Cellular Technologies and Services of the Future Tuesday, April 10, 2007 Penn Club, New York Pradeep Samudra, Independent Consultant
Council Member Biography
Pradeep Samudra, now an independent consultant was most recently (10/06) a Vice
President at Samsung Telecommunications. He has over 25 years of experience in
the telecommunications industry. He is a holder of 4 recent patents and 6 pending
applications in the area of IP/MPLS/ATM routing and is knowledgeable about
the business and technologies of CDMA/GSM/OFDMA/xDSL/VoIP/IPTV and FTTx
technologies. He is also experienced in developing and marketing broadband and
wireless network systems and products. Mr. Samudra has spoken at internationally
recognized conferences on topics ranging from market and technology forecasts,
planning and deployment and is a member of the Board of Directors for the
prestigious industry standards alliance ATIS. Recently he managed nationwide VoIP
deployment and an IPTV trial in the US. He is knowledgeable in the telecom vertical
segment, key players, their strategies, and prospects for future agents of and in
next-gen wireless technologies such as 3G/3G LTE/Super 3G and 4G, broadband
access and core networks.
Table of Contents
Cellular Technologies and Services of the future
Migration from 3G to B3G/4G - what are the drivers? What are costs?
Competition: Service providers, vendors and technologies
What are the issues?
Threats and Opportunities
Cellular Technologies 3G = 1 st Gen of Mobile Broadband More “monetizable” bandwidth is a key driver. LTE – Long Term Evolution (3GPP) MIMO – Multiple Input/Multiple Output OFDMA – Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiple Access TEF – Technology Evolution Framework (3GPP2/CDG) UMB – Ultra Mobile Broadband 1. Technology 1 The ITU expects “4G” as rolling out starting 2015. 2010: 802.16m 2007: 802.16e (WiMAX) IEEE 100M 1-15M 400-700K 150K 30-90 K Capacity (bps) 1X RTT GSM 1998 2G 1X EVDOr0 GPRS/EDGE 2002 2.5G 1X EVDOrA WCDMA 2006 3G nX EVDOrC UMB (TEF) HSPA+/OFDMA (LTE) 2009 3.5G OFDMA/MIMO 2012? 1 4G CDMA (3GPP2) GSM/UMTS (3GPP) Generation Commercialized
Next Gen Definition – B3G and 4G (IMT-A)
High data rates over efficient spectrum utilization (up to 10 b/s/Hz) using advanced antenna techniques
100 Mbps @250 KMph or 1 Gbps nomadic/portable
IP/Web based services with QoS fro peer-peer services
Reconfigurable/ dynamic service provisionable (sensor/cognitive networks)
Seamless roaming among heterogeneous 1 networks
Scalable (up and down) in cost, performance and power
Distinctions between Portability, Nomadicity and Mobility are eliminated. Connectivity is ABC – Always Best Connected. 1. Technology 1 Could include 2/2.5/3G/LTE, WLAN/WMAN/WPAN, DVB/DAB IMT-A – International Mobile Telecommunications (Advanced)
Mission – B3G or 4G Source: Wireless World Research Forum Ubiquitous access, with pervasive, dynamically provisionable services “ Any Service, Any Place, Any Person, Any Time, Any Network, Any Device” 1. Technology MAGIC - M obile multimedia, A nytime/any-where, G lobal roaming, I ntegrated wireless and C ustomized personal service
Cellular Technology-Mobility Map High data rates, high mobility along with wide area coverage are the hallmarks of future Mobile Broadband services Source: Telephony/Tellabs, Inc., 2006 1. Technology - Supply
But are FLO and DVB-H competitive or complementary to 3G?
Personal Security/Safety, Remote Device Management
Swiss army knife: phone/PDA/map reader/ credit card/…
Collaborative Citizen Journalism
All we need is a small number of “sticky” services (e.g., caller-id in 90’s) 1. Services - Drivers FLO – Forward Link Only (FLASH-OFDM based video broadcast) DVB-H – Digital Video Broadcast – Handheld, based on DVB-T
High Data Rates Can Create New Business Opportunities B3G and 4G 1. Services – Revenue Potential Odds are good that mobile data services become popular.
Next Gen: Questions
Will consolidation of standards occur? Will it be a good thing?
How many variants of OFDMA do we need?
The NMGN group of operators are not quite united
Vendors want to hedge bets over multiple standards (IPR)
Will a few “sticky” applications emerge to exploit the high data rates?
Or, the additional capacity may not “buy” much while it may “cost” too much?
Or, will voice remain the “killer app”?
Will the cost of backward compatibility justify its benefits?
Or, will some disruptive paradigms provide better cost/benefits?
Will the technical challenges of integrating everything overwhelm the solution space?
Or, will opportunistic, point-solutions abound?
Will operators view the migration to NG as tactical (cost centered) or strategic (forward looking)?
1. Technology and Services Build it and they will come?
Issues When Migrating from 3G to B3G or 4G
Availability of suitable bands and bandwidths (see next slide)
Cost: auctions or beauty contests?
Business model shift ?
Licensed spectrum for premium services
unlicensed spectrum for recreational or non mission-critical services
Compatibility: an Albatross
E.g., EVRC (CDMA) or AMR (WCDMA) to VoIP transcoding while maintaining voice quality
Incomplete specifications (e.g., 3G Layer 2) left to the implementer
2. Migration EVRC = Enhanced Variable Rate CODEC AMR = Adaptive Multi-Rate Isolated access networks are purpose-built and may not share back office
Scope of Migration
Within a family of technology, e.g., CDMA -> UMB -> TEF or UMTS -> HSPA -> LTE
Within a service offering, e.g., FMC (Fixed/Mobile Convergence)
Across service providers, e.g., How to charge for FMC roaming
Introduction of new situations, e.g., New handheld app not registered for a “patch” during roaming
2. Migration Putting it together is too complex and sophisticated for existing solutions TEF = Technology Evolution Framework LTE = Long Term Evolution
Steps of Migration
Start with the Core network
Complete vertical migration
Opportunistically complete horizontal migration
Same for geographies covered
2. Migration Depending on costs involved, migration can only begin as spotty/sporadic and then spread to all-pervasive.
Cost of Migration to 4G
Some sample costs in 3G space
$30-60M to convert 10,000 base stations from 2 to 4 T1’s
WiMAX (Sprint) buildout
$3B for RAN over 3 years to cover 200 M pop
Migrating CDMA2000 to 1xEVDOrA (Verizon Wireless)
$6B over 3 years for a “nationwide” footprint
4G Hardware provides high speeds, QoS and control mechanisms; hardware costs tend to be “commoditized”, so volume will drive them down.
The key costs for 4G lie in the software that ties everything together
2. Migration Software being labor intensive, 4G costs can be considerably high, requiring higher returns than 3G
Who Gets to Play? - Service Providers
Cellular Mobile Service Providers
Established world wide with CDMA and UMTS
Broadband Wireless Providers
Competitive carriers plus some established ones
Fixed (wireline and wireless) providers
Municipalities, chain stores
Local TV Direct to Mobile
3. Competition Some well funded startups will participate and surprisingly be successful.
Who Gets to Play? - Equipment/Device Vendors
Cellular Mobile Infra and handset/PCMCIA card Providers
Established world wide with CDMA and UMTS
Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson, Nokia-Siemens, Huawei, Samsung, too many others
3. Competition Successful startups are rewarded when bought out by large vendors.
What is it Played on? - Technology
Three parallel efforts using OFDMA
UMTS (3GPP): OFDMA/FDMA
CDMA (3GPP2): CDMA/OFDMA/TDMA
IEEE (WiMAX) 802.16m and 802.20: OFDMA/OFDMA
Flat network of IP
Straight layer 3
QoS is a serious issue that will get resolved
NGOSS (Next Gen Operations Support Systems)
SOA (Service Oriented Architecture)
3. Competition IP over OFDMA is the next big technology (after TDMA and CDMA).
802.16/WiMAX – “A Stepping Stone” 802.16/WiMAX Support for high data rates Open standards based network Support for Mobility & Next Generation services Support from major industry players
IEEE 802 Committee
RF, Power, Modulation, Coding
Fixed and Mobile
Framing, Security, Scheduling
- 802.16 d and e (Ref interface R1)
- Reference architecture
Signaling, Network Mobility
Ref interfaces R2-R8
Europe and Asia
WiMAX is a Data Service 3. Competition: Cellular vs BWA
Competitive Access Technologies (Q1 2007) * Typical of the several possible Bold font = strength of the technology 3. Competition - Comparison High Mobile MAC IP Streaming, HD CDMA/VoIP 2-5 KM 70Mbps Flexible Licensed CDMA/ OFDMA Cellular 3.5G cdma2000 High Mobile MAC IP Streaming, HD TDM/VoIP 2-5 KM 40Mbps Flexible Licensed OFDMA/ FDMA Cellular 3.5G UMTS 70Mbps 1Mbps 70Mbps 4 Data rate* 2-5 KM 2-5 KM 50 M 5 Distance VoIP TDM VoIP 6 Voice Streaming, HD Streaming Streaming, HD 7 Video MAC/IP IP MAC/IP 8 Security MAC TDM/ ATM MAC 9 QoS Mobile Mobile Portable 10 Mobility Medium Medium Low 11 Cost (incr) Flexible Semi-fixed Fixed 3 BW Allocn Licensed Licensed Unlicensed 2 Spectrum OFDMA/ OFDMA T/F/CDMA OFDM/TDM 1 Technology 802.16e/ WiMAX Cellular 3G WLAN 802.11n
2.5 in US, 3.5 in 77 countries
Unlicensed vs licensed
Broadcast TV Spectrum: A wildcard
RF cost is 40% of total
Large investment by large players
Technology evaluation is complex
Bringing new technology to market (Cost $$) vs Bringing new customers (apps) (Revenue $$) to market. 4. Issues
Co-operation (“CLEC” status)
Lack of suitable capacity & connectivity
Cost is 25% of total
End to end Network
IMS/OSS/BSS integration timeline
Ecosystem (OS, UI, eCommerce models)
Issues - Content
Video service depends on it
Future of Broadcast Video
Future of Linear Video
Vs. time and space shifted programming
Content Owners are Inflexible
Learnt from the music industry
Content Owners will Make the Most $$
Network (or “pipe”) providers believe so
Content owners’ non-cooperation can be an “App Killer” 4. Issues
Threats and Opportunities
Critical Success Factors
Spectrum issues resolved
Harmonization among 3G LTE/TEF/WiMAX
Attractive price points
Application “pull” leading to competition
5. Conclusion Bigger bets will be placed for larger payoffs
2006 2007-8 2009 WCDMA OFDM (Targets) OFDM on 20 MHz gives 100 / 50 Mbps in DL / UL resp. 2x2 ant.enna assumed for the DL * With 2x2 MIMO in DL these numbers will be higher
Cdma2000 Roadmap (Source: CDG)
About GLG Institute
GLG Institute (GLGi SM ) is a professional organization focused on educating business and investment professionals through in-person meetings. It is designed to revolutionize the professional education market by putting the power of programming into the hands of the GLG community.
GLGi hosts hundreds of Seminars worldwide each year.
GLGi clients receive two seats to all Seminars in all Practice Areas.
GLGi’s website enables clients to:
Propose Seminar topics, agenda items and locations
View and RSVP to scheduled and proposed Seminars
Receive a daily briefing with new posts on your favorite tickers, subject areas and from trusted Council Members
Share Seminar details with colleagues or friends
Gerson Lehrman Group Contacts
Gerson Lehrman Group
850 Third Avenue, 9th Floor
New York, NY 10022
Senior Product Manager
Gerson Lehrman Group
850 Third Avenue, 9th Floor
New York, NY 10022
IMPORTANT GLG INSTITUTE DISCLAIMER – By making contact with this/these Council Members and participating in this event, you specifically acknowledge, understand and agree that you must not seek out material non-public or confidential information from Council Members. You understand and agree that the information and material provided by Council Members is provided for your own insight and educational purposes and may not be redistributed or displayed in any form without the prior written consent of Gerson Lehrman Group. You agree to keep the material provided by Council Members for this event and the business information of Gerson Lehrman Group, including information about Council Members, confidential until such information becomes known to the public generally and except to the extent that disclosure may be required by law, regulation or legal process. You must respect any agreements they may have and understand the Council Members may be constrained by obligations or agreements in their ability to consult on certain topics and answer certain questions. Please note that Council Members do not provide investment advice, nor do they provide professional opinions. Council Members who are lawyers do not provide legal advice and no attorney-client relationship is established from their participation in this project.
You acknowledge and agree that Gerson Lehrman Group does not screen and is not responsible for the content of materials produced by Council Members. You understand and agree that you will not hold Council Members or Gerson Lehrman Group liable for the accuracy or completeness of the information provided to you by the Council Members. You acknowledge and agree that Gerson Lehrman Group shall have no liability whatsoever arising from your attendance at the event or the actions or omissions of Council Members including, but not limited to claims by third parties relating to the actions or omissions of Council Members, and you agree to release Gerson Lehrman Group from any and all claims for lost profits and liabilities that result from your participation in this event or the information provided by Council Members, regardless of whether or not such liability arises is based in tort, contract, strict liability or otherwise. You acknowledge and agree that Gerson Lehrman Group shall not be liable for any incidental, consequential, punitive or special damages, or any other indirect damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages arising from your attendance at the event or use of the information provided at this event.