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2011 apr saewc_pres 2011 apr saewc_pres Presentation Transcript

  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com A Past, Present and Practical Look at the Global Future for Aluminum in Light Vehicles Presented at the 16th CRU World Aluminum Conference 13 -15 June 2011, Rey Juan Carlos, Spain CONFIDENTIAL NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION This report is solely for the use of client personnel. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, or reproduced for distribution outside the client organization without prior written approval from Ducker Worldwide LLC. 1250 Maplelawn Troy Michigan 48084 PH. 248.644.0086 Confidential - © Ducker Worldwide
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com A Past, Present and Practical Look at the Global Future for Aluminum in Light Vehicles Global Shipments of Aluminum for Light Vehicles (Millions of Tons) 25.0 25 All Time Records 20 16.8 15 11.5 10 5.8 5 0 1999 2011 2017 2025 Past Present Current A Practical Forecast Look at the Future Source: Ducker Confidential - © Ducker Worldwide
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com What we study to determine the current and future use of aluminum in Light Vehicles • Global Emission Mandates • Regional Shifts by Vehicle Segment • Changes in Vehicle Footprint • Changes in Vehicle Curb Weight • Changes in the Source for Propulsion • Petrol Engine Displacement Trends • Changes in the Types of Transmissions • Individual OEM material strategies (early adopters) • Aluminum Wheel Penetration • Price of Aluminum relative to steel and Mg • Competitive Material Strategies • Consumer Preferences for Convenience & Safety Moving Average for Oil Prices over the 2011-2020 Timeframe Most important at the present time Confidential - © Ducker Worldwide
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com Global Light Vehicle Emissions Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Some OEMs and the Steel Industry are vehemently opposed to any and all future mandates 34 Country Agreement These agreements and proposals China is not a member of intent are not “Mandates” California is the NA key U.S. Proposal of Intent September 30, 2010 Joint Rulemaking EPA Proposal for Intent on 2017- 2025 CAFE 70 2025 67 Actual or 60 Lowest 50 Value 2006 2030 MPG Highest 40 Value 30 20 55 MPG is a Source: Roland Berger Source: Ducker 10 Likely compromise 0 Confidential - © Ducker Worldwide
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com 2011 Global Light Vehicle Average Price Waterhouse Coopers has created 3 Curb Weight 2.7 segments such as A/B, C/D, D/E, E/F 2.5 2.3 and F/G to give us even finer size Average is 1,500 kg categories for the purpose of detailed 1.9 Metric Tons 2 1.8 analysis. We use ten segments 1.7 based on the PWC segments in our 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.3 work which is based on a combination 1.1 1 of vehicle footprint, curb weight, interior 1 volume and engine displacement by 0.5 geographical region Most analysts underestimate curb weight 0 A A/B B C C/D D D/E E E/F F/G North America typically uses only seven vehicle segments A segment is city cars, B segment is for the cars known as super minis, C segment is for 2011 North American Light Vehicle small family cars, D segment are called Metric Tons Curb Weights large family cars, E segment cars are Maximum 2.8 3 Average is 1,800 kg known as executive cars, F segment is reserved for luxury cars. In North America 2.5 Minimum 1.85 2.0 1.8 this segment includes full frame pickup 2 trucks and SUVs. MPVs or Mimi Vans are 1.26 1.35 1.5 usually attributed to the B, C and D sedan 1 2.4 1.7 1.9 segments on which they are based. The G 1.2 1.3 1.6 0.5 1.1 segment is for very large vehicles with a footprint approaching nine square meters 0 A B C Other D E Full Size Source: Ducker FF FF Confidential - © Ducker Worldwide
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com Where are we today?
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com The Current Global Situation for Aluminum in Light Vehicles 88% of All Aluminum Content is in these Four Vehicle Systems Heat Exchangers Engines Transmissions Wheels Source: Ducker Confidential - © Ducker Worldwide
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com Global Light Vehicle Aluminum Content The high torque Size really does matter @ 300-400 kg gasoline engines of total weight per square meter of and diesel engines footprint. Smaller vehicles weigh pervasive in more per square meter 2011 Kilograms/Vehicle segments E/F and F/G currently use 180 iron engine blocks 164 159 157 160 Average will be 127 kg/vehicle 150 150 140 125 120 107 100 100 89 80 80 60 40 20 0 A A/B B C C/D D D/E E E/F F/E F/G 2.5 Square 9 Square Meters Footprint (wheelbase X width) Meters 400 kg/sq. meter 300 kg/sq. meter Source: Ducker Confidential - © Ducker Worldwide
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com Global Light Vehicle Aluminum Content 2011 Aluminum Content by Global Segment 2.5 Total is 9.6 Million Tons 2.051 of Aluminum Content in the 75 million light vehicles Millions of Tons 2 C and D segments 1.883 to be assembled globally in contain the most 1.458 2011 aluminum in total 1.36 1.5 1.06 1 0.676 0.624 0.5 0.242 0.115 0.036 0 A A/B B C C/D D D/E E F/E E/F F/G Global Vehicle Segment Source: Ducker Confidential - © Ducker Worldwide
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com Global Light Vehicle Aluminum Shipments 2011 Aluminum Required for Global Light Vehicles 87.7 kg 4.95 Million Tons Misc. 66 kg Struct. Heat Trans Primary 43% Trans. Engines Secondary Wheels 57% 6.55 Million Tons Primary Secondary 11.5 Million Tons Overall recovery is 83.5% of Shipments for Secondary is limited by because 80% of the aluminum 75 Million Vehicles. the availability of scrap is castings with only 10% sheet. Steel will ship The recovery for sheet is 67%. Some OEMs maintain our recovery 90 Million tons Source: Ducker estimates are a bit high Confidential - © Ducker Worldwide
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com Global Light Vehicle Aluminum Content Regional Differences 2011Finished Except for diesel blocks, the EEU Kilograms is the leader for auto aluminum 130 kg 152 kg 123 kg 127 kg Per Vehicle All Other 100% 4% 2% 90% 10% Body, Bumper 4% 4% 12% 15% and Closures The hard 80% 8% 10% Steering & to make Steeing and 70% 10% 17% 16% Brakes parts 16% Brakes 60% 16% Suspension 21% 18% 50% 20% 14% Heat Transfer 40% 30% 42% Wheels 20% 34% 38% 37% 10% Transmissions 0% EEU North Japan Global Engines America Source: Ducker Confidential - © Ducker Worldwide
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com Global Light Vehicle Aluminum Content 2011 Aluminum Percent of Curb Weight by Global Segment Average for 2011 will be 8.5% 10% 8.90% 8.90% 9.10% 9% 8.10% 8.30% 8.20% 8.40% The aluminum 8% content in the E/F 8% 6.80% and F/G segments 7% 5.60% is over 150 kg, but 6% the curb weight is 5% over 2,500 kg 4% resulting in a low 3% aluminum percent 2% of curb weight 1% 0% A A/B B C C/D D D/E E E/F F/E F/G The best measure of aluminum industry progress is aluminum’s share of global curb weight Source: Ducker Confidential - © Ducker Worldwide
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com Global Light Vehicle Aluminum Content 40 Years of Uninterrupted Growth for Aluminum Content as a % of curb The average is 3 kg per year or 3.8% CAGR over the 40 years Beginning of Fuel Economy Mandates Source: Ducker Confidential - © Ducker Worldwide
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com What about the Future?
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com The Future for Aluminum in Light Vehicles Suspensions and Steering Brakes Roofs Pickup Truck Ladder Frames Body & Safety Cage Unibody Hoods Doors Subframes Source: Ducker Confidential - © Ducker Worldwide
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com Global Light Vehicle Aluminum Content - History and Forecast - Aluminum percent of Global Curb Weight with Trendline Forecast Business as usual 12.00% 10% 10.00% Aluminum has been below the trend line in the last few years, but should be back 8.00% on the trend line in 2011 8.5% in 2011 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% 1970 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Calendar Year Source: Ducker Confidential - © Ducker Worldwide
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com Global Light Vehicle Aluminum Content - History and Forecast - 12% is possible by 2020 in NA and the EEU, but not worldwide Aluminum percent of 12.00% Global Curb Weight 12% Trend Line Forecasts 10.00% 10% 8.5 % in 2011 8.00% Recent high levels of aluminum 6.00% activity have caused some to suggest we abandon 4.00% the trend line and aim higher 2.00% 0.00% 2020 Calendar Year Source: Ducker Confidential - © Ducker Worldwide
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com Global Light Vehicle Production - History and Forecast - The C Segment is important, Global Segment Growth but D Segment Vehicles 25000000 are critical for Al success We expect 98 million vehicles C Production by Segment to be assembled globally in 2017 20000000 A A/B D B 15000000 C C/D D 10000000 D/E E 5000000 E/F F/G 0 1990 2000 2010 2017 Calendar Year Source: PWC & Ducker Confidential - © Ducker Worldwide
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com Global Light Vehicle Production Change by Segment Mix going forward is favorable to aluminum. The world is not moving completely to small vehicles, at least not yet Segment Volume Percent Increase by 2017 vs. 2011 1.2 Aluminum in the average 2011 vehicle 1 150 164 159 157 Percent Increase 80 kg 107 150 0.8 127 0.6 100 125 89 0.4 0.2 0 Global Segment Source: Ducker Confidential - © Ducker Worldwide
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com 2017 Most Probable Forecast of the Global Aluminum Use for Light Vehicles Shipments for Light Vehicles Millions of Tons Secondary Base Primary Base This is a significant increase, but only 9.3% Vehicle Growth Segment Shift of the 2017 Global Curb Weight of 1,470 kg Increased Penetration New/Recent Applications 16.8 0.85 Shipment Increase by 2017 1 0.5 15% 11.5 3.45 More Vehicles 17% Favorable Mix 4.95 4.95 59% Increased Penetration 9% 6.55 6.55 New Applications 5.3 Million Metric Ton Increase 2011 2017 Source: Ducker Confidential - © Ducker Worldwide
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com Global Light Vehicle Aluminum Content Complete Body Structures - Longer Term Global Forecast - and Bumper Beams Closures Deck Door Outer All these parts require primary Hood Door Outer Fenders Bumpers Source: Ducker Confidential - © Ducker Worldwide
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com Other target parts for widespread global conversion to aluminum Cast Steering Knuckle Front End with Shock Tower Cast Shock Tower These are the most attractive parts for widespread conversion to aluminum in the next fifteen years Complete Stamped Door Structure All these parts require primary Forged Suspension Arm Source: Ducker Confidential - © Ducker Worldwide
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com Global Light Vehicle Aluminum Content Regional penetration analysis and regional vehicle segment analysis are the basis of our long term forecasts Aluminum Penetration Changes for Existing Key Components at their Current Growth Rate 100% 100% New Alloys needed to get blocks to 100% Thermal China & NA are the leaders Conductivity Prevails Japan is the leader Wheels will Struggle to get this high Japan & EEU are leaders Trend lines by region worldwide NA is the leader are available @ 40% www.ducker.com EEU is the leader Hoods are a proxy for all closures except doors Zero 2023 2029 The components that contributed the most to the tremendous growth of aluminum use in light vehicles since 1980 Source: Ducker will plateau over the next 5 to 10 years Confidential - © Ducker Worldwide
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com A Practical Look at Global Content plus Scrap plus Spare Parts 83.5% Providing scrap Recovery Shipments of 25 Million Tons in 2025 is available 50% Primary & 50% Secondary Aluminum 168 kg/v of global content In an OEM peer review, the consensus Total was that our 2025 forecast Total 7.35 may be too conservative. 7.15 The 79% recovery assumption for 2025 could be as low as 75% as even more mill products are required This would require the entire magnesium Aluminum industry to nearly 47 Million triple 2011 Base Shipment More Vehicles Minus 1.25 in size by Growth 2025 Losses to This global forecast is the end result of 55 kg/v Magnesium of several separate regional forecasts Source: Ducker Confidential - © Ducker Worldwide
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com A Past, Present and Practical Look at the Global Future for Aluminum in Light Vehicles Global Aluminum Shipments for Light Vehicles (Millions of Tons) 25.0 Depends 6% CAGR on Scrap 25 1.5 16.8 20 12.5 11.5 Primary 15 7.6 5.8 10 4.9 11 Secondary 2.5 9.2 5 6.6 3.3 0 1999 2011 2017 2025 Calendar Millions of Millions Shipments Content Year Vehicles of Tons kg/v kg/v 1999 54 5.8 107 89 2011 75 11.5 153 127 2017 98 16.8 171 142 2025 122 25 200 168 Source: Ducker Confidential - © Ducker Worldwide
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com Final Comments and Recommendations To achieve a long term (2011-2025) annual growth rate for aluminum of three to four kilograms per light vehicle worldwide and an above average six kilograms per vehicle in North America: 1. The global downstream aluminum supply base will need to invest at least $3.5 billion in new facilities with one billion of that in North America 2. The aluminum industry will need to return to the 1990’s level of auto industry support not just for sheet, but for structural forgings, hydro formed extrusions, high ductility permanent mold castings and vacuum assisted high pressure die castings. New suppliers with names most of us won’t recognize are likely to emerge to fill the void left by the large integrated aluminum companies 3. Global aluminum auto part product development and downstream cost reduction, including ingot casting, will be necessary to help insure success 4. Average oil prices of $100 to $125 per barrel for most of this decade (not to low and not too high). High prices for petrol hurt the vehicle mix for aluminum, particularly for castings, but high prices help drive new applications 5. Mandates of 55 miles per gallon or the equivalent in CO2 emissions of 160 g/mile in North America, Europe, Japan and China must be enacted at the latest by 2020 with an effective date by at least 2025 Confidential - © Ducker Worldwide
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com This concludes our presentation. Thank you. This presentation was prepared by Ducker Worldwide LLC. Opinions and estimates constitute judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Any interpretations derived from these findings are the sole responsibility of the client. Reproduction without the explicit consent of Ducker Worldwide LLC is strictly prohibited. For more information, copies of these slides and/or an exclusive consulting contract please contact: Richard Schultz Ducker Worldwide 1.724.940.9018 richards@ducker.com For over 50 years, Ducker Worldwide has enabled clients to navigate and thrive in a dynamic, global marketplace. Our unique and proven combination of custom market intelligence, critical thinking and strategic consulting create valuable opportunities that deliver critical results. For more information regarding our strategic services, expertise and to learn how Ducker Worldwide can help you, please contact one of our team members at 248-644-0086 or visit our website at www.ducker.com 1250 Maplelawn Troy Michigan 48084 PH. 248.644.0086 Confidential - © Ducker Worldwide 27
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com Literature Review: 1. Lotus Engineering, Inc. --- An Assessment of Mass Reduction Opportunities for a 2017-2020 Model Year Vehicle Program, March 30, 2010 2. Multi-Material Light Weighting the Vehicle Structure – EU Super Light Car, Volkswagen Group Research, May, 2008 3. Stiffness Relevance and Strength Relevance in the Crash of Car Body Components, University of Aachen Report Number 83440, May, 2010 4. Preliminary Vehicle Mass Estimation Using Empirical Subsystem Influence Coefficients, Donald E. Mallen, University of Michigan, May 2007 Acknowledgements: The author wishes to thank Ford Motor Company, General Motors, Honda Motor Company, American Iron and Steel Association, US. and Canadian Aluminum Associations, Compass Auto Group, Meridian Technologies, Kobe Auto Aluminum Products, Revstone-Contech, Kaiser Aluminum, Alcoa, Raufoss Technologies and Novelis for their help with this presentation 1250 Maple lawn Troy Michigan 48084 PH. 248.644.0086 Confidential - © Ducker Worldwide Confidential - © Ducker Worldwide 28
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com About the Author Dick Schultz, Managing Director of the Automotive Materials Practice for Ducker Worldwide Prior to joining Ducker Worldwide , Dick was the President of Alcoa Automotive Structures and the Director of Worldwide Automotive Products for Alcoa in Farmington Hills, Michigan. He has over twenty years of experience in applying the latest aluminum, magnesium and steel technology to automotive applications around the world. After joining Ducker, Dick has managed over 50 research projects for the EPA, ORNL, Aluminum Association, AISI Automotive Applications Committee and numerous aluminum and steel component suppliers worldwide. Dick has a B.S. in Metallurgical Engineering from the University of Cincinnati and an MBA from the University of Pittsburgh. He has also completed extensive course work in Managing Complex Organizations at the M.I.T. Sloan School. Dick has over 50 years of experience in materials science Under Dick’s guidance as both a client and team leader at Ducker: Ducker Worldwide has collected data on the growth and development of aluminum and magnesium content in automotive light vehicle applications on an annual basis since 1991. Data collection and analysis on steel for automotive began in 1998 Ducker started its systematic efforts in North America, expanded into Europe and Japan and then began collecting data for the remainder of the world in 2007 Data are collected on a “bottom-up” basis, meaning the market has been tracked on an OEM, platform-by-platform and product-by-product basis. With metallurgists, engineers, and component specialists on staff, Ducker has become a leading subject-matter-expert for the global automotive industry on light weighting by increasing aluminum content, magnesium content and the use of the “new “ steels across all light vehicle systems 29 Confidential - © Ducker Worldwide
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com Extra Slides
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com 2011 Production by Segment 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 C Segment is important in the EEU and China EEU 4,000,000 North America 3,000,000 China 2,000,000 Japan 1,000,000 - A A/B B C C/D D D/E E E/F F/E F/G 2011 Segment Share of Production 40 35 30 D Segment and larger vehicles are popular in NA EEU Percent 25 20 China 15 North America 10 Japan 5 - A A/B B C C/D D D/E E E/F F/E F/G Source: PWC & Ducker Confidential - © Ducker Worldwide
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com Global Light Vehicle Production - History and Forecast - Global Light Vehicle Production 60000000 Total for all regions in 2017 is expected to be 98 Million. Regional Production 50000000 We expect 75 Million in 2011 40000000 Asia Pacific North America 30000000 European Union Eastern Europe 20000000 South America Middle East/Africa 10000000 0 1990 2000 2010 2017 Calendar Year Source: PWC & Ducker Confidential - © Ducker Worldwide
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com Asia Light Vehicle Production - History and Forecast - Vehicle Production by Major Country China is expected to assemble 25000000 23 Million over 23 Million vehicles in 2017. It is a misconception that the Country Production vehicles in China are all small. 20000000 The average vehicle in China is close in size to the average EEU vehicle, and uses more aluminum than the average vehicle in Japan 15000000 China 10000000 India 5000000 Japan 0 South Korea 1990 2000 2010 2017 Calendar Year Source: PWC & Ducker Confidential - © Ducker Worldwide
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com The latest data on the total mix of materials in North American light vehicles is shown below 2010 Light Vehicle Content Pounds and Percent Flat Rolled Steel Other Steel 838, 21.9% Aluminumm 103, 3% 1628, 42% Iron 52, 1% Copper 305, 7.9% Other Metals 1. Other steel is primarily All other Materials long products (rod, bar and structural shapes) 330, 8.6% 606, 15.6% 2. Other metals are lead, zinc, magnesium, titanium, platinum and other precious metals Total of 3,863 Pounds 3. Other materials are polymers, glass, rubber, textiles, wood, Historical Curb weight estimates have been raised. coatings and fluids such as This has forced us to lower the historical share for aluminum, oil and gasoline and slightly raise our estimates for flat rolled steel
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com The shift to more unibody vehicles will cost the steel industry over 500 pounds per vehicle or 20%, but the impact on aluminum is less than 10 pounds per vehicle or 3% North America Light Vehicle Body Architecture 90 Full Frame Unibody 78.9 79.5 79.8 80 80 73.7 72.8 73.7 76.2 77.6 70 65.8 65.7 62.3 59.3 59.9 59.5 57.9 57.7 60 Percent 50 40 30 20 10 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 4,050 LBS Impact of Architecture alone 3,775 LBS
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com Segment Share of 2012 NA Vehicle Production A-Segment 0% B-Segment 4% Percent of aluminum weight??? Full-Size Full-Frame Compact Full-Frame 19% 3% C-Segment 23% Mini Full-Frame 0% E-Segment 15% D-Segment 36%
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com Aluminum Suspension Arm Aluminum Steering Knuckle ____ Million in 2012 ____ Million in 2012
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com The differential “carrier” is the outside protective housing of the entire differential and rear axle assembly. It is the part exposed to the outside environment. In North America, the differential “case” is the part inside the differential carrier that houses the gear Front differential carriers are HPDC aluminum. Rears are permanent mold This part can weigh up to 16 pounds
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com Ladder frame Ladder frame weighs 500 pounds Cab weighs Closures weigh over 500 pounds over 300 pounds
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com Low volume aluminum components have now become high volume components 25% of all the bumper beams used in 2012 will be aluminum Over 20 million aluminum 32% of all the light vehicles assembled powertrain mounts in North America in 2012 will use will be used in the 2012 an aluminum hood light vehicles. These parts can be cast, extruded or forged
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com 2012 NA Light Vehicle Curb Weight A-Segment 2397.5 B-Segment 2721 C-Segment 2867.3 D-Segment 3597.4 Unibody Average 3,480 E-Segment 4320.9 Compact /Mini Full-Frame 3718 Full-Size Full-Frame 5115.2 Full Frame Average 4,902 Unibody & FF Average 3,798 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Pounds per Vehicle
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com Ducker Worldwide --- Estimates of Aluminum Content in Light Vehicles GM Share of 2012 NA Total Closures 25% Bumpers 29% Subframes 20% Knuckles 40% Control Arms 34% Drive Shafts 31% Transfer Cases 37% Wheels 23% Heads 24% Blocks 20% Total Vehicles 23% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Source: Ducker 2011
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com Ducker Worldwide – Estimates of Light Vehicle Aluminum Content 100 93.2 90 GM 2012 Aluminum Content per Light Vehicle 80 By Component and System 70 Pounds per Vehicle 57.9 60 56 50 45.3 44.7 40 30 20 13.7 14 11.1 9.3 7.6 10 4.6 3.7 2.2 1.6 2.8 0.2 0 Source: Ducker 2011
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com Ducker Worldwide ---- Estimates of Light Vehicle Aluminum Content 2012 GM Pounds of Aluminum per Vehicle GMC Yukon(GMT922) 415.49 GMC Sierra(GMT902) 354.35 GMC Sierra HD(GMT912) 344.21 GMC Savana(GMT610) 299.10 Chevrolet Tahoe(GMT921) 422.73 Chevrolet Suburban(GMT931) 436.49 Ducker expects Chevrolet Silverado(GMT901) 378.25 Chevrolet Silverado HD(GMT911) 311.02 the 2012 GM Chevrolet Express(GMT610) 299.21 average to be Chevrolet Avalanche(GMT941) 408.14 Cadillac Escalade(GMT926) 424.71 between 365 lbs. Cadillac Escalade EXT(GMT946) 429.92 Cadillac Escalade ESV(GMT936) 424.55 and 370 lbs. GMC Acadia(GMT968) 425.67 Chevrolet Traverse(GMT561) 437.52 per vehicle Chevrolet Impala(GMX211) 429.26 Cadillac XTS(P1LL) 405.82 Cadillac CTS(GMX322) 508.02 Cadillac CTS Sport Wagon(GMX206) 415.78 Buick Enclave(GMT967) 425.67 Chevrolet Camaro(GMX521) 465.42 Saab 9-4X(GMT168) 403.58 GMC Terrain(GMT177) 382.84 Chevrolet Equinox(GMT172) 391.03 The North American Chevrolet Captiva Sport(GMT311) 375.03 Cadillac SRX(GMT166) 438.04 average is expected Cadillac CTS Coupe(GMX226) 418.21 to be between 342 lbs. Chevrolet Malibu(GMX351) 382.67 Buick Regal(GMX350) 271.00 and 345 lbs. per Buick LaCrosse(GMX353) 448.01 Opel Ampera(D1JOI) 340.41 vehicle in 2012 Chevrolet Volt(D1JCI) 346.37 Chevrolet Cruze(D1SC) 266.63 Chevrolet Corvette(GMX245) 501.40 Cadillac ATS(A1SL) 358.87 Buick Verano(D1SB) 327.07 GMC Canyon(GMT355) 276.15 Chevrolet Colorado(GMT355) 283.87 Chevrolet Sonic(G1SC) 252.49 Chevrolet B-CUV(G1UC) 222.66 Chevrolet Aveo(T250/T255) 220.09 Ducker: Ducker 2011 - 100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com After a short period of slow growth, North American Light Vehicle aluminum content growth will take a large step back toward the long term trend line in 2012 450 Aluminum Pounds per Light Vehicle 400 393 History and Forecast 373 350 343 Forecast 330 316 325 295 300 Pounds 275 258 242 250 224 202 200 183 165 150 150 137 141 130 114 100 87 50 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com Strictly Confidential North American Forecast of Light Vehicle Aluminum Content One Scenario for 250 kg/vehicle 2025 Aluminum by System Saves 64 kg over 2011 average vehicle weight (83 kilograms with weight compounding) 250 System/Component % kg Exponential Trend Line Powertrain 90% 95 * The slope of the curve at any Wheels 73% 26 two points is determined by Chassis, Suspension and Steering 50% 20 actions in the prior 3-5 years Heat Transfer 100% 19 Closures 40% 30 Actual Values 2012 Inversion Brakes 60% 5 Bumpers 20% 2 Door Inners 25% 9 Front Ends/BIW NA is poised to Equivalents 15% 31 reclaim the Shock Towers 70% 9 leadership role for All Other NA 4 aluminum from the EEC Total Share of Curb 15.6% 250 Curb Weight of 1,600 kg & 4.3 **SMFP 2 kg/v 4 kg/v 6 kg/v 1977 2025 By 2025, we expect 40% *Powertrain includes some Hybrid and 10% Electric losses to magnesium engines in the U.S. This is expected to have a positive impact ** SMFP is Square meters of footprint Source: Ducker on aluminum mill products Confidential - © Ducker Worldwide
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com Aluminum content in North America will increase from 9% today to 16% by 2025 2010 2015 22% 23% Ferrous Ferrous 4% Aluminum 4% Aluminum 65.4% Other Metals 62.5% Other Metals 8.6% Non Metallics 10.5% Non Metallics 3863 Pounds +/- 25 3,725 Pounds +/- 50 2025 Announced Plan for European Luxury Sedans 25% Ferrous 18% Aluminum Ferrous 45% Light Metals 5% 54% Other Metals 15% Non Metallics Polymers 16% All other 22% 3520 Pounds +/- 80 3,700 Pounds +/- 100 Excludes Secondary Weight Savings
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com The substitution of Iron and Steel with Aluminum will be the most important driver in future curb weight reduction excluding secondary weight savings 3000 Measuring Curb Weight is imprecise, 4,100 but no matter how it is measured 2539 the trend is down 2500 4,000 2394 - 25% 3,900 Curb Weight One 3,800 Pounds per Vehicle Curb Weight Two 2000 3,700 1905 3,600 Linear (Curb 3,500 Weight One) A 10%-15%% decline over Linear (Curb 3,400 1500 20 years is expected Weight Two) 3,300 3,200 2005 2010 2015 2025 1000 900 839 856 2010 + 65% 550 2015 500 390 2025 330 155 160 165 0 Ferrous Aluminum Other Metals Non Metallics Material content in North American Light Vehicles
  • Transportation * CONSTRUCTION * INDUSTRIAL * materials * FINANCIAL ducker.com Future Curb Weight 4000 3900 3,867 lbs. Saves Vehicle Mix and Footprint Curb Weight in Pounds 3800 84 pounds Materials 3700 259 pounds 3600 3500 A 500 pound (13%) decrease in curb weight 170 pounds 3400 without sacrificing comfort, safety or performance can be accomplished 3300 3,350 lbs. 3200 3100 3000 2010 2009 2012 2015 2025 Vehicle Mix Material Substitution Secondary Savings and Engine Resizeing