D- Got a good number for 2000 Internet. But I feel the previous chart has better data.
D- These are my extrapolations of the SSB data. My Wireless Internet number is an estimate for cellular use in 05, since I assume all phones will have internet capability.
Source: Dennis Roberson Chinese Academy presentation. WW subscribers growing to 1.7B in 2006 14% CAGR 2G reaches saturation in 2002-2003 2+G technologies penetrate ~60% of total subscribers by 2006
Digital services evolve Networks grow from 1G (voice-only) to 3G (streaming video applications) Data transmission speeds push past the 64 Kbps inflection point For increased Value of digital services Minutes of use Number of subscribers Monthly revenue per subscriber (voice + value-added services)
Of the 2G technologies, GSM is the clear winner, with the others a distant second. PDC, iDEN, and IS-136 will probably migrate (as opposed to evolve) to a CDMA based physical layer technology. Examples: Japan: Currently PDC or cdmaOne. NTTDoCoMo to WCDMA, KDDI to cdma2000 Korea: Currently cdmaOne. Two 3G licenses for WCDMA, one for cdma2000 AT&T: Have indicated interest in GPRS, EDGE, and WCDMA. Have not indicated how they plan to deploy. Note: Not all technologies shown (TD-SCDMA, cdma2000 3X, …) Although evolution/migration paths for all current technologies are shown leading to a CDMA based technology, the GSM evolution to GPRS and then to EDGE will have an extremely large presence in the forwseeable future. The iDEN evolution comes from Jaime Borras. iDEN packet data is really a 2.5 G technology in his mind. Maximum raw data rate is 96 kbps. Throughput is about 22-25 kbps including all the IP overhead. The evolution to a 3G technology is 2-3 years away. The fact that the specific 3G technology is cdma2000 is NOT PUBLIC INFORMAION.
As data transmission speed increases, more and more services are possible. 1G and 2G services are primarily voice, text messaging, and low-speed data (< 32 kbps) 3G offers higher speed data (typically > 128 kbps) and new services. 3G should retain existing services, and hopefully improve the capacity for existing services Rough - The purpose of this presentation is to examine the evolution of personal communications from today’s 1G and 2G technologies to either 2.5G or 3G in terms of cost to the operator. * Remind board that they received (?) a white paper [from Roger / Dave] on 3G one year ago.
To fix: Need to be consistent with peak or avg data rate. Adjust color bars, reproduce on earlier slide. As data transmission speed increases, more and more services are possible. 1G and 2G services are primarily voice, text messaging, and low-speed data (< 32 kbps) 3G offers higher speed data (typically > 128 kbps) and new services. 3G should retain existing services, and hopefully improve the capacity for existing services Rough - The purpose of this presentation is to examine the evolution of personal communications from today’s 1G and 2G technologies to either 2.5G or 3G in terms of cost to the operator. * Remind board that they received (?) a white paper [from Roger / Dave] on 3G one year ago.
Peak data rate is only loosely correlated to spectral efficiency Peak data rates for WCDMA and cdma2000 are optimistic for early products, which will be likely 384kbps and 144 kbps, respectively.
Source: GTSS GSM/EDGE/UMTS Systems Division Monthly Intelligence Overview Report – November / December 2000 Dave: The following comment was at the end of the arrow on original slide: “ Realisation that GPRS + 3G Will not make significant Revenue impact in 2001 - Focus on 2G” Corrected spelling error of “licensing”
Framework for rest of presentation
Framework for rest of presentation
Overall conclusions from two spectrum slides: Spectrum * cdma2000 and EDGE can evolve in 2G spectrum * WCDMA requires new spectrum * Declining auction costs should continue through increased supply of 3G spectrum Source: GSD product mgmt June 12, 2000 Original title: “3G Licencing (sic) – the end of high costs?”
Overall conclusions from two spectrum slides: Spectrum * cdma2000 and EDGE can evolve in 2G spectrum * WCDMA requires new spectrum * Declining auction costs should continue through increased supply of 3G spectrum Notes: * 3G spectrum being used for 2G extensions in US. * WARC2000 set aside 160 MHz of spectrum worldwide for 3G. (Source: UMTS Forum file WARC2000.pdf). To be available by 2010. Bands are: 1710-1885 MHz and 2500-2690 MHz. To do: * Augment this slide to illustrate the 2G spectrum as well (800 MHz)?
What Does Today’s Data User Really Want From Broadband Wireless? Access wherever he/she frequents - Yes Low cost - flat rate billing (like home) - Yes Mobility at high speed with seamless handoffs and handovers -- No! Internet access is an interactive activity User likely to be static (not moving) during session Experience close to familiar desktop - Yes Use existing Internet applications vs. new “3G” applications Large screened portable preferred to a small screened cellphone - Yes
Transcript of "The Evolution of Personal Communications"
Dennis Roberson SVP – CTO 3G and Hot Spot Networking
1 Billion + Subscribers World Market Trend (circ fall 2000) 1 Billion Subscribers INTERNET 380 Million Subscribers WIRELESS 580 Million Subscribers 2000 2004 “ WIRELESS INTERNET” Market Size Source: Commerce Net Research, NUA.NET, Motorola
New devices are being introduced 3G Candybar Voice, Data 3G Candybar Voice, Data, Video Voice Voice/Data Voice/Data/Image/Video 3G Clam Voice Data Data/Voice 3G Clam Voice, Data iMode Voice, Data Mini Computer Data PDA/PHS Data, Voice 2-Way Communicator Data/voice Card Phone Electronic Wallet Embedded 3G Candybar Voice Enhanced Devices
Wireless bandwidth is increasing ... 3G 2.5G 2G Data Transmission Speed - kbps 9.6 32 64 128 144 384 2,000 20->200K Still Imaging Video Streaming Voice Audio Streaming Text Messaging E-mail Mobile Radio Mobile Television Mobile Video Conferencing E-Commerce Video On Demand Increasing Value 3.5G 4G Shared Environments
0 32 64 9.6 128 144 384 2,000 1G 2G 3G Voice Text Messaging Video Streaming Still Imaging Audio Streaming Data Transmission Speed - k bps JPEG Still Photos E-Commerce The Promise of 3G Electronic Newspaper Remote Medical Service (image) Video Conference (High quality) Telephone (Voice) Voice Mail E-Mail Fax Electronic Publishing Karaoke Video Conference (Lower quality) Mobile Radio Viideo Surveillance, Video Mail, Travel Image Audio Voice-driven Web Pages Streaming Audio Data Weather, Traffic, News, Sports, Stock updates Mobile TV Video on Demand: Sports, News Weather
0 32 64 9.6 128 144 384 2,000 1G 2G 3G Voice Text Messaging Video Streaming Still Imaging Audio Streaming Data Transmission Speed - k bps Technology Data Rates cdma2000 GSM, IS-136, IS-95A GPRS EDGE WCDMA
What has happened to 3G Expectations? Spain Licensing With early TTM Bumper UK Licensing Bumper German Licensing Limited WAP Success Slippage Of commercial GPRS Italian + Swiss Auction Failures Terminal Restrictions Huge New Entrant Interest Industry Financial Impact Expectations For Early 3G Deployment High Low Dec Jul Jan 2000
Cellular Subscriber Growth USA China Estimates India Japan Germany Italy / UK
3G Spectrum Costs Estimated Cost per Licence in $Bn = Already Issued Before Forecast Auction Hybrid Beauty Contest Raised Half Of expectations Actual Raised Raised only 20% Of expectations Postponed Because of lack of interest Baskerville Forecast: Q200 Raised only 33% of Expectations
3G Spectrum Availability ITU Japan Europe China USA 3G 3G 3G 3G 3G 3G 3G 1885 1885 1885 2025 2025 2025 2025 2110 2110 2110 2110 2110 2200 2200 2200 2200 2200 1850 DECT 1880 1900 1895 1918.1 PHS 1980 2010 1980 2010 Broadcast Auxiliary 1930 1910 1930 1990 PCS PCS Unl. PCS Reserve MSS MSS All Frequencies in MHz * Region 2 MSS MSS 3G 2170 2120 2170 1996 2010 2186 2150 DCS 1800 DCS 1800 1710 1785 1805 MSS MSS MSS MSS* MSS* MSS A D B E F C A D B E F C
3G - Operator Slippages Original Plan Latest Plan Slippage Publicly announced reason Vodafone UK Nov-01 Nov-02 12-16 months Handsets SK Telecom May-02 May-03 12 months Handsets, infrastructure Telefonica Aug-01 Jul-02 11 months Licensing relaxation Japan Telecom Nov-01 Oct-02 8-11 months Gain 3GPP standards BT Cellnet Dec-01 Sep-02 10 months Infrastructure France Telecom Feb-02 H2-02 5-10 months Handsets NTT May-01 Oct-01* 6 months Handsets, software, interference BT Cellnet SK Telecom Japan Telecom Vodafone UK Telefonica Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Planned Launch Revised Launch May May Nov Nov Nov Aug 2001 2002 2003 Q3 July Oct Dec Sep France Telecom Feb Sep/Oct NTT Oct* Delay in Roll Out
Bandwidths Trends Compared (early adopters, highest bandwidths) bps Office LAN Home/WAN Personal Wireless Internet Backbone WLAN
Wireless Data Trends 10 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Year Max Data Rate (Kbps) Wide Area B’tooth/802.15.3 HiperLAN2 Median2 IEEE 802.11 W-CDMA EDGE GPRS HSCD WLAN (~Fixed) WAN (Fully Mobile) PAN (Nomadic)
Key WLAN / PAN Radio Technologies Enterprise Broadband Home Nomadic 2000 2003 2002 2001 2004 802.11b HomeRF2 or 802.11a/e or HL2 Bluetooth/802.15.1 802.15.3 Speed: 11 - 22Mbps Technology: 2.4GHz, DSS Speed: 22 - 100Mbps Technology: 5.XGHz, OFDM Speed: 1.1 Mbps Technology: 2.4GHz, FH Speed: 10 - 22 – 54 Mbps Technology: 5.XGHz, OFDM Speed: 700Kbps Technology: 2.4GHz, FH Speed: 20+ Mbps Technology: 2.4 GHz Strategy: Transistion to 5GHz WPAN; UWB Products: Set-top box, etc Driver: Reduce setup costs new markets/services Products: Cell-phones, etc Driver: Competition, new markets & products All Speeds at RAW bandwidth. Delivered payload varies Products: Vertical Driver: Competition Bluetooth2 Speed: 2-10 Mbps Technology: 2.4GHz FH *Hotspots may use Enterprise or Nomadic technologies 802.11a or HiperLAN2 HomeRF
Broadband “Island” Scenario Wide Area coverage Provided by 2G Carriers Greater Washington DC Area Broadband 802.11x Pentagon, coverage provided by “US Military Telecom” 2.5G GPRS Broadband 802.11x Reagan Airport, coverage provided by 3rd Party Vendor Broadband 802.11x Mall area coverage provided by Verizon Requires a multi-mode device (GPRS and 802.11) Requires a new billing model slide courtesy of Les Eastwood
Enterprise Wireless Mobility Model Level 3 - Regional Low Speed Wireless (56Kbps) Level 2 - Campus High Speed Wireless LANs (100Mbps) Level 1 - Personal Area Network (.5-10Mbps) Campus R
WLANs and PANs Enhance Cellular <ul><li>Timeliness: 11Mbps available now </li></ul><ul><li>Low Cost for Operator/Owner and User </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Free Spectrum: 300-500MHz of unlicensed spectrum </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Low equipment cost </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Enables low cost/flat fee Wireless to consumer </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Superior End User Experience </li></ul><ul><ul><li>54Mb/s vs. 1-2Mb/s </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>All existing and future Internet applications already work </li></ul></ul>slide courtesy of Les Eastwood (and Could Threaten 3G)
WLAN & Cellular Convergence Is there opportunity here? Wireless Internet Local Access & Control Data Only No Roaming Private Network WLAN Today High Speed – Point Coverage Technologies Geared toward Data in the Enterprise Slow Data Rates Global Roaming High Speed Mobility Cellular Today Low Data Rate – Wide Coverage Technologies Geared toward Consumer Voice and Data
802.11 Or Any WLAN Technology Internet Benefits: Local Access, Common Control Data & Voice Point to Point Roaming VPN over Public Network Increasing Data Rates in More Places Seamless Roaming and Billing High Speed Mobility … Integrate Cellular with WLAN <ul><li>Common Features/Capabilities </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Authentication </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Billing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Preferences/Call Control </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Access Capable (802.11, BT, Cellular) </li></ul></ul>iMGW Platform Technology Tailored for a Seamless Solution Enterprise or Hot Spot Nomadic Home
Beyond 3G (B3G) 1G WLAN Hotspots GPRS +802.11 3G 4G 2G 1980’s 2000’s 2010’s UMTS + HiperLAN Cellular+ WLAN+ Bdcast GPRS +DVB <ul><li>B3G key attributes: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>interworking and cooperation between different Radio Networks </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>user as the focus, opportune delivery of the content/services </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>multi-mode terminals free to camp on any available network </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>fully IP based </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>disruptive technology </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>potentially complementary to 3G </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>potentially competitive to 3G </li></ul></ul></ul>1990’s
B3G Vision DVB-T Ipv6 Backbone(s) Internet IPv4 IPv6 Management domain A moving IP- subnet Composite Radio Ressource management (Spectrum utilization, links/traffic optimization) Composite Domain Management (mobility, QoS, multicast, AAA) Composite Service Delivery management (Billing, …) Management Functions <ul><li>Main Attributes: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Core network IPv6 based </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Better support of mobility, security and “unlimited” address space </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Wireless access points become IP gateways </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Different radio access technologies deployed within a domain </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Optimization of the radio resources </li></ul></ul></ul>UMTS GPRS Hiperlan2 AP Services
WLAN Standards & Technologies HiperLAN 2 802.11 b 2.4 GHz 4ch. (80MHz) 5 GHz US: 12 ch. (300MHz) EU: 19 ch. (455MHz) JP: 5 ch. (100MHz) <ul><li>54 Mbps/channel net bit rate </li></ul><ul><li>Simple and adapted to corporate apps </li></ul><ul><li>“ Wireless Ethernet", no QoS, limited for multimedia </li></ul><ul><li>Future 802.11e, h incl. QoS, DFS+TPC, security, roaming </li></ul><ul><li>54 Mbps/channel net bit rate </li></ul><ul><li>Multimedia ready (supports QoS, Ethernet, ATM, 1394) </li></ul><ul><li>Not widely adopted - pushed by Europe </li></ul><ul><li>Better suited to Home & Multimedia applications </li></ul><ul><li>11Mbs/channel net bit rate </li></ul><ul><li>First on market, market education </li></ul><ul><li>Limited in data rate, and capacity (spectrum, interference) </li></ul>802.11 a <ul><li>802.11a+e+h ≈ HL2 </li></ul><ul><li>Japan is going 11a for Corporate, and HiSWAN (NTT) for Home & Public </li></ul>IEEE802.11a evolutionary approach ↔ HiperLAN2 support of multimedia
Forces affecting the Future of 5 GHz WLAN Economy/Industry Downturn Consumer Confusion 22 Mbps 2.4 GHz solutions Technical Challenges Enabling Applications Cost Capacity collapse 2.4GHz Speed/Media needs Quality of Service 2.4 GHz interference Security Range V O L U M E T I M E
Wireless System Landscape Data Rate to the User High Mobility speech, some data Limited Mobility: Speech, data Fixed Access, High speed data In-Home / In-Building 3G Mobility, Functions WLAN / PAN 4G 1Kbps 10Kbps 100Kbps 1Mbps 10Mbps 100Mbps 2G 1G
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