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Presentation Peter A.G. van Bergeijk
 

Presentation Peter A.G. van Bergeijk

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    Presentation Peter A.G. van Bergeijk Presentation Peter A.G. van Bergeijk Presentation Transcript

    • Transatlantic perspectives for global economic recovery In search of congruence in trade interests and export promotion policies Royal Netherlands Embassy, Washington DC, Nov. 30,2010 Session III Export Promotion170160150140130120110100Peter A.G. van BergeijkInternational Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University and Research School forResource Studies for Development (CERES), Utrecht, the NetherlandsBergeijk@iss.nl
    • Three points to make• The Mercantilist flavor distracts• Trade promotion works• Congruence is especially strong in strategies to uphold the multilateral trading system
    • Imports are important• Trade diversion versus trade creation (Missing from Table 9).• Specialization and competition effect
    • Trade promotion works Dataset by economic Impact of economic component diplomacy N=870 Trade Export Import Significant & Significant & negative -2<t<2 positive 11% 7% Exports only 34 331 343 5% 47% 48% 82% Imports or trade 39 123 0% 24% 76%12/3/2010 Bergeijk 4
    • Something is missingNot completing the Doha round
    • Multilateral trade negotiations (duration and number of countries) 120 Ddoha, predicted 100 Uruguay 80 Doha, present months) Duration (months Tokyo 60 40 Kennedy 20 Dillon Geneva Annecy Torquay Geneva II 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 Number ofSource: Van Marrewijk 2006 countries
    • Shifting shares in world trade1995 Forecast 2025 Per cent Per centEurope 40 Europe 23US 16 China 17Japan 7 US 11China 2 Japan 4Rest of Asia 14 Rest of Asia 15Rest of world 21 Rest of world 30 Herfindahl = 1909 63 Herfindahl = 955 38 C3 = 63 C3 = 5112/3/2010 Bergeijk 7
    • Transatlantic perspectives for global economic recovery In search of congruence in trade interests and export promotion policies Royal Netherlands Embassy, Washington DC, Nov. 30,2010 Session III Export Promotion170160150140130120110100Peter A.G. van BergeijkInternational Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University and Research School forResource Studies for Development (CERES), Utrecht, the NetherlandsBergeijk@iss.nl