China futures


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This PP explores the future of the "new" China. What can go right and what can go wrong? Much in both directions!

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China futures

  1. 1. The New China Donald C. Menzel, Ph.D. China Futures & the Chinese Dream Session 6
  2. 2. Is there a 4th NEW China on the horizon?
  3. 3. Is this the face of the 4th NEW China?
  4. 4. Is this the face of the 4th NEW China?
  5. 5. Portrait? • Peaceful rise . . . gentle giant act—Tom Friedman • Slow motion revolution—Ian Johnson • Rogue economic superpower—Paul Krugman • China’s view--the future belongs to us
  6. 6. What can go right? • Economy & employment • Exports & Consumerism in China • Standard of living improves – Food – Health – Materialism • Social harmony • International respect
  7. 7. Growing Up is Hard to Do! • The middle-income trap—High growth has been propelled by low cost labor and easy technology adoption but these disappear when countries reach middle and upper middle income levels, forcing them to find new sources of growth. • Chinese leaders are trying to deflate a real estate bubble by banning most purchases of second and third homes.
  8. 8. The World Bank: On the Road to 2030 • Goal—to become a high income country • China should complete its transition to a market economy . . . • Must focus on the quality of growth, not just quantity of growth • A modern society is industrialized and urbanized and enjoys a quality of life that is on par with the Western world.
  9. 9. What can go wrong?
  10. 10. Population • Expansion—1.5 billion people by 2030 • Approaching zero population growth – Birth rates are low with 1.7 per woman per lifetime – Need 2.1 for long-term replacement – Due in part to 1979 population control 1-child policy • Aging population with life expectancy assumed to lengthen by 2030
  11. 11. Consequence • 2030 China’s median age will be over 41, higher than Europe or the U.S. • In this future China, there would be more than three senior citizens for each young child. • The growing army of older people in China are listless and lost, pessimistic and frightened‖ says Gerard Lemos in The End of the Chinese Dream (2012)
  12. 12. China Futures • Demographic outlook is unfavorable • China’s demographic trends are strikingly similar to the Soviet Union’s a generation ago. • Rising nationalism? Aggressiveness? Militarism? Or, • Peaceful evolution and mature international responsibility?
  13. 13. Significant Events 2013 & Beyond • China becomes ―Americanized?‖ • China becomes a ―responsible‖ international power? • China becomes a ―democracy‖? • China becomes a ―failed‖ state?
  14. 14. What is the China dream? • 1980s it was prosperity, security, stability • Not so now—family well being, keeping a job, not getting sick, affording medical treatment, paying for their child’s education, having enough to live on in their old age and • Living in a neighborly community
  15. 15. The Happiness Factor • Can social stability be bought by rapid economic growth? • Where has the “iron rice bowl” gone? – Permanent jobs – Extensive employer provided safety net • Despite much lower levels of income, life satisfaction among urban Chinese was almost as high as in the developed world.—Richard A. Easterlin
  16. 16. Happiness continued . . . • 2007—only 27% of Chinese in lowest third of the income distribution expressed satisfaction with their financial situation, down from 42% in 1990 • Economic growth is not enough—job security and a social safety net are also critical to people’s happiness • Capitalism hasn’t made the Chinese more satisfied with life
  17. 17. Threats • Increasing wages for blue collar workers. Wages have nearly tripled in the last seven years or so. • Slow economic growth could disrupt China’s progress toward becoming a high income, harmonious, and creative society. • Managing the transition from a middle- income to a high-income society will prove challenging. World Bank rpt 2012
  18. 18. Social Inequality • Deng Xiaoping’s admonishment, “To get rich is glorious . . . “ was followed by . . . • “Let some people get rich first . . .” And they have! • "When China's leader Deng Xiaoping said, 'To get rich is glorious,' I don't think he imagined that the chasm between rich and poor in China could have serious political implications."," Zeng Xiangquan, a labor economist at People's University. "
  19. 19. Wealth Inequality
  20. 20. Questions ―Can China continue to prosper, while censoring the Internet, controlling its news media and insisting on a monopoly of political power by the Chinese Communist Party?‖, asks Tom Friedman. ―Can China develop its full potential by offering its people economic freedom without political freedom?‖
  21. 21. The End of the Chinese Dream • China is no longer a party-state as Mao and his successors intended. • Instead it has become a market-state of plutocrats seeking to dominant the Leviathan with money if possible by force if necessary. • The Chinese dream cultivated in the 1980s of prosperity, security, stability and even the beginning of freedom is at an end.—Gerard Lemos
  22. 22. Want to know more about the “new” China? You can find my new multi-touch book “The NEW China” in the iBookstore or the text version at Click on the images below.