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3G Provides Mobile Broadband Today: Document Transcript

  • 1. 3G Provides Mobile Broadband Today: An Overview of 3G, its Evolution, and some Perspectives on Mobile WiMAX Qualcomm Incorporated January 2008
  • 2. 3G Provides Mobile Broadband Today Table of Contents Executive Summary .............................................................................. 1 [1] Introduction ...................................................................................... 2 [2] Wireless Economics......................................................................... 3 2.1 Supply and Demand ................................................................ 3 2.2 Operators Are Poised to Provide Additional Services, Performance, and Capacity .................................................... 3 2.3 Maximizing Revenues, Minimizing Costs ................................ 4 [3] Ecosystem........................................................................................ 5 [4] Applications and Revenue ............................................................... 8 4.1 3G Provides Service and Deployment Flexibility .................... 8 4.2 Many Operators Provide Innovative IP-based 3G Services Today ....................................................................... 9 4.3 3G Provides Mature Mobile Services Today ......................... 10 [5] Cost Considerations....................................................................... 11 5.1 Scale and Functionality Drive Device Cost ........................... 11 5.2 Number of Sites Drives Network Cost................................... 15 5.2.1 Capacity Comparison................................................. 17 5.2.2 Coverage Comparison ............................................... 18 [6] Evolution ........................................................................................ 20 [7] Conclusions.................................................................................... 22 1/2008 page i
  • 3. 3G Provides Mobile Broadband Today Executive Summary Economic principles explain the success of 3G and foreshadow its dominant role in providing mobile broadband to billions of users. The demand for voice communication and the availability of increasingly affordable technologies and services have led to an enormous installed base of global subscribers. The large, mature 3G ecosystem of operators, vendors, and developers has sufficient scale to deliver economical mobile broadband. Numerous operators are providing a broad range of IP-based services today. 3G is a less-expensive technology option for operators than WiMAX™. Device cost is governed by scale, and 3G devices across all market segments are forecasted to have greater scale than WiMAX. Network costs are driven by the number of required sites, since all WAN technologies should have comparable site costs. 3G systems and their performance are proven. WiMAX performance is unproven, since no loaded WiMAX mobile networks yet exist to provide field data. According to simulations, 3G technologies deliver greater capacity and coverage than WiMAX when compared under the same conditions. Whether in coverage-limited or capacity-limited scenarios, 3G networks require fewer sites than 802.16e-based WiMAX. As exemplified by the plethora of mobile, nomadic, and fixed broadband services offered by operators today, 3G enables all IP-based applications in its current incarnations. Furthermore, 3G technologies provide strong evolution paths. EV-DO Rev B and HSPA+, followed by UMB™ and LTE, will deliver even greater performance and leverage wider blocks of spectrum. 3G technologies and their evolutions are poised to deliver increasingly affordable mobile broadband services to an eager global population. While there will be ample opportunities for all technologies, WiMAX will lack the scale and performance/service differentiation necessary for truly ubiquitous mobile broadband. 1/2008 page 1
  • 4. 3G Provides Mobile Broadband Today [1] Introduction Mobile phones have profoundly transformed the way we live in most parts of the world today. A mere twenty years since the introduction of the cell phone, the ability to engage in conversation anytime, anywhere has escalated from a desire to an expectation. Making a timely phone call is no longer a luxury, but often a necessity. While most of us today are not as overzealous about our data as we are about our conversations, timely access to information is just as indispensable to our personal and work lives. Unimaginable only a decade ago, the Internet is at the center of much business and social interaction today. The global addiction to cellular services and the astounding array of available networked content are paving the way to mobile broadband. Cellular voice adoption has been strong, and is still accelerating in parts of the world where phone lines are unavailable to most of the population. Not only has cellular-network coverage grown dramatically, but the underlying technologies have also evolved to carry data as efficiently as voice. 3G provides mobile broadband performance in a wireless environment, with peak rates attaining multiple Mbps. Many operators are offering music, pictures, video, and Internet access over 3G networks today. For many people, 3G broadband may be the only opportunity for personal access to networked content. 1/2008 page 2
  • 5. 3G Provides Mobile Broadband Today [2] Wireless Economics 2.1 Supply and Demand Regardless of technology, the law of supply and demand is as important in wireless economics as it is in other disciplines. Growing demand for mobile data is giving rise to a variety of mobile broadband services. Simply stated: We are increasingly mobile. People understand and value the freedom to communicate when and where they choose. We want more data, and at higher speeds. As computers and consumer devices consume and generate increasingly rich content, the amount of data being shuttled over networks is rising rapidly. Many players are motivated to offer services. Dominant companies in industries that are approaching market saturation are eagerly seeking growth opportunities elsewhere. Expansion into wireless is a popular strategy, because the scale is so significant. Technologies are available to enable these services. 3G provides a broad range of cost-effective options for operators to differentiate themselves; they can deliver a full complement of voice and data services over networks with performance comparable to cable/DSL. 2.2 Operators Are Poised to Provide Additional Services, Performance, and Capacity Operators are eager to capitalize on demand, but they are also careful to deploy services where it makes sense. Just as with voice networks, 3G mobile broadband operators initially deploy for coverage, and later add capacity when demand intensifies. Voice is still the primary source of mobile revenue, and an excellent base from which to introduce additional revenue streams. 3G technologies provide ample data capacity at broadband speeds, and present a low- risk platform for operators to introduce new data services in response to demand. They also provide an evolution path to all-data networks where VoIP will allow both low-cost best-effort and high-quality QoS-based voice services. 1/2008 page 3
  • 6. 3G Provides Mobile Broadband Today 2.3 Maximizing Revenues, Minimizing Costs As operators evaluate options for rolling out wireless data services, they carefully assess each competing technology’s potential to maximize revenue while minimizing cost. 3G technologies allow operators to maximize revenue, because they enable a full range of large-scale voice and data services. These technologies also efficiently support fixed, nomadic, pedestrian, and mobile use. 3G operators are successfully providing a wide variety of mobile data services and open Internet access today. Scale and number of sites govern device and network costs, respectively. 3G has the scale to drive down the cost of a wide range of devices—from mobile phones, data cards, and embedded laptops today, to wireless consumer electronics devices in the future. 3G networks provide both the capacity and coverage to minimize the number of sites needed when compared with other technologies, while offering high data rates and excellent user experience. In urban and dense suburban deployments, the number of required sites is driven by a technology’s capacity and spectral efficiency. Capacity available for applications = (physical-layer capacity – overhead) 3G technologies are highly optimized for wireless and mobility, and exhibit lower overhead in fixed and mobile deployments than competing alternatives. Spectral efficiency = (capacity / spectrum utilized) Spectral efficiency matters, because most operators have limited spectrum with which to serve broadband customers. 3G technologies require less spectrum than competing technologies, because all cells/sectors can use the same channel frequency. 1/2008 page 4
  • 7. 3G Provides Mobile Broadband Today For suburban and rural deployments where subscribers are farther apart, the number of required sites is driven by a technology’s coverage (or cell area). Site count = (area to be covered / cell area) Cell area, in turn, is proportional to the cell radius squared. The radius or reach of a technology depends on the frequency at which it is deployed, and the effectiveness of the design. 3G technologies provide excellent coverage, because they are typically deployed at lower frequencies and their air-interface design efficiently compensates for changing channel conditions. They are also typically FDD technologies; all other things being equal, FDD systems have greater cell radii than their TDD counterparts. For existing operators, leveraging past investments as much as possible is an important component of minimizing cost. Building out new networks, duplicating coverage, and replacing devices are expensive propositions. The rapid proliferation of 3G reflects the advantages of cost-effective upgrades to deployed networks. Pervasive coverage and long depreciation cycles imply that 3G networks will persist for many years; new technologies deployed for additional capacity will likely only provide coverage where it makes sense. Coverage limitations also imply that new broadband technologies, in order to provide effective mobile services, will likely require multimode devices that also support 3G. [3] Ecosystem An important factor affecting a technology’s ability to deliver mobile broadband is the health of the ecosystem to which it belongs. A thriving ecosystem includes successful operators generating revenue for their services, and innovative vendors/developers creating products/services that meet operators’ needs and fuel customer demand. 1/2008 page 5
  • 8. 3G Provides Mobile Broadband Today According to various industry sources, over 230 operators are currently offering services to an estimated 110 million subscribers over EV-DO and HSPA broadband networks. Nearly 100 vendors are fielding 3G device and infrastructure solutions today. Furthermore, this vendor constellation is stable, because it is mature and proven. 3G operators have access to a wide array of high-quality devices to offer broadband services. In fact, 3G offers operators greater diversity across all segments—from numerous low-cost handsets, data cards, and USB modems to a plethora of high-end smartphones, laptops, PDAs, and fixed-wireless gateways. More than 1000 3G1 devices are available today for operators to use to differentiate themselves and stimulate customer interest. In addition, more than 100 3G laptop models are available from more than 16 vendors today. The embedded-3G success story is encouraging more vendors to incorporate EV-DO and HSDPA modems in their laptops alongside Wi-Fi® and Bluetooth®. ABI Research estimates that 3G-embedded laptop shipments will outpace WiMAX-embedded counterparts (Figure 1). Worldwide Cellular- and WiMAX-Enabled Notebook PC Shipment Cellular-Enabled Notebook PCs WiMAX-Enabled Notebook PCs 40 35 Shipments (Millions) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Figure 1. 3G- and WiMAX-Embedded Notebook Forecast Source: ABI, 10/06 1 Combined CDG and GSMA figures 1/2008 page 6
  • 9. 3G Provides Mobile Broadband Today The convergence of the telecommunications, computer, and consumer electronics (CE) industries is giving rise to new classes of devices. The evolution of mobile phones is turning 3G mobiles into more powerful computing and CE platforms. For example, innovative phones have incorporated functions of game consoles, electronic wallets (Figure 2), bar-code scanners, music players, glucometers, and many other applications. Mobile Coupons EZ FeliCa M-Payment M-Payment M-Payment Reader Reader NTT M-Payment KDDI M-Payment Services Services E-Money & Tickets E-Money Figure 2. Mobile Payments in Japan In the home, 3G- and Wi-Fi-enabled routers are allowing operators to provide 3G high-performance broadband services to users who are out of range of traditional DSL and cable offerings. These devices are also an interesting solution for customers who want to take their broadband connection with them, from their home to small business offices in unserved industrial parks. Another interesting usage scenario is a group of mobile users sharing a connection in a moving car or train. 1/2008 page 7
  • 10. 3G Provides Mobile Broadband Today Many of these innovations have been realized, because vendors are motivated by the prospects of achieving significant product scale. 3G is so widely deployed, and coverage so prevalent, that lucrative market opportunities abound. Not only are 3G networks ubiquitous, they are based on technologies that are well-defined in complete, global standards. These standards are the culmination of numerous quality contributions from many participants—318 and 84 members in 3GPP and 3GPP2, respectively. Not only are airlink mechanisms thoroughly defined in 3G standards, so are core networks and interoperability. The resulting reduction in ambiguity, the mature streamlined test processes, and the mandatory field trials enable 3G products to be brought to market more quickly. Another important ecosystem issue related to standardization and technology innovation is that of IPR. Although absolute figures are not common knowledge, 3G licensing costs are a known quantity. As with 3G, there will be WiMAX royalties; however, there is tremendous uncertainty about the actual rate. It takes time to arrive at a stable, mature ecosystem with well-understood dynamics. All new wireless technologies go through this maturation process. The 3G ecosystem is an evolution of first- and second- generation cellular ecosystems; it benefits from years of development. 3G technologies have been in development and in the marketplace for over five years. The WiMAX ecosystem will similarly need to evolve and mature over time. [4] Applications and Revenue 4.1 3G Provides Service and Deployment Flexibility A flexible, high-capacity 3G system enables all services. Operators can allocate available capacity for more users, or to provide higher data rates. Flexible 3G broadband networks can address all market segments—from fixed to mobile services; from basic access to rich services; from low- to high-end segments; from voice- or data-only to bundled voice and data services. Operators can adapt their mix of voice and data offerings over time, and in response to adoption, without 1/2008 page 8
  • 11. 3G Provides Mobile Broadband Today hardware changes. Such flexibility reduces risk and fully monetizes the network. Operators are free to pursue their preferred strategy for augmenting data capacity a needed. For example, they can apportion more capacity for data (relative to voice), or they can deploy separate or additional data carriers. 3G technologies also enable operators to offer multicast services (like TV or data-casts) in-band, using technologies like Platinum Multicast or MBMS; alternatively, 3G can provide greater capacity for multicast offerings via well-integrated out-of-band, single-frequency networks, and multimode devices (using technologies like MediaFLO™ or DVB®-H). 4.2 Many Operators Provide Innovative IP-based 3G Services Today Many innovative operators are offering a wide range of 3G services and devices today. 3G enables operators to tap into targeted revenue streams, whether these involve best-effort browsing, email, video calling, social networks, user-generated content, music downloads, low-latency gaming, video streams on demand, or one of many other services. 3G enables a dazzling panoply of services (Figure 3.) with a single network or with a combination of integrated networks, depending on an operator’s strategy. Figure 3. A Sampling of 3G Data Services 1/2008 page 9
  • 12. 3G Provides Mobile Broadband Today It is perhaps not clear to many that 3G enables all of these services with IP-based deployments today—no circuit-switched infrastructure is required. Greenfield operators can deploy EV-DO Rev A or HSUPA networks to provide data and/or voice services without circuit-switched equipment. 3G’s service flexibility arises not only because 3G fully supports IP-based applications, but also because 3G provides comprehensive Quality of Service (QoS) for all IP applications. These QoS mechanisms effectively prioritize delay-sensitive flows (e.g., VoIP) over best-effort ones (e.g., web browsing). In conjunction with the low latency of EV-DO Rev. A or HSPA, these mechanisms provide excellent ear-to-mouth delay (telco-grade VoIP). The latest 3G networks exhibit fast connection times for services like Push to Talk (PTT), and also assure continuity of delay-sensitive applications during handoffs. By comparison, WiMAX QoS mechanisms are unproven, and are not yet well-integrated with current IP platforms. The efficiency of 3G networks is enabling mobile broadband pricing that is approaching cable and DSL levels. The cost of service plans is decreasing, especially in competitive markets in Europe and North America. In some cases, operators are offering flat-rate consumer pricing that ranges from approximately US$17 to US$60 monthly; some operators offer capped data plans; some offer data-only plans; others bundle data with voice. 4.3 3G Provides Mature Mobile Services Today 3G technologies have evolved from systems designed for mobility from day one; they offer seamless mobile broadband today. Mobile WiMAX is an evolution of fixed wireless access systems and the fixed-line DOCSIS specification. WiMAX is not yet a mature mobile technology. 3G provides a comprehensive framework to support seamless handoffs for all applications (VoIP and data). Supporting mobility lowers WiMAX reliability and impacts capacity. High resource-allocation overhead limits the resources (bandwidth) available for power control. Slow power control leads to high Interference over Thermal (IoT) variance, impacts uplink efficiency, and can compromise WiMAX system stability. The lack of strict interference management results in lower sector capacity. 1/2008 page 10
  • 13. 3G Provides Mobile Broadband Today More robust WiMAX mobile deployments require a frequency reuse-3 configuration. The lack of comprehensive interference management entails reuse-3 for data sub-channels, to avoid significant outage (simulations indicate that >40% outage can result with reuse-1). The implication for operators is that more spectrum is required to deploy WiMAX for mobility (for example, 30 MHz for a 10 MHz system). As a result, it can be said that 16e-based WiMAX is not an efficient technology for mobile broadband services. WiMAX mobile broadband requires a trade-off between spectral efficiency and user experience. [5] Cost Considerations Operators strive to provide profitable wireless broadband services by minimizing their device and overall network costs. Device costs are primarily related to scale and functionality. The most important network costs are proportional to the number of sites deployed. 5.1 Scale and Functionality Drive Device Cost Operators’ device cost decreases as shipped volumes grow. 3G device volumes are significant, ~267M shipped in 2006 (Figure 4), and increasing rapidly as operators upgrade their networks; the cost of 3G handsets is declining as shipments increase (Figures 4-6). For like devices, scale accounts for the cost difference between 3G and WiMAX. WCDMA & CDMA2000 Worldwide Handset Shipments (Millions) 58%* 800 700 600 500 400 761 300 23%* 638 535 200 439 352 271 100 197 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Figure 4. Handset Shipment Trends: WCDMA and CDMA * Percentage of total handset shipments Source: Average of ABI (Q4 2007), IDC (Jul 07) Strategy Analytics (Jul 07) and Yankee Group (Oct 07) handset forecasts 1/2008 page 11
  • 14. 3G Provides Mobile Broadband Today WCDMA Handset Costs $450 $407 $367 $350 $341 $311 $290$287$290 $295 $272 $270$270 $254 $250 $228 $231 $217 $221 $197 $198 $195 $191 $181 $141 $141 $150 $129 $128 $128 $135 $105 $50 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 Lowest 10% Lowest Price Figure 5. Handset Cost Trends: WCDMA Handsets2 Source: Qualcomm Incorporated CDMA2000 Handset Costs $90 $82 $83 $77 $69 $70 $70 $68 $68 $57 $59 $55 $55 $50 $51 $49 $49 $48 $50 $43 $42 $41 $37 $35 $35 $35 $28 $30 $24 $26$24 $20 $10 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 Lowest 10% Lowest priced Figure 6. Handset Cost Trends: CDMA Handsets3 Source: Qualcomm Incorporated 2 Note: WCDMA handsets Sold per Calendar Quarter; lowest price represents complete handsets sold in quantities of approx 50,000 units or higher. Note: Data derived from licensee reports. Does not include modules. 3 Note: CDMA2000 Phones Sold per Calendar Quarter; lowest priced represents complete phones sold in quantities of approx 150,000 units or higher. Note: Data derived from licensee reports. Does not include modules. 1/2008 page 12
  • 15. 3G Provides Mobile Broadband Today Competition between vendors also puts downward pressure on device cost; however, individual vendors must still be able to achieve sufficient scale to remain profitable and maintain a healthy ecosystem. Prior to ecosystem consolidation, market fragmentation can make it more challenging for vendors of new technologies like WiMAX to achieve significant scale, because many vendors are pursuing smaller, early market opportunities. The incompatibility between pre-802.16 proprietary solutions, Fixed WiMAX (802.16d-based), and Mobile WiMAX (802.16e-based) products also impacts device scale. Various operators, capitalizing on time-to- market advantage, deployed proprietary or Fixed WiMAX networks. Figure 7 illustrates how this installed base will cannibalize 16e WiMAX shipments for years, in part because operators cannot upgrade. Operators with profitable businesses are unlikely to replace, at great expense, these networks and devices until the case for migration makes economic sense. Figure 7. WiMAX and Proprietary Subscriber Forecasts 1/2008 page 13
  • 16. 3G Provides Mobile Broadband Today In time, it’s likely that 802.16e systems will be used for most fixed and mobile deployments, improving the scale equation for WiMAX. In contrast to the various flavors of WiMAX, all 3G systems can be used for fixed and mobile applications today. 3G device scale is also achieved because networks are deployed in globally harmonized spectrum; most countries allocated the same frequency bands for 3G, and most of the spectrum was paired for FDD duplexing. Harmonization enables vendors to achieve scale, because their products can be deployed in many markets. Figure 8. WiMAX Forum Profiles Attaining scale is more challenging for WiMAX vendors, because there is more variability in the bands and channelizations used for WiMAX deployments (Figure 8). For example, fixed networks are generally deployed in the 3.3–3.8 GHz bands, but sometimes also at 2.3 or 2.5 GHz. Fixed WiMAX products can be FDD or TDD. Mobile networks will likely be deployed at 2.5 GHz (in TDD spectrum), but also at 2.3 GHz in Korea. Initial mobile solutions will only be TDD. Multiband products are possible, but they are more expensive. 1/2008 page 14
  • 17. 3G Provides Mobile Broadband Today From a functionality perspective, devices with more capabilities are generally more expensive. For example, high-resolution displays, keyboards, touchscreens, memory, operating systems, and high- performance graphics or audio processors all add to the cost of a device. Most costs are not related to the air-interface technology in feature-rich mobile devices, and differences in modem cost become less significant. As a result of greater scale, 3G devices should have a cost advantage over WiMAX counterparts. Given limited initial WiMAX coverage, it’s also likely that early generations of mobile devices would require 3G radios (multimode) for ubiquitous use. Multimode functionality adds incremental costs (hardware, software, and testing) to WiMAX devices. 5.2 Number of Sites Drives Network Cost When comparing different WAN technologies, it is the number of sites required to provide service that determines the most cost-effective option. All technologies have comparable site costs. The example in Figure 9 illustrates how most site costs are not related to the choice of WAN technology. The dominant costs are backhaul, operations, site rental/installation, and base stations. Comparable (same-class) base stations of different technologies should cost roughly the same. The most expensive base station components (power amplifiers, antennas, etc.) are similar if not identical. In fact, many vendors have exactly the same base station chassis across technologies; the digital card is the principal difference between these base stations. When evaluating different technology options, it’s also important to compare similar deployment configurations. It is unrealistic to compare the cost of a 3G WAN network deployed for mobility to the cost of a WiMAX network deployed for nomadic access or point-to-point backhaul for enterprises. Both 3G and WiMAX are capable of providing single-cell omni-directional or directional coverage. However, most 3G deployments are cellular WANs. WANs are typically deployed for capacity or coverage. 1/2008 page 15
  • 18. 3G Provides Mobile Broadband Today Fixed/Nomadic Voice + Data Network Example Seven-Year Depreciated Capital (% of Total • 600 MOU /Sub/Month Capital Network Expense) 38% • 1000 MB /Sub/Month Expense Ancillary Equipment 1% Installation/Shipping 11% Ancillary Equipment Site Acquisition 1% Internet Interconnect Installation/Shipping Project Management 0% Site Acquisition RF Eng / Test Equip 1% Project Mgt. BTS 12% RF Eng / Test Equip Backhaul BSC 8% CoreNet – BTS Circuit-Switched 0% CoreNet – Packet-Switched 3% Other 1% Software Upgrade BSC Training MSC Spares Core Network Utilities Operating Expense Other (% of Total Network Operations Expense) 62% Site Rental Site Rental 12% Operations 13% Operating Utilities 3% Expense Spares 2% Training 1% Notes: Software Upgrade 1% • Urban morphology (10K Pops/Sq Km) Backhaul 25% Internet Interconnect 5% • Wireless penetration: 50% • Operator market share: 25% • Local call termination charges and long-distance transport costs are not included in the network expense calculations • Spectrum available: 2X10MHz @ 800MHz Figure 9. Network Cost Breakdown Example 1/2008 page 16
  • 19. 3G Provides Mobile Broadband Today 5.2.1 Capacity Comparison Urban and dense suburban WANs are typically deployed for capacity. In order to evaluate the capacity of wireless networks, various methodologies are often employed, including 3GPP/3GPP2 and NGMN, to simulate system performance. 3GPP/3GPP2 methodologies have been employed in the industry for many years and are widely accepted. Simulation results vary with methodology (e.g., NGMN, 3GPP/PP2) and different models can accentuate or minimize the impact of technology designs; nevertheless, the performance trend is consistent when technologies are compared on an equal basis. 3G technologies consistently provide greater capacity than WiMAX, in all NGMN and 3GPP/3GPP2 cases, using a comparable amount of spectrum. Figure 10, employing PP/PP2 methodologies, exemplifies this trend. 3G’s greater capacity results from lower overhead and more efficient design. High WiMAX overhead results from inefficient resource Simulation assumptions: allocation techniques that are intrinsic to the 802.16e standard; they • SIMO full buffer, physical-layer cannot be remedied in certified product implementations. performance • 3GPP2 (DOrA, DOrB, UMB, 802.16e WiMAX) and 3GPP (HSPA) framework used DL Capacity in 10 MHz (Mbps) • DV channel model mix 25 • Equalizer gain simulated 20 for DOrA, DOrB and HSPA (R7) 15 • HSPA: 5 MHz FDD carrier 9.72 11.9 with 16-QAM; 2 carriers 8.98 9.2 in 2x10 MHz; 64 QAM provides 10 ~2.5% gain 5.4* 5 • DOrA and DOrB: 1.25 MHz FDD carrier; 7 carriers in 2x10 MHz 0 WiMAX DOrA DOrB HSPA UMB • 802,16e WiMAX: sector capacity for 10 MHz TDD 2:1 carrier is Figure 10. Normalized 10 MHz Downlink Capacity Comparison 3 Mbps, scaled 1.5x to 10 MHz effective FL bandwidth * 802.16e WiMAX control channel overhead from MAP messages reduces capacity available for data 1/2008 page 17
  • 20. 3G Provides Mobile Broadband Today In brief, the 16e-WiMAX broadcast-control-channel design requires that a large downlink messages be sent with every downlink sub- frame to tell all devices where and when to receive and transmit data. For reliability reasons, these messages have to be sent at the lowest data rate, consuming a large portion of sub-frame. The more heavily loaded the network, the more allocations are required, and the larger these messages. Application data can only occupy the remainder of the sub-frame. Various vendors and several operators planning to deploy WiMAX networks for mobility have indicated that a reuse-3 configuration is needed for data sub-channels. This would further reduce the spectral efficiency of a WiMAX network, as two-thirds of dedicated spectrum would not be used. For example, an operator with 15 MHz of spectrum could only deploy one 5 MHz carrier per sector in a reuse- 3 configuration. It is possible that WiMAX networks for fixed services could employ reuse-1 for data sub-channels, and reuse-3 for the control sub-channel, to improve capacity and spectral efficiency. VoIP capacity is important, because many operators envisioning mobile-broadband services consider a voice offering a necessity for a profitable business case. Low overhead and comprehensive QoS allow 3G to provide a superior mix of VoIP and data. By comparison, WiMAX provides poor voice and poor mixed voice+data capacity. Simulations based on 3GPP2 assumptions suggest that WiMAX voice capacity should be slightly better than analog, but less than 2G and much less than 3G. Frequent allocations needed to schedule voice traffic increase WiMAX signaling overhead (to the detriment of data capacity). 5.2.2 Coverage Comparison Rural and less-dense suburban networks are usually deployed for coverage. Link budget determines cell radius, and in turn cell area. A simplified coverage explanation: the number of cells required to cover a given region decreases, as the cell area provided by a technology increases. 1/2008 page 18
  • 21. 3G Provides Mobile Broadband Today Comparing cell area/radius, 3G requires fewer sites than WiMAX, even when deployed at similar frequencies (Table 1). 3G networks are typically deployed at lower frequencies than WiMAX, and have better propagation characteristics. FDD technologies like 3G also have better link budgets than TDD technologies like 16e- WiMAX. TDD mobiles only transmit part of the time, and require more power to achieve the same data rate as FDD mobiles at the same distance. This results in a decreased cell radius for TDD technologies, as mobiles are power-limited. 3G systems also have airlink design advantages that provide incrementally better link budget over WiMAX. Link budget is also important for dense urban scenarios where in-building penetration is crucial. Most broadband services are likely to be consumed indoors. Cell Size Comparison for Mobile Deployment Scenario (Rural) Reverse Link (middle loading) DOrA HSUPA UMB UMB UMB 802.16e 802.16e TDD Duplexing FDD FDD FDD FDD 2:1 TDD 2:1 TDD 2:1 Frequency Band (MHz) 1900 1900 1900 2500 2500 2500 3500 Data Rate [kbps] 67.7 56.0 70.5 70.5 70.5 60.4 60.4 General MAPL [dB] 143.0 141.3 143.0 143.0 139.3 133.6 134.6 Rural MAPL [dB] 133.0 131.3 133.0 133.0 129.3 123.6 124.6 Rural Antenna Height [m] 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 Rural Radius [km] 8.5 7.5 8.5 7.2 5.6 3.8 3.3 Rural Cell Area (sq km) 186.6 146.3 186.2 134.0 80.2 37.1 29.2 Table 1: (Reverse Link) Link-Budget Comparison: 3G and 802.16e Cell Radii and Cell Areas * Assuming a cell-edge target data-rate of 64Kbps @ 1% PER on the UL In summary, under similar conditions, 3G provides capacity and coverage advantages for various deployment scenarios—including for simulations that employ 3GPP/PP2 to NGMN models; for WANs, hotzones, and hotspots; and for fixed, nomadic, and mobile scenarios. 1/2008 page 19
  • 22. 3G Provides Mobile Broadband Today Coverage or capacity governs the number of sites for all scenarios, and, by extension, network costs. Although various operators have considered deploying WiMAX as a broadband overlay to 2G voice networks, 3G is a more natural and complementary alternative that provides lower cost, more deployment flexibility, improved performance, and better integration. [6] Evolution As with preceding generations, 3G technologies will continue to evolve, with timely improvements for greater capacity, lower cost, and higher data rates to support a myriad of voice and data services. As detailed in Figure 11, 3G has a strong, well-developed evolution path with many successive enhancements; 3G is also being integrated with complementary technologies (like 802.11x and MediaFLO/DVB-H) that are evolving in parallel. Evolution of 3G Mobile Broadband UMB LTE DL: 288 Mbps peak DL: 278 Mbps peak UL: 75 Mbps peak UL: 75 Mbps peak HSPA+ Rev. B DL: 14-42 Mbps peak DL: 6.2-73 Mbps peak UL: 11 Mbps peak UL: 3.6-27 Mbps peak HSUPA Rev. A DL: 1.8-14 Mbps peak DL: 3.1 Mbps peak UL: 5.7 Mbps peak UL: 1.8 Mbps peak HSDPA EV-DO DL: 1.8-14 Mbps peak DL: 2.4 Mbps peak UL: 384 kbps peak UL:153 kbps peak WCDMA C2K 1X DL: 384 kbps DL:153 kbps UL: 384 kbps UL:153 kbps Figure 11. Evolution of 3G Mobile Broadband Technologies 1/2008 page 20
  • 23. 3G Provides Mobile Broadband Today In the future, a multitude of layered wireless and wired networks will interoperate to provide all forms of communication, information, and entertainment. As illustrated in Figure 12, anytime, anywhere mobile broadband will be provided by many different technologies, with the reach and scale of mobile WANs being the most pervasive. Opportunities exist, and will continue to exist, for many technologies to play a part in this future—with the most appropriate technologies being applied to the relevant scenarios. Figure 12. Layered Broadband Networks UMB and LTE are optimized mobile OFDMA solutions with advanced antenna techniques that leverage wider bandwidths (20 MHz), provide peak rates of 280 Mbps (in 20 MHz FDD), and address both FDD and TDD spectrum. 3G assures backward compatibility and future interoperability. Compatibility with the installed base has always been part of the cellular industry’s philosophy (at times with painful implications). 3G protects operator investments by ensuring backward compatibility, from standard specification to rigorous field tests. 3G technologies are backward- compatible through Rev. B and HSPA+; by design, UMB and LTE will provide seamless interoperability with 3G networks. In contrast, 802.16d- and 802.16e-based WiMAX products are incompatible. 1/2008 page 21
  • 24. 3G Provides Mobile Broadband Today [7] Conclusions Global demand for broadband is growing significantly and continues to outpace availability. In general, communication services are trending toward ubiquitous access as the line between fixed and mobile usage blurs. Strong, sustained consumer demand for mobile voice services has created an enormously successful global ecosystem, with numerous operators providing services and vendors delivering products. With significant scale and maturity, the 3G industry is well-positioned to deliver mobile broadband to an enormous installed base of customers, while reaching out to new ones. 3G’s growing scale is leading to more-affordable, more-capable devices across all market segments. This fact, in conjunction with growing yet pervasive global coverage, increases the likelihood that 3G devices will maintain an advantage over their WiMAX analogs. Network expenses are dominated by the number of sites, and simulation results show that 3G should require fewer sites than WiMAX. With greater capacity and coverage in equivalent scenarios, overall 3G network costs again show an advantage. The versatility of 3G systems to support all IP-based applications with robust QoS is enabling operators to bring to market a wide range of creative VoIP and data services. While 3G systems perform better than WiMAX today, it is also likely that they will continue to do so as their evolutions introduce class-leading OFDMA and MIMO solutions. Rev. B and HSPA+, followed by UMB and LTE, will provide higher data rates, and enable operators to leverage wider allocations as more spectrum becomes available and the demand for increased performance grows. © 2007 Qualcomm Incorporated. All rights reserved. Qualcomm is a registered trademark of Qualcomm Incorporated. MedialFLO is a trademark of Qualcomm Incorporated. UMB is a trademark of the Telecommunications Industry Association. WiMAX is a trademark of the WiMAX Forum. CDMA2000 is a registered trademark of the CDMA Development Group. Bluetooth is a registered trademark of the Bluetooth SIG, Inc. Wi-Fi is a trademark of the Wi-Fi Alliance. All other trademarks are property of their respective owners. Qualcomm asserts that all information is correct through December 2007. 1/2008 page 22