Post–Real Time Post-Earthquake Impact Assessment and Response Prioritization - David Wald

0 views
749 views

Published on

2013 EERI Annual Meeting Session: Technology for Post-Earthquake Assessment and Monitoring

0 Comments
4 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Views
Total views
0
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
0
Comments
0
Likes
4
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide
  • SHAKEMAP IS BASIC INPUTSHAKECAST FOR SITE-SPECIFIC estimates of loss/inspection priority at a PORTFOLIO of facilities/buildings& PAGER FOR GLOBAL VIEW (Literally and figurative)
  • For example, we are working on producing charts of which structure are likely to dominate response and recovery, and which culprit buildings will be the source of fatalities & USAR.We are currently working with funding from USAID to provide USAR what they need in terms of structural information. We are working with USAID/OFDA and the LA/Fairfax teams to improve this product.So here we are going to need more building-specific information.
  • ShakeCast is intended more for major utilities and companies, Like Caltrans who have major exposure and need to prioritize response. ShakeCast runs completely in the background, automatically, downloads the ShakeMap, computes the shaking and likelihood of damage at the users’ facilities and sends out notifications to the users response team.
  • Predictor variables, Explanatory variables.
  • Predictor variables, Explanatory variables.
  • In the grand scheme of things, integrating independent smart-sensor, facility specific data is possible with ShakeCast, but we’ve kept it rather simple due to the scope of the problem.SC can take independent SGM data and treat those observations as better quality than a ShakeMap, but as an entity providing ShakeMap, it’s even more beneficial if site observations are also incorporated into ShakeMap for the greater good. It’s also easier to set the standards and data flow this way.
  • Oakland, CA, ShakeCast Workshop
  • Doug Wilson, Senior Facilities Engineer, Snohomish County Public Utility District
  • Integrated means, documented and institualionalized in the post-earthquake response environment.
  • Walmart is basically one of the worlds most impressive trucking/shipping companies.
  • Walmart is basically one of the worlds most impressive distribution companies.
  • Primary funding from USGS and these sponsors. Caltrans has been fundamentally generous in promoting the openness of the development made with their funds and use of ShakeCast by any interested partners.
  • Post–Real Time Post-Earthquake Impact Assessment and Response Prioritization - David Wald

    1. 1. David Wald U.S. Geological Survey Golden, Colorado Kuo-Wan Lin & Kishor Jaiswal U.S. Geological Survey Loren Turner Caltrans, Sacramento USGS National Earthquake Information Center, Golden, Colorado Post–Real Time Post-Earthquake Impact Assessment and Response Prioritization
    2. 2.  In-situ monitoring: full-blown, smart sensors  Ground-truthing: expert; aggregated media/social media  Remote sensing: image processed (or crowd-sourced)  Estimating: e.g., ShakeMap  ShakeCast/PAGER/HAZUS  Combinating of all of the above! Post-Earthquake Assessment Strategies
    3. 3.  In-situ monitoring: full-blown, smart sensors  Ground-truthing: expert; aggregated media/social media  Remote sensing: image processed (or crowd-sourced)  Estimating: e.g., ShakeMap  ShakeCast/PAGER/HAZUS  Combining of all of the above! Post-Earthquake Assessment Strategies Multichannel (e.g., USGS@VA Hospitals); wireless, MEMS sensor, GPS, strain meters Radar Interferometry (image changes; ARIA/Sang-ho Yun, this meeting); imagery (Geo-Can/Haiti) 911; news & social media aggregators, DYFI?, disaster forensics (CEDIM), LFE/GEER & others’ recon Fast, automatic, ubiquitous. Rapid; high-quality, research grade, but expensive, state-of-health tools & deployment of sensors limited Latency is an issue; highly variable. High resolution, but quality of interpretation limited but improving. Snap-shots. Incomplete or long latency. Quality & scope of aggregated data maybe insufficient. Approximate. Limited by lack of recordings & info on structure, vulnerability, demographic data.
    4. 4. PAGER (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response) ShakeMap“Did You Feel It?” ShakeCast
    5. 5. PAGER: Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response
    6. 6. 2010 M7.0 Haiti 2010 M8.8 Chile UCB – Unreinforced concrete block masonry & low rise non-ductile concrete frame W or INF – Light timber or steel frame (informal/makeshift type) M – Mud wall construction RM & RM2L – Reinforced masonry (commonly low-rise) and masonry with frames (dual) RS – Rubble stone masonry (hybrid) S2 – Steel frame A – Adobe block PAGER estimates of buildings contributing to casualties Note: color scheme applies to different buildings for Chile & Haiti K. Jaiswal & EERI/WHE (2013)
    7. 7. ShakeCast & Critical Infrastructure EERI Annual Meeting Technology for Post-Earthquake Assessment & Monitoring ShakeCast at Caltrans
    8. 8. ShakeMap Response Regions Mag>3.5 SC NC Utah PNW HI AK AK NV HI AK NV Mag>3.5 Mag>4.0
    9. 9. Italy (INGV) Switzerland Iceland Indonesia (BKMG) ! "#$%"&' ( ) *+$%"&,, - . "/) 0 "1, 23 1&) 3 ) %4"#$%5, 6$748*"&,920 :, 2%5#484$,; ) , 0 ) 4) $7$&$*+",Iran (IIEES) France/Spain (BRGM/IGC) Romania (NIEP) Global ShakeMap (USGS)
    10. 10. ShakeCast input: ShakeMap grid.xml file Values at each lat/long grid cell: Ground motion estimates: • Intensity (MMI) • Peak ground acceleration (PGA) • Peak ground velocity (PGV) • Spectral response at 0.3, 1, 3 sec. Metadata: • Vs30 • Ground motion uncertainty (sigma) Lon Lat PGA PGV MMI SA.3 SA1 SA3 Sigma Vs30
    11. 11. ShakeMap/ShakeCast Flowchart Internet Internet JSON
    12. 12. CommunicationLayer ApplicationAPI Data Analysis API User IT Infrastructure ShakeCast Plugin Plugin Plugin User FragilityFacility User Interface Third-Party Programs (ROVER, Marconi) ShakeMap and Other Earthquake Products ShakeCast Notifications ShakeCast Version 3 System Diagram
    13. 13. ShakeCast Updated User Interface (V3) using Responsive Web Design
    14. 14. Key ShakeCast Products Summary PDF Summary Email Web User Interface
    15. 15. Default or User Defined Damage States Fragility information in look-up tables that contain discrete ground-motion thresholds between damage states HAZUS high-code model building types Can be based on: • Peak ground acceleration (PGA) • Peak ground velocity (PGV) • Spectral response at 0.3, 1, 3 sec. • Intensity (MMI)
    16. 16. 24 ShakeCast Threshold Caltrans Bridge Fragilities Basöz and Mander/HAZUS
    17. 17. CommunicationLayer ApplicationAPI Data Analysis API User IT Infrastructure ShakeCast Plugin Plugin Plugin User FragilityFacility User Interface Third-Party Programs (ROVER, Marconi) ShakeMap and Other Earthquake Products ShakeCast Notifications
    18. 18. ShakeCast Probabilistic Fragility Analysis Damage Function Probabilistic Fragility Analysis The probability of each structural damage state for a given facility is expressed as a function of IM: ds = 0 1 <= ds <= n-1 ds = n where is the probability of structural damage state ds for a given IM. Facility damage functions are in the form of lognormal fragility curves that relates the probability of being in, or exceeding, a damage state for a given intensity measure parameter. The probability that structural damage reaches or exceeds a specific damage state, ds, for a given intensity measure, IM, is approximated as a cumulative lognormal distribution function: Damage State Probability Accounting Data Variability Best Estimate Damage Levels for Rapid Notification                dsds IM IMdsP  ln 1 ]|[ where is the median value of input intensity measure at which the structure reaches the threshold of the damage state ds, is the standard deviation of nature logarithm for the damage state ds, and is standard cumulative lognormal distribution function. ds ds    IM x dximxfxIMdsDSPIMdsDSP ),;(]|[]|[  where is the probability density function of intensity measure im and is the uncertainty for intensity measure im. ),( imfim  ]|0[1]|[ IMDSPIMdsDSP  ]|1[]|[ IMdsDSPIMdsDSP  ]|[ IMnDSP  ]|[ IMdsDSP  The figure at the bottom is an example showing the output plot of full fragility analysis for a Caltrans bridge using a M7.2 San Andreas ShakeMap scenario. In this example there were three fragility curves defined for the bridge that represent inspection priority: low (filled green curve), medium (filled yellow curve), and high (filled red curve). Thus a total of four damage state probability estimates were produced (histogram) as a result; high inspection priority is the state of highest probability. ShakeCast statistical fragility analysis plot Probability Distribution for the Input Motion Input Motion Lin & Wald (2012) 15WCEE
    19. 19. Caltrans Advanced Bridge Fragility in ShakeCast Caltrans Generation 2 Fragility (g2F) Slide courtesy of L. Turner, Caltrans HAZUS – System Level Fragility (ShakeCast v2)g2F – System Level Fragility (ShakeCast v3) Columns Seats Restrainers BearingsJoints Approach
    20. 20. Implementation of Probabilistic Fragility Analysis • Implement full statistical interpretation of fragility curves. • Implement a component-based fragility analysis framework. • Provide summary for inspection priority for key components.
    21. 21. CommunicationLayer ApplicationAPI Data Analysis API User IT Infrastructure ShakeCast Plugin Plugin Plugin User FragilityFacility User Interface Third-Party Programs (ROVER, Marconi) ShakeMap and Other Earthquake Products ShakeCast Notifications
    22. 22. Rule-based Fragility Criteria Predefined rule set determining the level of concern that ties directly with the users’ post-earthquake response protocol Nuclear ShakeCast Regulatory Criteria (USNRC & IAEA) Regulatory Level “worker” • SL1/OBE Exceedance • SL2/SSE Exceedance • RG 1.166A Exceedance • Magnitude (>5.0) & Distance (<200KM) Check • Felt (M>6.0 & MMI II) Check • Felt on Site (MMI IV) Check Plugin
    23. 23. CommunicationLayer ApplicationAPI Data Analysis API User IT Infrastructure ShakeCast Plugin Plugin Plugin User FragilityFacility User Interface Third-Party Programs (ROVER, Marconi) ShakeMap and Other Earthquake Products ShakeCast Notifications
    24. 24. ShakeMap Atlas • All available data (ground motion, intensity, fault) • Site conditions from topographic-slope proxy • Standard ShakeMap approach to combine observed, estimated shaking • Uses other than PAGER: GEM, loss estimation, secondary hazards, insurance, mitigation, response planning, … ShakeMap Atlas 2.0: >10,000 Earthquakes [1973 – 2011]
    25. 25. 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 1010 10 10 10 20 2020 20 30 30 30 40 40 40 40 50 60 70 80 Secondary Hazards: Landslides Liquefaction USGS Peak Accel. Map (in %g) : Northridge, California JAN 17 1994 12:30:55 AM GMT M 6.7 N34.21 W118.54 Depth: 19.0km ID:199401171230 Map Version 1 Processed Fri Jun 15, 2012 02:39:00 PM MDT INSTRUMENTAL INTENSITY PEAK ACC.(%g) I II−III IV V VI VII VIII IX X+ <0.05 0.3 2.8 6.2 12 22 40 75 >139 Scale based upon Worden et al. (2011) −119˚ −118˚ 33.5˚ 34˚ 34.5˚ 35˚ 0 50 km
    26. 26. 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 45 45 45 45 60 6060 60 60 75 75 75 90 90 105 Secondary Hazards: Landslides USGS Peak Accel. Map (in %g) : Wenchuan, China MAY 12 2008 06:28:01 AM GMT M 7.9 N30.99 E103.36 Depth: 19.0km ID:200805120628 Map Version 1 Processed Mon Jun 18, 2012 02:31:03 PM MDT INSTRUMENTAL INTENSITY PEAK ACC.(%g) I II−III IV V VI VII VIII IX X+ <0.05 0.3 2.8 6.2 12 22 40 75 >139 Scale based upon Worden et al. (2011) 103˚ 104˚ 105˚ 106˚ 30˚ 30.5˚ 31˚ 31.5˚ 32˚ 32.5˚ 33˚ 0 50 km Beichuan, China, 2008 Secondary Hazards Wenchuan, China Mw 7.9. 2008
    27. 27. Liquefaction Candidate Explanatory Variables (Global Application) Landslides Static load Susceptibility Shaking Intensity Slope (from Topog.) [Lithology, Geology] ShakeMap (PGA) [From Zhu et al. (2012)] [From Nowicki et al. (2012) Soil Strength Saturation Shaking Intensity Vs30 (from slope) “CTI or Wetness Index” (PGA)
    28. 28. 2011 Christchurch, New Zealand (M6.3) Logistic Regression for Liquefaction Probability J. Zhu, E.Thompson & L. Baise, Wald, & Knudsen, 2013]
    29. 29. [Courtesy of Sang-Ho Yun, JPL]
    30. 30. Liquefaction InSAR LIDAR Optical GPS Population Landslides Building Damage or Collapse Distribution of high Landslide likelihood Fatality distribution Distribution of high Liquefaction likelihood Peak Acceleration Slope & Geology Finite Fault Vegetation? Landslides? Liquefaction? Ground deformation? Collapse? Inundation? PAGERALERT ? Strategy for Incorporating Remotely-sensed imagery into impact Assessment REPAIR Project: USGS, JPL, & Caltech
    31. 31. • Low-cost instrument at user’s facility, maintained by USGS, • Data processed in real-time, parametric data go directly into ShakeMap, • ShakeCast damage assessment site-specific, based on recordings at user’s facility, • User accessible seismograph. 40 USGS NetQuakes
    32. 32. 41
    33. 33. CommunicationLayer ApplicationAPI Data Analysis API User IT Infrastructure ShakeCast Plugin Plugin Plugin User FragilityFacility User Interface Third-Party Programs (ROVER, Marconi) ShakeMap and Other Earthquake Products ShakeCast Notifications Independent Sensors & Ground Motion recordings
    34. 34. J ShakeCast Seattle Workshop Attendees... January, 2012
    35. 35. Example ShakeCast User Sectors, Users, Uses
    36. 36. NRC ShakeCast: Example Critical Users California Department of Transportation Coverage: California (Uses CISN’s NC & SC ShakeMap) Facilties: ~20,000 overpasses & bridges statewide Fragilites: SA(T), HAZUS capacity-spectrum approach based on very detailed NBI inventory + Caltrans specifications. Usage: Bridge inspection priority after earthquakes. >300 users within Caltrans. Status: Fully Operational Contact: Loren Turner, PE, Senior Bridge Engineer, Sacramento.
    37. 37.  Integrated into Caltran response protocols.  Over 300 current subscribers to ShakeCast: ◦ Structure Maintenance & Investigations inspectors (SM&I) ◦ Earthquake Engineering staff & managers ◦ Members of the Post EQ Investigations Team (PEQIT) ◦ Structures Construction inspectors & managers ◦ Geotechnical Services staff and managers ◦ District Traffic Management Center (TMC) managers & staff ◦ District Emergency Operations Center (EOC) managers ◦ Caltrans Upper Management, including the Director & some Deputy Directors Slide courtesy of L. Turner, Caltrans
    38. 38. ShakeCast identified the only bridge damaged in this event as the top priority for inspection. Slide courtesy of L. Turner, Caltrans
    39. 39. 4 9
    40. 40. Coverage: LAUSD (City of LA: LA Basin/SF/SG Valleys) Facilities: 1096 Schools/Office locations monitored Fragilities: MMI, working on building-specific HAZUS types Usage: Generate priority list for initial support & inspection; prioritize possible schools that can receive displaced students; clarify locations for Red Cross Shelters. Status: Operational; remotely served by Amazon cloud service Contact: Bob Spears, Director Office of Emergency Services Los Angeles Unified School District ShakeCast: Example Critical Users [LAUSD serves 740,000 students; 80,000 employees, $7B annual budget, serves 500,000 lunches per day!]
    41. 41. East Bay Metropolitan Utility District (EBMUD) ShakeCast: Example Critical Users Use Sector: Critical Lifeline Utility, Government Coverage: San Francisco East Bay Area Facilities: hundreds of dams, pipelines, control bldgs., facility structures Fragilities: Custom Usage: Situational awareness Status: Operational Contact: Xavier Arias, Dir. Engineering & Construction EBMUD Pipelines (blue)
    42. 42. Walmart ShakeCast: Example Critical Users Use Sector: Private sector, Commerce, Transportation Coverage: Domestic & global Facilities: 4,200+ retail outlets, 148 dist. centers, 50 corp. facilties, 1.6+ million assoc. in 50 states; as many more globally Fragilities: Intensity-based Usage: Situational awareness for Walmart EO/headquarters; “Taking care of our people, operations, communities” Status: Operational Contact: Lucas McDonald, Emergency Operations Manager
    43. 43. 3 Where We Operate United States •1.6+ Million associates in 50 States •4,200+ Retail Outlets •148 Distribution Centers •50+ Corporate Facilities Slide courtesy of L. McDonald, Walmart
    44. 44. Degenkolb ShakeCast: Example Critical Users Use Sector: Private, Engineering Coverage: Hospitals, various engineered structures Facilities: Hospitals, engineered structures; portfolios Fragilities: SA(T); HAZUS (capacity spectrum); custom Usage: Post earthquake evaluation, inspection, priorities, as a customer service Status: Operational & development Contact: M. Hachem, Associate Principal
    45. 45. – In-situ monitoring: full-blown & smart sensor – Remote sensing: image processed (or crowd-sourced) – Ground-truth: expert; aggregated media/social media – Recorded/modeled: e.g., ShakeMap  ShakeCast/PAGER – A combination of all of the above! Post-Earthquake Assessment Strategies
    46. 46. 56 California Department of Transportation
    47. 47. Sponsors ShakeCast Project Support 5 7 California Department of Transportation U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission International Atomic Energy Agency U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs
    48. 48. • Software: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/shakecast/ • ShakeCast Help Line Shakecast-help@usgs.gov • ShakeCast Community Support Mailing List https://geohazards.usgs.gov/mailman/listinfo/shakecast- users • ShakeCast Wiki https://my.usgs.gov/ShakeCastWiki/ 58 ShakeCast Documents/Support
    49. 49. Acknowledgments ShakeMap • R&D, software support by Bruce Worden (Pasadena) • Operations, support & development by Kuo-Wan Lin • Operations of ShakeMap by NEIC, CISN, & other ANSS regional networks: USGS, CIT, BKS, UW, UU, UNR, UM, UAF, …) ShakeCast • Development by Kuo-wan Lin, w/ Travis LaWall, Ft. Collins, CO. • User support by Travis LaWall • Loren Turner (& Cliff Roblee), Trans. Engineers, Caltrans • Annie Kammerer, USNRC PAGER • Kishor Jaiswal (USGS/NEIC), Engineering/Loss Model Development • Programming & support, Mike Hearne, Kristin Marano, USGS

    ×