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  • 1. Automaker Survey Confirms:Aluminum Use at All-Time Highand Set for Significant Increase Brad Soultz Vice President & General Manager, Automotive and Specialty Products Group - North America, Novelis on behalf of The Aluminum Association Aluminum Transportation Group (ATG) www.aluminumintransportation.org 1
  • 2. Defining Who We AreThe Aluminum Association’s Aluminum Transportation Group (ATG) www.aluminumintransportation.org
  • 3. Aluminum Builds a Better Vehicle Mass Better Fuel Reduction Economy Infinitely Reduced Recyclable Emissions Enhanced Improved Performance Safety www.aluminumintransportation.org 3
  • 4. Vehicle Make-Up Is Changing• Two main factors leading automakers to rethink vehicle design – Consumer demand and desire for increased fuel efficiency coupled with a need to continuously improve safety, function and comfort – New, stringent fuel economy standards www.aluminumintransportation.org 4
  • 5. Survey of North AmericanAutomakers by Ducker Worldwide Primary Objective Accurate estimate of 2012 North American light vehicle aluminum content Secondary Objective Estimate “most likely” material mix through 2025 www.aluminumintransportation.org 5
  • 6. 40 Years of Uninterrupted Growth Aluminum Content – Pounds Per Vehicle 600 2012 500 Pounds per Vehicle 343 lbs per vehicle 400 Average increase of 7 lbs per year for 35 years 300 200 100 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 www.aluminumintransportation.org 6Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
  • 7. Aluminum Content in 2012 Wheels 790 Transmissions 785 Cylinder Blocks 636 Cylinder Heads 588 Heat Transfer 516 Nearly 80% of engine blocks Other Engine 371 in 2012 are aluminum Brake Parts 130 Closures 126 Steering Knuckles 115 Record aluminum Intake Manifolds 112 content in 2012: Control Arms & Links 89 Transfer Cases 88 • Engine Blocks Bumpers 70 • Closures Differential Carriers 69 • Bumpers Other Steering 60 • Steering Knuckles Engine Mounts 49 • IP Structures Cradles & Crossmembers 24 IP Structure 23 Drive Shafts & Yokes 14 All Other Compnents 125 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Millions of Pounds www.aluminumintransportation.org 7Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
  • 8. 2009-2012 Aluminum Content Growth Body, Bumper & Closure 58% (over 50% from closures) Crossmembers 19% Suspension 16% Steering 10% Average Increase 5% Wheels & Brakes 3% Transmission & Driveline 3% Engine 3% Heat Transfer 1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Total Pounds www.aluminumintransportation.org 8Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
  • 9. Aluminum Share Expected to Double 100% 8% 11% 90% 16% 80% Percent of Material Mix 70% 42% 38% 30% Aluminum 60% 50% Steel 40% 30% All Other 50% 51% 54% Materials 20% 10% 0% 2008 2015 2025 www.aluminumintransportation.org 9Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
  • 10. Aluminum Forecast Growth Projected to Reach 400 Pounds Per Vehicle by 2015/2016 Aluminum Content – Pounds Per Vehicle 600 2015 2012 400 lbs per vehicle 500 Pounds per Vehicle 343 lbs per vehicle 400 The trend line continues to be supported by 300 new aluminum applications 200 100 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 www.aluminumintransportation.org 10Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
  • 11. New Applications Required to Achieve 2015/2016 Growth Scenario North American Light Vehicle Aluminum Content Increases 25 Pounds per Vehicle 20 Pounds per Vehicle New Applications 11 (Primarily body, bumper 8 15 and closure components) 4 10 12 1 12 10 11 10 5 6 8 5 3 2 3 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 www.aluminumintransportation.org 11Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
  • 12. Average Net Cost of Direct and Indirect Weight Reduction Increased use of aluminum necessary and cost effective in achieving 400 lb weight reduction by 2025 Average Cost of Direct Weight Savings Cost Dollar/Pound Saved Primary $2.00 Secondary ($1.82) Net Cost $0.18Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011 &IBIS 2005 www.aluminumintransportation.org 12
  • 13. Ducker Survey Conclusions • Consumer demand and fuel economy regulations are driving a dramatic increase in aluminum usage – Weight savings from aluminum and AHSS for body parts • Automakers working hard to improve fuel economy and maintain or improve size, function, safety and comfort • Weight reduction with aluminum is a cost effective part of the solution www.aluminumintransportation.org 13Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
  • 14. Ducker Survey Conclusions • By 2025, the average vehicle will get lighter by 400 lbs. – Aluminum and AHSS – Aluminum • Sheet , extrusions • Closures, body-in-white, bumper, and suspension components • Aluminum will grow to 16% of curb weight – 343 pounds in 2012 – 550 pounds in 2025 – Increase of 207 lbs. in 13 years – Industry added 200 lbs. per vehicle from 1990 to 2010 • This is a conservative forecast www.aluminumintransportation.org 14Source: Ducker Worldwide 2011
  • 15. Automaker Survey Confirms:Aluminum Use at All-Time Highand Set for Significant Increase Thank You www.aluminumintransportation.org 15