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Post–Real Time Post-Earthquake Impact Assessment and Response Prioritization - David Wald

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2013 EERI Annual Meeting Session: Technology for Post-Earthquake Assessment and Monitoring

2013 EERI Annual Meeting Session: Technology for Post-Earthquake Assessment and Monitoring

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  • SHAKEMAP IS BASIC INPUTSHAKECAST FOR SITE-SPECIFIC estimates of loss/inspection priority at a PORTFOLIO of facilities/buildings& PAGER FOR GLOBAL VIEW (Literally and figurative)
  • For example, we are working on producing charts of which structure are likely to dominate response and recovery, and which culprit buildings will be the source of fatalities & USAR.We are currently working with funding from USAID to provide USAR what they need in terms of structural information. We are working with USAID/OFDA and the LA/Fairfax teams to improve this product.So here we are going to need more building-specific information.
  • ShakeCast is intended more for major utilities and companies, Like Caltrans who have major exposure and need to prioritize response. ShakeCast runs completely in the background, automatically, downloads the ShakeMap, computes the shaking and likelihood of damage at the users’ facilities and sends out notifications to the users response team.
  • Predictor variables, Explanatory variables.
  • Predictor variables, Explanatory variables.
  • In the grand scheme of things, integrating independent smart-sensor, facility specific data is possible with ShakeCast, but we’ve kept it rather simple due to the scope of the problem.SC can take independent SGM data and treat those observations as better quality than a ShakeMap, but as an entity providing ShakeMap, it’s even more beneficial if site observations are also incorporated into ShakeMap for the greater good. It’s also easier to set the standards and data flow this way.
  • Oakland, CA, ShakeCast Workshop
  • Doug Wilson, Senior Facilities Engineer, Snohomish County Public Utility District
  • Integrated means, documented and institualionalized in the post-earthquake response environment.
  • Walmart is basically one of the worlds most impressive trucking/shipping companies.
  • Walmart is basically one of the worlds most impressive distribution companies.
  • Primary funding from USGS and these sponsors. Caltrans has been fundamentally generous in promoting the openness of the development made with their funds and use of ShakeCast by any interested partners.

Transcript

  • 1. Post–Real Time Post-Earthquake Impact Assessment and Response Prioritization David Wald U.S. Geological Survey Golden, ColoradoKuo-Wan Lin & Kishor Jaiswal U.S. Geological Survey USGS National Earthquake Loren Turner Information Center, Caltrans, Sacramento Golden, Colorado
  • 2. Post-Earthquake Assessment Strategies In-situ monitoring: full-blown, smart sensors Ground-truthing: expert; aggregated media/social media Remote sensing: image processed (or crowd-sourced) Estimating: e.g., ShakeMap  ShakeCast/PAGER/HAZUS Combinating of all of the above!
  • 3. Post-Earthquake Assessment Strategies In-situ monitoring: full-blown, smart sensors Multichannel (e.g., USGS@VA Hospitals); wireless, MEMS sensor, GPS, strain meters Rapid; high-quality, research grade, but expensive, state-of-health tools & deployment of sensors limited Ground-truthing: expert; aggregated media/social media 911; news & social media aggregators, DYFI?, disaster forensics (CEDIM), LFE/GEER & others’ recon Snap-shots. Incomplete or long latency. Quality & scope of aggregated data maybe insufficient. Remote sensing: image processed (or crowd-sourced) Radar Interferometry (image changes; ARIA/Sang-ho Yun, this meeting); imagery (Geo-Can/Haiti) Latency is an issue; highly variable. High resolution, but quality of interpretation limited but improving. Estimating: e.g., ShakeMap  ShakeCast/PAGER/HAZUS Fast, automatic, ubiquitous. Approximate. Limited by lack of recordings & info on structure, vulnerability, demographic data. Combining of all of the above!
  • 4. ShakeCast PAGER (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response)“Did You Feel It?” ShakeMap
  • 5. PAGER:PromptAssessment ofGlobalEarthquakesfor Response
  • 6. PAGER estimates of buildings contributing to casualties2010 M8.8 Chile RM & RM2L – Reinforced masonry (commonly low-rise) and masonry with frames (dual) RS – Rubble stone masonry (hybrid) S2 – Steel frame A – Adobe block K. Jaiswal & EERI/WHE (2013)2010 M7.0 Haiti UCB – Unreinforced concrete block masonry & low rise non-ductile concrete frame W or INF – Light timber or steel frame (informal/makeshift type) M – Mud wall construction Note: color scheme applies to different buildings for Chile & Haiti
  • 7. ShakeCast & Critical Infrastructure ShakeCast at Caltrans EERI Annual Meeting Technology for Post-Earthquake Assessment & Monitoring
  • 8. ShakeMap Response Regions AKMag>3.5 AKMag>4.0 PNW HI NV Utah Mag>3.5 NC HI AK NV SC
  • 9. ! "#$%"&( ) *+ ,, $%"&- . "/) 0 "1, France/Spain (BRGM/IGC) 6$748*"& 2 :, ,9 02 1& 3 ) %4"#$%5, 3 ) 2 %5#484$,; ) , Iran (IIEES) 0 ) 4) $7$& ", $*+ Italy (INGV) Global ShakeMap Iceland (USGS) Romania (NIEP) Indonesia (BKMG) Switzerland
  • 10. ShakeCast input: ShakeMap grid.xml file Values at each lat/long grid cell: Ground motion estimates: • Intensity (MMI) • Peak ground acceleration (PGA) • Peak ground velocity (PGV) • Spectral response at 0.3, 1, 3 sec. Metadata:Lon Lat PGA PGV MMI SA.3 SA1 SA3 Sigma Vs30 • Vs30 • Ground motion uncertainty (sigma)
  • 11. ShakeMap/ShakeCast Flowchart Internet JSON Internet
  • 12. ShakeCast Version 3 System Diagram Plugin Plugin Plugin Data Analysis API ShakeMap andOther Earthquake User Interface Products Communication Layer ShakeCast Application API User Facility Fragility Third-Party ShakeCast Programs Notifications (ROVER, Marconi) User IT Infrastructure
  • 13. ShakeCast Updated User Interface (V3)
  • 14. Key ShakeCast Products
  • 15. Default or User Defined Damage States Can be based on: • Peak ground acceleration (PGA) • Peak ground velocity (PGV) • Spectral response at 0.3, 1, 3 sec. • Intensity (MMI) HAZUS high-code model building types
  • 16. Caltrans Bridge Fragilities ShakeCast Threshold24 Basöz and Mander/HAZUS
  • 17. Plugin Plugin Plugin Data Analysis API ShakeMap andOther Earthquake User Interface Products Communication Layer ShakeCast Application API User Facility Fragility Third-Party ShakeCast Programs Notifications (ROVER, Marconi) User IT Infrastructure
  • 18. ShakeCast Probabilistic Fragility Analysis Damage Function Damage State Probability Probabilistic Fragility AnalysisFacility damage functions are in the form of lognormal The probability of each structural damage state for a The figure at the bottom is an example showing thefragility curves that relates the probability of being given facility is expressed as a function of IM: output plot of full fragility analysis for a Caltrans bridgein, or exceeding, a damage state for a given intensity using a M7.2 San Andreas ShakeMap scenario. In thismeasure parameter. The probability that structural P[ DS ds | IM ] 1 P[ DS 0 | IM ] ds = 0 example there were three fragility curves defined for thedamage reaches or exceeds a specific damage bridge that represent inspection priority: low (filled greenstate, ds, for a given intensity measure, IM, is P[ DS ds | IM ] P[ DS ds 1 | IM ] 1 <= ds <= n-1 curve), medium (filled yellow curve), and high (filled redapproximated as a cumulative lognormal distribution curve). Thus a total of four damage state probabilityfunction: P[ DS n | IM ] ds = n estimates were produced (histogram) as a result; high inspection priority is the state of highest probability. 1 IM where P[ds | IM ] ln ds ds P[ DS ds | IM ] is the probability of structural damage state ds for a given IM. Best Estimate Damage Levels for Rapid Notificationwhere ds is the median value of input intensity measureat which the structure reaches the threshold of thedamage state ds, ds is the standard deviation of nature logarithm forthe damage state ds, and is standard cumulative lognormal distributionfunction.Accounting Data VariabilityP[ DS ds | IM ] P[ DS ds | IM x] f x ( x; im, )dx IM Probability Distributionwhere for the Input Motion f im (im, ) is the probability density function ofintensity measure im and is the uncertainty for intensity measure im. Input MotionLin & Wald (2012) 15WCEE ShakeCast statistical fragility analysis plot
  • 19. Caltrans Advanced Bridge Fragility in ShakeCastCaltrans Generation 2 Fragility (g2F) HAZUS – System Level g2F – System Level Fragility (ShakeCast v2) Fragility (ShakeCast v3) Approach Joints Bearings Seats Columns Restrainers Slide courtesy of L. Turner, Caltrans
  • 20. Implementation of Probabilistic Fragility Analysis• Implement full statistical interpretation of fragility curves.• Implement a component-based fragility analysis framework.• Provide summary for inspection priority for key components.
  • 21. Plugin Plugin Plugin Data Analysis API ShakeMap andOther Earthquake User Interface Products Communication Layer ShakeCast Application API User Facility Fragility Third-Party ShakeCast Programs Notifications (ROVER, Marconi) User IT Infrastructure
  • 22. Rule-based Predefined rule set determining the level Fragility Criteria of concern that ties directly with the users’ post-earthquake response protocol • • • Plugin • • • Nuclear ShakeCast Regulatory Criteria (USNRC & IAEA)
  • 23. Plugin Plugin Plugin Data Analysis API ShakeMap andOther Earthquake User Interface Products Communication Layer ShakeCast Application API User Facility Fragility Third-Party ShakeCast Programs Notifications (ROVER, Marconi) User IT Infrastructure
  • 24. ShakeMap Atlas 2.0: ShakeMap Atlas>10,000 Earthquakes [1973 – 2011]• All available data (ground motion, intensity, fault)• Site conditions from topographic-slope proxy• Standard ShakeMap approach to combine observed, estimated shaking• Uses other than PAGER: GEM, loss estimation, secondary hazards, insurance, mitigation, response planning, …
  • 25. USGS Peak Accel. Map (in %g) : Northridge, California JAN 17 1994 12:30:55 AM GMT M 6.7 N34.21 W118.54 Depth: 19.0km ID:199401171230 35˚ 10 10 0 1 10 10 10 10 10 30 20 10 20 1034.5˚ 40 40 10 80 30 10 40 50 60 70 10 20 20 34˚ 30 40 Secondary Hazards: 10 10 Landslides 10 Liquefaction33.5˚ km 0 50 −119˚ −118˚ Map Version 1 Processed Fri Jun 15, 2012 02:39:00 PM MDT PEAK ACC.(%g) <0.05 0.3 2.8 6.2 12 22 40 75 >139 INSTRUMENTAL INTENSITY I II−III IV V VI VII VIII IX X+ Scale based upon Worden et al. (2011)
  • 26. USGS Peak Accel. Map (in %g) : Wenchuan, China MAY 12 2008 06:28:01 AM GMT M 7.9 N30.99 E103.36 Depth: 19.0km ID:200805120628 Secondary Hazards 15 33˚ 30 Wenchuan, China 15 Mw 7.9. 2008 60 45 3032.5˚ 60 75 15 30 15 15 32˚ 15 15 90 75 Beichuan, China, 2008 30 15 45 45 15 6031.5˚ 30 75 15 15 60 31˚ 90 60 10 30 5 30 15 4530.5˚ 15 15 km 15 30˚ 15 Secondary Hazards: 15 0 50 Landslides 103˚ 104˚ 105˚ 106˚ Map Version 1 Processed Mon Jun 18, 2012 02:31:03 PM MDT PEAK ACC.(%g) <0.05 0.3 2.8 6.2 12 22 40 75 >139 INSTRUMENTAL INTENSITY I II−III IV V VI VII VIII IX X+ Scale based upon Worden et al. (2011)
  • 27. Candidate Explanatory Variables (Global Application)Landslides Static load Susceptibility Shaking Intensity Slope (from Topog.) [Lithology, Geology] ShakeMap (PGA)Liquefaction [From Nowicki et al. (2012) Soil Strength Saturation Shaking Intensity Vs30 (from slope) “CTI or Wetness Index” (PGA) [From Zhu et al. (2012)]
  • 28. Logistic Regression for Liquefaction Probability 2011 Christchurch, New Zealand (M6.3) J. Zhu, E.Thompson & L. Baise, Wald, & Knudsen, 2013]
  • 29. [Courtesy of Sang-Ho Yun, JPL]
  • 30. Strategy for Incorporating REPAIR Project: USGS, JPL, & CaltechRemotely-sensed imagery Peak Accelerationinto impact Assessment Distribution of high Finite Fault Landslide likelihood InSAR Landslides LIDAR ? Population Distribution of high Liquefaction likelihood GPS LiquefactionPAGER ALERT Optical Vegetation? Fatality distribution Landslides? Slope & Geology Liquefaction? Building Ground Damage or deformation? Collapse Collapse? Inundation?
  • 31. USGS NetQuakes• Low-cost instrument at user’s facility, maintained by USGS,• Data processed in real-time, parametric data go directly into ShakeMap,• ShakeCast damage assessment site-specific, based on recordings at user’s facility,• User accessible seismograph. 40
  • 32. 41
  • 33. Independent Sensors & Ground Motion recordings Plugin Plugin Plugin Data Analysis API ShakeMap andOther Earthquake User Interface Products Communication Layer ShakeCast Application API User Facility Fragility Third-Party ShakeCast Programs Notifications (ROVER, Marconi) User IT Infrastructure
  • 34. ShakeCast Seattle Workshop Attendees... January, 2012 J
  • 35. Example ShakeCast User Sectors, Users, Uses
  • 36. ShakeCast: Example Critical UsersNRC California Department of Transportation Coverage: California (Uses CISN’s NC & SC ShakeMap) Facilties: ~20,000 overpasses & bridges statewide Fragilites: SA(T), HAZUS capacity-spectrum approach based on very detailed NBI inventory + Caltrans specifications. Usage: Bridge inspection priority after earthquakes. >300 users within Caltrans. Status: Fully Operational Contact: Loren Turner, PE, Senior Bridge Engineer, Sacramento.
  • 37.  Integrated into Caltran response protocols. Over 300 current subscribers to ShakeCast: ◦ Structure Maintenance & Investigations inspectors (SM&I) ◦ Earthquake Engineering staff & managers ◦ Members of the Post EQ Investigations Team (PEQIT) ◦ Structures Construction inspectors & managers ◦ Geotechnical Services staff and managers ◦ District Traffic Management Center (TMC) managers & staff ◦ District Emergency Operations Center (EOC) managers ◦ Caltrans Upper Management, including the Director & some Deputy Directors Slide courtesy of L. Turner, Caltrans
  • 38. Slide courtesy of L. Turner, CaltransShakeCast identified theonly bridge damaged inthis event as the toppriority for inspection.
  • 39. 49
  • 40. ShakeCast: Example Critical Users Los Angeles Unified School District Coverage: LAUSD (City of LA: LA Basin/SF/SG Valleys) Facilities: 1096 Schools/Office locations monitored Fragilities: MMI, working on building-specific HAZUS types Usage: Generate priority list for initial support & inspection; prioritize possible schools that can receive displaced students; clarify locations for Red Cross Shelters. [LAUSD serves 740,000 students; 80,000 employees, $7B annual budget, serves 500,000 lunches per day!] Status: Operational; remotely served by Amazon cloud service Contact: Bob Spears, Director Office of Emergency Services
  • 41. ShakeCast: Example Critical Users East Bay Metropolitan Utility District (EBMUD)Use Sector: Critical Lifeline Utility, GovernmentCoverage: San Francisco East Bay AreaFacilities: hundreds of dams, pipelines, control bldgs., facility structuresFragilities: CustomUsage: Situational awarenessStatus: OperationalContact: Xavier Arias, EBMUD Dir. Engineering & Construction Pipelines (blue)
  • 42. ShakeCast: Example Critical Users WalmartUse Sector: Private sector, Commerce, TransportationCoverage: Domestic & globalFacilities: 4,200+ retail outlets, 148 dist. centers, 50 corp. facilties, 1.6+ million assoc. in 50 states; as many more globallyFragilities: Intensity-basedUsage: Situational awareness for Walmart EO/headquarters; “Taking care of our people, operations, communities”Status: OperationalContact: Lucas McDonald, Emergency Operations Manager
  • 43. Slide courtesy of L. McDonald, Walmart Where We Operate United States•1.6+ Million associates in 50 States•4,200+ Retail Outlets•148 Distribution Centers•50+ Corporate Facilities 3
  • 44. ShakeCast: Example Critical Users DegenkolbUse Sector: Private, EngineeringCoverage: Hospitals, various engineered structuresFacilities: Hospitals, engineered structures; portfoliosFragilities: SA(T); HAZUS (capacity spectrum); customUsage: Post earthquake evaluation, inspection, priorities, as a customer serviceStatus: Operational & developmentContact: M. Hachem, Associate Principal
  • 45. Post-Earthquake Assessment Strategies– In-situ monitoring: full-blown & smart sensor– Remote sensing: image processed (or crowd-sourced)– Ground-truth: expert; aggregated media/social media– Recorded/modeled: e.g., ShakeMap  ShakeCast/PAGER– A combination of all of the above!
  • 46. California Department of Transportation 56
  • 47. ShakeCast Project SupportSponsors California Department of Transportation U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission International Atomic Energy Agency U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs 5 7
  • 48. ShakeCast Documents/Support• Software: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/shakecast/• ShakeCast Help Line Shakecast-help@usgs.gov• ShakeCast Community Support Mailing List https://geohazards.usgs.gov/mailman/listinfo/shakecast- users• ShakeCast Wiki https://my.usgs.gov/ShakeCastWiki/58
  • 49. AcknowledgmentsShakeMap • R&D, software support by Bruce Worden (Pasadena) • Operations, support & development by Kuo-Wan Lin • Operations of ShakeMap by NEIC, CISN, & other ANSS regional networks: USGS, CIT, BKS, UW, UU, UNR, UM, UAF, …)ShakeCast • Development by Kuo-wan Lin, w/ Travis LaWall, Ft. Collins, CO. • User support by Travis LaWall • Loren Turner (& Cliff Roblee), Trans. Engineers, Caltrans • Annie Kammerer, USNRCPAGER • Kishor Jaiswal (USGS/NEIC), Engineering/Loss Model Development • Programming & support, Mike Hearne, Kristin Marano, USGS