Velocity is NOT the Goal - PNSQC

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Updated version of this talk as presented at Pacific Northwest Software Quality Conference in 2012. This is a longer version, including content on scatter diagrams and standard deviation.

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Velocity is NOT the Goal - PNSQC

  1. 1. Agile Metrics: Velocity is Not the Goal.Michael “Doc” Norton ◊ @DocOnDev ◊ doc@leandog.com
  2. 2. What’s “Agile” Velocity?Work units delivered over time
  3. 3. Trailing IndicatorTells us about the health of the project
  4. 4. Planning By Velocity
  5. 5. 30 30 29 28 28 28 28 27 2724 25 241812 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 VelocityVelocity Graph
  6. 6. 30 30 29 28 28 28 28 27 2724 25 2418126 30 25 28 27 28 29 28 24 28 300 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Weather ActualYesterday s Weather
  7. 7. Ideal Actual Estimate 500 375 250 125 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20Burn Down
  8. 8. 30 30 29 28 28 28 28 27 2724 25 2418126 30 30 25 25 28 27 27 27 28 28 29 28 28 28 24 26 28 27 30 270 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Weather Rolling ActualRolling Average
  9. 9. Ideal Actual Estimate 500 375 250 125 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20Burn Down
  10. 10. Do you feel Confident?
  11. 11. Standard Deviation
  12. 12. Standard Deviation Basics
  13. 13. ?
  14. 14. Standard Deviation Basics
  15. 15. Calculate the mean (average) of the populationCompute the difference of each data point fromthe mean, and square the result of eachCompute the average of these values, and takethe square root Standard Deviation Basics
  16. 16. 30 30 29 28 28 28 28 27 2724 25 2418 (25+28+27+28+29+28+24+28+30+27)/10 = 27.412 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 VelocityCalculate the mean
  17. 17. 30 30 29 28 28 28 28 27 2724 25 24 (25+28+27+28+29+28+24+28+30+27)/10 = 27.418 (25-27.4)**2 = (-2.4)**2 = 5.76 (28-27.4)**2 = (0.6)**2 = 0.36 (28-27.4)**2 = (0.6)**2 = 0.36 (24-27.4)**2 = (-3.4)**2 = 11.5612 (27-27.4)**2 = (-0.4)**2 = 0.16 (28-27.4)**2 = (0.6)**2 = 0.36 (28-27.4)**2 = (0.6)**2 = 0.36 (30-27.4)**2 = (2.6)**2 = 6.76 (29-27.4)**2 = (1.6)**2 = 2.56 (27-27.4)**2 = (-0.4)**2 = 0.16 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 VelocityTake differences and square
  18. 18. 30 30 29 28 28 28 28 27 2724 25 24 (25+28+27+28+29+28+24+28+30+27)/10 = 27.418 (25-27.4)**2 = (-2.4)**2 = 5.76 (28-27.4)**2 = (0.6)**2 = 0.36 (28-27.4)**2 = (0.6)**2 = 0.36 (24-27.4)**2 = (-3.4)**2 = 11.5612 (27-27.4)**2 = (-0.4)**2 = 0.16 (28-27.4)**2 = (0.6)**2 = 0.36 (28-27.4)**2 = (0.6)**2 = 0.36 (30-27.4)**2 = (2.6)**2 = 6.76 (29-27.4)**2 = (1.6)**2 = 2.56 (27-27.4)**2 = (-0.4)**2 = 0.16 6 (2.84)**1/2 = 1.685 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 VelocitySquare root of difference avg.
  19. 19. 30 30 29 28 28 28 28 27 2724 25 24 1.6851812 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 VelocityStandard Deviation
  20. 20. Ideal Actual Estimate High Low 500 375 250 125 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20Burn Down :: 1SD
  21. 21. Ideal Actual Estimate High Low 500 375 250 125 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21Burn Down :: 2SD
  22. 22. Set: 10,11,9,10 Set: 10,14,9,7Mean: 10 Mean: 10Rolling: 10 Rolling: 10Deviation: 0.7 Deviation: 2.5Velocity: 9.3-10.7 Velocity: 7.5-12.5 Standard Deviation Same Mean, Same Rolling, Different Deviation
  23. 23. 6, 11, 12, 10, 8, 7Calculate the mean (average) of the populationCompute the difference of each data point fromthe mean, and square the result of eachCompute the average of these values, and takethe square root Now you do it Calculate Standard Deviation & Predict Velocity
  24. 24. “You can’t manage what you can’t measure”
  25. 25. Says Who?
  26. 26. You can’t manage what you can’t measure.Dr. W. Edwards DemingFather of the Quality Evolution
  27. 27. T Don’t be ridiculous! N O in ly rt aC eDr. W. Edwards DemingFather of the Quality Evolution
  28. 28. Running a company on visible figures alone[is deadly]Dr. W. Edwards Deming Father of the Quality Evolution
  29. 29. Seven Deadly Diseases ofWestern ManagementLack of constancy of purposeEmphasis on short term profitsEvaluation of performance, merit rating, or annual reviewMobility of top managementRunning a company on visible figures aloneExcessive medical costsExcessive legal damage awards
  30. 30. The Hawthorn EffectThat which is measured, will improve
  31. 31. What matters is not settingquantitative goals but fixing the method bywhich those goals are attained Repair the root cause Rather than the symptoms
  32. 32. Unstable VelocityWhat does it mean?
  33. 33. Poor Story CompositionYou want consistent (small) stories
  34. 34. Too Much WIPGet the highest value done first
  35. 35. Dependency on Other TeamsGet everyone you need on the team
  36. 36. Stable VelocityIt won’t ever be perfect
  37. 37. Increase VelocityDo we always want to go faster?
  38. 38. Goodhart’s LawMaking a metric a target destroys the metric
  39. 39. What matters is not settingquantitative goals but fixing the method bywhich those goals are attained Repair the root cause Rather than the symptoms
  40. 40. ScatterDiagram
  41. 41. 200001500010000 5000 0 0 2 4 6 8Scatter DiagramsShows Correlation Between Two Variables
  42. 42. 5037.5 2512.5 0 0 25 50 75 100Velocity and ComplexityNegative Correlation
  43. 43. 5037.5 2512.5 0 0 10000 20000 30000 40000Velocity and ValueNo Correlation
  44. 44. 5037.5 2512.5 0 0 22.5 45 67.5 90Velocity and Test CoveragePositive Correlation
  45. 45. Cumulative Flow
  46. 46. Sample Backlog
  47. 47. Cumulative FlowVelocity doesn’t always tell us enough
  48. 48. 201510 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 VelocityVelocity GraphWhat story does this tell?
  49. 49. 201510 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 VelocityVelocity GraphWhat story does this tell?
  50. 50. 100 75 50 25 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Deployed Ready for Approval In Testing In Progress Ready To StartCumulative FlowWhat story does this tell?
  51. 51. WhatElse?
  52. 52. 16 12 8 4 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 VelocityBalanced MetricsWatch more than one
  53. 53. 16 50 12 37.5 8 25 4 12.5 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Velocity QualityBalanced MetricsWatch more than one
  54. 54. 16 50 12 37.5 8 25 4 12.5 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Velocity Quality Avg. HoursBalanced MetricsWatch more than one
  55. 55. 16 50 12 37.5 8 25 4 12.5 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Velocity Quality Avg. Hours Team JoyBalanced MetricsWatch more than one
  56. 56. Thank YouMichael “Doc” Norton ◊ @DocOnDev ◊ doc@leandog.com

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