WiMAX – A Business Case
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  • Enter 802.16/WiMAX 1-24

WiMAX – A Business Case WiMAX – A Business Case Presentation Transcript

  • Cellular Technologies and Services of the Future Tuesday, April 10, 2007 Penn Club, New York Pradeep Samudra, Independent Consultant                                                                  
    • Council Member Biography
    • Pradeep Samudra, now an independent consultant was most recently (10/06) a Vice
    • President at Samsung Telecommunications. He has over 25 years of experience in
    • the telecommunications industry. He is a holder of 4 recent patents and 6 pending
    • applications in the area of IP/MPLS/ATM routing and is knowledgeable about
    • the   business and technologies of CDMA/GSM/OFDMA/xDSL/VoIP/IPTV and FTTx
    • technologies. He is also experienced in developing and marketing broadband and
    • wireless network systems and products. Mr. Samudra has spoken at internationally
    • recognized conferences on topics ranging from market and technology forecasts,
    • planning and deployment and is a member of the Board of Directors for the
    • prestigious industry standards alliance ATIS. Recently he managed nationwide VoIP
    • deployment and an IPTV trial in the US. He is knowledgeable in the telecom vertical
    • segment, key players, their strategies, and prospects for future agents of and in
    • next-gen wireless technologies such as 3G/3G LTE/Super 3G and 4G, broadband
    • access and core networks.
    • Table of Contents
    • Cellular Technologies and Services of the future
    • Migration from 3G to B3G/4G - what are the drivers? What are costs?
    • Competition: Service providers, vendors and technologies
    • What are the issues?
    • Threats and Opportunities
  • Cellular Technologies 3G = 1 st Gen of Mobile Broadband More “monetizable” bandwidth is a key driver. LTE – Long Term Evolution (3GPP) MIMO – Multiple Input/Multiple Output OFDMA – Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiple Access TEF – Technology Evolution Framework (3GPP2/CDG) UMB – Ultra Mobile Broadband 1. Technology 1 The ITU expects “4G” as rolling out starting 2015. 2010: 802.16m 2007: 802.16e (WiMAX) IEEE 100M 1-15M 400-700K 150K 30-90 K Capacity (bps) 1X RTT GSM 1998 2G 1X EVDOr0 GPRS/EDGE 2002 2.5G 1X EVDOrA WCDMA 2006 3G nX EVDOrC UMB (TEF) HSPA+/OFDMA (LTE) 2009 3.5G OFDMA/MIMO 2012? 1 4G CDMA (3GPP2) GSM/UMTS (3GPP) Generation Commercialized
  • Next Gen Definition – B3G and 4G (IMT-A)
    • High data rates over efficient spectrum utilization (up to 10 b/s/Hz) using advanced antenna techniques
      • 100 Mbps @250 KMph or 1 Gbps nomadic/portable
    • IP/Web based services with QoS fro peer-peer services
    • Reconfigurable/ dynamic service provisionable (sensor/cognitive networks)
    • Seamless roaming among heterogeneous 1 networks
    • Scalable (up and down) in cost, performance and power
    • Backward compatible
    Distinctions between Portability, Nomadicity and Mobility are eliminated. Connectivity is ABC – Always Best Connected. 1. Technology 1 Could include 2/2.5/3G/LTE, WLAN/WMAN/WPAN, DVB/DAB IMT-A – International Mobile Telecommunications (Advanced)
  • Mission – B3G or 4G Source: Wireless World Research Forum Ubiquitous access, with pervasive, dynamically provisionable services “ Any Service, Any Place, Any Person, Any Time, Any Network, Any Device” 1. Technology MAGIC - M obile multimedia, A nytime/any-where, G lobal roaming, I ntegrated wireless and C ustomized personal service
  • Cellular Technology-Mobility Map High data rates, high mobility along with wide area coverage are the hallmarks of future Mobile Broadband services Source: Telephony/Tellabs, Inc., 2006 1. Technology - Supply
  • Projected Capacity Needs - Developed Market (EU) 1. Services - Demand
  • Next Gen Services – Video Centric
    • MCBCS
      • Multicast and Broadcast Services
      • But are FLO and DVB-H competitive or complementary to 3G?
    • Personal Security/Safety, Remote Device Management
    • Navigational
      • Location centric
    • M-Wallet
      • Swiss army knife: phone/PDA/map reader/ credit card/…
    • Collaborative Citizen Journalism
      • Mobile vlogs
    All we need is a small number of “sticky” services (e.g., caller-id in 90’s) 1. Services - Drivers FLO – Forward Link Only (FLASH-OFDM based video broadcast) DVB-H – Digital Video Broadcast – Handheld, based on DVB-T
  • High Data Rates Can Create New Business Opportunities B3G and 4G 1. Services – Revenue Potential Odds are good that mobile data services become popular.
  • Next Gen: Questions
    • Will consolidation of standards occur? Will it be a good thing?
      • How many variants of OFDMA do we need?
      • The NMGN group of operators are not quite united
      • Vendors want to hedge bets over multiple standards (IPR)
    • Will a few “sticky” applications emerge to exploit the high data rates?
      • Or, the additional capacity may not “buy” much while it may “cost” too much?
      • Or, will voice remain the “killer app”?
    • Will the cost of backward compatibility justify its benefits?
      • Or, will some disruptive paradigms provide better cost/benefits?
    • Will the technical challenges of integrating everything overwhelm the solution space?
      • Or, will opportunistic, point-solutions abound?
    • Will operators view the migration to NG as tactical (cost centered) or strategic (forward looking)?
    1. Technology and Services Build it and they will come?
  • Issues When Migrating from 3G to B3G or 4G
    • Spectrum issues
      • Availability of suitable bands and bandwidths (see next slide)
      • Cost: auctions or beauty contests?
    • Business model shift ?
      • Licensed spectrum for premium services
      • ->
      • unlicensed spectrum for recreational or non mission-critical services
    • Compatibility: an Albatross
      • E.g., EVRC (CDMA) or AMR (WCDMA) to VoIP transcoding while maintaining voice quality
    • Standards Issue
      • Incomplete specifications (e.g., 3G Layer 2) left to the implementer
    2. Migration EVRC = Enhanced Variable Rate CODEC AMR = Adaptive Multi-Rate Isolated access networks are purpose-built and may not share back office
  • Scope of Migration
    • Vertical
      • Within a family of technology, e.g., CDMA -> UMB -> TEF or UMTS -> HSPA -> LTE
    • Horizontal
      • Within a service offering, e.g., FMC (Fixed/Mobile Convergence)
    • Cross
      • Across service providers, e.g., How to charge for FMC roaming
    • Dynamic
      • Introduction of new situations, e.g., New handheld app not registered for a “patch” during roaming
    2. Migration Putting it together is too complex and sophisticated for existing solutions TEF = Technology Evolution Framework LTE = Long Term Evolution
  • Steps of Migration
    • Start with the Core network
      • IMS/service provisioning
      • All-IP infrastructure
    • Complete vertical migration
    • Opportunistically complete horizontal migration
    • Same for geographies covered
    2. Migration Depending on costs involved, migration can only begin as spotty/sporadic and then spread to all-pervasive.
  • Cost of Migration to 4G
    • Some sample costs in 3G space
    • Backhaul upgrade
      • $30-60M to convert 10,000 base stations from 2 to 4 T1’s
    • WiMAX (Sprint) buildout
      • $3B for RAN over 3 years to cover 200 M pop
    • Migrating CDMA2000 to 1xEVDOrA (Verizon Wireless)
      • $6B over 3 years for a “nationwide” footprint
    • 4G Hardware provides high speeds, QoS and control mechanisms; hardware costs tend to be “commoditized”, so volume will drive them down.
    • The key costs for 4G lie in the software that ties everything together
    2. Migration Software being labor intensive, 4G costs can be considerably high, requiring higher returns than 3G
  • Who Gets to Play? - Service Providers
    • Cellular Mobile Service Providers
      • Established world wide with CDMA and UMTS
    • Broadband Wireless Providers
      • Competitive carriers plus some established ones
    • Fixed (wireline and wireless) providers
      • Municipalities, chain stores
    • Broadcasters
      • Local TV Direct to Mobile
    3. Competition Some well funded startups will participate and surprisingly be successful.
  • Who Gets to Play? - Equipment/Device Vendors
    • Cellular Mobile Infra and handset/PCMCIA card Providers
      • Established world wide with CDMA and UMTS
      • Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson, Nokia-Siemens, Huawei, Samsung, too many others
    • Enterprise equipment providers
      • Established and start ups
      • Cisco, Avaya, Siemens, several others
    • Hardware chipset providers
      • RFIC, Baseband processors, Network processors, DSPs
      • Established (Intel, TI, Broadcom) and startups
    • Application Software Providers
      • Mostly creative enterprises
      • Startups around the globe
    3. Competition Successful startups are rewarded when bought out by large vendors.
  • What is it Played on? - Technology
    • Three parallel efforts using OFDMA
      • IEEE (WiMAX) 802.16m and 802.20: OFDMA/OFDMA
    • Flat network of IP
      • Straight layer 3
      • QoS is a serious issue that will get resolved
    • IMS
      • NGOSS (Next Gen Operations Support Systems)
      • SOA (Service Oriented Architecture)
    3. Competition IP over OFDMA is the next big technology (after TDMA and CDMA).
  • 802.16/WiMAX – “A Stepping Stone” 802.16/WiMAX Support for high data rates Open standards based network Support for Mobility & Next Generation services Support from major industry players
    • IEEE 802 Committee
    • Physical Layer
    • RF, Power, Modulation, Coding
    • Fixed and Mobile
    • MAC Layer
    • Framing, Security, Scheduling
    • Handover/Mobility
    • Standards
    • - 802.16 d and e (Ref interface R1)
    • WiMAX Forum
    • End-end Networking
    • - Reference architecture
    • Signaling, Network Mobility
    • Messaging
    • Standards
    • Ref interfaces R2-R8
    • Equipment Certification
    • Europe and Asia
    WiMAX is a Data Service 3. Competition: Cellular vs BWA
  • Competitive Access Technologies (Q1 2007) * Typical of the several possible Bold font = strength of the technology 3. Competition - Comparison High Mobile MAC IP Streaming, HD CDMA/VoIP 2-5 KM 70Mbps Flexible Licensed CDMA/ OFDMA Cellular 3.5G cdma2000 High Mobile MAC IP Streaming, HD TDM/VoIP 2-5 KM 40Mbps Flexible Licensed OFDMA/ FDMA Cellular 3.5G UMTS 70Mbps 1Mbps 70Mbps 4 Data rate* 2-5 KM 2-5 KM 50 M 5 Distance VoIP TDM VoIP 6 Voice Streaming, HD Streaming Streaming, HD 7 Video MAC/IP IP MAC/IP 8 Security MAC TDM/ ATM MAC 9 QoS Mobile Mobile Portable 10 Mobility Medium Medium Low 11 Cost (incr) Flexible Semi-fixed Fixed 3 BW Allocn Licensed Licensed Unlicensed 2 Spectrum OFDMA/ OFDMA T/F/CDMA OFDM/TDM 1 Technology 802.16e/ WiMAX Cellular 3G WLAN 802.11n
  • Issues
    • Universal Spectrum
      • 2.5 in US, 3.5 in 77 countries
      • Unlicensed vs licensed
      • Broadcast TV Spectrum: A wildcard
      • RF cost is 40% of total
    • Technology Maturation
      • Large investment by large players
      • Technology evaluation is complex
      • IPR fees
    Bringing new technology to market (Cost $$) vs Bringing new customers (apps) (Revenue $$) to market. 4. Issues
    • Technology Competition
      • Spectrum moratorium
      • Co-operation (“CLEC” status)
    • Backhaul
      • Lack of suitable capacity & connectivity
      • Cost is 25% of total
    • End to end Network
      • IMS/OSS/BSS integration timeline
    • Applications
      • Ecosystem (OS, UI, eCommerce models)
  • Issues - Content
    • Crucial Element
      • Video service depends on it
    • Future of Broadcast Video
    • Future of Linear Video
      • Vs. time and space shifted programming
    • Content Owners are Inflexible
      • Learnt from the music industry
    • Content Owners will Make the Most $$
      • Network (or “pipe”) providers believe so
    Content owners’ non-cooperation can be an “App Killer” 4. Issues
  • Threats and Opportunities
    • Risks
      • Technology
      • Market
    • Rewards
      • Early movers’
      • Innovators’
    • Critical Success Factors
      • Spectrum issues resolved
      • Harmonization among 3G LTE/TEF/WiMAX
      • Attractive price points
      • Application “pull” leading to competition
    5. Conclusion Bigger bets will be placed for larger payoffs
  • Backup Slides
  • WCDMA (3GPP) Performance Roadmap Latency (ms) Capacity DL (Mbps/5 MHz) Peak DL (Mbps/5 MHz) Capacity UL (Mbps/5 MHz) Peak UL (Mbps/5 MHz)
    • 100
    • 2.5
    • 4.3
    • 1
    • 0.384
    • 75
    • 2.5 (4-5)
    • 14
    • 1-2
    • ~2
    • 30-50
    • 4-5
    • 14
    • ~2
    • 4-6
    • 10-15 10
    • 4-5* 8-10
    • 14* 25
    • ~2 4-5
    • 4-6 12.5
    • HSDPA
    • Enh UL
    • HSDPA Ph2
    • (GRAKE)
    • MBMS
    • Enh UL Ph2
    • 3G LTE
    • 150
    • 1
    • 0.384
    • 1
    • 0.064
    2004 2005
    • R99
    2006 2007-8 2009 WCDMA OFDM (Targets) OFDM on 20 MHz gives 100 / 50 Mbps in DL / UL resp. 2x2 ant.enna assumed for the DL * With 2x2 MIMO in DL these numbers will be higher
  • Cdma2000 Roadmap (Source: CDG)
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