Tim Marten Thesis Presentation


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Sustainable Master Plan for the University of Illinois Dudley Smith Farm and Illinois Farm Sustainability Calculator

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Tim Marten Thesis Presentation

  1. 1. Towards Sustainable Agriculture: The Dudley Smith Farm “Revision – New” Thesis Presentation Timothy Marten BLA Funded by: Dudley Smith Initiative
  2. 2. World, we have a problem… Impacts of Industrial Agriculture www.treehugger.com Impacts of Natural Systems •Hypoxia Greenpeace •Soil erosion •Chemical dependency & pollution •Generation of greenhouse gases •Unmanageable and polluting mountains of waste Impacts of Economic Systems •Profits end up in agri-business giants, including fertilizer and pesticide manufacturers •No accounting for environmental costs •Lower rural living standards Impacts of Social Systems •Public Health i.e. Endocrine disruption from pesticides Greenpeace •Rural Exodus •Dying rural communities •Consolidation of powers and means of production
  3. 3. Agriculture at a Crossroads Can we achieve sustainability under our current Industrial paradigms or is a paradigm shift needed? Agriculture must be rebalanced to support our social and economic systems while constraining to ecological limits and functioning as a sustainable agroecosystem. Nevertheless, how can sustainable agroecosystem be developed and assessed? A new paradigm for Midwestern agriculture that balances social support systems, economic viability and environmental limits and preservation is needed.
  4. 4. Fundamental Sustainability Goals The DSF & Project Aim 1. Produces all energy needed for farm operations, hauling, and processing of biofuels or fertilizers. 2. Sequester more carbon then it produced and off set all NOx and Methane Emissions 3. Produces all feeds needed for animal production 4. Import no chemical nutrients 5. Reduce nitrate runoff by 90% from existing conditions and capture at least 50% of nitrate originating from the farm 6. Be economically viable “understand the interactions among the components of the agricultural and community system, including its natural resources, economic base and social elements, to make agriculture sustainable over the long term.”
  5. 5. Process/Methodology
  6. 6. Process/Methodology What are the potential futures and the implications of these futures within bioregion ? How will various scenarios affect the sustainability of the DSF a bioregion? What are the key metrics to measure scenarios/possible futures by? How would the Dudley Smith Farm, as an example, look under various scenarios?
  7. 7. Illinois Farm Sustainability Calculator - IFSC Devloped Peter McAvoy, Tim Marten & Aaron Petri IFSC and Excel Based Agroecosystem Model • 169 Sheets: 65 interface sheets & 104 calculation sheets • 69 Crops: Grains, vegetables & forages • 17 Animal Species: Full life cycle representation, nutrition w/over 100 feeds and animal housing • Incorporates renewable and liquid fuel energy production • Assessments and Balances • Energy • Nutrients • Greenhouse gases • Crops/Feed Additions to the IFSC open source architecture for this project • Orchard crops • Economic assessment and balance
  8. 8. Dudley Smith Farm Baseline IFSC Balance
  9. 9. Design Intent Create a agroecosystem where variety of scales of learning and research can be fostered. This is made possible with a hierarchies of farm type and scales. Where new and old hands can learn the opportunities and issues of farming with a new paradigm and adapted farming systems.
  10. 10. Buildings & Non Ag Other, 1.8% Miscanthus Vegi Fields, 19.6% 17.2% Food Forest 9.8% Orchard 4.9% Pasture ,Hay & Buffers 46.6% Organic 10 Acre Edge Farm Traditional Compatible with suburban edge Produces mix of perennial and annual cropping systems Pasture/farm can support small % Per Dollar of Gross Income ruminant or poultry population
  11. 11. Dudley Smith 10 Acre Farm IFSC Balance
  12. 12. Non Ag Other Wetlands 2.5% 4.4% Miscanthus Vegi Fields 5.0% 15.6% Food Forest Row Crops 5.6% 20.0% Orchard 6.9% Pasture, Hay Buffers 40.0% Organic 40 Acre Starter Farm Traditional Lower capital equipment costs Supports stable ruminant heard Focus on annual produce crops and pasture % Per Dollar of Gross Income 1-2 Fulltime employees
  13. 13. Dudley Smith 40 Acre Farm IFSC Balance
  14. 14. Miscanthus Algae Pond Non Ag Other 2.65% 1.11% Food Forest 1.22% Vegi Fields 1.00% Orchard Wetlands 2.77% 1.22% 4.87% Pasture,Hay, Row Crop Buffer 39.82% 45.35% Organic 226 Acre Production Farm Traditional Additional components of course or small grain row crops augmented with beef cattle Energy exporter % Per Dollar of 2-4 Fulltime Employees Gross Income
  15. 15. Dudley Smith 226 Acre Farm IFSC Balance
  16. 16. Impacts and Implications Dudley Smith Farm Illinois Farm Sustainability Sustainable Master Plan Calculator • Creating new novel • Whole systems modeling teaching and research is easy and possible modalities • The time taken to shift a • Engagement in an farms paradigm can be sustainable agricultural reduced future for Midwest • Regional agroecosystem • DSF could become a planning Long Term Environmental Research Center • Grass is greener in these pastures.
  17. 17. Future Work Future Work • Implementation of sustainable farm teaching environment • Additional IFSC capacities • Development of regional sustainable agriculture standards or BMP’s • Regional modeling
  18. 18. FIN “The past is our definition. We may strive, with good reason, to escape it, or to escape what is bad in it, but we will escape it only by adding something better to it.” - Wendell Berry -
  19. 19. Questions Methods Site Plan Stakeholder/Workshop Impacts & Implications IFSC Workshop Metrics Baseline DSF Other IFSC Modeling Design Intent Bioregional Analysis 10 Acre Farm Design & Technology 40 Acre Farm The Farmstead 226 Acre Farm Suitability Analysis
  20. 20. Doubled Energy Cost Scenario: Baseline DSF
  21. 21. Doubled Energy Cost Scenario: 226 Acre Production Farm
  22. 22. True Cost of Energy Scenario : Baseline DSF
  23. 23. True Cost of Energy Scenario : 226 Acre Production Farm
  24. 24. Social Issues Why Metric Goal Rural Decline and aging of Total Increase rural populations Population population Population Urban/Rural sprawl development Better urban Guidelines, Zoning, Legal Interface & interactions with rural Status Zoning suburban fringes interface/zoning Local families control Control of Local control of few acres (land swaps Majority control by locals Farm Base regional base regional agri business) Rural to difference between Closing income Improve Education Urban rural and urban and access gaps Medical and Wages Inequity incomes and access the falling earnings Self 1/3 Increase Self ability from self employment (make up for 1980-current Employment employment in rural earnings losses) communities Opportunities form Opportunity Number of Creation of more advanced educated children and Structure advanced jobs jobs families Creation of new Creation of new Farming Create viable new farms farmers or generational farms or Legacy and farmers inheritances farming options Metrics & Themes
  25. 25. Economic Issues Why Metric Goal Loss of farms & Small Scale Number of small farm increased farm size 67 Reverse current Producers operations with - 96 Dbl size and 50% trends Viability economic viability loss in farms Small Scale difficulties in new Number of small farm Reverse current Producers farm starts and small operations trends Survivability operations Improved access to Rural Economic Relatively few sectors economic sectors for Opportunities employment Limited goods and More value added Goods and services available and # of good and services goods or higher Services Diversity markets for good and produced/provided value good and services services to a region Integration of local Rural to Urban Improved intra rural area into markets Intra regional trade Connections regional trade and market share Opportunities for Environmental farms to earn from Increase per acre Earnings from credit Credits carbon and other income credits Moving subsides form BMP or Farm Management direct payments to EU Management Subsides style management Subsidies Metrics & Themes payments
  26. 26. Environment Issues Why Metric Goal Hypoxia and water Surface Water treatment costs Nitrate and X % Less N and P Quality (Nitrate and Phosphorous rates Phosphorous) Carbon CO2 and N2O From Green House Gas CO2, N20, CH4 neutral/sequester farms, livestock and Emissions Balance less Nitrous Oxide farm operations and Methane Industrial modal require significant Energy Use - More production Farm Energy Use upstream and on farm Production and less use energy inputs Lack of bio diversity Provide habitat and Biodiversity Biodiversity in rural landscape biodiversity capital Farms operate look Lack of BMP or Industrial, Federal like a duck quack like Tile drainage Industrial Regulation (Clean a duck and should be regulation Regulations Water Act) regulated like one Soil Fertility & Healthy Soil = Soil Fertility and Reduced Erosion Conservation Healthy People Management and Soil Building Metrics & Themes
  27. 27. Understanding A Bioregion
  28. 28. Understanding A Bioregion
  29. 29. Average Operator Age in 2002: 50-55% Average Operator Age in 2002: 55-58 Understanding A Bioregion
  30. 30. Farms with less than 10K/yr Sales: 30% Acres of Harvested Cropland as % in farms: 90-93% Understanding A Bioregion
  31. 31. Specific Design & Technology Solutions
  32. 32. Specific Design & Technology Solutions
  33. 33. Specific Design & Technology Solutions
  34. 34. Specific Design & Technology Solutions
  35. 35. The Farmstead
  36. 36. The Farmstead
  37. 37. The Farmstead
  38. 38. Feasibility: Pasture
  39. 39. Feasibility: Row Crops
  40. 40. Feasibility: Wetlands
  41. 41. Feasibility: Development