VOICE OF FUTURE GENERATIONSInternational Reactions to theGerman Transition andInternational Best Practices
AGENDA            How was the German energy transition            received internationally?            What other countrie...
KEY ELEMENTS OF THE GERMAN ENERGY TRANSITION                                                            Energy            ...
REACTIONS TO GERMANY‗S ENERGY TRANSITION• This Energiewende is being watched very closely. If it works in Germany, it  wil...
How was the German energy transition            received internationally?            What other countries provide best pra...
GERMANY IS NOT ALONE WITH PHASING OUT               NUCLEAR POWEREurope    – Ireland, Denmark, Austria, and Norway had dis...
RE SHARES: TOP FIVE COUNTRIESSource: Global StatusReport 2012                             VOICE OF FUTURE GENERATIONS     ...
AMBITIOUS TARGET SETTING – A KEY POLICY• Countries with a 100% RE target       – Denmark: 100% RE by 2050 in power, heatin...
UK - BEST PRACTICE FOR ENERGY TRANSITION?         Change of Policy led to substantial increase of RE share                ...
FITS ENABLE PARTICIPATION                                                   “It [FiTs] is evidently acting as a connecting...
ONTARIO - BEST PRACTICE FOR ENERGY              TRANSITION? robust regime for encouraging renewable electricity generatio...
AGENDA            How was the German energy transition            received internationally?            What other countrie...
POLICY INSTRUMENTS -              REGULATIONS AND INCENTIVES ?           Type of instrument   Formal            Market    ...
POLICIES ARE THE DRIVING FORCE•    118 countries had renewable energy targets in place (by early 2012)      – more than ha...
Usual obstacles to progress at the renewable energy sector       Costs and pricing        distortion from subsidies for fo...
Feed in tariffs in 1995Source: IFOK/REN 21                         VOICE OF FUTURE GENERATIONS
Feed in tariffs in 2000Source: IFOK/REN 21                            VOICE OF FUTURE GENERATIONS
Feed in tariffs in 2010Source: IFOK/REN 21                         VOICE OF FUTURE GENERATIONS
Notwendige Politische Maßnahmen für die Energiewende          Needed political measures for the energy transformation     ...
Thomas Edison 1920:                              ―We are like tenant farmers                              chopping down th...
GLOBAL MARKET AND INDUSTRY OVERVIEW• Global final energy consumption supplied by renewable  energy in 2010: 16.7%   – 8.2%...
INVESTMENT FLOWS                                         Global new investment in                                         ...
GROWTH RATES BY TECHNOLOGYSource: Global StatusReport 2012                            VOICE OF FUTURE GENERATIONS      26 ...
100% RE Scenarios•   Germany Federal Environment Agency: 100% RE in Germany by 2050•   Greenpeace: 100% RE in Germany by 2...
The WFC builds its work on the expertise and networks of Councillorsworldwide                              The Council con...
The WFC working process to achieve our      objectives              Academic research, sufficiently understanding the chal...
The five interacting programs of the WFC                                      1                     Peace and            C...
Department Climate Energy                        VOICE OF FUTURE GENERATIONS26 September 2012                             ...
Decentralization – sharing benefits           VOICE OF FUTURE GENERATIONS
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German Energy Transition Workshop-Anna Leidreiter from the World Future Council

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German Energy Transition Workshop-Anna Leidreiter from the World Future Council

  1. 1. VOICE OF FUTURE GENERATIONSInternational Reactions to theGerman Transition andInternational Best Practices
  2. 2. AGENDA How was the German energy transition received internationally? What other countries provide best practices for an energy transition? How does the international policy landscape for RE look like? VOICE OF FUTURE GENERATIONS26 September 2012 2
  3. 3. KEY ELEMENTS OF THE GERMAN ENERGY TRANSITION Energy Transition1) Nuclear phase out2) RE targets (RE energy: 60% by 2050)3) Diversification of energy market4) Decentralisation of energy production5) Plant is where energy source is VOICE OF FUTURE GENERATIONS26 September 2012 3
  4. 4. REACTIONS TO GERMANY‗S ENERGY TRANSITION• This Energiewende is being watched very closely. If it works in Germany, it will be a template for other countries.• "The German Energy Experiment"• Key questions raised: Can a heavily industrialized country power its economy with wind turbines and solar panels? Who should pay this in times of financial crisis?• Only little attention for underlying factors like decentralization/ empowerment aspects VOICE OF FUTURE GENERATIONS 26 September 2012 4
  5. 5. How was the German energy transition received internationally? What other countries provide best practices for an energy transition? How does the international policy landscape for RE look like? VOICE OF FUTURE GENERATIONS26 September 2012 5
  6. 6. GERMANY IS NOT ALONE WITH PHASING OUT NUCLEAR POWEREurope – Ireland, Denmark, Austria, and Norway had dismissed the nuclear option years ago – Sweden, Switzerland, the Netherlands, and Belgium are in the process of phasing out nuclear power. – Spain has banned the construction of new reactors. – Frances government (14th Sept 2012) begins a review one of the worlds most nuclear-dependent countrys energy policy, strongly in support of its small and ailing renewables sector in an effort to boost local jobs and growth.• Other remarkable country’s decisions – Japan (14th Sept 2012): "We will use all possible political resources to realize the goal of having no nuclear plants operating by the end of the 2030s," the report from the governments energy and environmental committee said. VOICE OF FUTURE GENERATIONS 26 September 2012 6
  7. 7. RE SHARES: TOP FIVE COUNTRIESSource: Global StatusReport 2012 VOICE OF FUTURE GENERATIONS 26 September 2012 7
  8. 8. AMBITIOUS TARGET SETTING – A KEY POLICY• Countries with a 100% RE target – Denmark: 100% RE by 2050 in power, heating, and transportation sector – Scotland: 100% RE in power sector by 2020 – Upper Austria: 100% RE in power and heat sectors by 2030• Cities with 100% RE target – Barcelona, Spain - Masdar City, UAE – Munich, Germany - Msheireb Downtown Doha, Qatar – San Francisco, USA (sustainable downtown regeneration project)• Small Island States with 100% RE target – Islands of Tuvalu - Maledives – Cook Islands VOICE OF FUTURE GENERATIONS26 September 2012 8
  9. 9. UK - BEST PRACTICE FOR ENERGY TRANSITION? Change of Policy led to substantial increase of RE share Before April 2010 : Quota obligations based on Tradable Green Certificates After April 2010 Feed-in tariffs Source: The UK FiT: A User Survey Miguel Mendonça, 2011 VOICE OF FUTURE GENERATIONS26 September 2012 9
  10. 10. FITS ENABLE PARTICIPATION “It [FiTs] is evidently acting as a connecting policy – linking people, policy, energy and economy.“Source: Co-operative renewable energy in the UK, Miguel Mendonca: The UK FiT: A User Survey, 2011Rebecca Willis and Jenny Willis 2012 VOICE OF FUTURE GENERATIONS 26 September 2012 10
  11. 11. ONTARIO - BEST PRACTICE FOR ENERGY TRANSITION? robust regime for encouraging renewable electricity generation while maximizing the local economic benefits of this new power generation, because of the following elements: domestic community project price Special program for content provision adders small scale projects 50,000 jobs (by 2018) and dozens of new manufacturing plants VOICE OF FUTURE GENERATIONS26 September 2012 11
  12. 12. AGENDA How was the German energy transition received internationally? What other countries provide best practices for an energy transition? How does the international policy landscape for RE look like? VOICE OF FUTURE GENERATIONS26 September 2012 12
  13. 13. POLICY INSTRUMENTS - REGULATIONS AND INCENTIVES ? Type of instrument Formal Market Informal Organisational Feed-in tariffs (can Regulation also be seen as Advice Public enterprises regulatory) Information Public Private Self-regulation User charges Examples in the provision Partnerships (PPP) field of Regional Network between renewable cities to share Climate and development Congestion charge renewable energy energy agency energy plans strategies Environment Unit for climate Awareness raising impact Land use taxes change and energy campaign assessment in mayor’s office Based on Howlett (2009) VOICE OF FUTURE GENERATIONS26 September 2012 13
  14. 14. POLICIES ARE THE DRIVING FORCE• 118 countries had renewable energy targets in place (by early 2012) – more than half are developing countries• Most common type of support policy: Renewable power generation policies: at least 109 countries (by early 2012)• Feed-in-tariffs (FITs) and renewable portfolio standards (RPS) are the most commonly used policies• At least 19 countries have specific renewable heating/cooling targets in place and at least 17 countries and states had obligations/mandates to promote renewable heat. (frontrunner Europe)• Lack of long-term policy certainty and stability result in setbacks Source: Global Status Report 2012 VOICE OF FUTURE GENERATIONS26 September 2012 14
  15. 15. Usual obstacles to progress at the renewable energy sector Costs and pricing distortion from subsidies for fossil fuels; nuclear energy; externalities; high initial capital costs; high taxes on renewable energy equipment Legal and regulatory No legal framework for independent power producers; planning restrictions (long lead times); lack of coordination amongst authorities; spatial planning, grid access (grid capacity, grid extension plans) Market performance lack of access to credit; perceived technology uncertainty and risk; lack of technical or commercial skills and information VOICE OF FUTURE GENERATIONS15
  16. 16. Feed in tariffs in 1995Source: IFOK/REN 21 VOICE OF FUTURE GENERATIONS
  17. 17. Feed in tariffs in 2000Source: IFOK/REN 21 VOICE OF FUTURE GENERATIONS
  18. 18. Feed in tariffs in 2010Source: IFOK/REN 21 VOICE OF FUTURE GENERATIONS
  19. 19. Notwendige Politische Maßnahmen für die Energiewende Needed political measures for the energy transformation Strengthen Implement regulatory renewable heating frameworks sector consequently Research and Binding target setting Development on regional,(and its political support) national and international level Abolishment of all Acceleration ofsubsidies for fossil fuel administrative processes (and nuclear) and infrastructure measures VOICE OF FUTURE GENERATIONS
  20. 20. Thomas Edison 1920: ―We are like tenant farmers chopping down the fence around our house for fuel when we should be using Natures inexhaustible sources of energy — sun, wind and tide. ... Id put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we dont have to wait until oil and coal run out before we tackle that‖VOICE OF FUTURE GENERATIONS
  21. 21. GLOBAL MARKET AND INDUSTRY OVERVIEW• Global final energy consumption supplied by renewable energy in 2010: 16.7% – 8.2%: modern renewable energy (counting hydropower, wind, solar, geothermal, biofuels and modern biomass) – 8.5 % traditional biomass (primarily for cooking and heating in rural areas of developing countries)• Continued growth in equipment manufacturing, sales, and installation across most technologies during 2011• Globally there are more than 5 million jobs in renewable energy industriesSource: Global Status Report 2012 VOICE OF FUTURE GENERATIONS26 September 2012 21
  22. 22. INVESTMENT FLOWS Global new investment in renewable energy increased 17% in 2011, to a new record of USD 257 billion. = more than six times the figure for 2004 = 94% more than the total in 2007 VOICE OF FUTURE GENERATIONS26 September 2012 22
  23. 23. GROWTH RATES BY TECHNOLOGYSource: Global StatusReport 2012 VOICE OF FUTURE GENERATIONS 26 September 2012 23
  24. 24. 100% RE Scenarios• Germany Federal Environment Agency: 100% RE in Germany by 2050• Greenpeace: 100% RE in Germany by 2050• McKinsey: 100% RE in Europe by 2050• PWC: 100% RE in Europe and North America by 2050• European Renewable Energy Council (EREC): 100% RE in Europe by 2050• Jacobson/ Davis, Stanford University: 100% RE in the world by 2030 BUT: political and regulatory challenges Pre-condition: Enabling Policy Framework VOICE OF FUTURE GENERATIONS
  25. 25. The WFC builds its work on the expertise and networks of Councillorsworldwide The Council consists of fifty highly respected personalities represented in governments, civil society, business, science, education, and the arts VOICE OF FUTURE GENERATIONS
  26. 26. The WFC working process to achieve our objectives Academic research, sufficiently understanding the challenges and their interdependency, identification and development of best Step 1 policies to cope efficiently and quickly with the challenges Awareness raising, making the legislation/politicians and the Step 2 public aware of what needs to be done and how it could be done Political Engagement/Advocacy, educating, consulting/engaging Step 3 legislation/politicians what to implement and how Political Empowerment/Enabling Legislation, developing tools to Step 4 empower legislation/politicians to introduce the policies in question VOICE OF FUTURE GENERATIONS26
  27. 27. The five interacting programs of the WFC 1 Peace and Climate/ Disarmament Energy A world at A world of peace climate 5 stability WFC 2 Principles Future and Values Justice Sustainable A world of Ecosystems justice A world of stewardship Sustainable 4 Economies A world of true 3 wealth VOICE OF FUTURE GENERATIONS27
  28. 28. Department Climate Energy VOICE OF FUTURE GENERATIONS26 September 2012 28
  29. 29. Decentralization – sharing benefits VOICE OF FUTURE GENERATIONS

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