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3G Broadband and Beyond – A Success Story
 

3G Broadband and Beyond – A Success Story

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    3G Broadband and Beyond – A Success Story 3G Broadband and Beyond – A Success Story Presentation Transcript

    • 3G Broadband and Beyond – A Success Story September 2008
    • 3G Offers Mobile Broadband Today Global Mobile Broadband connections have risen by more than 850 percent year-on-year (Q1 CY07 – Q1 CY08), driven primarily from 3G (EV-DO and HSPA) –Wireless Intelligence HSPA helped drive mobile data revenue growth of 46.1 per cent and wireless broadband revenue growth of 205 per cent in the first half of 2007/08.” -Dr. Hugh Bradlow, CTO, Telstra StarHub consumer and corporate customers will now be able to experience high-speed access in Singapore of up to 7.2Mbps downlink and up to 1.9Mbps uplink with the use of HSDPA and HSUPA technologies respectively. -3G.co.uk, 2nd August, 2007 All trademarks, names of other companies, logos, products and services may be the property of their respective owners 2
    • 3G Offers Fixed/Nomadic Broadband Today Source: 2
    • 3G Operators Provide a Wide Range of Services All trademarks, names of other companies, logos, products and services may be the property of their respective owners 4
    • Growth of 3G is Surpassing That of 2G Western Europe sees surge in WCDMA subscriber growth, while GSM continues to decline 14.6 14.6 Millions million million Western Europe Net Subscriber Additions by Quarter 16 14 WCDMA 12 GSM 10 -2 million -2 million 8 6 4 2 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 -2 2004 2004 2004 2004 2005 2005 2005 2005 2006 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 -4 Q1 2007 saw the first decline in GSM net additions in Western Europe Q1 2007 saw the first decline in GSM net additions in Western Europe Source: Wireless Intelligence, Dec 2007 5
    • Wireless Broadband Evolution Trends Network Evolution Mobile Device Evolution Service Evolution • Co-existence of multiple • Convergence of Computing, • Trends from wired to wireless technologies Communication, & CE wireless • Common IP-based core • Multimode devices • Same rich IP apps networks everywhere 6
    • Convergence of Computing, Communication and CE Verizon is a registered trademark of Verizon. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners. Note: Products sold for use in U.S. are in compliance with recent ITC and Federal Court rulings. 7
    • CE Market Opportunities are Here Today User-Generated Computing Gaming Books Entertainment Content Samsung’s Q1 Ultra UMPC Nintendo’s DS Amazon’s Kindle & Samsung’s VLUU i70 Cowon’s Q5 PMP Polymer Vision’s Librofonino All trademarks, names of other companies, logos, products and services may be the property of their respective owners. 8
    • Sprint & Amazon eBook – Example of a New Service Model Kindle • Launched in November, 2007 • Service - A wireless portable reading device providing access to books, blogs, magazines, and newspapers using high-speed EV-DO network. - Over 300 newspapers, blogs, and magazines, and 90,000 books are available and can be downloaded in less than a minute. - Delivers new content wirelessly, without a PC, Wi-Fi hot spot, or syncing. - No monthly subscriptions or commitments for the service. - Built in dictionary and Wikipedia. • Price: - $9.99 per book - $399 for the device - Subscriptions: -Kindle magazines: $1.25 - $3.49 per month -Kindle newspapers: $5.99 - $14.99 per month -Blogs - 99¢ each per month 9
    • Convergence of Devices & Services 1G 2G 3G & Beyond + + + + + Mobile Rich User Generated Content/ Communication Information Entertainment / CE Social Networking Computing Communication PHONE EVOLUTION Connected Devices CONVERGENCE Connected Applications Bluetooth Headsets Rich Content Multi-Function CE OF DEVICES Computing Applications Mobile Computing & SERVICES High-Speed Access PC EVOLUTION + + + + + Simple Rich User Generated Computing Communication Information Content/ Social Entertainment Communication Networking 10
    • Choice of Layered Networks with Common IP Core Opportunities abound for many technologies in the broadband future 4G Is Less about Performance than Ubiquitous Broadband Experience and Seamless Interoperability between Successful Wireless Technologies High-performance 3G-WANs, with greatest coverage & scale, will provide ubiquitous broadband to billions of users 11
    • Ecosystem Economics Evolution Successful mass-market mobile broadband technologies excel at the 3 E’s
    • 1) Ecosystem A thriving ecosystem includes successful operators generating revenue for their services, and innovative vendors/developers creating products/services that meet operators’ needs and fuel customer demand.
    • 670 Million+ Subscribers on 3G Networks Today 492 Commercial Networks 127 EV-DO (35 Rev. A) 194 HSDPA (34 HSUPA) Source: Wireless Intelligence 276 CDMA2000 1X 216 WCDMA 14
    • Growth of 3G Broadband Subscribers Is Explosive and Accelerating 3G will drive the majority of mobile broadband 825 connections well into the next decade 25% 67% 5% 3G HSPA Family 3G EV-DO Family 551 3G will command WiMAX 92% of the Mobile Others, including TD-SCDMA, LTE and UMB Broadband market in 2012 332 307 261 218 176 181 138 91 67 60 24 25 40 4 8 15 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Sources: Strategy Analytics, July 2007; Informa, September 2007. HSPA Family includes HSDPA, HSUPA & HSPA+. EV-DO Family includes Rel. 0, Rev. A and Rev. B. 15
    • Vendors and Operators Are Realizing Significant Revenues from 3G 2009 Worldwide Revenue Estimates (Billions) Sources: Blended forecast from Strategy Analytics (2006), Gartner (2006) and Forward Concepts (2005) 16
    • 3G Offers Great Diversity Across All Segments 535 EV-DO devices / 107 vendors; 420 HSPA devices / 94 vendors All Market Segments Mobile/Nomadic/Fixed Enterprise/Consumer • Ethernet/Cable/DSL-Class Performance • Handsets and PC cards All Device Segments • Consumer Electronics • Ultra mobile devices • Embedded laptops • Desktops Sources: CDG, GSA. 17
    • 2) Economics As operators evaluate options for rolling out wireless data services, they carefully assess each competing technology’s potential to maximize revenue while minimizing cost.
    • 3G Supports the Entire Range of IP Services • Video/Music • Telco-quality VoIP • Low-Latency Gaming • Push to Talk / Push to Media • Multimedia Upload/Exchange • High-Speed Web Browsing • Streaming/Downloads • Video Telephony • Service Tiering • Multicasting Enabled by 3G’s Integrated Quality of Service (QoS) support, high capacity and low latency 19
    • Operators Worldwide Show Data YoY Growth Source: Verizon, Vodafone Group, AT&T, Telstra 20
    • 3G Device Cost Declining as Scale Increases $90 CDMA2000 Handsets Costs $82 $83 $77 $69 $70 $70 $68 $68 $57 $59 $55 $55 $50 $51 $49 $49$48 $50 $43$42 $41 $37 $35 $35 $35 $28 $30 WCDMA & CDMA2000 $24 $26$24 $23 $20 $20 Worldwide Handset Shipments (Millions) 800 $10 53%* 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 700 600 Lowest 10% Lowest priced 500 400 730 683 300 565 $450 WCDMA Handset Costs 22%* 454 $407 200 351 267 $367 100 193 $341 $350 0 $311 $290$287$290 $295 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 $272 $270$270 $254 $250 $228 $231 $217 $221 $197 $198 $195 $191 $181 * Percentage of total handset shipments $176 Source: Average of Gartner Group (Dec 2006), Strategy Analytics (Oct 2006), ABI (Q1 2007), $141 $141 $150 $129 $128 $128 $135 IDC (Dec 2006) and Yankee Group (Dec 2006) handset forecasts $124 $105 $50 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 Lowest 10% Lowest Price 21
    • Minimizing Number of Sites Is Important • Cost of each cell site is similar for all broadband technologies • Technologies requiring fewer sites have lower overall network cost 3G Network Example: Fixed/Nomadic Voice + Data Service Ancillary Equipment Capital • 600 MOU /Sub/Month Capital (% of Total Network Expense) 38% • 1000 MB /Sub/Month Ancillary Equipment 1% Installation/Shipping Expenses Installation/Shipping 11% Site Acquisition 1% Internet Interconnect Project Management 0% Site Acquisition RF Eng / Test Equip 1% BTS 12% Project Mgt. BSC 8% MSC 0% RF Eng / Test Equip Core Network 3% Other 1% Operating Expense Backhaul (% of Total Network Expense) 62% Site Rental 12% Operations 13% Utilities 3% BTS Spares 2% Training 1% Software Upgrade 1% Backhaul 25% Internet Interconnect 5% BSC Software Upgrade Training Spares MSC Notes: • Urban morphology (10K Pops/SqKm) Utilities Core Netw ork • Wireless penetration: 50% • Operator market share: 25% Other • Local call termination charges and long distance transport costs are not included in the network Operations expense calculations • Spectrum available: 2X10MHz @ 800MHz Operating Site Rental Expenses 22
    • 3) Evolution As with preceding generations, 3G technologies will continue to evolve, with timely improvements for greater capacity, lower cost, and higher data rates to support a myriad of voice and data services.
    • 3G Technologies Have Strong Evolution Paths Excellent Mobile Broadband Enhanced User Experience Voice and Full Range of IP Services Improved voice and data capacity CDMA2000 1x Advanced 1X EV-DO EV-DO EV-DO EV-DO Rev B Rev B DO Advanced Rel 0 Rev A Phase I Phase II Rel-99 Rel-5 (HSDPA) Rel-6 (HSUPA) Rel-7 Rel-8 Rel-9 & Beyond WCDMA HSPA HSPA+ (HSPA Evolved) Rel-8 Rel-9 OFDMA complements 3G Leverages wider bandwidths LTE UMB Created 7/01/08 Backward and forward compatibility Cost effective upgrades that leverage existing assets 24
    • Peak Data Rates – Achievable in Optimal Conditions Peak Data Rate EV-DO Enhancements EV-DO Rev. B Rev. B Rev. A Phase I Phase II DO Advanced Shared channel DL: 3.1 Mbps DL: 9.3 Mbps1 14.7 Mbps2 DL: 34.4 Mbps3 (downlink and uplink) 5 MHz 5 MHz >5 MHz 16/64QAM Rel-6 (HSUPA) Rel-7 Rel-8 Rel-9 & Beyond Higher order Modulation HSPA HSPA+ (HSPA Evolved) 2x2 MIMO DL: 1.8-14.4 Mbps DL: 28 Mbps DL: 42 Mbps4 DL: 84 Mbps5 5 MHz 5 MHz 10 MHz Multiple Input Multiple Output Rel-8 Rel-9 Wider bandwidth Multi carrier and/or OFDMA LTE DL: 71 - 143 Mbps6 10 MHz to 20 MHz Combinations 1Peak rate for 3 EV-DO carriers supported by initial implementation. 2Peak rate for 3 EV-DO carriers with 64 QAM in the DL. Standard supports up to of HOM, MIMO and 15 aggregated Rev. A carriers. Multi carrier 3DO Advanced peak rate for 4 EV-DO carriers as expected for initial implementation, assumes 2x2 MIMO and 64QAM in the DL. UMB 4R8 will reach 42 Mbps by combining 2x2 MIMO and HOM (64 QAM) in 5MHz, or by utilizing HOM (64 QAM) and multi carrier in 10 MHz. Even Higher order 5R9 and beyond may utilize combinations of multi carrier and MIMO to reach 84 MIMO and HOM Mbps peak rates. 6Peak rates for 10 and 20 MHz FDD using 2x2 MIMO, the standard supports 4x4 DL: 71 - 135 Mbps6 MIMO enabling peak rates of 278 Mbps for LTE and 288 Mbps for UMB. TDD rates are a function of up/downlink asymmetry 10 MHz to 20 MHz Created 7/1/08 Enhancements available to both CDMA and OFDMA 25
    • Many Technologies Needed to Economically Deliver Broadband Experience Everywhere 26
    • LTE Complements Existing 3G Networks LTE HSPA+ • Address high-traffic areas with LTE Multimode – 3G provides ubiquitous coverage Industry’s first LTE/3G • Seamless service continuity with 3G multimode solutions – Seamless handoffs through multimode devices LTE LTE HSPA+/Rev. B Rev. B • Evolved 3G provides similar user experience Multimode Multimode outside the LTE coverage LTE 3G Coverage (HSPA/HSPA+ or EV-DO Rev A/B) 27
    • Qualcomm Business Model 28
    • Qualcomm Invests Significantly in a Complete Technology Roadmap Qualcomm Yearly R&D Expenditures 29
    • Qualcomm Has Helped to Enable a $350+B Industry Industry: - CDMA/WCDMA Infrastructure Revenues - CDMA/WCDMA Handset Revenues - CDMA/WCDMA Service Revenues Sources: Qualcomm Revenues – Company reports Handset, Infrastructure and Service Revenues – Strategy Analytics, 2007 30
    • Qualcomm Provides Broadest Solutions for Every Mobile Device Segment TECHNOLOGY QSD Wireless & Consumer • Industry leader in modem technology Convergence • Best-in-class RF & PMIC • Highest level of system integration – Modem, Multimedia, RF, PMIC, Software MSM HLOS Phones • Leading-edge process & packaging 7K VGA/WVGA MSM Mainstream MM 6K Broadcast CUSTOMERS QVGA/WQVGA Over 50 customers Launched ~300 devices in 2007 Single Chip More than 350 devices in design QSC Entry Level and production Launching >30 phones per month 31
    • Highly-Integrated Chip Solutions Software + Smaller Form Factor CDMA, DO Micro- Processor Longer Battery GSM/GPRS, Edge, WCDMA, Life HSPA GPS DSP 3D Graphics Lower Overall DSP Video Costs Audio Memory Imaging 32
    • Summary 3G offers excellent wireless broadband today Supports all services, market/device segments with excellent economics 3G has a strong evolution path Higher capacity, peak and user data rates, enhanced user experience CDMA and OFDMA will provide similar performance Topology will provide gains beyond technology LTE complements 3G and its evolution Leverages new and wider spectrum up to 20 MHz Qualcomm is a key contributor to 3G and beyond Significant investments in EV-DO, HSPA(+), LTE, 1X-Advanced 33
    • Thank You