway and Switzerland 06/02/2012 Alex Stimpson
  • 13. The Labour Market Outcomes of VET 13 Thank you for your attention Publication forthcoming in 2012 www.cedefop.europa.eu alex.stimpson@cedefop.europa.eu 06/02/2012 Alex Stimpson