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Velocity is NOT the Goal - PNSQC
 

Velocity is NOT the Goal - PNSQC

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Updated version of this talk as presented at Pacific Northwest Software Quality Conference in 2012. This is a longer version, including content on scatter diagrams and standard deviation.

Updated version of this talk as presented at Pacific Northwest Software Quality Conference in 2012. This is a longer version, including content on scatter diagrams and standard deviation.

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    Velocity is NOT the Goal - PNSQC Velocity is NOT the Goal - PNSQC Presentation Transcript

    • Agile Metrics: Velocity is Not the Goal.Michael “Doc” Norton ◊ @DocOnDev ◊ doc@leandog.com
    • What’s “Agile” Velocity?Work units delivered over time
    • Trailing IndicatorTells us about the health of the project
    • Planning By Velocity
    • 30 30 29 28 28 28 28 27 2724 25 241812 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 VelocityVelocity Graph
    • 30 30 29 28 28 28 28 27 2724 25 2418126 30 25 28 27 28 29 28 24 28 300 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Weather ActualYesterday s Weather
    • Ideal Actual Estimate 500 375 250 125 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20Burn Down
    • 30 30 29 28 28 28 28 27 2724 25 2418126 30 30 25 25 28 27 27 27 28 28 29 28 28 28 24 26 28 27 30 270 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Weather Rolling ActualRolling Average
    • Ideal Actual Estimate 500 375 250 125 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20Burn Down
    • Do you feel Confident?
    • Standard Deviation
    • Standard Deviation Basics
    • ?
    • Standard Deviation Basics
    • Calculate the mean (average) of the populationCompute the difference of each data point fromthe mean, and square the result of eachCompute the average of these values, and takethe square root Standard Deviation Basics
    • 30 30 29 28 28 28 28 27 2724 25 2418 (25+28+27+28+29+28+24+28+30+27)/10 = 27.412 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 VelocityCalculate the mean
    • 30 30 29 28 28 28 28 27 2724 25 24 (25+28+27+28+29+28+24+28+30+27)/10 = 27.418 (25-27.4)**2 = (-2.4)**2 = 5.76 (28-27.4)**2 = (0.6)**2 = 0.36 (28-27.4)**2 = (0.6)**2 = 0.36 (24-27.4)**2 = (-3.4)**2 = 11.5612 (27-27.4)**2 = (-0.4)**2 = 0.16 (28-27.4)**2 = (0.6)**2 = 0.36 (28-27.4)**2 = (0.6)**2 = 0.36 (30-27.4)**2 = (2.6)**2 = 6.76 (29-27.4)**2 = (1.6)**2 = 2.56 (27-27.4)**2 = (-0.4)**2 = 0.16 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 VelocityTake differences and square
    • 30 30 29 28 28 28 28 27 2724 25 24 (25+28+27+28+29+28+24+28+30+27)/10 = 27.418 (25-27.4)**2 = (-2.4)**2 = 5.76 (28-27.4)**2 = (0.6)**2 = 0.36 (28-27.4)**2 = (0.6)**2 = 0.36 (24-27.4)**2 = (-3.4)**2 = 11.5612 (27-27.4)**2 = (-0.4)**2 = 0.16 (28-27.4)**2 = (0.6)**2 = 0.36 (28-27.4)**2 = (0.6)**2 = 0.36 (30-27.4)**2 = (2.6)**2 = 6.76 (29-27.4)**2 = (1.6)**2 = 2.56 (27-27.4)**2 = (-0.4)**2 = 0.16 6 (2.84)**1/2 = 1.685 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 VelocitySquare root of difference avg.
    • 30 30 29 28 28 28 28 27 2724 25 24 1.6851812 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 VelocityStandard Deviation
    • Ideal Actual Estimate High Low 500 375 250 125 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20Burn Down :: 1SD
    • Ideal Actual Estimate High Low 500 375 250 125 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21Burn Down :: 2SD
    • Set: 10,11,9,10 Set: 10,14,9,7Mean: 10 Mean: 10Rolling: 10 Rolling: 10Deviation: 0.7 Deviation: 2.5Velocity: 9.3-10.7 Velocity: 7.5-12.5 Standard Deviation Same Mean, Same Rolling, Different Deviation
    • 6, 11, 12, 10, 8, 7Calculate the mean (average) of the populationCompute the difference of each data point fromthe mean, and square the result of eachCompute the average of these values, and takethe square root Now you do it Calculate Standard Deviation & Predict Velocity
    • “You can’t manage what you can’t measure”
    • Says Who?
    • You can’t manage what you can’t measure.Dr. W. Edwards DemingFather of the Quality Evolution
    • T Don’t be ridiculous! N O in ly rt aC eDr. W. Edwards DemingFather of the Quality Evolution
    • Running a company on visible figures alone[is deadly]Dr. W. Edwards Deming Father of the Quality Evolution
    • Seven Deadly Diseases ofWestern ManagementLack of constancy of purposeEmphasis on short term profitsEvaluation of performance, merit rating, or annual reviewMobility of top managementRunning a company on visible figures aloneExcessive medical costsExcessive legal damage awards
    • The Hawthorn EffectThat which is measured, will improve
    • What matters is not settingquantitative goals but fixing the method bywhich those goals are attained Repair the root cause Rather than the symptoms
    • Unstable VelocityWhat does it mean?
    • Poor Story CompositionYou want consistent (small) stories
    • Too Much WIPGet the highest value done first
    • Dependency on Other TeamsGet everyone you need on the team
    • Stable VelocityIt won’t ever be perfect
    • Increase VelocityDo we always want to go faster?
    • Goodhart’s LawMaking a metric a target destroys the metric
    • What matters is not settingquantitative goals but fixing the method bywhich those goals are attained Repair the root cause Rather than the symptoms
    • ScatterDiagram
    • 200001500010000 5000 0 0 2 4 6 8Scatter DiagramsShows Correlation Between Two Variables
    • 5037.5 2512.5 0 0 25 50 75 100Velocity and ComplexityNegative Correlation
    • 5037.5 2512.5 0 0 10000 20000 30000 40000Velocity and ValueNo Correlation
    • 5037.5 2512.5 0 0 22.5 45 67.5 90Velocity and Test CoveragePositive Correlation
    • Cumulative Flow
    • Sample Backlog
    • Cumulative FlowVelocity doesn’t always tell us enough
    • 201510 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 VelocityVelocity GraphWhat story does this tell?
    • 201510 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 VelocityVelocity GraphWhat story does this tell?
    • 100 75 50 25 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Deployed Ready for Approval In Testing In Progress Ready To StartCumulative FlowWhat story does this tell?
    • WhatElse?
    • 16 12 8 4 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 VelocityBalanced MetricsWatch more than one
    • 16 50 12 37.5 8 25 4 12.5 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Velocity QualityBalanced MetricsWatch more than one
    • 16 50 12 37.5 8 25 4 12.5 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Velocity Quality Avg. HoursBalanced MetricsWatch more than one
    • 16 50 12 37.5 8 25 4 12.5 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Velocity Quality Avg. Hours Team JoyBalanced MetricsWatch more than one
    • Thank YouMichael “Doc” Norton ◊ @DocOnDev ◊ doc@leandog.com