Velocity is not the goal code palo-usa

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Code PaLOUsa rendition of Velocity is NOT the Goal.

Velocity is one of the most common metrics used—and one of the most commonly misused—on agile projects. Velocity is simply a measurement of speed in a given direction—the rate at which a team is delivering toward a product release. As with a vehicle en route to a particular destination, increasing the speed may appear to ensure a timely arrival. However, that assumption is dangerous because it ignores the risks with higher speeds. And while it’s easy to increase a vehicle’s speed, where exactly is the accelerator on a software team? Michael “Doc" Norton walks us through the Hawthorne Effect and Goodhart’s Law to explain why setting goals for velocity can actually hurt a project's chances. Take a look at what can negatively impact velocity, ways to stabilize fluctuating velocity, and methods to improve velocity without the risks. Leave with a toolkit of additional metrics that, coupled with velocity, give a better view of the project's overall health.

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  • Excellent article. I have heard of functional managers talking about finding ways of increasing the teams' velocity because their goal for the team is to 'go faster' and the balanced metrics you have outlined greatly helps and justifiable.
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  • This is very well done and very nice to look at.
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Velocity is not the goal code palo-usa

  1. AgileMetricsVelocity isNOT the Goal
  2. Michael “Doc” NortonGrouponDirector of Engineeringdoc@groupon.com@DocOnDevHusband Father
  3. GRANDFATHERHE’S SOOO CUTE!!
  4. What is “Agile Velocity”?
  5. WORK UNITS DELIVERED OVER TIMEUMMM.... WOULDN’T THAT BE “AGILE SPEED”?
  6. A LAGGING INDICATORTELLS US ABOUT SOMETHING THAT ALREADY HAPPENED
  7. PLANNING BY VELOCITYUSING THE PAST TO PREDICT THE FUTURE01020304003-Dec17-Dec31-Dec14-Jan
  8. Ideal Burn Down01252503755001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20Ideal
  9. Velocity Graph06121824301 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1025282728292824283027Velocity
  10. Yesterday’s Weather06121824301 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1030 25 28 27 28 29 28 24 28 3025282728292824283027Weather Actual
  11. Weather Burn Down01252503755001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20Ideal Actual Estimate
  12. THAT DOESN’T APPLY HERE, TONY.I’M SURE WE CAN MAKE THIS BETTER
  13. Rolling Average06121824301 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1030 25 27 27 28 28 28 26 27 2730 25 28 27 28 29 28 24 28 3025282728292824283027Weather Rolling Actual
  14. Rolling Burn Down01252503755001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20Ideal Actual Estimate
  15. All The Burn Downs01252503755001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19Ideal Actual Rolling Weather
  16. DO YOU FEEL CONFIDENT?ARE THESE NUMBERS GOOD?
  17. STANDARD DEVIATIONSHOWING OUR CONFIDENCE
  18. Standard Deviation:The Basics
  19. IT’S NOT THAT HARDLET’S BREAK IT DOWN
  20. Standard Deviation:Break-Down
  21. Standard Deviation:Break-DownCALCULATE THE MEAN OF THEPOPULATION
  22. Standard Deviation:Break-DownSUBTRACT THE MEAN FROM EACHITEM AND SQUARE THE RESULT
  23. Standard Deviation:Break-DownAVERAGE THOSE RESULTS ANDGET THE SQUARE ROOT
  24. Calculate the Mean06121824301 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1025282728292824283027Velocity(25+28+27+28+29+28+24+28+30+27)/10 = 27.4
  25. SORRY, TONY.JUST LET ME DO THIS ONE THING.“I feel likeyou’re notreally hearingme.”- Tony Robbins
  26. Square the differences06121824301 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1025282728292824283027Velocity(25-27.4)**2 = (-2.4)**2 = 5.76(28-27.4)**2 = (0.6)**2 = 0.36(27-27.4)**2 = (-0.4)**2 = 0.16(28-27.4)**2 = (0.6)**2 = 0.36(29-27.4)**2 = (1.6)**2 = 2.56(28-27.4)**2 = (0.6)**2 = 0.36(24-27.4)**2 = (-3.4)**2 = 11.56(28-27.4)**2 = (0.6)**2 = 0.36(30-27.4)**2 = (2.6)**2 = 6.76(27-27.4)**2 = (-0.4)**2 = 0.16(25+28+27+28+29+28+24+28+30+27)/10 = 27.4
  27. Square Root Result Mean06121824301 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1025282728292824283027Velocity(25-27.4)**2 = (-2.4)**2 = 5.76(28-27.4)**2 = (0.6)**2 = 0.36(27-27.4)**2 = (-0.4)**2 = 0.16(28-27.4)**2 = (0.6)**2 = 0.36(29-27.4)**2 = (1.6)**2 = 2.56(28-27.4)**2 = (0.6)**2 = 0.36(24-27.4)**2 = (-3.4)**2 = 11.56(28-27.4)**2 = (0.6)**2 = 0.36(30-27.4)**2 = (2.6)**2 = 6.76(27-27.4)**2 = (-0.4)**2 = 0.16(25+28+27+28+29+28+24+28+30+27)/10 = 27.4(2.84)**1/2 = 1.685
  28. Standard Deviation Is:06121824301 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1025282728292824283027Velocity1.685
  29. Burn Downs w/1SD01252503755001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20Ideal Actual Estimate High Low
  30. Burn Downs w/2SD01252503755001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21Ideal Actual Estimate High Low
  31. Set A:10, 11, 9, 10Set B:10, 14, 9, 7
  32. Set A:10, 11, 9, 10Set B:10, 14, 9, 7Mean: 10 Mean: 10
  33. Rolling: 10 Rolling: 10Set A:10, 11, 9, 10Set B:10, 14, 9, 7Mean: 10 Mean: 10
  34. Deviation: 0.7 Deviation: 2.5Rolling: 10 Rolling: 10Set A:10, 11, 9, 10Set B:10, 14, 9, 7Mean: 10 Mean: 10
  35. Deviation: 0.7 Deviation: 2.5Rolling: 10 Rolling: 10Set A:10, 11, 9, 10Set B:10, 14, 9, 7Mean: 10 Mean: 10Vel: 9.3-10.7 Vel: 7.5-12.5
  36. WHOOPS.NOW TONY’S ANGRY.“You knowwhat? Just...Do what youwant. I don’tcare.”- Tony Robbins
  37. YOU CAN’T MANAGE WHAT YOU CAN’T MEASURESAYS WHO?
  38. SAYS WHO?
  39. SAYS WHO?
  40. Dr. W.EdwardsDemingFather of the QualityEvolutionYou can’tmanage what youcan’t measure.
  41. Dr. W.EdwardsDemingFather of the QualityEvolutionDon’t be ridiculous!
  42. Dr. W.EdwardsDemingFather of the QualityEvolutionRunninga company onvisible figures alone[is deadly]
  43. Seven Deadly DiseasesofWestern Management1) Lack of constancy of purpose2) Emphasis on short-term profit3) Evaluation of performance, merit rating or annual reviews4) Mobility of top management5) Running a company on visible figures alone6) Excessive medical costs7) Excessive legal damage awards
  44. THE HAWTHORN EFFECTTHAT WHICH IS MEASURED, WILL IMPROVE
  45. Whatmatters is notsettingquantitativegoals but fixingthe method bywhich thosegoals areattainedREPAIR THE ROOT CAUSESRATHER THAN THE SYMPTOMS
  46. INSTABLE VELOCITYWHAT DOES IT TELL US?
  47. POOR STORY COMPOSITIONYOU WANT CONSISTENT (SMALL) STORIES
  48. TOO MUCH WIPGET THE HIGHEST VALUE DONE FIRST
  49. DEPENDENCY ON OTHER TEAMGET EVERYONE YOU NEED ON THE TEAM
  50. STABLE VELOCITYIT WON’T EVER BE PERFECT
  51. INCREASE VELOCITYDO WE ALWAYS WANT TO GO FASTER?
  52. GOODHART’S LAWMAKING A TARGET FOR A METRIC DESTROYS THE METRIC (AND THE TARGET)
  53. Whatmatters is notsettingquantitativegoals but fixingthe method bywhich thosegoals areattainedREPAIR THE ROOT CAUSESRATHER THAN THE SYMPTOMS
  54. Scatter Diagrams
  55. Scatter Diagrams050001000015000200000 2 4 6 8
  56. Velocity & Complexity012.52537.5500 25 50 75 100
  57. Velocity & Value012.52537.5500 10000 20000 30000 40000
  58. Velocity & Coverage012.52537.5500 22.5 45 67.5 90
  59. Cumulative Flow Diagrams
  60. SAMPLE BACKLOGWHAT MATTERS HERE IS THE STAGES OF WORK
  61. CUMULATIVE FLOW DIAGRAMVELOCITY DOESN’T ALWAYS TELL US ENOUGH
  62. What does this tell us?051015201 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Velocity
  63. What does this tell us?02550751001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Deployed Ready for Approval In Testing In Progress Ready To Start
  64. Balanced Metrics
  65. Balanced Metrics04812161 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15Velocity
  66. Balanced Metrics04812161 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15012.52537.550Velocity Quality
  67. Balanced Metrics04812161 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15012.52537.550Velocity Quality Avg. Hours
  68. Balanced Metrics04812161 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15012.52537.550Velocity Quality Avg. Hours Team Joy
  69. Michael “Doc” NortonGrouponDirector of Engineeringdoc@groupon.com@DocOnDevTHANKYOU!
  70. AttributionsPlanning By Velocity Photohttp://www.flickr.com/photos/carfull/4984803509/sizes/l/in/photostream/Are You Confident Photohttp://www.brookston.org/photoblog/images/20060113083815_thumbs_up.jpgHugh Laurie Photohttp://www.freakingnews.com/pictures/58000/Hugh-Laurie-with-a-Thermometer-58178.jpgBack to The Futurehttp://www.wallpaperdev.com/imageres/1920x1440-back-to-the-future-wallpaper-hd.jpgSuccess Babyhttp://ncclassof2013.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/success.jpgDouble Dutchess (Standard Deviants)http://www.mtviggy.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/double_dutchess.jpgMath is hardhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/answer-sheet/files/2013/03/math.jpgPast Doesn’t Equal The Futurehttp://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash4/402800_10151021129543907_1273189465_n.jpgYou’re not hearing mehttp://farm3.staticflickr.com/2670/3948482669_93d49c1dc8_o.jpgAngry Tonyhttp://marcianitosverdes.haaan.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/TonyRobbins_thumb.jpgHolding you backhttp://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash4/p480x480/382197_426710810746267_1475892304_n.jpg

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